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  2. Surprised no one is posting about the nam. A fairly significant cooling at 850 with precip for nyc metro which yields a much snowier front end
  3. It’d help if we got away from name calling in politics...the level of discord and disrespect is at an all time high. While I don’t share the same views as either of them, your comment would have been better without the “fat cow” comment.
  4. Noticeably better Atlantic. Look at more favorable height orientation along EC.
  5. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=FTM KLWX IS EXPERIENCING CALIBRATION ERRORS THAT ARE CAUSING IT TO READ AROUND 20 TO 25 DBZ TOO LOW. TECHNICIANS ARE LOOKING INTO THE ISSUE AT THIS TIME. Talk about bad timing
  6. I should have worded it better. It really depends on the storm. So it's hard to know. Like @Jakkel138 said. A miller A coming up from the south tends to be better then a storm that is trying to redevelop off the coast for your area. Baltimore is further south but it's also further west. So it really can depend. Hard to know this far out.
  7. Beat me to it. But yet very impressive although probably wrong
  8. Notice where there's a sharp thermal gradient on the 850 map. Right along that boundary is where I think precip initially starts as snow then begins to mix as the 850s gradually move north into tomorrow. I think somebody in northern MD and southern PA will see a few if not several hours of frozen before changeover. At the surface you can see where the difference between dewpoints from the low 20s to the mid-upper 20s right along the Mason dixon line. As the precip moves in, the temperatures will cool down to the lower 30s for a few hours maybe even down to DC. Right now I'm seeing a coating from D.C to around 2 inches just north of the mason dixon line overnight. HRRR and the NAMs look mostly supportive of this idea. The current radar looks better than currently modeled. I think some sort of a surprise is coming. Areas that are already down to freezing will most likely see several hours of frozen.
  9. Being a vert of 28 years yuo can almost take this to the bank for NNJ, NW NJ, LHV. 30* freezing rain is worse than 32* freezing rain , 25* -28* yes is the worst but lets not underplay this scenario please like some are doing. .25" of ice iss erious for a region that doesn't experience such
  10. Great posts, and based on what I looked at a few days ago, largely agree. Blend the above with @PB GFI‘s teleconnection and I think it could be a wild ride love seeing the NAVGEM back in action! @33andrain
  11. Good post. Give me a nice WAA slug of precip from the south with a H over Quebec.
  12. This. MidAtlantic climo is very finicky a lot of years here and it relies mostly on a stout cold delivery from a blocking high to the north more than the northeast does. +PNA, a near perfect H5 low track with a N/S stream phase to keep the storm from gaining too much latitude. Our climo way different from New York. We do best with an archambault event/miller A down here.
  13. If anything good comes out of this.. at least we know schools will most likely have to close across the area for Tuesday! Better to be safe than sorry.
  14. Seeing your location. A little suppressed may actually benefit you if the storm were to track from say OBX to a bit east of the 40/70 Bench Mark. Feel like a lot of time your area does best with the more southeastern tracking storms. You don't need the storm to gain as much latitude as many on here do. You just need the cold air to hold and the system to not blow up till its off to your northeast.
  15. Looks like 84 stays snow. 287 could be in for some major ice accretion. Bedford Ossining up to Yorktown across Into rockland
  16. Today
  17. Variability will likely continue to define to weather into the closing week of December. As a result, much of the region could see additional snowfall through December 26, along with periodic intrusions of cold air. Whether the major cities see a 6" or greater snowstorm could depend, in large part, on the state of the teleconnections at the time of any storminess.   The first system will likely bring a light snowfall to the coastal plain and light to moderate snowfall to interior sections before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain during tomorrow into tomorrow night. This could be the kind of system that brings 2"-4" across northwestern New Jersey/northeastern Pennsylvania north and eastward to Albany. However, such locations as Islip, New York City, and Newark will likely pick up 1" or less snow.   That storm will be followed by a short but sharp shot of cold. Parts of the region could experience the lowest temperatures so far this season. New York City could see the lowest temperature approach 20° and perhaps one day where the high temperature remains below 30°.   Another window of opportunity could be available during the December 21-23 timeframe. During that time, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently forecast to be negative. However, some of the latest guidance now shows a weakly positive NAO.   Since 1950, 33% of storms that brought 4" or more snow during December 16-31 to just one city from among Philadelphia, New York City, or Boston had an AO- and 19% had an AO-/NAO-. However, from among the storms that brought 4" or more snow to at least two of those cities, 77% occurred with an AO- and 54% occurred with an AO-/NAO-.   Meanwhile, the temperature reached 51° in Anchorage on December 9. That set a new record high temperature for December and meteorological winter. The previous December record was 48° (December 1-2, 1992 and December 26, 1999). The previous record for meteorological winter was 50°, which was set on January 19, 1961 and tied on January 27, 2014.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20 and the recent cooling in Region 3.4 suggests that the base case remains viable.   The SOI was -14.90 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.037.   For the December 1-15 period, the AO had a preliminary average of +1.584. Since 1950, 13 years saw the AO average +1.000 or above for the first 15 days of December, which is very likely this year. Only 3 (23%) wound up with a colder than normal December in New York City (which appears likely at present). The most recent such case was December 1988 when New York City had a mean December temperature of 35.9°.   Following a December 1-15 average AO value of +1.000 or above, 85% of winters went on to record less than 30.0" seasonal snowfall in New York City and Newark. One notable exception was winter 2013-14 when 57.4" snow was recorded in New York City and 61.1" in Newark.   No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 24. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain relatively weak. Overall, the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the fourth week of December on the EPS.   On December 14, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.296 (RMM). The December 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.297.   Large differences between the EPS and GEFS persist beyond Day 10. The GEFS is notably colder than the EPS with much of North America and the Northern Hemisphere covered by cold anomalies. Both show the coldest anomalies over a portion of northern Asia. The colder idea has more often than not prevailed since late autumn.   When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms during the second half of December, the AO is highly important. Since 1950, December 16-31 has seen 15 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 73% occurred with an AO-. Further, 80% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the AO was negative. Even as the PNA and NAO had a lesser impact on the 4" or greater snowstorms, an NAO- was present in 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during that timeframe and a PNA+ was also present during 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms.   Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City.
  18. Really anywhere north of 84 has a solid argument to stay mostly if not all snow
  19. Looks like a pretty solid little snow event for us around the HV area
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