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Oh boy when the navgem matches the euro. That’s when I get interested... gfs is just useless.

Yes

Now that the GFS's idea that our Friday's system could potentially be a pattern change storm is all but dead, let's try the Euro's version. Except for a momentary lapse, the Euro has been keying on the potential this coming Monday for a week or so now. This is the setup leading into this storm on the overnight EPS. Typically this would be a high probability look for very meaningful impacts, potentially widespread, for in the East. But this winter so far, with such an active pattern where NS energy has been running interference, who's to say. But I would take this look any day of the week and e

The 30 to 40 hour precip ideas on the models have me thinking, overrunning then backside phase. Feb 03 ish ?

Morning gang. Long way to go, but this is about as classic of a signal for a significant winter storm threat as you will see on an ensemble mean at this lead time.

I realllly hope, AT THIS CURRENT TIME, that those eps are correct lol

I think it's because the EPS comes off Hatteras. The GEFS takes a more direct route, doesn't dig as much and comes off the Delmarva. So it's just quicker.

The Euro has a tendency to run slow so I would lean more on the GFS timing wise but we'll see.

The GFS is full day faster than the Euro. 40 hours of precip.

Does the 18z only go to hr90 as well?

Alot to digest here over the next 2-3 days. The overnight Euro was impressive but I am not ready to completely bite yet.

Gfs is still disorganized and north. Way different than the other models.

Like 7’ish, eps at 8. But the 6z op only goes out to 90, eps to 144

Well the forum members along the coast certainly will not like the 06z GFS including myself.

Looks like some timing differences among the models. Some have the storm starting on Sunday while others have it starting on Monday. Those timing differences should get resolved over the next 2-3 days as long as the storm doesn't get suppressed to our south.

Curious for sure then

Eps goes out to 144

Sits and spins

Oh ok..not in range quiiite yet..thanks

Goes out to 90 hours

You know what time the 6z EURO comes out?

6z Para Some of that snow to the north is from today

Btw FWIW..especially for @George..the 0z NAVY went full beast mode

Much better transfer of the secondary, down by va beach/OBX, then heads north east from there.