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  1. Today
  2. IMO, it should move into an extended period of testing that lasts into the winter to better assess whether its documented cold bias and excessive snowfall issues have been resolved. Until then, I don’t believe it should replace the GFS.
  3. It was so nice out today now here comes the unsettled weather. Hope we can get some nice consistent weather soon. I started a new job and haven’t been on here as much. Hope you all are doing great!
  4. Confirmed tornado in Reston, VA tonight. Will be an EF0 or EF1. Same cell tracked near my location. No tornado damage by me
  5. Earlier today, the temperature soared to 80° in New York City. That was New York City's first 80° temperature since the mercury topped out at 80° on October 10, 2018. Last year, the City had its first 80° reading on April 13. Since 2000, only 2000 and 2014 saw no 80° temperatures in April.   Even as the temperature reached the warmest levels so far this year, a storm was bringing severe thunderstorms and heavy rain to the Southeast. Overnight and tomorrow, that storm will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to the New York City area. Some locally higher amounts are possible, especially to the west of I-95. Readings should remain above average. Based on sensitivity analysis, there is an implied probability of 64% that New York City will pick up 1.00" or more rain.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -17.59 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.712.   The closing 7-10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 91%. There is also an implied 67% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 54% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.   On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.927 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 16-adjusted figure of 0.752. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 36 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.   Within the next day or so, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.
  6. Wind has picked up quite a bit here, had a heavy rain shower move thru about 20 mins ago. Current temp 70
  7. Yesterday
  8. Today, the temperature reached 80° in Central Park for the first time this year. Last year, the temperature hit 82° on April 13. Today's high temperature was the warmest reading in New York City since October 10, 2018 when the temperature also hit 80°.
  9. Haven’t been on here in a while, but currently 68/63. Tornado Watch till 12 AM. The instability is limited here under 1K j/kg so the question is can the storms still produce damaging winds or a tornado given the shear. It’s going to be raining till 5 PM, so that reduces our window for sun to just 3 hours. In the SLGT risk here.
  10. Total steam bath in Manhattan right now. Building up some good low level cape. Things should fire later
  11. As of 12:30 pm, EDT, Atlanta had picked up 3.31" rain today (storm total: 3.40"). That smashed the previous daily record of 1.45", which was set in 1940. As the day goes on, the rain should spread northward and eastward into the New York City region. Farther south, severe thunderstorms are very likely in parts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia. Some of those locations could experience tornadoes. In New York City (Central Park) and adjacent suburbs, it still appears that 0.50"-1.50" rain will fall. Western New Jersey and parts of southeastern New York State could pick up locally higher amounts. Across Upstate New York, northern Vermont, northern Maine, and parts of Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City, widespread amounts of 1.50"-2.50" with locally higher figures are likely. Parts of that region will likely experience flooding on account of the much above normal snowfall that had occurred this winter. Through yesterday, Caribou, which had received 164.7" snow this winter (3rd highest on record) had a 6" snowcover. Annual precipitation to date was 12.36", which was 3.33" above normal.
  12. **Hurricane Michael upgraded to a Category 5 at time of U.S. landfall** Tropical Cyclone Report: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf Some interesting excerpts: "Re-construction of the instrument’s raw brightness temperatures during the dropout period by the NOAA AOC indicates that the maximum 10-second SFMR wind estimate was 152 kt near 1707 UTC. The SFMR winds support an intensity greater than 135 kt, especially if the 152-kt value is correct and uncontaminated by wave shoaling in water about 89 ft deep. However, there is a significant caveat regarding the SFMR data, as experience during Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria in 2017 suggests the possibility that the SFMR has a high bias at the wind speeds in question. Research to determine if this is the case is currently underway." "An objective analysis of the KEVX data using the GBVTD technique (not shown) suggests maximum winds of near 160 kt at 3 km during the last few hours before landfall, which would yield surface winds of 135–140 kt using the NHC reconnaissance adjustments. However, the winds in this analysis were notably lower than the 152-kt flight-level wind and the subjectively analyzed winds from radar in the southeastern eyewall. The quality of this analysis is questionable due to apparent issues in the automated GBVTD technique properly locating the center of Michael, which is critical to the wind analysis. There is also similar uncertainty produced by the maximum wind location relative to the radar site mentioned above for the subjective analysis."
  13. Yeah. I just saw that. About time. There was no doubt about that at all. The damage was unfathomable.
  14. Shower with strong winds currently in wantagh. Looks like the winds are effectively mixing down
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