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Regarding hospitalizations this has been confusing from the outset and I don’t understand why Cuomo doesn’t clear it up; the graphic says “currently hospitalized.” Meaning people in hospital beds as of that time. Therefore it can only mean one thing, that the true number of new patients admitted is the net change in “currently hospitalized” plus the amount discharged. Otherwise if they were net even or even net negative like yesterday how could the daily “currently hospitalized” increase every single day. It also doesn’t fit the picture on the ground. Way more people are coming in than going out (but that’s a side point). - Today
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One more post tonight partially in honor of Worldometers adding testing data, which is great; now they just need to add columns for percent growth rate in cases and deaths per 1M. In comparing countries, looking at data normalized on a per capita basis is the only way to compare apples to apples for the most part. When looking at that, the US doesn't look nearly as bad as the worst countries, like Italy and Spain or even France and several other European countries. However, most of those countries are further along in their outbreaks and are seeing deaths per day leveling off, shile our deaths per day are still climbing significantly - we had nearly 1500 yesterday, but if we stay under 2000 per day, we'll remain at less than half the per capita death rate of Italy and Spain. That's the glass half-full perspective and in that scenario one could imagine seeing 40-50K US deaths before we're well into a decline in maybe 3-4 weeks. The glass half empty view is if we do even worse, reaching Italy/Spain numbers and maybe ending up with 100K or more deaths before we're well into a decline. No matter what though, as I've been saying since late February on the RU board and since 3/7 here (post below), we look absolutely horrible against South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and a few others (and China, but I still don't trust their numbers), but South Korea is the most painful example, since we saw them have a major outbreak in late February and largely control it by early March and the playbook was obvious and fairly similar to China's without the draconian lockdown, featuring aggressive early testing, aggressive contact tracing/quarantining, and aggressive social distancing and mask wearing in public. If we had followed SK's model and ended up obtaining similar results of 3 deaths per 1M or even double that, we could have ended up with 1000-2000 deaths (although SK can't claim total victory until there is a cure/vaccine, as they could always have a major relapse, but I doubt it). And that makes me really sad and angry. Numerous public health experts in the US knew that's what we should be pursuing, but our leadership failed at every turn, particularly on fixing the testing problem in mid-February and doing nothing to prepare our health care system for the coming onslaught (and yes, it was a bipartisan debacle 20 years in the making, but we should have started doing far more over a month ago). Instead the Administration downplayed the coming epidemic and failed to do much beyond the travel ban on 2/2 (after 300K Chinese had traveled to the US in January). I love the technical and pharma innovations we're seeing (enabled by suspending FDA regs by the Administration), but so far we have no good treatments in place (despite claims to the contrary - if we had something great, our death rates would be lower given the numbers on HCQ); my guess is our one medical hope in the next 1-2 months is the antibody-plasma therapy that's underway with some very promising early results and maybe that could pay off soon if the promise is confirmed. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries -
I don't know if this is true, but I think it could be plausible. What if we had 5K cases by the end of January, 50K cases by the end of February (with maybe a few hundred deaths in Jan/Feb being erroneously ascribed to flu) and we now have 1,000,000 cases today, actually, (not 245K) given that we're still not testing enough in many locations meaning we might have 5-10X more cases in many locations, such that NY wouldn't be such an outlier anymore (and maybe NY was a bit earlier, which is why it has more deaths, but that other areas will catch up soon)? Is that kooky crazy? Having a hard time reconciling so much conflicting data, probably because our data is crap. Truly need to know the real infection rate in the population and we're only going to get that by doing a lot of antibody tests in a fairly large representative subpopulation in somewhere like NY.
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Disagree for one big reason. With so many people self-quarantined, the rates of crime, car accidents, traffic issues, etc., that cops spend a lot of time on, are way, way down, so the police ought to have the bandwidth to nip any civil unrest in the bud quickly, IMO. I also just don't think we're going to see the complete breakdown of the hospital systems they've seen in Italy. Yes, things are very tough right now, especially on the PPE/ventilator front, but not on the bed/staff front, as far as I can tell, given that the NY and NYC new case rates both have just about leveled off. I am confused by one thing, though in the NY stats (my bullets from today and the graphics from today are below). They've been showing new hospitalizations at 1200-1400 per day the past few days and they've been showing 1200-1400 hospital discharges per day the past few days, which look like similar numbers, which was making me think the ins minus the outs was near zero, so the net number of people hospitalized would be mostly unchanged. However, they're also reporting that the total number of people hospitalized has been increasing by that 1200-1400 per day. I'm now wondering if that "New Hospitalizations" graphic is the net growth rate of hospitalizations each day not "new" hospitalizations, meaning my part in italics, below is wrong. So if total hospitalizations is growing by 1200-1400 per day, then yeah, that's problem and we could get to 20-30K hospitalized in the next week, unless the new case rate starts to decrease and/or more people are discharged. Anyone? 102.8K, 92.3K, 83.7K, 75.7K, 66.5K positive cases in NY the last 5 days, meaning 10.5K, 8.6K, 8.0K, 9.2K new cases the past four days in NY and 57.1K, 51.8K, 47.4K, 43.1K, 38.0K in NYC the last 5 days, meaning 5.3K, 4.4K, 4.3K, 5.1K new cases the past four days in NYC. Total of 14.8K currently hospitalized in NY vs. 13.4K yesterday (1400 new vs. 1200 new yesterday and 1300 new the day before). 8886 discharged from hospitals in NY (7434 as of yesterday, so 1452 discharged yesterday vs. 1292 the day before; good sign. "Note that new hospitalization rate has been pretty close to the discharge rate for a few days, which is good news."
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born? The Second Coming (William Butler Yeats 1865-1939) -
Out of the 11 million masks a month , 4 million are made here. 3M is a US Domiciled business and just enjoyed a huge tax repatriation holiday. They operate under the protection of the US. So yes, those should come back. Again, if you're lobbying to have much needed PPE s get shipped around the world 1st and your argument is predicated on well the POTUS should just force other companies to take up the slack, you lose me. GM couldn't flip their plants fast enough so in stepped F and GE. USA 1st, the others can go to other Chinese manufacturers and buy PPEs -
But Mr. Navarro was referring not just to those manufactured in the U.S.: Navarro said he’d experienced issues making sure 3M products manufactured around the world were “coming back here to the right places.” -
Canada and close allies are free to sign their own DPA as well as buy from China India or Mexico etc. I can't justify sending US manufactured PPE anywhere but the US 1st.
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agreed. The facts are in plain sight. The spin machine can’t change this one, the body bags tell the story. -
I don’t believe that allowing close allies such as Canada who purchased PPEs to receive them will lead to the demise of the nation. Indeed, if it would, then the structural rot is so advanced that the nation would literally be a single shock away from its collapse. As noted previously, early and effective use of the DPA would have been better. The federal government should have required GM, etc., to produce set quantities of ventilators by fixed dates with material financial consequences for missing deadlines. Since the DPA was invoked regarding GM there’s no reports (company or the media) that even one ventilator has been manufactured. The DPA should have been invoked for other firms to produce PPEs, again with quantities, deadlines, and consequences. How it is invoked matters. Had all this been done weeks ago as Governors Cuomo, DeWine, etc., wanted, there might be no need for a vicious zero sum fight for PPEs, etc.
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That would require leadership from the government, something that is ill afforded due the current structure said government. -
My major thinking was that choices have consequences and that one cannot sever this relationship. An overly reactive approach that deemphasizes or ignores consequences is often a bad one. I strongly suspect that the lack of thought for what a pandemic might actually mean led to an overly slow response that further aggravated the years of neglect in building and maintaining the national stockpile. The latter situation is the result of policy choices made across multiple Administrations. What if policy had been more proactive? What if different choices had been made following the “near misses” with H1N1 and Ebola? What if the emerging coronavirus pandemic were treated as a serious risk and full national mobilization were launched back in January? What if the nation had mass produced and mass tested, isolated infected persons, etc.? It’s not an extreme position to suggest that maybe the U.S. would be in a position closer to that of South Korea than Italy or Spain.
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Don, we can't have it both ways. We can't scream that we don't have enough PPE here yet let others eat while our workers starve. We have been a caretaker and world policeman of the world for 80 years. I am sorry, there's a shotgun wound to this nation and bandaides will not fix it. We will be the 1st to help the world once again when we can. Right now we need to help the homeland or this great experiment will cease to exist.
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My point is that there are trade offs, including some potentially bad ones, involved in a free for all. Even as the pandemic worsens, one needs to begin looking ahead to the post-pandemic world. Choices made today will shape tomorrow’s world, much as those following World War I created a situation that might have made the second one more likely than might otherwise have been the case. Policy can’t always be reactive. The disproportionate element of a reactive policy may well have contributed to a slow overall response until the pandemic had visibly exploded into view on the American shores. Policy makers might not like it, but even now an important obligation entails addressing the post-pandemic world in a fashion that does not severely weaken the American position. Of course, business as usual would put this process off and leave the nation largely as a “prisoner of fate.”
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Franky 5 angels changed their profile photo
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IDK why I quoted this lol. And I can't delete on mobile. He can use Customs to not allow them through. He can also deploy military. Ahem. And civil unrest/international unrest. YES
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We have spent Trillions keeping all of Europe safe since 1945. We have proven our friendship.
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When are people going to get this through their heads, this POTUS although insane , campaigned, ran and has Governed to this very point. America 1st and that we are too dependent on China and cheap labor for our very security. The paradigm has changed. It has too.
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No this is the crux of the article. Sorry, I have no issues with this.
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I propose that China forgives the notional amount of the debt that the FEB compiles bailing out the US Economy.
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I think one of don’s @donsutherland1 points might be how it was handled not necessarily that these companies shouldn’t be making supplies for the US first. trump at first refused to invoke the DPA and now, well, weeks into it he has? Or hasn’t he? and Now everyone is left confused and frustrated
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Long Range Pattern Drivers & Evolution Thread
donsutherland1 replied to Snowy Hibbo's topic in Forecasting and Discussion
As the a strong ocean storm responsible for today's overcast and occasionally rainy conditions begins to move away from the region, milder conditions will develop tomorrow. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s early next week. Cooler air could return near April 10. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution, especially as the NAO could remain predominantly negative through mid-month. There is some ensemble support for the NAO to go positive after mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -16.08 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.098. On April 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.331 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.185. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. -
Don, when the masks drop in an airplane they tell the adults to put theirs on 1st. You're no good if you're dead. The US has to care about the US. It's one of those times that we have to save ourselves.
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The fourth turning? -
If the reports in the hyperlinked article are accurate, the U.S. will suffer further damage in its foreign relations: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/03/ppe-world-supplies-coronavirus-163955
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Valley Forge Normandy Apollo 11 Cold War win Killing of Bin Laden A turning point is coming. I promise you.
