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  2. Temperatures near sunrise included: Bridgeport: 79° Farmingdale: 80° Islip: 80° New York City-JFK: 80° New York City-LGA: 88° New York City-NYC: 82° Newark: 80° White Plains: 77° Sunrise
  3. Today
  4. Yesterday, Boston had a low temperature of 80°. That is only the 11th such minimum temperature on record for Boston. Records go back to 1872. The frequency of such minimum temperatures has increased in recent decades and 45%of such days have occurred from 2000 and afterward: 1970s: 2 days 1980s: 0 days 1990s: 2 days 2000s: 1 day 2010s: 4 days   Internationally, Beijing had a daily record high temperature today of 104°. That broke the previous record of 98°, which was set in 1983. Today, numerous daily record high minimum temperatures could be set. However, a lot will depend on whether areas receive a cooling thunderstorm late in the day or this evening.
  5. Sorry I don’t have much to say in accordance with the Northern Hemisphere and the ENSO situation (which in my view is very “all over the shop”). But I am currently tracking some interesting developments in terms of snowfall down in SE Australia. But more importantly for this thread, some interesting teleconnections between positive Andes mountain torque and a disturbance of the SH Polar Vortex. A cycle of driver changes that is causing a -AAO shift later in August IMO. Just to elaborate on that cycle of driver changes, watch the development of the planetary wave, as momentum is ploughed into the Andes (black line) and comes out westward of the mountain range. This is what we call mountain torque Now to watch the stratospheric influences of the positive Andes Mountain Torque. Now we just rely on stratospheric-tropospheric interaction, which I touch on briefly in the blog. We should see propagation because of a more solid upper-mid strat disturbance. Which works better with the flow of the current relationship of the strat-tropo, compared to the disturbance associated with the -AAO earlier in the month. Blog post here with more on this event and other drivers for the SH. Now just to have a look at the positive Andes Mountain Torque event itself. Plumes of westerly momentum come out into the Southern Atlantic, with downstream blocking a key part of +MT events. But the key thing to look at from a tropospheric level is the troughing over the Andes, indicating the mountain torque. Another thing to note is the block pushing from behind the South American Continent. And that will bring us a rise in the AAM, via tropical to extratropical teleconnections and momentum transports. And along with other NH mountain torques. My forecast being the black line beyond the original chart heading towards August. Nothing precise or anything, just noting the trend here.
  6. 84 in dunellen at 12:15 am Central air is at 78 and not budging lower. My friend is having a huge bbq tomorrow told him to expect everyone in his house all day lol
  7. I was at the Yankees game today. It was so hot my buddies and I could only do like first -third innings then had to move to shade. So hot!!
  8. Update on the Historic Heat of June 2019 in France. Météo-France reported: During the heat wave of the end of June 2019, the old maximum temperature record in France of 44.1 ° C observed in Conqueyrac in the Gard on August 12, 2003 was beaten several times. Many stations have measured exceptional values. 45.9 ° C were thus noted on June 28 in Gallargues-le-Montueux in Gard. These values come from the network of automatic stations operated by Météo-France in real time... Météo-France also collects data observed by the State Climatological Network (RCE). This includes about 800 manual temperature stations, held by volunteer observers who send their observations with a few days' notice. Among all these observations, a maximum temperature value of 46.0 ° C was found in Vérargues (34), less than 10 km from the automatic station of Gallargues-le-Montueux . http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/74345599-c-est-officiel-on-a-atteint-les-46-c-en-france-en-juin 46.0°C is 114.8°F.
  9. Weather station read over 100 for three straight hours here (12-3pm). Sun kind of polluting it. High was 106. Heat index 121.
  10. another 80 degree minimum day for Newark and NYC...80 degree minimums are becoming more frequent... min/max.......dates... 81/90......7/03/1876 81/90......7/19/1878 80/95......7/07/1883 80/94......7/25/1885 81/91......8/11/1891 82/98......8/09/1896 80/94......8/10/1896 81/96......8/11/1896 81/95......7/18/1900 80/95......6/30/1901 82/100....7/02/1901 80/96......7/18/1905 80/95......7/19/1905 80/92......8/11/1905 80/87......7/23/1906 80/94......8/06/1906 80/90......7/05/1908 81/95......7/06/1908 84/93......7/07/1908 81/93......8/05/1908 80/87......8/06/1908 82/94......8/13/1908 84/93......8/14/1908 82/100....7/31/1917 82/98......8/01/1917 80/96......8/06/1918 82/104....8/07/1918 81/94......7/20/1930 80/98......8/02/1933 81/100....6/26/1952 80/95......7/16/1952 80/101....7/22/1957 81/95......7/23/1978 82/102....7/21/1980 80/96......8/08/1980 80/95......8/09/1980 80/95......8/15/1985 80/94......8/12/1988 80/99......8/14/1988 81/97......8/15/1988 80/100....7/08/1993 80/102....7/10/1993 84/102....7/15/1995 82/102....7/05/1999 83/101....7/06/1999 82/103....8/09/2001 82/95......7/03/2002 81/96......7/04/2002 80/95......7/30/2002 80/98......8/13/2002 80/99......8/13/2005 83/97......8/02/2006 81/103....7/06/2010 80/100....7/07/2010 80/97......7/24/2010 84/104....7/22/2011 83/100....7/23/2011 82/94......7/20/2015 80/96......7/23/2016 81/96......8/13/2016 81/92......8/29/2018 82/95......7/20/2019 ................................................................................. Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days... min/max...date... 80/97.....7/17/1968 80/90.....7/24/1972 80/97.....8/03/1975 80/98.....7/23/1978 81/101...7/21/1980 80/98.....7/09/1981 80/94.....7/10/1981 80/100...7/18/1982 80/98.....7/19/1982 80/98.....7/16/1983 80/97.....8/15/1985 80/95.....8/12/1988 80/98.....8/14/1988 81/99.....8/15/1988 82/105...7/08/1993 83/104...7/09/1993 84/105...7/10/1993 80/99.....7/11/1993 80/97.....7/12/1993 82/104...7/15/1995 81/103...7/05/1999 82/102...7/06/1999 80/99.....8/01/1999 82/101...8/08/2001 82/98.....7/03/2002 81/100...7/04/2002 81/96.....7/30/2002 80/102...8/13/2005 81/100...8/02/2006 80/101...8/03/2006 80/98.....6/28/2010 81/103...7/06/2010 82/99.....7/24/2010 86/108...7/22/2011 86/102...7/23/2011 82/100...7/19/2013 80/97.....7/20/2015 80/98.....7/23/2016 80/97.....8/14/2016 80/99.....7/20/2019 ....................................................
  11. I suspect somewhere in the eastern CONUS will likely see a round of very high temperatures in August. The possibility of readings that surpass those of this weekend would exist if the pattern evolves as I suspect it could.
  12. Yesterday
  13. Always appreciate these posts Don. In June Europe had the intense heat and eventually that heat came into the US. Do you believe this round of heat in Europe could affect us in a few weeks? It would coincide with your mid August warm up? I know you have been on the 1993 late season heat for a while.
  14. An oppressive day concluded with widespread readings at or above 95° in the East. Select high temperatures from the eastern third of North America included:   Allentown: 95° Atlantic City: 99° (old record: 97°, 1991) Baltimore: 100° Bangor: 93° Burlington: 94° Boston: 97° Chicago: 95° Cleveland: 95° Concord: 96° Detroit: 96° Harrisburg: 97° Hartford: 98° Islip: 97° (tied record set in 1997) Lynchburg: 98° Montreal: 91° New York City-JFK: 99° (old record: 96°, 1991 and 2013) New York City-LGA: 99° New York City-NYC: 95° Newark: 98° Norfolk: 100° Ottawa: 93° Philadelphia: 97° Poughkeepsie: 96° Raleigh: 95° Richmond: 98° Roanoke: 99° Saint John, New Brunswick: 91° (old record: 86°, 1991) Salisbury: 96° Sterling: 98° Toronto: 90° Trenton: 96° Wallops Island: 98° (old record: 94°, 1991 and 2010) Washington, DC: 97° Wilmington, DE: 96°   Tomorrow will feature additional intense heat. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could again see high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew point figures above 75°.   Following this weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. Already, some locations in France recorded temperatures in the 90s today. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week.   Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied >99% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 84% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.7°-65.3°.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was -2.83 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.206. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.   Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.   On July 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.159 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.140. That is the 17th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 17 consecutive days was July 6-24, 2004 (19 consecutive days).   As had been signaled by the MJO, the second half of July is experiencing a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings that had developed during the first half of the month in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.   Much of the region is in the midst of a heat wave or on the cusp of one. Baltimore has now had 9 consecutive 90° or above days and Washington DC has had 10 consecutive 90° or above days. Peak temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic region have included: Baltimore: 100°; Boston: 97°; Islip: 97°; New York City: JFK-99°, LGA-99°, NYC-95°; Newark: 98°; Philadelphia 97°; and, Washington, DC: 97°.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 85%. Most likely range: 77.8°-79.9° (1.3° to 3.4° above normal).
  15. Topped out at 99 here. With the humidity was very impressive. We have hotter dry heat, but not when this humid. Maybe we sneak in 100 tomorrow.
  16. Also interesting seeing the NAM print out 100 tomorrow, since that model has run cold lately.
  17. Yeah, we get a higher launching point. Clouds may temper that, but I am wondering if clouds are "GFS BS" clouds, as it has been overdoing convection in the high CAPE/no trigger environment.
  18. 96.3F. Very hot/oppressive day. Tomorrow has potential to be slightly hotter with a higher launch pad.
  19. I had clouds today from 9-1130. It kept us at 86 at 9am to only 87 at 11am. Killed my chance and I think we only got to 94. Yesterday we got 94 but a 110 HEat index
  20. The slight breeze and and clouds prevented ewr from reaching 100
  21. Down to 97 from a high of 98. HI 116. Tomorrow looks like the hottest day down here as dews should be a little lower and the clouds from the northwest should dissipate under the high pressure before they get here.
  22. We have a shot, we'll have a higher launching point. The problem is we'll have to deal with more clouds. That's why I always liked today better.
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