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  2. If the 18z GFS is right we are headed for some wet/active times beginning early next week. April could wind up being a very wet month.
  3. Today
  4. Yup. I am still questioning if we will have a warm spring after seeing this.
  5. I don't know about all that. Analogs I've seen, at least for April, appear fairly normal in the east. They do agree with the cool Plains idea, but they're real warm out towards the Rockies and West Coast. That's for April only, but I don't see a real warm spring either way. Hard to go real warm in spring when soil moisture is so high and a generally wet pattern looks to continue. Generally, our warmest springs have come after dry winters.
  6. HP off the coast? Then yeah. The CPC is all aboard for a really warm spring. Moderate El Niño + -SOI + -NOI= This:
  7. It’s actually warmer today than yesterday on the south shore as the flow is offshore now. Living right by the water means raw early springs. Meanwhile in Vermont the snow pack at my house (share house) isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. 6” this weekend on top of 12” of the densest glacier I have ever experienced. It’s been wall to wall snow pack since November so all the winter rain was absorbed.
  8. GFS now showing what the euro showed for next week a few days ago. Probably won't happen but thats a strong HP For april
  9. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) The AMO is an ongoing series of long duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1°F between extremes. These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years. The AMO has affected air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe. It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. (Source: NOAA) Several sources of data are available in graphical or monthly values from 1856 to date. Here is an example of both the graphical output available from the multi-organisational collaborative website "The State of the Ocean Climate" (involving NOAA) and the monthly data values available in tabular format from the NOAA/ERSL/PSD website: Link to graphical output: https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php Link to tabular data output: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/
  10. The snow that morning stuck to the roads as it came down very heavy and it remains the latest I have ever experienced accumulating snowfall in my lifetime.
  11. Yesterday
  12. A springlike day prevailed across much of the region today. Select high temperatures included: Allentown: 61°; Atlantic City: 62°; Baltimore: 65°; Harrisburg: 62°; New York City: 60°; Newark: 62°; Philadelphia: 62°; and, Washington, DC: 66°. However, readings were locked into the 50s on much of Long Island and the south shore of Connecticut.   Cooler weather is likely over the next few days. However, temperatures could rebound sharply as the week nears an end. The rise in temperatures will occur just as baseball season is commencing. Fans in Boston, New York (Yankees and possibly the Mets, too), and Boston could have a lot to look forward to.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.70°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.   The SOI was +4.74 today. With the SOI going positive, precipitation across the southern tier of the United States could grow less frequent in the medium-term.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.345. The AO has now been positive for 45 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.   On March 23, the MJO moved into Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.784 (RMM). The amplitude was higher than the March 22-adjusted figure of 0.579. The MJO could re-emerge at a high amplitude (amplitude of 1.000) or above in Phase 6 in the next day or two.   Even as the prospect of measurable snowfall has largely disappeared, Central Park could see a low temperature of 32° or below next week. That could be New York City's last freeze of winter 2018-19. There is some ensemble support for a measurable snowfall in portions of New England during the first ten days of April. However, the guidance at that timeframe has generally been poor this season.
  13. Looks like the GFS is showing a wet start to April with plenty of precipitation possible.
  14. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value. (Description courtesy of NOAA and Mantua 1999). Several sources of data are available in graphical or monthly values from 1854 to date. Here is an example of both the graphical and tabular output available from the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, a research collaboration between the University of Washington (UW) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Link to graphical output: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/graphics.html Link to tabular data values: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt Link to NOAA graphics and data: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
  15. I batted right handed but went to right field a lot...I hit like Derek Jeter before he was born...less power though...the first ball ever hit to me was a line drive that I lost in the lights...my fielding went down hill from there...I was great on cement though and no one could beat me in stickball...we played in McKinley School yard...The triangle park on 77St...Shallow School Yard...It used to be stickball all day long when I was in my mid teens...we had a few April snowfalls over the years...red means significant...1965, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1982, 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2014, 2018...
  16. I received 3 inches on APRIL 19 1983 where I used to live in Queens and that was the closest I have come to doing that.
  17. Classic early spring coming up. Few mild days. Few chilly days here and there. Few days with chilly rain sprinkled in. Seasons in seasons.
  18. You must be a lefty lol.....It sucked playing the OF when another game was being played on the field behind you. Still holding out the slimmest of hopes for one more measurable snow event, even if it's only a dusting/coating. Anything more is gravy at this stage.
  19. Gfs isn’t warm in the long range with multiple snow chances. Unreal, let everyday be like today please
  20. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Negative values coincide with El Nino events and postive values with La Nina. Data is available in graphical or monthly values from 1951 to date. Here is an example of both the graphical and tabular output: Link to graphical output: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/soi/ Link to tabular data values: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/soi
  21. 114” which seems like a lot but is slightly below average and we had 160” last year. Looks like it’s pretty much over which is fine by me. Time to !
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