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Showing most liked content since 08/26/2021 in all areas

  1. test1
    Here's an email I just sent out to all of our mets here...slightly re-purposed but not much because I'm too tired to: Just wanted to comment on a trend I'm noticing on guidance with Ida's remnants and how it may affect the rain, tornado, and gusty wind potential... Here is the NAM 500mb trend at 12z Wednesday over the last few runs: The trend is for Ida to be slightly more negatively tilted, with the ridging in front of it a bit stronger. However, heights over northern New England aren't really changing much, that trough is holding fairly firm. Here ar
    19 likes
  2. test1
    I had to walk home from work. There were no ubers, taxis, buses, etc, running, and I didn't drive today. On my walk home, I literally almost got swept away by waters. I lost textbooks, my watch, and my cellphone, but I am alive.
    16 likes
  3. test1
    It begins.
    13 likes
  4. test1
    convection wins. the models routinely show too little activity near the warm front
    13 likes
  5. test1
    I am really hoping for an early start to winter similar to last year. I like when we see at least one significant/major snowfall in December (particularly before Christmas).
    10 likes
  6. test1
    It’s coming.
    10 likes
  7. test1
    Had 9” of rain just last weekend to get another 5” plus of rain just 10 days later is pretty absurd
    10 likes
  8. test1
    While potentially historic major hurricane Ida is getting ready to make landfall be prepared for its remnants to come up here and bring a widespread multi inch rain event to the already soaked region. Flooding will be the story Wednesday and Thursday.
    10 likes
  9. 9 likes
  10. test1
    Ben Noll breaking out the big guns with the persistent early SSW signal. Woof.
    9 likes
  11. test1
    Looks cloudy down there today.
    9 likes
  12. test1
    Maybe in the future we shut down highways like we do for blizzards? Food for thought. The times they are a changing...
    9 likes
  13. test1
    it shows the max amounts along the warm front which i completely agree with
    9 likes
  14. test1
    I know, fantasy range…. But you have to love seeing this in October. Rainy windswept coastal storm pulling the Canadian air toward the border.
    8 likes
  15. 8 likes
  16. test1
    Feel we are extremely “lucky” this didn’t come in 3-4 hours earlier. Carnage and loss of life and property would have been worse
    8 likes
  17. test1
    I think PTC Ida’s impacts on metro are arguably worse than either Irene and Floyd now that weve seen some of the aftermath…. Insane how high the death toll is getting
    8 likes
  18. test1
    Looking at Mullica, I’m thinking F4. Obviously the experts need to do their thing, but this is not an F2 imo. At least F3 if not higher.
    8 likes
  19. test1
    Rain is beginning to exit the region. Im close to 5 inches of rain. By sunrise dew points should be well into the 50s and clouds should be parting the region. Hopefully the weather remains quiet the next few weeks. We need a break.
    8 likes
  20. test1
    @CCB! has been all over the severe and flooding threat for days. !!!!!
    8 likes
  21. test1
    Localized 10-14"? That's a solid MECS right there! ... Oh.
    8 likes
  22. test1
    Haven't seen much discussion about next week, but there's been some pretty significant changes on modeling in the last day or so. This is one of those situations where you can't just forecast based off of H5 maps. Despite a very anomalous upper level ridge over the East, that surface high in Northern New England continues to trend stronger and stronger on modeling. Could see quite an onshore flow develop, and stave away what would be a pretty hot and humid few days early week.
    7 likes
  23. test1
    i can't get the image to embed so here's my tweet
    7 likes
  24. test1
    It's going to have to be brought to the table IMO.
    7 likes
  25. test1
    But I hear you, communicating potential catastrophic impacts is not an easy thing to do in the world of weather apps that tell you "it's going to rain a lot" w/a flash flood watch icon.
    7 likes
  26. test1
    We traveled from Astoria, Queens to Kew Gardens around 1 am last night, in trying to avoid the worst of the historic deluge, I strongly believe only divine intervention got us home and Im someone who detests exaggeration. At least 4 or 5 times we , literally had to swerve into severe flooding on local streets because there were cars stranded and abandoned in the middle of the street. Prayers went up as soon as we went into those mini lakes that were on average a foot to a foot and half deep . It is a mistake that will NEVER be made again- EVER. Reason we made it through was because w
    7 likes
  27. test1
    This is going to be up there with Sandy in regards to the flooding and the amount of damage in many parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.
    7 likes
  28. test1
    This is a crazy sounding for NYC this evening on the 3km NAM.. Look at the hodograph.
    7 likes
  29. test1
    New Orleans has suffered a "catastrophic" loss of power. The entire city is without electricity according to media & power company reports.
    7 likes
  30. test1
    Been exposing my 6 year old son to more and more of this hobby/passion (profession for many of you). Looking through satellite imageries and radars and the like, looking at Twitter feeds, and NHC advisories - he put it together and asked if anyone would die from this. I hesitated but was honest and said it was nearly certain, and the real question was how many. It was a sobering exchange and just personifies the beauty AND fury of it all. Regardless, my thoughts are with anyone who has family or friends in the path
    7 likes
  31. test1
    As storms get more powerful. As the fires rage, the ice melts and the water runs dry - we all best be prepared for the climate refugees and think hard about where we live. It’s truly one of the reasons why I moved when and where I did. Prayers up for those in Ida’s path, especially those who lack the means to get out of her way - or perhaps worse, those who lack the family and friends in their lives willing, able or even here on Earth, to help them.
    7 likes
  32. test1
    @Jack Sillin is simultaneously discussing this point on Twitter.
    7 likes
  33. test1
    Agree. Convection continues to fire in and around the eyewall & efficiently wrap up shear. This will further encapsulate the core & the system will likely become more symmetric from a broader view by tonight/tomorrow morning. This should be especially true post DMAX as it traverses the boiling waters of that eddy.
    7 likes
  34. test1
    Disagree. In the last hour alone, the eye has all but cleared out and convective towers continue to blossom and wrap around the core. This is clearly a much more formidable storm than it was this morning.
    7 likes
  35. test1
    The location of the cutoff ULL being further NE at hr 192 here would at face value, keep the prospects of a direct landfall away from the Mid-Atlantic, but perhaps increase the chance of a slingshot into New England. There's no point in getting caught up in those details on a day 8 op look. Point being though, I think with such a strong ridge rolling over the top across Canada into the NATL like that is going to make a lot of people queasy next week. It's going to come down to the amplitude of, and how fast that ridge rolls over, because that'll dictate how early the tr
    6 likes
  36. test1
    Indeed, next weekend's trough has trended stronger and will feel more autumn like autumn - right on time with astro Autumn. Fine by me, I'll be in the mountains anyway.
    6 likes
  37. test1
    It def seems like you could historically rely on a cold front coming through to reset things for a while... Not so much these past few years. When it does happen, it's almost nostalgic, lol.
    6 likes
  38. test1
    This last picture is where I was when I almost drowned and decided to turn around. (I did not take the picture... I found it later).
    6 likes
  39. test1
    I traveled from Rockland County to JFK Airport during the peak. I wasn't driving. I was genuinely petrified. Zero visibility at times and many parts were flooded. We had the tornado warning while we were on the Deegan and I saw the tornado velocities in the area we were driving into. We made it in one piece. Highways were flooded, but still passable. It was crazy. Driver got a big tip.
    6 likes
  40. test1
    It makes sense to agree with what makes the most meteorological sense.
    6 likes
  41. test1
    Same mentality with vaccines; they take their chances, no logic to being irrational, remember it's THEIR CHOICE
    6 likes
  42. test1
    Ida is a BEAST this morning.
    6 likes
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