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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/08/2019 in all areas

  1. 16 points
    I'm not sure if some are giving sufficient credit to the improvements 12z vs. 06z, which were in fact fairly material. The axis/orientation of the upstream PNA on the GFS is quite a bit more meridional/N-S, and thus, since the rolling-over is delayed, the entire s/w energy is ejected from the Rockies and is substantially more consolidated downstream. By maintaining a more meridional PNA structure, this increases the geography across which the polar jet short wave must travel, thereby ultimately improving the angular momentum w/ the slower arrival. The sfc consequences are a more amplified storm. Slight improvements with respect to the maintenance of the PNA orientation, and delays in roll-over initiation, will further slow the arrival of the destructively interfering PJ short wave, thus allowing the sern vort to more fully amplify/consolidate and tilt neutrally upon arrival at the Mid-Atlantic coast. At day 5, this is actually quite close to being something interesting.
  2. 15 points
    if the euro holds the gfs is probably full of shit
  3. 13 points
    Well punch my arm and call me Sue, those EPS sure show some left lean. Nice thing to see
  4. 11 points
    Where I disagree, is your post seems to imply that the pattern is not conducive right now, and this is a thread the needle type threat. If so, I don't agree, and the global indicators fairly strongly suggest a storm threat this weekend; as MJO/GWO dual circulation through 7-8 occur, and post jet extension angular momentum decrease allows the PNA to improve, in concert w/ departing confluence. I actually think the synoptics are quite felicitous, and would be surprised if there isn't at least a light-moderate type snowfall Mid-Atlantic into the coastal Northeast.
  5. 11 points
    Concur - substantial cave to the GEFS here. The TPV angular momentum is a small flaw, which, if placement altered slightly, the s/w would have room to consolidate and amplify much more.
  6. 11 points
    My suggestion is to not base your opinion or feeling off of weather models. Try to take a look at what is actually happening in the atmosphere (look at 500mb, etc) and understand why the models are suggesting what they are. If you formulate your opinions off weather models, you're already behind the curve. Weather models are just simulations of the atmosphere and should be used as guidance. If you understand the pattern in place, often times you can even predict how the models will behave. That's the best way to learn...just a suggestion and not meant to be condescending.
  7. 10 points
  8. 10 points
    For those trying to learn, here’s an annotation of what we are talking about. This TPV lobe, as currently modeled, completely shunts away the amplifying storm system and introduces cold and dense air into the Northeast. If this feature we’re to come in further west, barotropic growth would be promoted and the system could rapidly amplify. However, due to the non-ideal Pacific evolution, I currently favor an eastward entry point which unfortunately does not favor said barotropic growth and/or rapid deepening. We shall see!
  9. 10 points
    I think there's potential for much more than that, but as I said, we'll see how the next 24 hours progress.
  10. 10 points
    Improvement already detectable -- ULL farther west of BC coast, this means delayed roll-over versus 00z.
  11. 10 points
    Gorgeous evolution on today’s 12z GEFS. They have been a bit too trigger happy with the change, but we can now see the period moving well up in time. Look at the major changes throughout the entire hemisphere, particularly the high latitudes.
  12. 9 points
    I certainly don't disagree that the pattern is less than "ideal" for big storms right now, as the tropical forcing induced Pacific structure changes are in flux this week. I think we may have differing perspectives due to what we're awaiting in a particular pattern as well. For example, I've never disagreed with your stance, and continue to believe, that the "most severe" part of the upcoming pattern waits until later in the month. Of course, that doesn't mean the pattern now isn't sufficiently favorable. Our putative "big dog" windows are always very small, and most of our snow falls in patterns which are good, but not textbook/KU "ideal." With respect to this weekend, we'll have to see how it evolves further over the coming days, as I do believe there's even more room for PNA improvements.
  13. 9 points
    As discussed the past few days the real issue is that TPV lobe and the compression from the Pacific ridge. The pattern is really close to producing but it's not quite ripe yet. It's kind of like eating a green banana and expecting it to taste great. The best case scenario for us (in my opinion) is that the TPV lobe gets out of the way so that we can get some natural height rises from the overrunning precipitation. This would allow us to properly ventilate aloft and get light high ratio snow up to our region.
  14. 9 points
  15. 9 points
    For the love of god please stop quoting images and replying, the threads are almost unreadable. Delete the images from your quotes
  16. 8 points
  17. 8 points
    Also, I’m really not okay treating as fact all the claims that the quality of American model data has been impacted by the shutdown. It’s unproven and impractical. A theory. The more logical and scientific explanation for worse than usual model performance (Euro included) is the major SSW causing havoc. Moses didn’t part the sea, there was a low tide. Darkness didn’t fall over the land, there was a solar eclipse. Science. S-C-I-E-N-C-E. I hate that the usual suspects on social media are spreading their poisonous and politically-obsessed agendas into the realm of weather. Go chase your tails somewhere else!
  18. 8 points
    Nice to see 110 members online, those numbers will double soon. Next weekend's threat is giving us the first real hope in a long time. Exciting times ahead and as our pros here have said here for awhile!
  19. 7 points
  20. 7 points
    Sorry - didn't mean to come across that way. I don't think this is a thread the needle evolution. I also don't think it's very favorable for significant snowfall, which is what I was trying to get across. Mainly, though, my point is that the window for something moderate or greater is smaller than it normally would be because the pattern isn't quite "ripe" yet. A lag in the retrogression of the Pacific pattern is very clearly causing some continued effects of an extending jet stream and the wave break in the Pacific is causing this ridge to be less than ideal. Focusing in on the italic part above, I think of it this way. If the pattern were ripe, this evolution would be fantastic. The compressed and confluent flow would be fine, because the shortwave would have more time to organize, amplify, and move up the coast. Height rises could begin in earnest due to the shortwave amplifying while the ridge remained stout and well positioned. There would be multiple ways for the threat to work - we could get overrunning, we could get a major coastal that waits until the departure of a compressed height field, or we could get both. Instead, the window is much smaller because the Pacific mid and upper level pattern is not quite ready. This means we have a small window for this to work - we don't have time to wait for the confluence to depart, because if we do that, the shortwave gets compressed from the west. We don't have the ability to send the shortwave northward into the confluence, because it's not amplified enough initially and runs into a northwest flow. Basically my point is that we could very easily get a light snowfall here, and if every single chip falls properly we could see something moderate. But the pattern isn't quite ripe yet and as a result, this threat's window is much smaller than it could have been.
  21. 7 points
    As noted before, the TPV will improve as a function of the meridional PNA structure improvement, so the latter continues to be what I'm monitoring.
  22. 7 points
    I set the goal at some light snow at this point. This run gets it done. Ukmet last night also had a similar outcome. Let’s just get out of the slump
  23. 7 points
    todays ao forecast looks good...it will be negative for the 13th storm...it rises to neutral but all members go quite negative at the end of the run...this is what I was waiting for...hopefully the forecast doesn't change tomorrow...it looks like a minus 3-4sd coming up...
  24. 7 points
  25. 7 points
    Seems all the models scores are down since Christmas. Possibly because of the major SSW which has thrown all of the models into fits.