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  1. 20 points
    Note how much slower the EPS mean has trended with the shortwave related to our storm, and how much more separation there is between the southern and northern stream in both the EPS and GEFS vs. 24 hours ago (related to a more amplified and westerly-placed upstream ridge). These are positive trends. With the slower/more separated trends in the s. stream system, there is a growing chance the PV lobe will be able to exit out of the way to the NE in a favorable way. However, the exiting PV lobe could still provide significant resistance to northward expansion of precipitation depending on timing, especially over New England.
  2. 16 points
    I'm not sure if some are giving sufficient credit to the improvements 12z vs. 06z, which were in fact fairly material. The axis/orientation of the upstream PNA on the GFS is quite a bit more meridional/N-S, and thus, since the rolling-over is delayed, the entire s/w energy is ejected from the Rockies and is substantially more consolidated downstream. By maintaining a more meridional PNA structure, this increases the geography across which the polar jet short wave must travel, thereby ultimately improving the angular momentum w/ the slower arrival. The sfc consequences are a more amplified storm. Slight improvements with respect to the maintenance of the PNA orientation, and delays in roll-over initiation, will further slow the arrival of the destructively interfering PJ short wave, thus allowing the sern vort to more fully amplify/consolidate and tilt neutrally upon arrival at the Mid-Atlantic coast. At day 5, this is actually quite close to being something interesting.
  3. 15 points
    if the euro holds the gfs is probably full of shit
  4. 14 points
    The two opposite scenarios are seen with my latest tweet: Also, I thought of an analogy to compare the Northern and Southern streams as 'magnets'. The stronger and more-consolidated the southern piece (magnet), the more attracted it'll be to the northern piece (magnet), and be dragged up-the-coast, rather than OTS. To me, I want the southern branch to find it's identity...huge key to this system. Big checkpoint tomorrow!
  5. 14 points
    solid northern lean on EPS as well amongst got members
  6. 13 points
    I like this evolution more - one more bump like that and this has much more room
  7. 13 points
    The increase in amplification of the PNA ridging over the last few runs is important for two reasons: 1) It allows for further amplification of the shortwave rolling over the ridge itself, and 2) It allows for a better entrance of the TPV lobe into the OH Valley, which would help angular momentum issues. The NW lean of the EPS (which is most likely due to the more favorable PNA ridging) leads me to believe that the GEFS has some credence; some of the EPS members have significant positive interaction with the TPV. We will have to see how this all plays out, as the setup and evolution are extremely touchy; however, the positive trends today cannot be ignored. Slight positive changes in the handling of the PNA ridge and TPV could have a huge effect on sensible weather. As of right now, the MA region has the highest chance of seeing heavy snowfall from this system, but PHL-NYC is certainly in the game for significant impacts. The 00z suite tonight will be huge. If the ECMWF makes another positive trend, it's game on.
  8. 13 points
    Well punch my arm and call me Sue, those EPS sure show some left lean. Nice thing to see
  9. 12 points
    Also one of things we do better than anyone and by far and why I continue to be here, and proudly so, is that there is no factionalism. There is genuine rooting for the other guy with no infighting. When we dont get ours, like we didnt on Dec. 9th, we rooted for the south, and now Im sure we hope this thing punches up north to include all, if possible, from VA to ME. There is no enomosity and that is all important when the goals are to learn and discuss and have fun while doing it- this isnt some cliche concept but reality,
  10. 11 points
    This run is better for a couple reasons, one of which is a little less obvious: 1) The TPV is much farther NE, which allows for decompression of heights in the NE US. Therefore, heights are able to rise throughout the EC, and PVA is able to take a more NE trajectory rather than ENE. 2) The PNA ridge is stronger in the SW US, with less of a cutoff look. This is extremely important for the initial consolidation of energy before the shortwave reaches the EC. On the 12z run, some of the energy almost rolls into the ridge, thus leading to a more strung out look. Here, since the ridge remains meridional throughout, the energy is able to remain more consolidated. If another bump like this happens, the main piece of energy may be able to amplify by itself, which is a much safer evolution. It's actually the evolution that we originally saw in the infant stages of tracking. Overall, these changes are very positive. Even though this run doesn't show a bomb verbatim, these are some of the steps needed to provide a favorable environment for amplification off the EC.
  11. 11 points
    I like seeing the possibility of the TPV getting out of the way and having this still work. This has increased our room for error.
  12. 11 points
    Hello, deep winter. Good to see you again.
  13. 11 points
    Where I disagree, is your post seems to imply that the pattern is not conducive right now, and this is a thread the needle type threat. If so, I don't agree, and the global indicators fairly strongly suggest a storm threat this weekend; as MJO/GWO dual circulation through 7-8 occur, and post jet extension angular momentum decrease allows the PNA to improve, in concert w/ departing confluence. I actually think the synoptics are quite felicitous, and would be surprised if there isn't at least a light-moderate type snowfall Mid-Atlantic into the coastal Northeast.
  14. 11 points
    Concur - substantial cave to the GEFS here. The TPV angular momentum is a small flaw, which, if placement altered slightly, the s/w would have room to consolidate and amplify much more.
  15. 11 points
    My suggestion is to not base your opinion or feeling off of weather models. Try to take a look at what is actually happening in the atmosphere (look at 500mb, etc) and understand why the models are suggesting what they are. If you formulate your opinions off weather models, you're already behind the curve. Weather models are just simulations of the atmosphere and should be used as guidance. If you understand the pattern in place, often times you can even predict how the models will behave. That's the best way to learn...just a suggestion and not meant to be condescending.
  16. 10 points
    I think the EPS jogged a lot further N than even the most optimistic person would have thought. I thought we would see baby steps N , that was a big leap.
  17. 10 points
  18. 10 points
    For those trying to learn, here’s an annotation of what we are talking about. This TPV lobe, as currently modeled, completely shunts away the amplifying storm system and introduces cold and dense air into the Northeast. If this feature we’re to come in further west, barotropic growth would be promoted and the system could rapidly amplify. However, due to the non-ideal Pacific evolution, I currently favor an eastward entry point which unfortunately does not favor said barotropic growth and/or rapid deepening. We shall see!
  19. 10 points
    I think there's potential for much more than that, but as I said, we'll see how the next 24 hours progress.
  20. 10 points
    Improvement already detectable -- ULL farther west of BC coast, this means delayed roll-over versus 00z.
  21. 10 points
    Gorgeous evolution on today’s 12z GEFS. They have been a bit too trigger happy with the change, but we can now see the period moving well up in time. Look at the major changes throughout the entire hemisphere, particularly the high latitudes.
  22. 9 points
    We've got our best people working on it.
  23. 9 points
  24. 9 points
    I certainly don't disagree that the pattern is less than "ideal" for big storms right now, as the tropical forcing induced Pacific structure changes are in flux this week. I think we may have differing perspectives due to what we're awaiting in a particular pattern as well. For example, I've never disagreed with your stance, and continue to believe, that the "most severe" part of the upcoming pattern waits until later in the month. Of course, that doesn't mean the pattern now isn't sufficiently favorable. Our putative "big dog" windows are always very small, and most of our snow falls in patterns which are good, but not textbook/KU "ideal." With respect to this weekend, we'll have to see how it evolves further over the coming days, as I do believe there's even more room for PNA improvements.
  25. 9 points
    As discussed the past few days the real issue is that TPV lobe and the compression from the Pacific ridge. The pattern is really close to producing but it's not quite ripe yet. It's kind of like eating a green banana and expecting it to taste great. The best case scenario for us (in my opinion) is that the TPV lobe gets out of the way so that we can get some natural height rises from the overrunning precipitation. This would allow us to properly ventilate aloft and get light high ratio snow up to our region.
  26. 9 points
  27. 9 points
    For the love of god please stop quoting images and replying, the threads are almost unreadable. Delete the images from your quotes
  28. 8 points
    Remember, a lot of those individual ensemble members on those sites are plotting at a very coarse resolution, so they interpret anything near the coast as basically the ocean. Most of those rain plots would not in fact be rain, and the snow maps are skewed lower as a result.
  29. 8 points
    Gefs qpf for nyc is 0.6ish nice bump up from 12z. 0.75 line is just south of Long Island. Mean lp location very close to bm
  30. 8 points
    The TPV out-of-the-way scenario would mean the storm wouldn't explode as quickly, and it may lower the ceiling in some localized areas. But it also increases the chances that the storm would slow down, rather than get sling-shot east/northeastward. So for a more expansive area, you have have a pretty high ceiling with the TPV out-of-the-way scenario.
  31. 8 points
    Considering the wave breaking and progressive pattern in Canada, I still have a feeling some small piece of the TPV will try to dive southward, but do so in a progressive manner, and prevent things from being clean. However, as others have noted, if we can keep consolidating the southern stream and slow it down, we may actually have time for the progressive flow to kick the TPV out of the way. I didn't necessarily think this before, and I still feel like the better EPS runs phased the TPV; but again, it's nice to see there is more than one scenario that can produce the goods. Essentially, the more amplified WC ridge buys us about 24 hours of more time for our southern stream wave to pull something off on its own, since the more amplified WC ridge means the entire pattern won't roll over east as quickly. But is that enough time to get the TPV out of the way, or will it still try to stubbornly interact/kick in that window?
  32. 8 points
    Well then, did not expect those massive improvements on the 12z EURO today! I have a gut feeling more changes are in store over the next 72hrs. Its Encouraging to see the NW trend overall with regards to the MSLP tracking on the GEFS and now the EPS. In particular, im personally watching how deep the cold can penetrate into SE Va, which will determine the chances of my area seeing mixed precip and maybe a changeover to all snow on the departing end of this system. Its WAY too far out to even consider this, but i have liked the trends for a colder air-mass in Central VA. Its borderline for the coast, as 850 temps are just above 0C, but squeeze in some additional wrap-around moisture and those chances increase. Excited to be back tracking; December 9th surprised me with over performing in my locale so based on continued improvements today, im becoming increasingly confident on a more impactful system not only for the Mid-Atlantic, but possibly as far North as Central New Jersey and NYC(?). Great discussions from @earthlight @CCB! @Yaakov @Isotherm! If i forgot your name, i apologize as there is simply too many great posters on this forum Bring on the snow; Its about damn time!
  33. 8 points
    EPS still likes winter here for the weenie range
  34. 8 points
    Crazy, it’s like we’ve got the entire USA on here!
  35. 8 points
    We are getting a thunderstorm right now. Lol. Crazy winter.
  36. 8 points
  37. 8 points
    Also, I’m really not okay treating as fact all the claims that the quality of American model data has been impacted by the shutdown. It’s unproven and impractical. A theory. The more logical and scientific explanation for worse than usual model performance (Euro included) is the major SSW causing havoc. Moses didn’t part the sea, there was a low tide. Darkness didn’t fall over the land, there was a solar eclipse. Science. S-C-I-E-N-C-E. I hate that the usual suspects on social media are spreading their poisonous and politically-obsessed agendas into the realm of weather. Go chase your tails somewhere else!
  38. 8 points
    Nice to see 110 members online, those numbers will double soon. Next weekend's threat is giving us the first real hope in a long time. Exciting times ahead and as our pros here have said here for awhile!
  39. 7 points
  40. 7 points
    Was looking at the same thing.. keeping it more amplified as well. That PNA spike is helping alot
  41. 7 points
  42. 7 points
  43. 7 points
    Sorry - didn't mean to come across that way. I don't think this is a thread the needle evolution. I also don't think it's very favorable for significant snowfall, which is what I was trying to get across. Mainly, though, my point is that the window for something moderate or greater is smaller than it normally would be because the pattern isn't quite "ripe" yet. A lag in the retrogression of the Pacific pattern is very clearly causing some continued effects of an extending jet stream and the wave break in the Pacific is causing this ridge to be less than ideal. Focusing in on the italic part above, I think of it this way. If the pattern were ripe, this evolution would be fantastic. The compressed and confluent flow would be fine, because the shortwave would have more time to organize, amplify, and move up the coast. Height rises could begin in earnest due to the shortwave amplifying while the ridge remained stout and well positioned. There would be multiple ways for the threat to work - we could get overrunning, we could get a major coastal that waits until the departure of a compressed height field, or we could get both. Instead, the window is much smaller because the Pacific mid and upper level pattern is not quite ready. This means we have a small window for this to work - we don't have time to wait for the confluence to depart, because if we do that, the shortwave gets compressed from the west. We don't have the ability to send the shortwave northward into the confluence, because it's not amplified enough initially and runs into a northwest flow. Basically my point is that we could very easily get a light snowfall here, and if every single chip falls properly we could see something moderate. But the pattern isn't quite ripe yet and as a result, this threat's window is much smaller than it could have been.
  44. 7 points
    As noted before, the TPV will improve as a function of the meridional PNA structure improvement, so the latter continues to be what I'm monitoring.
  45. 7 points
    I set the goal at some light snow at this point. This run gets it done. Ukmet last night also had a similar outcome. Let’s just get out of the slump
  46. 7 points
    todays ao forecast looks good...it will be negative for the 13th storm...it rises to neutral but all members go quite negative at the end of the run...this is what I was waiting for...hopefully the forecast doesn't change tomorrow...it looks like a minus 3-4sd coming up...
  47. 7 points
  48. 7 points
    Seems all the models scores are down since Christmas. Possibly because of the major SSW which has thrown all of the models into fits.
  49. 6 points
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