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  1. test1
    You've got a few things happening that are signals and not just model noise: 1. Retrogression through early Jan before momentum is added from an East Asian +MT then. 2. Coherent transient wave train across the North Pacific begins in a week which will amplify things then and beyond then. 3. Split flow with retrograding RW across the North Atlantic Early Jan is a time when the RW reaches our longitude with potentially enough beforehand to bring the baroclinic zone to the coast. So while we're coming out of a milder period, the right timing could work with this.
    23 likes
  2. test1
    This signal has been on the last few runs and fits with the classic tropospheric precursor pattern. It also fits with a classic Niño progression for a mid winter disturbance. The entire evolution with the TPV and this reminds me of 1987.
    20 likes
  3. test1
    Well, for starters, the time of year matters for the wave train response and what is statistically likely over the US. Being solely in a phase says nothing about the inertial state or changing state since the wave itself, its interaction with other forces, and its influence around the globe all can alter from event to event. Background states affect the way the MJO affects the wave trains and their influence on our weather.
    19 likes
  4. test1
    As the VP200 hovmoller below shows, this is a classic example of multiple higher frequency circulation signals competing for dominance in RMM phase space, hence the dampened/weak MJO. What we're seeing right now is not an MJO in the classical sense but rather a mattering of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (k = 3) projecting onto low frequency modes, which oftentimes occurs in cases like these there's an effective hand-off between lower frequency variability (in this case +IOD >>> +ENSO) and the subseasonal circulation leaves the antecedent dominant forcing signal (I.e. the MJO leavi
    16 likes
  5. test1
    30th December to 1st January still looks like a potential workable period for some snowfall, cold and troughing. Potentially.
    14 likes
  6. test1
    The actual EA MT of interest is in early Jan.
    14 likes
  7. test1
    The RMMs are reacting to higher frequency waves and multiple areas of forcing. This is why they sort of cut through the middle and eventually emerge into W. Pacific. The lower frequency signal will reach the central tropical pacific in the second week of Jan probably. I agree with Eric on that. Use Roundy's statistical guidance for a visual: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/ and more specifically:
    14 likes
  8. test1
    Yes, early January has a chance indeed.
    12 likes
  9. test1
    I'm not a fan of calling phases warm or cold. I'm also not a fan of isolating a region and treating as if it's the only region, like we've seen in some recent posts this evening. After all, the MJO explains like 25% of the variance. But anyway, the warm pool gets excited during the second week on those charts.
    10 likes
  10. test1
    EPS isn’t a big fan. GEFS likes it better. The positioning of these things are important. It could work out, but given the progression of the GSDM and the cycle of it, I’d assume it to be a bit earlier. A late torque is better, but it doesn’t really change the narrative. Might improve the short term outcome though, it depends on the strength of the +EAMT of course and how that interacts with the PNA domain 5-10 days downstream. The progression of a gradual change to colder risks in the Eastern US, doesn’t involve a sudden flip to deep cold in Early J
    9 likes
  11. test1
    The forecast +EAMT for 24th-26th of December is not exactly that strong, and is relatively short-lived. Watch the descending high upon the Himalayas quickly succumb to the forces of descending troughs. It will probably cause a positive EAMT, but not one that can really pack a punch. We do have +FT as well, but that is of course evidence the MJO signal is rather pushing into Maritime Continent, and with a lack of pace. What this means is that we are in Phase 3/4, which are destructive influences to Eastern US troughing with a lag. They are also correlated
    9 likes
  12. test1
    Real nice improvements on the GEFS and eps this afternoon. More ridging into Ak with the Pv moving south.
    8 likes
  13. test1
    If we do not see an area wide 4-8" snow event by January 15th, our AN seasonal snowfall dreams are as good as cooked. Luckily, we're going to get that storm on 1/3.
    8 likes
  14. test1
    Despite ample sunshine, most of the region saw its coldest December temperatures since December 31, 2017. Select low temperatures included:   Boston: 15° (lowest since March 7); Bridgeport: 17° (lowest since March 8); Islip: 17° (lowest since December 8); New York City: 16° (lowest since February 2); Newark: 16° (lowest since March 7); and, Philadelphia: 19° (lowest since March 7).   Beginning this weekend, a milder pattern will commence. Overall, the final 10 days of December will likely have above normal temperatures, with perhaps a few somewhat cooler days.  
    8 likes
  15. test1
    That's the setup for our 1/3 storm. I really like that date. And, yes, I realize there are a couple other chances before then.
    7 likes
  16. test1
    This deserves more attention in here.
    7 likes
  17. test1
    January 2020 weighted analog composites (from our winter forecast) December 2019 weighted analog composites
    6 likes
  18. test1
    most of the el nino winters had more or much more snow after January 15th...
    5 likes
  19. test1
    Yeah I agree with about 80% of what 33andrain says in here. But no, trump is not going to be removed from office. I have a better chance of getting 40 inches of snow in a blizzard on April 30 than trump has of being removed from office.
    4 likes
  20. test1
    The EPS is signaling it. I disagree that it is not.
    4 likes
  21. test1
    Theres back side flow, the H drills in from NE. Thar low cuts to the Delmarva, you CAD. It's a light snow chance , nothing big.
    4 likes
  22. test1
    Actually, I said it was almost time, not that it was time. It was the same day I said this:
    4 likes
  23. test1
    OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts Issued: December 19, 2019
    4 likes
  24. test1
    The EPS is a conveyor belt up the eastern seaboard from d 9 on.
    3 likes
  25. test1
    As we speak , most of the Northeast has been below the freezing mark for about 48 hours. A warmup is likely next week followed by a return to a colder pattern after the 26th. What remains to be seen, however, is if a wintry pattern can unfold. More often than not, when you have sustainable cold, a storm will definitely produce snow. But we need that ridge south of Alaska to remain strong and keep pumping into the West to avoid a situation similar to last winter, where storms would crash into the west coast, and produce a ridge in the east. As long as that ridge remains that strong, and shortwa
    3 likes
  26. 3 likes
  27. test1
    Here's how we look at 500. Have to like more than 1 chance here
    3 likes
  28. test1
    I don't think this one cuts. Look for a secondary.
    3 likes
  29. test1
    Republican Senate who is very partisan and are terrified of voting against him will not convict him
    3 likes
  30. test1
    Take a look at this as well. EPS predicting Siberian warming in the 15 day forecast. All credit to Meteorologist Michael Ventrice.
    3 likes
  31. test1
    When cpc calls for a cold month, wow!
    3 likes
  32. test1
    With such blocking apparent over Hudson Bay, Western Canada, and Western U.S., along with multiple shortwaves coming from the Hawaiian part of the Pacific (due to Pineapple Express), any storm that rides up the coast has the chance to produce snow for areas even down to the Mid-Atlantic coast. The same can be said for any storm that cuts and then redevelops off the coast (similar to Dec. 2 event). This may just be a fluke in the model runs, as the MJO has recently been forecast in an unfavorable light for wintry weather to start January. However, if 12z models are correct and this pattern rema
    2 likes
  33. test1
    Primary runs to the OHV and then secondaries. The slower cluster is further south and snowier closer to the northeast coast. The cluster further N would favor New England.
    2 likes
  34. test1
    1986-87 analog showed up a lot in the fall. I did not use it for bad qbo values. But it was definitely there.
    2 likes
  35. test1
    Why aren’t you a fan of that? Wouldn’t p6 be unfavorable for sustainable cold in the east?
    2 likes
  36. test1
    I bet you are also in favor of lowering the voting age to 16 as well? I think no matter who you are, if you step into the spotlight and demand universal law changes to billions of people, they are not invincible to criticism.
    2 likes
  37. test1
    I posted that the EPS after I saw the 282 had multiple chances. I just like the multiple SWs under the block. Here's the 5 day mean in the 10 to 15 If we filled that gap it would come very close to the 10 day mean before one of the greatest 1 - 2 punch the MA has ever seen I just ripped this from crazy Joe but man thats not too far away.
    2 likes
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