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  1. test1
    The fall and first few weeks of meteorological winter have been interesting…there have been periods of active convection in the western/central Pacific, resulting in relatively higher AAM orbits, some shots to the stratospheric PV, and a generally amplified ridge near the West Coast and into Alaska. There have also been periods of very little convection in the western/central Pacific and lower AAM when Indian Ocean forcing has dominated, during which we’ve generally seen the stratospheric PV strengthen with the Pacific pattern turning less conducive for cold weather in the central/eastern U.S
    23 likes
  2. test1
    I'll get a more thorough post up late Monday morning/early afternoon, I'm too tired to coherently finish it right now, but my general thought is early and mid-January are potentially workable at times, especially in the interior, but not great, as tropical forcing isn't yet optimal...we'll also see a trend to a more +AO to start January beneath the strengthening strat PV, and the TPV anomaly over AK will be tough to displace. I think we see an attempt to amp NE Pacific ridging in early January in response to a fairly robust East Asian Mountain Torque, but it may not be enough to force a prolo
    12 likes
  3. test1
    I guess my ultimate message isn't to punt the first half of Jan as I expect a gradual improvement, but I do think gradual is the operative word, we likely don't see an optimal pattern for snow for a few weeks...that does NOT mean no snow...but, I also get the impression that those who were eager for a quick flip are now panicking since the PV sitting over AK and +AO is slowing the transition to a much better pattern. I think there are still many reasons to expect both factors to go away through the month, with potential for a much better pattern still there for later January and beyond. If w
    10 likes
  4. test1
    I actually think there’s some legitimacy to the forecasts showing retrogression to phase 5 in the longer range, which would validate the panic setting in atm. Retrogression of the MJO can occur in cases like this where an initially strong signal over the WP propagates towards the CP and attenuates while a new CCKW emerges over the Maritime Continent and far West Pac and begins to dominate. This evolution would prolong a mediocre/crappy pattern and completely destroy hope for a legitimate turnaround in early January. Things can certainly change but the forecasts wrt the TPV lobe over northern C
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  5. test1
    Yeah, things have definitely trended worst for the start of January. Some will say it’s the mjo, but the mjo doesn’t control where the Pv will park. Until that weakens winter will be on a hiatus. I agree, it’s not a warm look currently but we are not far from one. Sorry folks looks like we are going to kick the can
    10 likes
  6. test1
    It definitely will not snow down south in NC with a crappy pattern, need a great or fantastic pattern and a stroke a luck to have a snowball’s chance in hell. Luckily, I’ll be in Iowa for xmas this year and there’s a chance of snow this weekend, might be the only snow I see for the next couple years
    9 likes
  7. test1
    We need the TPV to settle in over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or retrogress all the way towards NE Siberia in order to encourage some semblance of poleward ACWB in the NE Pacific &/or -EPO, w/ the former obviously favoring a much colder long term outcome if it came to fruition. Having the TPV somewhere in between NE Siberia and northern Canada, in the vicinity of Alaska more specifically is the worst possible outcome that can emerge from this in the longer term and would put my idea for a legitimate flip in early Jan in serious jeopardy because the North America continent would become
    9 likes
  8. test1
    We continue to track very close to the 13 /14 analog. Here's the 5 day mean in the day 10 -15 , notice the concern here with a vortex near Alaska. Here is Jan 14 - 21 2014 Notice the WAR along with the POS on to the WC but far enough S of Alaska. Now look what happens the following 7 days as that vortex dislodges. I will lean on the analogs here.
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  9. test1
    Everyone else can cry about how bad the LR looks in the other thread. We'll track the upcoming wintry period between 1/3 and 1/6 in here. Feel free to hop aboard any time.
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  11. test1
    I don’t necessarily think the slower change is better or worse, I think the end may depend on if there’s a more notable stratospheric warming event at some point which is very TBD. But I think it’s worth noting that a slower change in the first half of January still gives us only the entire second half of winter to potentially work with, so some of the panic I’ve seen (moreso other places than here) is not warranted. With that said, will I feel better once we know for sure when/how we get the polar vortex out of Alaska?...yes.
    6 likes
  12. test1
    Exactly and to be honest, there’s really not much we can do about it. One certainly wonders what kind of pattern we’d be presented with in January had said TPV slipped underneath the Baffin Bay block and into the North Atlantic as many models initially predicted a few weeks ago instead of holding back over the Canadian Arctic. I certainly believe this was a significant point of bifurcation for this winter and choosing this arguably less favorable pathway could have significant complications going forward unless we really shake things up
    6 likes
  13. test1
    Certainly plausible to think there could be opportunities esp in the interior NE and lakes in this kind of pattern. On the contrary, I really need to see that big vortex come sliding down below the Hudson Bay in conjunction with a sheared southern stream wave to give my neck of the woods a legitimate chance to score something substantial. I still believe this eventually may happen but we’ll see
    6 likes
  14. test1
    Unfortunately, the evolution of ridgid, quasi-barotropic vortices is hard to capture and predict more than several days out and many of the characteristics are “random” in some sense. Last time we saw a big vortex like that persist for any considerable period of time over Alaska during winter was 2011-12 & well... don’t need much explaining after that. Fortunately, especially for the southern tier, even in the midst of a strong +EPO, this year’s nino lean to the global-scale circulation would probably soften the blow relative to 2011-12. As I said earlier however, there’s plenty of time fo
    6 likes
  15. test1
    The kind of EPO+/AO+ pattern forecast for the opening week of January does not necessarily mean a relatively snowless winter lies ahead. Since 1950, there were 5 winters that saw the EPO average +0.50 to +1.50 and the AO +1.000 to +3.000 during the first week in January. January snowfall for those winters was as follows: 1951-52: 6.2"; 1963-64: 13.3"; 1983-84: 11.7"; 1991-92: 1.5"; and, 1999-00: 9.5" for New York City. The current January mean snowfall figure is 7.0". 1963-64 had a mean monthly temperature of 35.6° (the current 1981-2010 normal figure is 32.6°) January-March sn
    5 likes
  16. test1
    I feel great. No changes. Use the analogs.
    5 likes
  17. test1
    Absolutely, & most of this change is really attributable to this pesky TPV over Alaska, whose predictability is limited beyond several days to a week or so, but leaves a large imprint on the global stage, it’s truly a wildcard. Most models initially kept this feature towards the Baffin Bay and had it descend towards south-central Canada as a -EPO went up. We still have anticyclonic wave breaking in the NE Pacific, but this TPV is literally and figuratively squashing these anticyclones and instead we end up with a raging +EPO and a seasonable-mild pattern instead of one that could have been
    5 likes
  18. test1
    It certainly can be just barely cold enough but said pattern is at best seasonable and progressive (what we’ve already contended with m) unless we have a high latitude block somewhere to dislodge the TPV in Alaska and cold air associated with it. This feature is highly unpredictable, but as I’ve said before we need it to move and go anywhere, literally just about anywhere but Alaska. An equatorward suppressed N Pacific anticyclone, +EPO and +NAM is a great recipe to create a mild January over much of the CONUS (including NYC via Don), however the strong subtropical jet will stop the bleeding e
    5 likes
  19. test1
    Having it over Alaska might as well be over the pole because it’s still going to try and force a mild pattern over most of the continent save Alaska of course with Pacific air being fluxed across much of the US. The vortex needs to be over northern Canada preferably or even NE Siberia would be an improvement over what’s currently modeled. The GEFS has a strong cold bias in the 10-15 over the E US so I take those maps with extreme caution.
    5 likes
  20. test1
    Yeah, the lower hgts in Ak have been a new development since last nights eps. It just lingers there and we really don’t get much ridging into Ak. The one positive is Canada will get super cold just nothing to really tap it into the conus. It’s still a below normal look imo as the trough is angled towards the northeast. I can’t disagree, that it’s concerning but I still think to start January cold will be around with storm chances.
    5 likes
  21. test1
    If people--at least winter weather lovers--want to see what depressing is, the EPS weekly forecast for Europe provides a perfect illustration. Put simply, there is seemingly unending warm anomalies across the Continent.
    4 likes
  22. test1
    Somewhat, yes, but I think we eventually push the PV out of Alaska and towards Hudson Bay during the first half of January. The cold over Alaska/+EPO is keeping the first week of January much warmer than it might have otherwise been, and it will likely slow the transition to a truly colder/favorable pattern during the first half of January.
    4 likes
  23. test1
    Some of you see a pos AO and immediately go into the fetal position. Yes the pressure is greater underneath, but the positive we achieve due to TPV is not a killer underneath. If you only use the charts and not the 500, you are going to be led astray. There are low positive heights through the CONUS, but there's no big plus 570 dm ridge sitting through the lakes. You're seeing a deep negative in N Canada but you are also seeing the return flow intrude just enough cold air through the lakes. The N branch still dips into the Northeast and that
    4 likes
  24. test1
    Since we already had our festivus/airing of grievances a few days ago, I’d like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas.
    4 likes
  25. test1
    I don’t know if anyone responded to you. The numbers one through 8 represent the MJO phases. The yellow lines represent each ensemble member’s prediction going forward with the green line being the mean. Each black dot represents a different date beginning today and going out in the future. The MJO charts have been a little ugly lately, but usually you’d expect the yellow lines to be close together in the beginning and they would get farther apart as you go in to the future as confidence decreases. The circle in the center is also referred to as the circle of death (COD). When the line is
    4 likes
  26. 4 likes
  27. test1
    I think it's the *LR* loop back around into 5/6 that has people reeling, especially since last year's MJO trauma is still fresh. Need to take some deep breaths and remember that these plots have been flopping all over the place though.
    4 likes
  28. test1
    this junk has happened before...2004-05 went to sleep the first two weeks in January before a complete change the second half...we can only hope that happens again...
    4 likes
  29. test1
    Yea it looks good. Shift that trough over the east coast west about 200-300 miles and we’d be set! 11+ days away. As long as the ingredients remain on the table I’ll be happy
    4 likes
  30. test1
    Sunset after a day on which the temperature rose to 46°:
    4 likes
  31. test1
    The weeklies punt January and into the first week of February. Big dateline ridge with cold west and warm East. FWIW. Good times
    3 likes
  32. test1
    Strong? I wouldn’t say that. There’s some potential but far from a strong signal at this point.
    3 likes
  33. test1
    Gorgeous. If it’s not gonna snow, give me this all winter
    3 likes
  34. test1
    Go outside and enjoy the warmth. It’s gorgeous out there
    3 likes
  35. test1
    that mjo chart has to many members all over the place...
    3 likes
  36. test1
    I’m just tired of people being extremely optimistic. Come on, be objective about your analysis! Argue for what seems to be more likely to happen, not necessarily what you want to happen. The majority of this community wants KU events, no doubt about it. But ffs, tone down your snow bias down a bit in how you express your thoughts.
    3 likes
  37. test1
    We don’t need a “flip” to snow again, we just need a couple of “step down” periods. I highly suggest everyone check out our library and read up on the different drivers. None of this is unexpected.
    3 likes
  38. test1
    This has the feel of last year now. Always looking for the flip. Then bang March comes and it’s cold but only 40’s cold. Can not seem to time it properly for winter months. Oh well #WeStillTrack
    3 likes
  39. test1
    Posted this in the other thread but figured I would post it here as well. For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it woul
    3 likes
  40. test1
    The CFS is entering its higher skill forecast period for JAN. The trend is our friend if you like colder solutions. Notice trend in increase in N. Atlantic blocking & GOA ridge keeps inching east & stronger. It will be interesting to watch the next 9 days.
    3 likes
  41. test1
    Merry Christmas!
    2 likes
  42. test1
    I know some of you with the "If it ain't gonna snow, it might as well be warm" mantra.... Mine is "If at ain't gonna snow, it might as well be 10 below" ...rymes as well.
    2 likes
  43. test1
    I agree about the bias, but look at the EPS day 10-15 at 500. There`s a weak trough in the means in the N/E and N to slightly above with the trough axis to our east in early Jan can still be just cold enough.
    2 likes
  44. test1
    I wouldn’t look at any of this back and forth as hostility. I actually think it is indicative of the passion of each poster here and the level of content being posted. It’s a testament to the knowledge of each and every poster and the subsequent dialogue amongst each other. It’s all good, just keep it civil. I am learning a lot from each poster and their stance.
    2 likes
  45. test1
    “IMO, this community has many outstanding people who provide strong insight on a regular basis. @Isotherm, @Webberweather, @PB GFI are three examples among a much larger pool that elevates the discussions. Moreover, differences in perspective are helpful as they ensure that a broad range of scenarios are covered (think of it as a sort of discussion "ensemble" if you will).“ Couldn’t agree more, @donsutherland1. So many great members and so much great discussion here. There was a very high level of agitation happening on background today. Let none of it be a refle
    2 likes
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