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  1. test1
    Good morning gang. With the overload of model data available and being analyzed, I thought this morning would be a good time to take a step back and re-analyze this setup from a birds eye view. Often times as a meteorologist (especially as an operational forecaster) the over-saturation of model data can cause you to lose context on the setup itself and how the atmosphere is actually evolving. One of my old professors used to tell me that the atmosphere is telling a story and the models are simply different narrators. With that in mind, it's up to us to try to understand how things are going to
    64 likes
  2. test1
    Here's a nice surprise for everyone. I know we're all busy tracking the next few threats approaching, but please take a moment to welcome retired Meteorologist and NWS forecaster Walt Drag (@wdrag) to the 33andrain Community. We are very excited for Walt to join and even more excited to read his thoughts on...well anything...going forward. Welcome to the community Walt!
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  3. test1
    Ok friends I have a promising sign for the Sunday storm. We'll start with ensemble sensitivity analysis which basically shows you what trends you want to see at 500mb to get a particular surface solution. The top right panel shows that EOF1 (think of it as a particular group of ensemble members representing one possible solution) is showing much much much higher pressures near the benchmark (i.e. no storm). So what 500mb changes at 12z today produce the no storm solution? There's lots of stuff but one of the strongest and most temporally-consistent signals is th
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  4. test1
    Give it up for @brooklynwx99 y'all. fairly sure he hasn’t slept since Wednesday!
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  5. test1
    Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reasoning other than "it always does this, happens every time... so see, i knew it" then you should consider reigning in those types of sentiments. There's always going to be a degree of weenie-ism on wx forums, it's what we live for. But this particular core group is objective. There were no snow blinders on... I for one have been attacked when I don't expect a system to dump snow for da
    47 likes
  6. test1
    Hello everyone and Happy New Year. I hope you're all doing well and have managed to stay safe and healthy. Greenland is not the dividing line of a west based or east based NAO and there is no geographical demarcation line to delegate such. The function of a west vs east based NAO is not so linear or clear-cut as many in here have been attempting to make it. Where is the blocking located relative to the waveguide in the Northern Hemisphere? What impact is the blocking high pressure itself having on the pattern? Where is the ridging located relative to the North American continent?
    43 likes
  7. test1
    One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough and its progression along the EC). To illustrate this, i've gathered the 0z and 12z CMC, and 06z and 12z GFS. Look out to the NW, west of N. Cali, and note how by Wed. PM that ULL "opens" up, and you see a nudge eastward. This impacts the short-wavelength ridge, which ultimately "tames" the track of the mid-level low. You can see the H5 ULL (between both subjective model suites), accordingly adjust
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  8. test1
    I just wanted to run this back and say that it has been a real pleasure tracking this storm with y’all. Whoever gets what amount of snow is mostly irrelevant to me. Stoked to have (finally) made it out of a decadal +NAO and towards a snowy and active period again. Enjoy the snow in the next few days. Cheers y’all
    42 likes
  9. test1
    Any weather-related reason to post right now? Classic 95 1-2 footer coming IMO.
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  10. test1
    NAM looks great to me so far. Also, good morning y’all!!
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  11. test1
    Narrator: He was, in fact, blown away
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  12. test1
    I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast! The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New England and SE Canada, and ridging out west: In addition, this storm will occur while the NAO is transitioning, the PNA is spiking, and the AO is persistently, deeply negative: This all leads to a robust low pressure tracking across the Ohio Valley and then re-developing off the Mid Atlantic coast, with a strong high pressure over southeast Canada:
    41 likes
  13. test1
    While there's reasonable agreement on a -AO and -NAO persisting into early January, there is some uncertainty WRT whether or not the Pacific side offers any help or not. The EPS develops a +EPO into early January, which would lead to a milder pattern. The GEFS on the other hand holds onto more ridging on the West Coast... I think how each ensemble handles the tropical forcing is at least partially responsible for this difference. The GEFS keeps western Pacific forcing dominant longer, while the EPS really ramps up forcing over the central Indian Ocean:
    41 likes
  14. test1
    Man, you are a downer. Every.single.post. Do you think the vast majority of other people here want to read this stuff? Allow me to explain something to you and I am only going to post it once. 33andrain is a community. We all love snow and we come together as a group to post about it. We all hope that each and every one of us gets snow. That's the ideal situation! However, it is very rare, if not impossible, for everyone from Scranton to Dover to see 12" of snow from the same system. 33andrain can also be your safe space to whine about not seeing snow, but we have a dedicated thread for that.
    39 likes
  15. test1
    Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me as a Met student but I’m just happy as all hell rn and couldn’t be more excited to be tracking with as talented a bunch as yall! LETS GO!
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  16. 38 likes
  17. test1
    after the 12z suite, my confidence for a significant snowfall event has increased throughout the metro globals are likely underdoing the precip amounts. there is an anomalous 250mb jet, and the source region is the Gulf. this system will have no shortage of moisture the positioning of the HP farther W is helping to lock in colder air. plain rain does not look likely outside of E LI and far SNJ, as per usual with these events I can't make guesses about amounts yet, but given the ceiling has been raised greatly with the new multi-wave evolution
    38 likes
  18. test1
    That Euro run. you’re all sleeping. It’s handing you a KU-Kucini Lexus Nexis 5 wake the eff up
    38 likes
  19. test1
    The weather models are running just as quickly and as often as they can. Outputting nothing. Outputting snow. Outputting rain. Back and forth. Life and death. Snip snap! The fingers are typing and posting on Twitter even faster, if that’s even possible. But yes, actually, there are four “systems” that may produce snow on the East Coast next week, and one of them looks rather delectable, especially from the interior / northern Mid Atlantic into New England. A quick note on how this pattern is coming to be… Tropicaltidbits.com The combination of a n
    38 likes
  20. test1
    Without the -NAO this radar image would be quite disappointing for east coast residents...But that higher height field in Hudson Bay is PUSHING this thing and essentially forcing it to transfer its energy towards the coast as a secondary low where it eventually gets captured and retrogrades inside the 40/70 benchmark. Man, weather is so cool ain't it?
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  21. test1
    Beautiful run of the EPS - more consolidated but less north leaning members that would ultimately result in an amplified/dryslot type solution in the NJ/NYC region. Good morning gang
    37 likes
  22. test1
    Ok folks I really don’t understand the fascination with sharing Bernie Rayno news. There are plenty of famous and not so famous Mets and experts in here RIGHT NOW giving us their best. Take the other stuff to banter. If Bernie wants to post here, he would be welcome to.
    37 likes
  23. test1
    the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding LFG
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  24. test1
    The 12z EPS moved in the same direction as all other major ensembles. much deeper trough much more confluent flow over SE Canada an actual +PNA instead of zonal flow in the West Based on the trends I've seen this afternoon, I think that the ceiling for this event has skyrocketed. Here's why: There has been a consistent trend to both amplify the +PNA as well as the actual shortwave moving onto the WC. This would usually lead to an unfavorable solution for us, as the LP has a much higher chance of cutting with the possible reward if the track
    36 likes
  25. test1
    Fun fact: In The Day After Tomorrow, KNYC reported -25 with some 175" of snow, but KLGA was 40 and rain the whole time.
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  26. test1
    The lack of enthusiasm for this system for a bunch of snow freaks is disappointing and appalling.
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  27. test1
    Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right? The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Quebec, polar max digging into base of Pac s/w, longwave trough, and just enough of a shortened wavelength ridge out west to get a strong surface cyclone to manifest. Somewhere east of Apps are going to get hit hard, but this just has that “look”; the ingredients are literally there. Haven’t seen an evolution with hemispheric support in a minute.
    35 likes
  28. test1
    I spent a couple of hours yesterday morning writing up a post on the potential centered around the Jan 8th time frame. Unfortunately just before I went to post it I lost everything. Needless to say my puppies ran for cover and my wife scolded me for my ranting and foul language with yet another lecture on how I needed to save my work continuously. So, just another typical day for me. But I am here to try again. Fingers crossed. And yep, I will be saving my work continuously. I am going to use some maps I had drawn up yesterday. The general setup that intrigued me almost a week ago
    35 likes
  29. test1
    Thank you very much! I may not contribute often. Just getting a feel for how it goes here. I'm sure I will learn here and will appreciate all the posts. Until the GGEM shows me a little more consistency on a valid winter storm (grazer 21st?) and something fast moving and stronger for our area ~25th, I'll be laying low. I'm a NAEFS guy but like EC/NAM/RGEM combo in winter synoptic scale events, with GGEM necessarily on-board inside 84 hours. Presume many were probably thrilled with the many days of EC EPS consistency for the 12/16-17 event, using its basi
    35 likes
  30. test1
    I'm starting to get a little more excited for early-mid December. It looks like the Pacific jet will retract significantly, which is the real reason for the retrograding Alaskan LP. Upper level divergence occurs in the left exit region of jet streaks according to QG theory, so once the Pacific jet becomes less extended, the favorable region for ULL development moves with the jet: The reason why I bring this up specifically is because many times, the ensemble guidance will spit out a solution at 500mb (usually blocking) that has no real reason to occur. However, the shif
    35 likes
  31. test1
    if anemic means a widespread 6-8”, sign me up please
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  32. test1
    if anyone complains about a metro-wide 14-20” with localized 2’+ after the last few winters they should be five-posted
    34 likes
  33. test1
    Morning folks. Models are doing the mid-range wobbling thing again. Don't be surprised when the Euro pushes NW today and tonight while the GFS loses it. IMO, nothing has changed. Confluence is typically over-modeled, not under-modeled. Classic i95 SECS+ coming. 12-18" with locally higher amounts otw for the vast majority of posters. Dust off them snow blowers and get em gassed up. Especially you @Region-Mid Atlantic folks...it's been a while.
    34 likes
  34. test1
    There’s going to be something to worry about in almost every single pattern. This includes some of the greatest storms around here. If you were to look at the 500hPa height composite for NYC’s 15” snowfalls and imagine this idea on models, you’d probably have a ton of people complaining about the negative impacts of the troughing on the West Coast. The idea here is that the upcoming pattern is favorable for winter weather in the Northeast. The chances for a significant winter storm are certainly heightened compared to normal. While this doesn’t guarantee anything, the 5-Day height an
    34 likes
  35. test1
    I probably should also have added: In this speculation department, I tend to only post 1x/day (early) and not monitor the models constantly since their variation occupies time and I would rather find a 24 hour change in the modeling to assist with narrowing the cone of impact. So that means, I'm probably offline for hours at a time. I do thank you for all your kind and generous welcomes. I'm sure to be back late today . briefly. Have a day.
    34 likes
  36. test1
    IMO, this is a 6-12" snowfall for a large area. 8-12" for much of the NYC metro. Areas closer to NYC can stop referring to this as a front end thump because most of the system will in fact be snow, with only some sleet toward the end. This is nothing like the storm which was modeled even 2 days ago. Cold air press. Long duration. Favorable mid-level dynamics. Gas 'em up again ladies and germs, a bonafide SECS coming.
    33 likes
  37. test1
    We have waited a long time for this 33 members. Enjoy everything this storm has to bring as we know how bad the wait has been. No complaints! Enjoy the snow and think about how bad last winter was compared to now.
    33 likes
  38. test1
    Next post bashing the nws or any forecaster is a ban. includes staff We are better than that here. Historic storm incoming. Let’s go.
    33 likes
  39. test1
    It’s as if many of you have never tracked a possible “big one” before. We’re almost at the classic time frame when every global model loses (or almost loses) the storm entirely and mass panic ensues
    33 likes
  40. test1
    The EPS three days prior to Jan 2016 had a mean of 5” for NYC. I am posting this not as a comparison to that storm but more for context as the bridge-jumping begins.
    32 likes
  41. test1
    Not sure about everyone else but what I am seeing on the models recently as we head into prime climo has me stoked for our snow chances from the mid-Atlantic up into the NE. Below is a 5 day mean from the Euro that shows the general pattern we are moving into and which looks to have some staying power. We are seeing a PV setting up over the northern Hudson Bay as well as over the Aleutian Islands. This configuration is forcing the pattern through the mid-latitudes as to we are seeing ridging in the west and troughing in the east. The placement of these features are almost ideal as we see the
    32 likes
  42. test1
    who remembers all the warm fronts the GFS blew north of us because it sucks with CAD? that's why i'm leaning on a good track for the coast despite that 18z run
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  43. test1
    comes in at 8:47am and exits at 10:04pm
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  44. test1
    Never trust an upper level jet. The most undermodeled feature in moisture transport...Not every storm has an impressive h2.5 jet streak (Feb 1 KU) but it’s important to factor it into your wildcard forecast when one does appear...One has appeared
    31 likes
  45. test1
    I see we've started off this storm thread with some banger posts.
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  46. test1
    HI! I can't post on multiple forums in detail. Takes time away from home. Here's my very brief assessment. I think you all have it good. Tonight: ne PA/nw NJ high terrain, possibly Litchfield Hills/Berks...a period of moist unstable lapse rate snow showers sometime tonight with T-1" except possibly 1-2" highest terrain Poconos. Cold trough aloft passage, with CAA convergence driving nw wind following on Tuesday. Christmas Eve storm: notable rain/snowmelt I84 southward with damaging wind of 55-65MPH parts of NJ, LI and parts of southern new England. Wheth
    31 likes
  47. test1
    The 0z Tanzanian is weast of 12z but it’s ensembles mirror the KMA. Now we wait for the CRAS to see if it follows the DGEX or if it is more in line with the ETA. For now, lets look at the ICON which is more or less the same thing as the above. #filler
    31 likes
  48. test1
    Hey all! I apologize for my absence as i'm currently in the "heat" of finishing up my undergrad, working on some side projects, and working with my advisor regarding, well grad school; that is a discussion for another time. To say i've been busy is an understatement, but nonetheless I thought why not jump right into this great discourse going on from catching up! 1. I already see the discussion heating up for early Dec. wintry fun prospects and shenanigans, so I wanted to further add a technical component to it from my perspective with some higher predictability confide
    31 likes
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