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Showing most liked content on 09/25/2020 in all areas

  1. test1
    Hey all. Work has frankly sucked out most of my desire to discuss and look at weather during my free time much of this summer (something you never think is possible when you're a weenie posting on the Accu forums 10+ years ago!), but the early frost to start the week and prospect of flakes potentially flying before too much longer is starting to slowly give me the urge to not be a WxBoard hermit anymore. I'll try to post a somewhat more routine commentary over the next few weeks and much more detailed / comprehensive write-up at some point in late October when time allows. At this point, a few
    15 likes
  2. test1
    Brilliant sunset back in late August.
    4 likes
  3. test1
    Fantastic post, in agreement with your early thoughts. I believe we we looking at warmer than average winter, however things will line up on occasion for some cold periods (think 2-4, 3-6” clipper events with these passes) and a chance or two at a KU-esque event. It won’t be as brutal from a wx community aspect as last year, that’s for sure.
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  4. test1
    First off, I want to begin that I am completely blown away with the trove of information on this thread. I've spent hours reading through some of the material that interests me and I've learned more than I could've ever imagined since this type of stuff isn't taught in school. I've taken a large interest in AAM/GWO as of late. I feel like a have a fairly good grasp on it, however I am a bit confused by a post I stumbled upon if someone can explain this better to me. My confusion stems from the -MSLPa in the lee of the Himalayas. Everything I've come across and seen has -MSLPa over E Asia cor
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  5. test1
    Meteorologically speaking, I really don't think it means much. There are a few stats that say cold now=warm later; warm now=cold etc etc, but I find those ideas have minimal value vs trying to understand the background forcing resultant effect on the northern hemisphere wave guide effect on the SPV tropospheric response. From a non-meteorological perspective? The pessimist in me says that means we're cooked.
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  6. test1
    Kids do spread the virus. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/08/looking-at-children-as-the-silent-spreaders-of-sars-cov-2/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html And I have anecdotal evidence as a teacher in a private high school in Brooklyn. There's no question kids spread the virus. They thankfully don't seem to get as ill -- and it seems most don't get ill at all -- but they pass it on to their elders.
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  7. test1
    Good article and excellent video featuring Gov. Murphy and Dr. Fauci talking about New Jersey's very difficult start, being hit harder than anywhere else, mostly unexpectedly, and how NJ got control of the outbreak and then about the ongoing efforts to carefully reopen the economy (which Dr. Fauci lauded). He said NJ is well situated (being "deep green" on their 5-color grading chart, with deep green being the best) to reopen even a bit more (prudently) soon, given very low case rates and positivity percentages - much moreso than many states with far higher case/positivity rates.
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  8. test1
    Drove around today and noticed some of the trees are already beginning to turn.
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  9. test1
    I know this website. I thought you were referring to another site that had everything already plotted. Wishful thinking on my end haha.
    2 likes
  10. test1
    A -4sd ao in December during a la nina or near la nina year usually means heavy snow...there are exceptions but very few,,, 12/13/1966 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time NYC is getting snow and rain but NYC got 7" of snow on 12/24... 12/19/1995 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time the city is getting an 8" snowstorm... 12/29/2000 the ao goes below a -4sd...NYC got a foot of snow the next day... 12/18/2010 the ao goes below a -5sd...NYC got 20" of snow on 12/26-27... 1950 which is another la nina year had a -4sd ao on the 27th...at the same time NYC was gettin
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  11. test1
    Temperatures rose in the 70s across the region today. Tomorrow will likely be somewhat warmer with more sunshine than today. In the Rockies, Denver reached 91° today. That surpassed the previous daily record of 89°, which was set in 1992. It was also Denver's 75th 90° or warmer day. The previous annual record was 73 days in 2012. Temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. A cool shot is possible to open October. Phoenix has an implied 91% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a m
    2 likes
  12. test1
    Btw @WeathermanB, have you seen the new MS flight simulator? Holy moly. Totally photo realistic.
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  13. test1
    Here it is. This one. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
    2 likes
  14. test1
    I am an aviation enthusiast. I usually play this online flight simulator https://www.geo-fs.com/ to pass the time because that's one of my favorite hobbies. I am beginning the process of becoming a private pilot probably within the next month, entering a 25k scholarship that will pay for most of the expenses of becoming a private pilot. I will also be beginning the process of joining the USAF. I plan to work for a steady income as soon as I turn 18 (a little late) so I can upgrade to a better flight simulator.
    2 likes
  15. test1
    Interesting, but oversimplified correlations aren’t going to yield any new outcomes. You really want to focus on the research involving multiple independent variables, especially regarding weather forecasting. A factorial design would be the best way to look at all possible outcomes. Absent that level of research, it’s just another correlation (not inherently a bad thing here, just not shedding any new light on anything).
    2 likes
  16. test1
    As far as infecting adults, a lot of this may have to do with activities that different ages participate in. Young children do not go to frat parties, orgies, COVID parties, etc. And if you tell a younger kid to put a mask on because he could get very sick or make grandpa very sick, they're more likely just to listen. As for keeping clean, that may be a little harder. But if you have a few extra masks handy, little kids are more adaptable.
    1 like
  17. test1
    Would be best to avoid absolutist posts like this. Your follow-up posts are much better. The latest research is showing that kids under 10 don't seem to spread as much as older kids, but not zero, by any means, and older kids potentially spread just as much. The South Korean study that @Mophstymeoposted via the Times article is widely thought to be the best one so far on spread by epidemiologists, from what I've read and the Harvard study makes is absolutely clear that children have the "raw material" (similar or higher levels of viruses in their airways as adults). Probably the biggest re
    1 like
  18. test1
    Links Section In This Post, below the intro. I have been recently asked to start a thread, to talk about weather teleconnections and similar topics. This is often a topic not very well discussed on other weather places, and places like Twitter. We have a number of experts, enthusiasts, and meteorologists, who are knowledgeable in this area. So this is a thread for technical discussion about the teleconnections, etc, as well as a place for questions about these topics. We need to start talking about these climate drivers more, as they are the key to unlocking medium-long term forec
    1 like
  19. test1
    K-12 is being used differently than standard. K-12 is generally used for grade-level, not years. It's shown that kids in grades 5-12 (aged 10-18) *do* spread the virus without question. There is doubt about younger kids, but studies have shown just-as-high levels -- or even higher -- of viral load in young kids. Questions remain as to whether that higher viral load equals equal-or-greater transmission rates. https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-outbreak-and-kids
    1 like
  20. test1
    NYC Health officials went to Brooklyn today for a press conference. Let us just say it didn't go as planned.
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  21. test1
    Delete if too political, but crap like this, six months later, is absolutely infuriating.
    1 like
  22. test1
    Friday: NYC, for whatever reason, just continues to see the biggest increases in hospital and ICU populations. Was under 200/50 not that long ago, now you've got 250+/80. That's a not-exactly-subtle increase. The city needs to watch its back. Would love to see if the Ocean Parkway cluster is contributing to that, but it's a bit aggravating that more city residents are winding up in the hospital as opposed to other regions that have seen hotspots.
    1 like
  23. test1
    Kids resolve. Kids spread the virus. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/916413737/data-suggest-young-people-spread-covid-19-to-older-adults The CDC says coronavirus infection rates over the summer were highest in young adults. But in the South, increased infections among 20 to 39-year-olds preceded rises in infection in people over 60
    1 like
  24. test1
    I agree-they have to figure out a way to get schools back full time especially in areas (like mine) with low positive rates on testing. We are 2 days per week but it's not enough.
    1 like
  25. test1
    I built my current PC in early 2011.. Yea, it's very outdated. i7-2600k, 8gb, GTX 460 (not even that great for the time) - I put in a SSD like 4 years or so ago- so it still works well for a general home PC.. But yea it's not exactly a gaming computer anymore and could be argued it wasn't much of one to begin with. I picked out parts for a friend during this pandemic- a 3700x, 32gb ram, 1tb pci 4.0 m2 ssd drive - and a 2070 plus video card- he put it together - (rather easy nowadays) and he said the thing flies... One of these days I'd like to get into it again and build
    1 like
  26. test1
    Closing schools is absolutely cruel. Kids resolve. I hope it doesn't come to that.
    1 like
  27. test1
    Thanks! Also, do you, or anyone else know where I can access these charts? I feel like I'm spinning my wheels in teaching myself without access to these. I spoke with Matt Hugo a few months ago about them and he said to contact David Gold but I don't know how to get in touch with him.
    1 like
  28. test1
    Yeah. I was watching a stream of one of my online Discord friends flying a cessna 172 over Dover (My hometown). Needless to say I was simply amazed at the detail and could see my house 3D pre-generated along with my whole neighborhood. GeoFS doesn't have nearly that good of detail but it does use google maps satellite imagery and multiplayer (screenshot taken during a flight from BWI-BOS)
    1 like
  29. test1
    Great question! - I’ll leave it to the more experienced folks - and @Webberweather drops in here from time to time...
    1 like
  30. test1
    One of my favorite jazz pieces:
    1 like
  31. test1
    Like the Heinz move albeit slightly random lol. I’m thinking of moving into airline stocks. They’ve cratered and can only go up from here. Eventually, life will get back to normal.
    1 like
  32. test1
    Ah the good old days of pc building. Miss those days.
    1 like
  33. test1
    They certainly are, but to what affect it has on winter, level/range of predicability & accuracy are three of the biggest areas of uncertainty/still evolving. As you know, the atmosphere is so fluid and dynamic in nature it is going to take time to fully grasp how everything is teleconnected, and even if/when we do understand these better it still may be hard to forecast with certainty. Looking forward to this website you speak of. I'm interested!
    1 like
  34. test1
    I think there will be more than 1 Vaxx approved by Jan 1 and I like Q1 for large doses being given out. That`s why I see us back to normal by next summer.
    1 like
  35. test1
    Drought Continues to worsen in the NE.
    1 like
  36. test1
    I'm into gaming. I am looking into upgrading to a better GPU for my PC. Thinking about replacing the motherboard as well. I'll get the AORUS B550 ELITE Motherboard and the Nvidia RTX 3070 GPU or AMD RX 6000 Series GPU.
    1 like
  37. test1
    Oh I don't play anywhere near the amount I used to, but during the pandemic, there have been more opportunities lol.
    1 like
  38. test1
    I posted yesterday about the AO/NAO trending negative beginning next month (cold for Eastern US) which favors a +SAI. +SAI in October has been correlated to cold/snowy winters in the Northeast (and other areas too). While this isn't always accurate, it has gained enough traction over the years as something to be considered. What's interesting is this goes against the theory of cold Octobers = warm winters because generally speaking +SAI correlates with cold/snowy winters. Just thinking out loud here, not intended for debate.
    1 like
  39. test1
    This was just something quick I did. I just used NYC and Boston with Mathew.
    1 like
  40. test1
    This is a great post by Eric but a lot of this was triggered by teleconnections which I posted earlier about. There is also a CCKW/MJO influence which fuels this even more (on top of a warm southern GoM/W Carb). What Eric pointed out is likely enhancing this signal, but either way, definitely not dismissing this solution. https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1308705361365471233
    1 like
  41. test1
    We are a couple of days from the start of the Fall season and I thought now is as good a time as any to create a new thread to track 33andrain's official countdown to the Winter of 2020 and 2021. Phew...can you believe it is already the Fall? What a mess 2020 has been and I think we all could benefit from some good news in the form of snow (and lots of it) come December. We are very pleased and humbled to have @griteater start this year's countdown thread -- awesome seasonal forecaster. Grit's post was in response to another tremendous long range post by @donsutherland1 which also
    1 like
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