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  1. And speak of it: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/10/20/october-preliminary-2020-21-winter-outlook/ An interesting splash of factors, for the Eastern US: A basinwide moderate (possibly strong) La Nina this winter. A positive QBO Solar Minimum Atlantic SSTs favourable for a +NAO North Pacific SSTs favourable for a Aleutian Ridge. Average growth of Stratospheric Polar Vortex into winter, potential for SSWs later. Phase 3-6 MJO centred tropical base state Low sea ice in Barents-Kara Sea. Average snow coverage in Si
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  2. We saw a lot of this last year where the WAR post day 10 was simply undermodeled. Will take the lessons of last year and not look past day 10.
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  3. Great moderator. Much better debate. Hate Trump. Biden is bought and paid for. Neither of these people care about you and me at all. It’s just so hard to watch. So embarrassing.
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  4. Honestly so cool to see this. Typically, tropical transition like this occurs with smaller upper troughs, and the diabatic heating from the TC outflow tends to be powerful enough to fill in the surrounding upper trough. So usually, you'd see the upper divergence with an upper trough cause convection to form, then forming a surface trough which can form into a TC. That is the tropical transition that formed Epsilon, but as I said above, typically the upper troughing would be erased. However, the sheer size of this one means that the TC outflow cannot totally destroy this upper troug
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  5. Ready - get ready - as a lowly town councilman last year, I convinced the entire council to vote to ban any township elected official from holding any paid township position for five years from their last date as an officeholder,among a larger anti-nepotism ordinance. It's the strictest one in the state of NJ and I'm proud of my peers for agreeing to it. of course, I could have a nice cushy gov't job right now if I wasn't dumb enough to initiate it - but it shows there are still people out there doing things for the right reasons.
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  6. All those people with the "GIANT METEOR 2020" shirts are to blame.
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  7. I can actually hear both of them. Enjoying the debate tonight, they have both made some good points. It is a shame though, some narrow differences with virus handling has to turn into binary platforms that both parties will refuse given an inch. They are closer then they want to admit. Welker is doing great too
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  8. If anyone really wants to know why the mRNA-based vaccines require cryogenic (Pfizer) or freezer (Moderna) storage, this paper is worth a read. Basically, mRNA is a large, very unstable molecule if not kept very cold. In addition, the mRNA vaccine is encapsulated in a lipid nanoparticle formulation in order for the mRNA to be able to be delivered to the appropriate organs and tissues from the bloodstream before the mRNA is destroyed in the bloodstream (at room temp, the naked mRNA vaccine does not last long). For these reasons, there has never been a commercially successful mRNA vaccine bef
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  9. I’m not surprised at all tbh. Partisan politics aside, she’s a solid pick and the vast majority of Americans would objectively agree. It’s so bizarre because as bat shit crazy as Trump is he’s done well with his SCOTUS picks. Boggles the mind.
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  10. Just from current trends, I would expect significant shifts in temps this winter, some very cold periods and very warm periods mixed in.
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  11. I am so used to not doing certain stuff, It's easy. Zero desire to go to a play, a movie, an indoor gym, an indoor sporting event or a big indoor dinner. I work inside a glass office so I just yell at everyone through the glass. Hang in there
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  13. Anyway we need snow. That will settle everyone down. I am going back over to the weather. Regardless of who wins- I will be voting for a - NAO
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  14. Put me on the “this could go either way” Bingo block.
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  15. I have a feeling this solution will win out. Gonna have to be more patient for anything fun.
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  16. I watched both debates. I digest political information 24/7/365. I am currently serving as a campaign manager because that’s what I do when I’m not running myself. Kristen Welker won the debates. All of them. Despite long ties to democrats (I had her pegged as Hillary’s press sec if 2016 went the other way), she kept both candidates on task and pushed difficult topics with both. I think we would have all been better served having that strength in debate #1. We need more Sunday morning shows led by people like her. Last night, I thought Trump was mostly reasonabl
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  17. I watched this video a few weeks back & the article touches on it... I highly recommend it. Pfizer may be going to great lengths to ensure safe, properly temperature controlled distribution. But due to the abnormally cold conditions needed for this particular vaccine, there are still challenges on the receiving end for facilities that are to distribute the vaccine, especially toward rural communities. This video is a bit of a reality check, at least in terms of our current infrastructure. I'm quite curious to see if/how this is overcome. The video alludes to the idea that the Pfizer vaccin
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  18. every one of that team is always caught doing exactly what they accuse others of.
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  19. I WILL TELL YOU “TF WHAT.” I AM NOT VOTING FOR HUNTER BIDEN NOW!
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  20. That would support a cold start to November in the east
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  21. Good to see you here Zac. Love to hear your thoughts going forward
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  22. None of this is going to change any minds though - the issue is the same people that peddled the “bone cooking” nonsense here are the people pushing this. There’s zero credibility. The NY Post even backtracked on their own story. This is where we are. Joe Biden has been saying stupid things for years, and Barr’s own investigations have turned up zero. If his son is this deranged then his son should be in jail, obviously. Joe is not Hunter. I’m honestly failing to see the win here that is making trump push this stuff.
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  23. Today...and for the last 30-35 years or so...absolutely. Prior to that, believe it or not, there was a time when even lifelong politicians put the good of the country ahead of the good of their political party and/or their own aspirations. One of my favorite Presidents is John F Kennedy. A Democrat who put his country first. A real MAGA proponent. Reagan too. Regardless of your feelings of their policies, you knew these two wanted what was best for America. This country, while still a relatively great place to live, is in rapid decline. Anyone born before 1985 can see it. Sad.
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  24. Or there's enough numbness to all the corruption that except for a few caring people, it doesn't mean anything. What % of the electorate is going to care because if they voted for Biden, Trump was just as bad. Trump might have set a new low-bar for what it means to step down. Remember when Gary Hart had to step out?
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  26. Well, here comes the hump: Uh...yeah. 2,000 new cases for the first time in a long time. Bad thing. Very. BDB and Dr. Chokshi both discussed the city's vaccine plan today; the latter brought up a similar undertaking the DOHMH had - the smallpox vaccination of 1947, which was a big success for NYC. Cuomo, meanwhile, updated the colored zones for the state, and showed that more counties along the Southern Tier's border with PA are experiencing clusters which may be turning into community spread. In the meantime, Brooklyn sheds its orange zone, leaving a yellow and
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  27. Monmouth County jackpot is real.........lock it in!! Lmao
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  28. My 1st virtual snow of the year Getting my slanted ruler ready.
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  29. Important context in tweet below from Adam. I have noted the same tendency of GEFS/GFS to drop tropical cyclones in medium range, then bring them back in shorter range. (I believe his comment is mainly based on GEFS before the upgrade, but there is reason to believe this behavior persists after upgrade).
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  30. Don't sleep on W. Caribbean system just yet.
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  31. Last point here against an electoral landslide: I love the 538 tipping point graphic. Look where we are. Is it really difficult to imagine Trump carrying the four states closest to the line? This is going to be VERY close.
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  32. @PB GFI I'll tell you what really cracks me up. People who say they are voting for Biden because they want "change". How is voting for someone who has been in politics practically his whole adult life an example of "change"?
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  33. Mitt Romney was way more palatable to the middle than Trump is. He should have campaigned harder in the home stretch. Biden’s polling average is higher than it has been all cycle. Since he is a gaffe machine, he’s probably better off in his basement until Election Day.
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  34. For me, the race is historically stable and very one sided. Biden is way ahead of where Hillary ever was, and a shift 8 points in Trump's favor would just give him the slim win that he had in 2016. The remaining 10% chance he has now is just the chance that he randomly surges. Seems cut and dry at this point honestly
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  35. Good find. It reminded me of some other papers I had seen/posted about with regard to what's really going on with seriously ill COVID patients and today I came across an interesting literature review paper in Lancet - Respiratory Medicine, from some Mass General researchers analyzing cytokines and other biomarkers of inflammation, showing that seriously ill COVID-19 patients had moderately elevated interleukin-6 (a cytokine protein involved in immune system signaling) levels, but much lower than patients with other conditions such as cytokine release syndrome, sepsis, and acute respiratory dis
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  36. Early start to what should be a big winter for the upper Midwest
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  37. Polls were only off by a normal error in most states since Hillary was not leading by a whole lot. Plus, they didn't weight for education then, but do now. Trump will need a polling error in his favor several times bigger than 2016. Besides, if crowd sizes meant anything then Bernie would have been nominated
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  38. Ant - Your problem is that you haven't yet been red pilled (Matrix reference). You won't criticize the right much if at all, but have a big problem with the left. The two parties in this country are rotten to the core and it's very unhealthy when the vast majority of those voting are voting against the other candidate instead of for their candidate. You won't find but 20-25% max of Biden/Trump voters who are enthusiastic about their candidate. When you ask the other 75-80% on each side for whom they are voting, they will openly tell you [x] so that [y] doesn't win. It's really amazing. For my
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  39. No need to look at surface at this point but
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  40. Since December 21, 2016, 33andrain has operated with an informal set of guidelines. The lack of more formal guidelines has undoubtedly played a key role in some of the controversial exchanges which have occurred through the years. Dozens of posters have contacted us asking about expected etiquette, rules, how to handle trolls or annoying posters, when to use the report function, etc. It's just about that time again. WINTER. Our traffic is about to explode...with hundreds of posters engaging on the site at a time from now through March. Today, we will present basic guidelines to address concer
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