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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/06/2019 in all areas

  1. 20 points
    EPS and UKIE sure look delicious. The block on the Eps really caught my eye. That’s pretty classic and indicative of a coastal snowstorm. Let’s track and see
  2. 18 points
    This mother lovin' Scandinavian ridge might save us again, I can't believe it. Watch as it pops then migrates to the AO region and links up with the EPO ridge. Turns the AO negative.
  3. 16 points
    Follow 250mb then follow center Vort of the rounding wave thru the boundary
  4. 12 points
    We know, come Monday, there are only 9 shopping days left till Christmas...
  5. 11 points
    Agree with @PB GFI. @Allsnow also expressed similar sentiments over text this morning. Things really looking relatively good all through the forecasting period. I say relatively, because despite the hostile base state, we have been able to cash in with two snow events, with at least two more potential wintry events on the way. Last nights GEFS has that evolutionary look which would produce a snow event late in the first week of January. Deep Scandinavian block toward the end. Atlantic looks 75% better than it has over the past two weeks. Still needs some work. PNA needs some work. -EPO continues to rebuild. Note, surface temps are warm at the end of the EPS run, but likely wouldn’t be for much longer with the Aleutian trough developing. Not seeing much of a break, if any really at all, in December. A couple or even a few bouts of 2-3 days of 50s is pretty standard.
  6. 11 points
    I basically live on the set of a Hallmark movie...
  7. 9 points
    Truly magnificent setup for December 20-22 storm. It is worthy of a textbook.
  8. 9 points
    Gefs mean overall was fantastic, indie snow maps have been terribly off skewing the mean...if you look at mean MSLP it’s in line with euro GFS
  9. 8 points
  10. 8 points
    Really looking at the same issues that I posted about yesterday Meager snow growth is going to make it very hard for anyone to cash in on the limited precip once the BL cools
  11. 8 points
    Looking fly tracking this threat. Thanks @33andrain.
  12. 8 points
  13. 8 points
    I wouldn’t say that the Atlantic is the problem with this particular event, though I do agree with your sentiments overall. What’s killing us for the 14-17th potential is all of the disturbances lighting up North America like a Christmas tree. They’re flooding the CONUS and southern Canada with low pressure which removes the cold air source. That’s why I was so concerned with that secondary spoke in the northern stream. With so many energies involved, I don’t think modeling yet has a grasp on how to handle their interactions between each other and the ambient environment, which is evidenced by the contuining variance in the H5 depictions. That said, if we don’t start seeing some notable changes in the next few days, I think life support may be required to keep it alive lol I have seen some favorable hints toward my earlier thinking, though nothing has gone heart and soul towards it, and those positive hints have also been countered by less than ideal changes elsewhere. Long story short, I still want to take a deeper look before taking any firm stance.
  14. 7 points
  15. 7 points
    Anafronts are such fickle b****s. I don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling for this one after today’s trends...the EPO cold press behind the front is impressive, but it’s a matter of not squashing the energy trying to eject out of Texas. It’s a fine balancing act, the potential is still there but I think it’s probablisticaly less likely to pull off widespread accumulating snow at this juncture with this setup. I’ll hope the 0z’s trend the right way tonight! Still some hope for a minor event on the EPS but these have come down since yesterday.
  16. 7 points
    Every model has it, even the god awful EPS. This iteration of our new favorite teleconnection wouldn't turn the NAO negative or anything, but it could provide just enough of a punch at the higher latitudes to keep that big d10 system from cutting and make that more like a 13-14 type system. That winter was all EPO driven with some very high latitude NATL transient blocking to help boost our snow events. That is a Winter frequently brought up in analog packages for this winter. Interesting thinking Rb. I can get on board this. Just need to see how the modeling handles that Scand. blocking in future runs. Just confirmed there are some humdingers on the GEFS indies.
  17. 6 points
  18. 6 points
  19. 6 points
    This isn’t scientific (at least I don’t think) but I recall some of the biggies were step downs as is being depicted. This weekend is predominately rain, next week some snow and ice to rain and then... just sayin’...
  20. 6 points
    Phase 1 of the Guidelines Status: engaged.
  21. 6 points
    I think if guidance continues with the idea of a track over the interior today, then the likelihood of a thump dwindles a bit. That is, unless the synoptic evolution is favorable enough to drive low/mid level frontogenesis at the right time to take advantage of the low level cold & saturate the DGZ. What I am concerned about though with the front end is a legit period of icing. We know icing forecasts in the mid-range tend to verify less often than not... But if the HP does linger in that source region, it's going to be a problem. Especially when considering that we're +fifteen days into December by then, with minimal @SunAngleSteve issues to contend with. It may be an interesting balance as additional amplification on models will obviously push the system further inland & put the bulk of the board even further into the warm sector. But that increased venting would also amplify the ULJ... Depending on where the left exit region is placed upon the SLP's approach, the HP/CAD signal may actually increase. So essentially warmer mid-levels, but a longer duration period of pronounced low level cold. Hopefully we just trend in a better direction overall with the system & this is all for naught... But I figured it's something to keep in mind.
  22. 6 points
    I think that's just it's usual messed up thermals...If you look at its sim radar, you'll see one frame with a triangle of rain for those areas when all around is snow...it doesn't work that way.
  23. 6 points
    For NNJ - This would be nice to see if you were up at the time: But the fun ends in a hurry. Further S near @PB GFI country, this would indicate a nice, quick burst of moderate-heavy snow during the morning commute. Then bam, we dry out.
  24. 6 points
  25. 6 points
  26. 5 points
    this reminds me of January 9-10, 1965...I was out with my Friends in Manhattan on the 9th which was a Saturday night...it was mild and damp with temps in the 40's...No mention of snow in the forecast I think...Sunday morning I awoke to a heavy snow warning...6-8" fell in NYC that Sunday...it was a wave on a stalled front...
  27. 5 points
  28. 4 points
    I'm pretty sure when I made this it was the lag for 3-5 days before? Makes sense too, given that the blocking establishes itself a few days before the possible storm window. This is certainly a good period to watch, that strong blocking decaying over Hudson Bay is a classic signal.
  29. 4 points
  30. 4 points
    Went to the Delaware Water Gap today and was a bit in awe
  31. 4 points
  32. 4 points
    Officially 1 inch here. 3 on the grass. But that's 5 total so far by Dec 11. Big winter coming.
  33. 4 points
  34. 4 points
    Haven’t seen you in on a storm in a long time. When wx/pt speaks it’s tjme to listen
  35. 4 points
    The way it’s looking I’d be surprised if we even get an inch
  36. 4 points
    Yeah that was an impressive srefs run no doubt.
  37. 4 points
    With the artic blast coming after the snow it should make for a nice winter feel. Take this and run everyone! This month was forecasted to be a wash by many! Including myself
  38. 4 points
  39. 4 points
  40. 3 points
    Perspective right ? If I ever got 6 on Tuesday it`s a Home run. If I ever got 6 with that and Boston 30 it`s a disaster. Perspective
  41. 3 points
    Nice block setting up and a PNA rising in a good location/region. I know its not perfect but sht it s better than past set ups - move that TPV about 150 miles west and...........
  42. 3 points
  43. 3 points
  44. 3 points
    Went from hearing rain hitting the siding to silence. Just flipped to SN
  45. 3 points
  46. 3 points
  47. 3 points
    Rgem continues to be amped up like the Nam
  48. 3 points
    Looks like you guys on the coast will be getting a good snow this time. Even if it's just 2-4" you all deserve this one Here inland we might get an inch or two as far as I'm concerned but we might rain for the entire time.
  49. 3 points
    I made fun of this model, but it’s been dang consistent/persistent with this event.
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