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  1. 13 points
    We stay for T storm / Severe , Tors and Hurricane tracking. Winter is only one part of this community. We will all be here.
  2. 9 points
    I was wearing short sleeves today. Went to LI today with my fiancee to Roosevelt Field Mall to play Glowgolf.
  3. 9 points
    I think the only answers you are going to get is “lol at the 306 hr GFS this winter”.
  4. 8 points
    Perhaps within the context of ongoing warming, a photo of a local glacial erratic (at the New York Botanical Garden) is appropriate. Rather than misplaced boulders, perhaps digital images and video will provide reminders to future generations decades or centuries in the future of what past winters in the region were like. Split Rock: This large boulder is a glacial erratic. The last ice sheet began to melt back from the New York City region about 14,000 years ago, leaving behind a layer of clays, sands, and pebbles, as well as boulders known as glacial erratics. Glacial erratics are made up of rock materials not generally found in their immediate surroundings. This one is composed of Yonkers gneiss, which is different from the local bedrock. The split in this rock was likely caused by an ancient freezing and thawing cycle thousands of years ago.
  5. 6 points
    From CPC's accompanying discussion: Both the MJO and dynamical model guidance serve as the forecast basis for elevated odds of below-normal temperatures for the central and southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions... An updated monthly outlook... for Mar will be issued on Sat February 29 2020 The basis of the forecast, particularly the dynamical model guidance, has shifted significantly since February 20. The changes, barring a reversal, will very likely lead to a significantly different forecast being issued on February 29. For me, the base case has been and remains a warmer than normal March and spring. The recent evolution of the CFSv2 toward a warmer March has strengthened my confidence in my thoughts for March. The persistence of the strong polar vortex suggests that the March base case is a fairly high confidence one.
  6. 6 points
    I took a look at past Februaries with a strong stratospheric polar vortex and +AO and how they rolled into March...this year is close to unprecedented in terms of strength of the stratospheric PV and how strong the +AO is in February... Here is the full set: Here are years with some similarities in the hemispheric pattern to this February: Both sets feature generally cooler conditions in the west and warmer in the east, with the smaller set isolated years with similar patterns to this February only amplifying that. Years that had a strong phase 7-8-1 MJO propagation in the second half of February or first half of March sometimes ended up colder...as did years in which the stratospheric PV weakened quicker in March. Neither seems likely this year. Mid-long range models seem to be hinting at a cold west, mild east pattern heading into March with perhaps some brief cool downs into New England. It doesn't look good for any hope of a late rally, sadly. This winter sucks.
  7. 6 points
    January was the warmest January on record globally, but ok.
  8. 6 points
  9. 6 points
    This is not a pleasant response to write, but it reflects my growing concern regarding the state of U.S. modeling and NOAA leadership. I increasingly believe that the NOAA leadership, not NWS, lacks strategic understanding of the situation that plagues the state of U.S. modeling. The NOAA leadership neither understands that the problem is structural in nature nor that it is the result of many issues, not just computing power. Without a strategic sense of what it takes to substantially improve model performance i.e., superior initialization schemes, rapid implementation of leading-edge science, deep connections to key stakeholders in the forecasting-research-science ecosystems, and a capacity to simultaneously conduct experiments and trials that lead to further innovations, simply increasing computing power won't do much to address existing structural performance gaps. Today, when it comes to model initialization, the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF all use the far more sophisticated 4D var data assimilation approach. The U.S. does not. To be blunt, the reality that the U.S. does not use the best-in-practice initialization scheme is indefensible. First, the 4D var system is not new. The ECMWF implemented it in late 1997. For an analogy, this is the equivalent of the U.S. using the Nokia 6110 mobile phone in today's world of the iPhone 11. There is no comparison between the two devices. Similarly, there is no comparison between the two initialization schemes. The argument about difficulty in making the transition is also weak. That something is difficult is not a rational basis for avoidance. It is not a valid excuse for maintaining the status quo. In fact, it took the ECMWF less than two years to make the transition from 3D var to 4D var: Twenty years ago ECMWF added an extra dimension – time – to the assimilation of observational data into weather models. This pioneering ‘4D-Var’ technique has led to substantial improvements in the Centre’s forecasts. Developing a 4D variational data assimilation system was one of ECMWF’s biggest-ever projects. It culminated in the operational implementation of 4D-Var on 25 November 1997, less than two years after the introduction of 3D-Var. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2017/20-years-4d-var-better-forecasts-through-better-use-observations Sound decisions and investments in effort can make big differences over time. The ECMWF's superior position is the result of sound decision making and a willingness to embrace best practices. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy was supposed to have been the U.S. modeling community's "Sputnik Moment." Back in 1957, the U.S. was jarred by the reality that the USSR had surpassed it in the Space Race with the launch of the Sputnik 1. In response, the U.S. rapidly and decisively rose to the occasion. It rapidly achieved breakthroughs in science and pioneered new technologies. As a result, it leapfrogged the USSR. In 1969, the U.S. sent astronauts to the moon. Now nearly eight years after Hurricane Sandy, there is no similar tale of U.S. resilience and recovery. Instead, the U.S. has fallen further behind in modeling. The ECMWF has expanded its edge. The UKMET remains locked in second place. Canada's GGEM has now moved ahead of the GFS into third place. Adoption of the FV-3 core saw the GFS suffer from a decrease in forecasting accuracy in 2019 while all the other major global models saw continuing improvements. With a "sunk cost" fallacy constraining NOAA decision making, it remains unlikely that the U.S. will set aside the FV-3. Instead, more than likely, it will build upon a fundamentally flawed core. In turn, that outcome will further lock in existing performance deficits. The notion that simply increasing computing power, and by a smaller amount than the UKMET, for example, will cure what ails U.S. modeling is illusion. The problem is both structural and far more complex than a matter of hardware.
  10. 6 points
    Thank you and @SnowWolf87 I don't think I could have been much clearer. Hey, maybe I bust in the end , but I have been posting that I don't like the pattern before the cold shot. It's just one of the winters. BAM ended this on Jan 12, @Snowy Hibbo warned me Geo in mid Jan about the AO. @33andrain texted me in late Jan and said it's 100% done and I held on until the last days of Jan and changed my busted Feb forecast to snowless and plus 5. It's a top 3 bad winter and I didn't see this coming at all.
  11. 5 points
    The first step to healing is admitting you have a problem. This is progress.
  12. 5 points
    The referenced chart has two big problems: 1. It ends with 2000. The world has warmed an additional 0.50°C since then. 2. It discounts the global scale of what is actually happening. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXXOkhoki8s Source: NASA Unlike with past climate evolutions, natural forcings (solar, volcanic, etc.) cannot explain the ongoing warming. Only when anthropogenic forcings are added to the mix does one get a good fit with the temperature trend. Source: https://archive.epa.gov/epa/climate-change-science/causes-climate-change.html The science is unequivocal concerning ongoing climate change and its driver. The scientific consensus is overwhelming. Internal variability still occurs. It is occurring within the context of the increased anthropogenic forcing that has been driving the observed warming. Nevertheless, some changes have been observed. For example, the changes in ocean temperatures have been linked to a somewhat increased tendency for the MJO's convection to be located in the Maritime Continent phases (warmer phases during the winter).
  13. 5 points
    I’m sorry but everyone has been brainwashed with climate change this, climate change that. We are warming right now but as you see above this is perfectly normal. So people stopped being brainwashed please. This is what’s wrong with today’s world. One person says it everyone else follows. No one thinks for themselves anymore!
  14. 5 points
    I promise you there is zero hope coming. And I told him that as well. Winter ended on Dec 22nd. We came to terms with this just as Feb started. Anyone hanging on now is certifiable.
  15. 5 points
    The good thing is the summer is coming. I suggest Anthony get on a treadmill. Sun`s out Gun`s out.
  16. 5 points
    Great so instead of taking an hour for the GFS to finish its run and show us how poor it is...now it will only take 50 minutes! Yay.
  17. 5 points
  18. 5 points
    No, I see cold and dry and a cutter here and there.
  19. 4 points
    The reality is that beyond one season those forecasts have little skill.
  20. 4 points
    Joe D'Aleo. Here's who stole winter. EOS.
  21. 4 points
    Obs today in southern Colorado , heading to wolf creek
  22. 4 points
    This was a year before my nana passed away . I miss the good times. My dad and nana were good cooks.
  23. 4 points
    This should pretty much put a wrap on the season as the trough spills back out west
  24. 4 points
    Sorry guys. When there's nothing but LP in Canada these will cut. That has always been the idea and that's what the EPS sees. Just not sure how anyone continues to get duped with this stuff.
  25. 4 points
    This isn’t a bad look at all. Biggest problem it’s 8 days out
  26. 3 points
  27. 3 points
    Winter storm watch for me up in Oswego for 2 feet plus of snow
  28. 3 points
    Yes I noticed that time stamp as well, old data. Like @donsutherland1 just mentioned, I'd be shocked if there weren't alot more warmer tones over the E on the next update.
  29. 3 points
    I think this busts badly. March opens up on a cool note but by the second week we could be running well above average numbers, with the potential for some early season warmth coming by early mid month according to ensembles/cfs weeklies. I have no inclination to go against this at this time.
  30. 3 points
    Ahh. Thanks for posting this! A group of us at work were wondering why so much smog today. This is from Jersey City facing west.
  31. 3 points
    so you are a climate denier based upon a 14 day cold period more than 2 years ago? That’s honestly a new one for me. the debate from deniers these days isn’t if we are warming anymore it’s why we are warming. Nobody denies we are warming...at least keep up with the denier community
  32. 3 points
    Hurricane Nana has a ring to it My grandma was a fierce little lady lol
  33. 3 points
    Intriguing for sure isn't it? The waters are quite anomalously warm and any trough that decides to run far enough into that strong WAR could eventually leave something behind to spin up. I'm also quite excited for a strong start to the severe weather season. Those same warm waters may reduce marine layer and backdoor influence as we move into spring and taking that out of the equation with what I expect to be a mild and wet start to spring could mean increasing chances for severe weather into later march and april.
  34. 3 points
    @SnowWolf87 is ripping right now lmao pretty sure you’re the one on the roll because your comments are like butter right now This is me just generally thinking out loud, but also positing for the sake of discussion, but, some things are catching my eye for the possibility of some heightened early-season tropical development; namely the state of the western Atlantic anomalies and the long-standing persistence of this progressive pattern. There is and has been a clear propensity for low-level ridging to propagate across the southern Mid-latitudes/northern Sub-tropics, and I could easily see how we get at least one late-season cool shot that penetrates quite far equatorward, and then as that front would slow and decay, the low-level ridging over the top would enhance the low-level convergence and with the anomalously warm SSTs in the region potentially force a system to spin up close to the mainland. I can’t say for certain as I haven’t put much thought into this yet, but it might be worth looking into as we get closer to this season. @donsutherland1, might you have any statistics regarding the historical context of similar mid- to late-winter progressions and early-season tropical activity (say, April 1- June 15, roughly)?
  35. 3 points
    It was 300 plus hours away when it was a "strong miller b". What happened? What happened was models are never accurate at that range. Wtf is going on is exactly what myself and others told you but no one wanted to listen.
  36. 3 points
    This has been driven by it's MJO projection erroneously hanging around phase 8 the last week and starting to correct away. Awful model.
  37. 3 points
    Morning thoughts... The preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is +5.837. That is the third highest value on record. Tomorrow could see the AO approach or exceed the record preliminary value of +6.342, which was set on February 10. Today was also the 4th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. The polar vortex remains extraordinarily large and strong. Stratospheric temperatures from 30 mb down to 100 mb are at daily record low figures. Overall, the polar vortex will likely retain its structure and abnormal strength through at least the next 10 days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. Below are composite February and March 500 mb patterns for 1989 and 1990 and the February 1-18, 2020 500 mb pattern. Based on the above charts, the cold monthly outlook for March currently shown on the CFSv2 could be suspect.
  38. 3 points
    Some PNS reports from the snowstorm in the Southeast: 000 NOUS42 KMHX 211006 PNSMHX NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-212206- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 506 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...North Carolina... ...Beaufort County... Bath 2.8 in 0933 PM 02/20 Public 1 SSW Chocowinity 2.0 in 1110 PM 02/20 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Pinetown 2.0 in 1023 PM 02/20 Public ...Craven County... Vanceboro 3.7 in 1130 PM 02/20 Public 1 ENE Fort Barnwell 2.0 in 1100 PM 02/20 Public ...Duplin County... 3 SW Bowdens 1.5 in 0845 PM 02/20 Amateur Radio ...Greene County... Snow Hill 4.0 in 0414 AM 02/21 Public ...Lenoir County... 1 ESE Kinston 3.5 in 1120 PM 02/20 Public 1 ESE Kinston 3.0 in 0939 PM 02/20 Public ...Pitt County... 2 N Farmville 3.8 in 0123 AM 02/21 Public Grifton 3.5 in 0310 AM 02/21 Public && 000 NOUS42 KRAH 210829 PNSRAH NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-212029- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 329 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon ...North Carolina... ...Alamance County... 1 S Mebane 2.8 in 1100 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.28W 1 W Burlington 2.3 in 1000 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.47W Burlington 2.0 in 1015 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.45W ...Chatham County... 6 W Bynum 1.8 in 0732 PM 02/20 35.78N/79.25W 1 NE Siler City 1.5 in 0607 PM 02/20 35.73N/79.45W 1 ENE Goldston 1.4 in 0657 PM 02/20 35.60N/79.31W ...Cumberland County... 5 NNE Fayetteville 0.8 in 1021 PM 02/20 35.15N/78.87W Hope Mills 0.5 in 0822 PM 02/20 34.97N/78.95W 5 NNE Fayetteville 0.5 in 0911 PM 02/20 35.15N/78.87W Fayetteville 0.5 in 0921 PM 02/20 35.07N/78.90W ...Davidson County... 3 WNW Lexington 1.0 in 0608 PM 02/20 35.82N/80.31W Thomasville 1.0 in 0611 PM 02/20 35.89N/80.08W ...Durham County... 7 SE Gorman 2.7 in 1017 PM 02/20 35.97N/78.72W 1 SSE Parkwood 2.1 in 1147 PM 02/20 35.88N/78.90W Durham 2.0 in 0902 PM 02/20 35.98N/78.92W 1 SSE Parkwood 2.0 in 1008 PM 02/20 35.88N/78.90W ...Forsyth County... 3 W Pfafftown 1.0 in 0600 PM 02/20 36.15N/80.36W ...Franklin County... 3 NE Youngsville 4.0 in 0912 PM 02/20 36.06N/78.44W 4 ENE Franklinton 3.8 in 1030 PM 02/20 36.13N/78.39W Youngsville 3.0 in 1250 AM 02/21 36.03N/78.48W ...Guilford County... 3 SSW Gibsonville 2.0 in 0630 PM 02/20 36.07N/79.57W 5 E Colfax 2.0 in 0800 PM 02/20 36.12N/79.93W 2 SSE Summerfield 2.0 in 0815 PM 02/20 36.18N/79.88W Greensboro 1.5 in 0929 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.83W High Point 1.3 in 0630 PM 02/20 35.98N/80.00W ...Halifax County... Roanoke Rapids 2.5 in 0918 PM 02/20 36.45N/77.65W ...Harnett County... Coats 1.5 in 0745 PM 02/20 35.41N/78.67W 3 E Pineview 1.5 in 0815 PM 02/20 35.31N/79.03W 2 SSW Benson 1.5 in 1105 PM 02/20 35.35N/78.56W ...Johnston County... Benson 2.5 in 1005 PM 02/20 35.38N/78.55W 1 E Linwood 2.2 in 0801 PM 02/20 35.75N/78.30W 3 NNW Flowers 2.0 in 0700 PM 02/20 35.70N/78.37W 2 E Pine Level 2.0 in 1042 PM 02/20 35.51N/78.21W Clayton 1.9 in 0722 PM 02/20 35.65N/78.46W 6 N Coats Crossroads 1.9 in 0926 PM 02/20 35.61N/78.56W 5 WNW Coats Crossroads 1.5 in 0645 PM 02/20 35.54N/78.63W Emit 1.5 in 0731 PM 02/20 35.73N/78.27W 2 E Pine Level 1.2 in 0902 PM 02/20 35.51N/78.21W 6 NNW Coats Crossroads 1.2 in 1200 AM 02/21 35.59N/78.60W ...Lee County... Broadway 1.5 in 0709 PM 02/20 35.46N/79.05W ...Montgomery County... Troy 2.8 in 0916 PM 02/20 35.36N/79.89W Star 2.0 in 0839 PM 02/20 35.40N/79.78W Candor 1.8 in 0932 PM 02/20 35.29N/79.74W ...Moore County... 4 SW Carthage 2.3 in 0956 PM 02/20 35.31N/79.47W ...Orange County... 2 N Efland 2.5 in 0730 PM 02/20 36.09N/79.17W 4 NNW Efland 2.1 in 0630 PM 02/20 36.12N/79.20W 2 S Carr 2.0 in 0604 PM 02/20 36.19N/79.22W ...Person County... Roxboro 3.3 in 0757 PM 02/20 36.40N/78.98W ...Randolph County... 4 SE Asheboro 1.8 in 0745 PM 02/20 35.68N/79.76W 3 ENE Seagrove 1.5 in 0742 PM 02/20 35.56N/79.73W Asheboro 1.0 in 0517 PM 02/20 35.72N/79.81W ...Sampson County... 2 W Spivey`s Corner 1.8 in 1100 PM 02/20 35.25N/78.56W ...Vance County... Henderson 2.8 in 0925 PM 02/20 36.32N/78.41W ...Wake County... 4 NE Wendell 3.1 in 1001 PM 02/20 35.83N/78.31W 4 NE Rdu International 3.0 in 0947 PM 02/20 35.91N/78.73W 5 SSW Garner 2.8 in 0951 PM 02/20 35.62N/78.67W Purnell 2.7 in 0920 PM 02/20 36.03N/78.57W 2 N Raleigh 2.5 in 0831 PM 02/20 35.85N/78.66W 3 S Falls Lake 2.5 in 1020 PM 02/20 35.89N/78.58W 4 NNE Raleigh 2.3 in 0856 PM 02/20 35.87N/78.64W 6 W Falls Lake 2.3 in 0924 PM 02/20 35.94N/78.68W 1 S Cary 2.2 in 0800 PM 02/20 35.77N/78.80W Wake Forest 2.0 in 0825 PM 02/20 35.97N/78.52W 5 W Purnell 2.0 in 0914 PM 02/20 36.03N/78.65W 2 NNW Fuquay-Varina 2.0 in 1040 PM 02/20 35.62N/78.81W 4 SSW Raleigh 1.8 in 1200 AM 02/21 35.77N/78.68W 2 WSW Holly Springs 1.7 in 1000 PM 02/20 35.64N/78.86W 2 NE New Hill 1.5 in 1100 PM 02/20 35.70N/78.88W ...Warren County... 1 N Arcola 1.8 in 0613 PM 02/20 36.29N/77.98W ...Wayne County... 1 SW Goldsboro 2.0 in 1110 PM 02/20 35.36N/77.99W 3 N Mar-Mac 1.1 in 0845 PM 02/20 35.37N/78.06W ...Wilson County... Lucama 2.3 in 0955 PM 02/20 35.64N/78.01W 2 ESE New Hope 2.0 in 0858 PM 02/20 35.79N/77.92W && 000 NOUS41 KAKQ 210832 PNSAKQ MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525-212032- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon ...Maryland... ...Somerset County... Crisfield 0.3 in 0938 PM 02/20 37.98N/75.85W Eden 0.3 in 0936 PM 02/20 38.28N/75.65W ...Worcester County... Ocean City 0.1 in 0939 PM 02/20 38.36N/75.07W ...North Carolina... ...Gates County... Corapeake 2.0 in 1130 PM 02/20 36.53N/76.58W ...Hertford County... Ahoskie 3.0 in 0843 PM 02/20 36.29N/76.99W ...Virginia... ...Accomack County... Bloxom 2.5 in 1008 PM 02/20 37.83N/75.62W Quinby 2.0 in 0942 PM 02/20 37.56N/75.73W 2 NE Atlantic 1.0 in 0714 PM 02/20 37.92N/75.48W Chincoteague 0.5 in 0938 PM 02/20 37.95N/75.36W ...Brunswick County... Gasburg 4.0 in 1000 PM 02/20 36.57N/77.90W ...Chesterfield County... 3 S Meadowville 1.7 in 0739 PM 02/20 37.33N/77.33W ...City of Chesapeake County... 2 SSE Hickory 2.0 in 1230 AM 02/21 36.63N/76.21W ...City of Franklin County... Franklin 5.1 in 1100 PM 02/20 36.69N/76.94W ...City of Newport News... 1 ESE Oyster Point 1.0 in 0716 PM 02/20 37.10N/76.49W ...City of Norfolk... 2 SE Norview 0.4 in 0120 AM 02/21 36.87N/76.23W ...City of Petersburg... 1 W Petersburg 3.0 in 0817 PM 02/20 37.21N/77.41W ...City of Suffolk... Downtown Suffolk 4.0 in 0115 AM 02/21 36.72N/76.59W ...City of Virginia Beach... 2 WNW Princess Anne 2.0 in 1215 AM 02/21 36.77N/76.09W ...Gloucester County... 1 NNW Gloucester Point 3.0 in 1100 PM 02/20 37.28N/76.50W ...Greensville County... Purdy 4.0 in 1044 PM 02/20 36.82N/77.59W ...Henrico County... 1 W Fair Oaks 0.6 in 0815 PM 02/20 37.53N/77.34W Varina 0.5 in 0900 PM 02/20 37.45N/77.35W ...Isle of Wight County... Zuni 3.0 in 1100 PM 02/20 36.87N/76.82W Carrsville 3.0 in 0732 PM 02/20 36.71N/76.83W Windsor 2.5 in 1230 AM 02/21 36.81N/76.74W ...James City County... Lightfoot 3.4 in 0952 PM 02/20 37.34N/76.75W Toano 2.5 in 1000 PM 02/20 37.38N/76.80W ...Lunenburg County... 2 N Dundas 3.0 in 0925 PM 02/20 36.95N/78.03W ...Mathews County... Soles 3.5 in 1030 PM 02/20 37.49N/76.44W Mathews 2.0 in 1030 PM 02/20 37.44N/76.32W Gwynn 1.5 in 1009 PM 02/20 37.50N/76.29W ...Mecklenburg County... Bracey 2.3 in 0856 PM 02/20 36.60N/78.14W ...Prince George County... 2 SSE Fort Lee 2.0 in 0930 PM 02/20 37.21N/77.32W 2 SE Richard Bland College 2.0 in 0854 PM 02/20 37.15N/77.35W 1 W Prince George 2.0 in 0830 PM 02/20 37.22N/77.31W 4 NNW Barham 2.0 in 0706 PM 02/20 37.19N/77.15W ...Southampton County... Courtland 5.0 in 0245 AM 02/21 36.71N/77.06W 1 WNW Hunterdale 3.0 in 0731 PM 02/20 36.71N/76.98W ...Sussex County... 1 NW Wakefield 3.6 in 1029 PM 02/20 36.98N/77.00W ...York County... Yorktown 3.0 in 1210 AM 02/21 37.24N/76.51W Grafton 2.0 in 0838 PM 02/20 37.17N/76.47W &&
  39. 3 points
    I have a feeling we all may not be tracking a winter storm together until the next winter season.
  40. 3 points
    I love listening to/reading JB and have learned a lot from him over the last few years, but I’ve gotta be honest and say that I’m growing pretty frustrated with him over the last several weeks. I feel like he has completely lost sight of the goal of objective analysis and is grasping at any straw he can find to support his forecast/cold and snow bias. He seems to be completely ignoring anything that counters his hopes (which is a lot lol) and it’s really getting annoying. He’s trying to draw comparisons to past patterns and setups that just are not there and then project those comparisons onto the modeling and it’s getting pretty painful to watch, as he seems to be getting drawn into the fool’s hope repeatedly and making the same mistakes over and over. Glad that’s off my chest. Back to silently following aha
  41. 3 points
  42. 3 points
    Go back and read the last 4 pages of posts. " another fake day 8 snowstorm " " the air mass in front is AN and you will rain" " The EPS is too far N with the snow, it's no good for us ". " i don't think this is a real chance " Enough with the response of " the models have been bad " , they have not missed a single rainer all year. Snow Wolf and I both posted yesterday, the H comes in behind and is not sitting over the top. You don't look at patterns at all. There's been no winter and no one cares who busted, it's been over for weeks now because the same anomalies you see now have been present since late December. So why would the results be any different now when you are soon going to be dealing with March Normals that couldn't produce in mid January with it's colder Normals. The set ups are just wrong. Yes it gets cold for 5 or so days, I posted on it and in that post I told you , it's probably dry. Just wet before and I bet after.
  43. 3 points
    He literally could not have been clearer he didn’t think it would work out. Repeatedly said you would end Feb with what you have. Come on man. As for models I am not arguing this again - but they aren’t nearly as bad as you claim. They have called out storm signals two weeks out nearly all winter. It’s not their fault it’s not snow.
  44. 3 points
    Like I said this morning, you will be cold and dry and warm up when LP arrives. What good does a few dry BN days after another rainstorm man.
  45. 3 points
    It`s not Arctic at all. You are AN at 192 and that`s why you will rain
  46. 3 points
    Not going into March yet but my answer for the rest of FEB is an emphatic NO. As long as the trough continues to park itself over Alaska energy will continue to dive into the W and allow the same height rises in the E ahead of the storms that we have seen all this winter and last. Simple. With nothing in the ATL to push something under they just continue to cut. Only difference ahead is if the EPO does turn NEG and PNA spikes we will have a significant cold shot, however most likely not correspondent with any energy because the only way that cold can really bleed in is after a system cuts and drags it down, as soon as system is approaching, the overarching pattern says heights rise ahead of it.
  47. 3 points
    Lot of negativity here as per usual, but considering the GFS, CMC, Euro, eps have a fairly strong agreement/ storm signal figured maybe there might be a discussion here.... Of course granted it's 7-9 days out but it's something which has been rare lately especially with model agreement on a storm signal.
  48. 3 points
    Welp, @Snowman11 wont be sleeping for the next 3 days
  49. 3 points
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