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  1. 11 points
    I have highlighted 4 areas in the Pacific which early on I find encouraging early on. In area 1 you will find a slight Modoki signature . With the warmer anomalies near the D/L it should be the focus of increased convention there. I also like seeing where the warmer anomalies are showing up in areas 2 and 3. One is focused near the Aleutians and one OFF the coast of California. That's crucial IMO, because area 4 is cool and the greatest heat content is out near 140 still east of Hawaii and in a perfect spot. I like when I see negatives pulled that far back off the west coast ( that warm patch tells me theres a pretty good chance it could set up there ) because it allows for ridges to build through the Rockies and puts the trough axis in a pretty good spot along the east coast.
  2. 10 points
    I unfortunately do not have as great a wealth of knowledge to lend out on this topic, but just from looking at the magnitude of the AAM graphed from the past 365 days, it seems that we are in opposite AAM states between this time last year and now. If I'm interpreting this correctly, it seems like there is a misconception that last winter had a primarily -AAM, and people are fretting over the future of this winter because we are again in a -AAM... In contrast, there was a rather +AAM last winter, peaking in February—when we had a very La Nina-esque look in the U.S. ... At least, with regards to the SE ridge dominating the weather on the east coast, with a equally dominating western trough. La Nina 500mb heights in February (Feb +SOI Correlations to represent) +AAM 500mb heights in February Observed 500mb heights in February 2019 ... Despite the solidly +AAM, the height anomalies were not reflective of a +AAM regime. I've noticed Snowy Hibbo trying to stress the point that the AAM state currently being observed is not a death sentence for the upcoming winter in the east, and a -AAM regime does not necessarily look bad for the DJF trimonthly period for 500mb heights. DJF 500mb Anomalies for -AAM TL;DR - The AAM between last winter and this upcoming winter are in opposite states - The current -AAM does not guarantee a warm/snowless winter - Last year's solid +AAM in February, which AAM state is correlated with a pattern that's favorable for wintery weather in the east overall, did not having a matching weather pattern ... Correlation /=/ causation
  3. 10 points
    I was curious if the typhoon recurve and simultaneous +East Asian Mountain Torque would be enough to shake us out of the -AAM state we've been in since the end of June...the mid-range models and ensembles are a resounding no with a parade of mid-latitude ridges persisting, which is a decidedly -AAM look. As has been discussed, that likely increases the potential for an earlier flip to winter (which has arguably started in the Plains/Rockies) as La Ninas/-AAM years tend to have colder Decembers than El Ninos. With that said, the tropics to continue to look Nino-ish with forcing over the western Indian Ocean, and per the CFS and to an extent the EPS weeklies re-developing over the central Pac by November. I'm guessing the end result of this is we get early cold (November/December) driven by a -EPO. The analogs with Nino forcing generally have a more -NAO through the winter than those that don't, many developing the -NAO by December...we have that forcing in the tropics, but I'm curious to see how the extra-tropical pattern that looks to remain -AAM/La Nina-like interacts with that. Either way it seems unlikely that the US is completely devoid of cold anytime soon, and as wavelengths quickly get longer over the next several weeks that will dump into the eastern U.S. more frequently. Also be careful with the EPS, it wreaks of the mean of 51 wavy solutions cancelling each other out in the mid-range...the pattern will not be zonal like it has (though the mean trough may still be over the western/central US like it's had, just a lot deeper than the mean would suggest)
  4. 10 points
    September data for the QBO and AMO are in as some have noted: - QBO dropped from 9.97 to 8.25 - AMO dropped from .335 to .242 SEP SST: Of note: - North Pacific is blazing warm - Warmth around Greenland and North Atlantic - Cooling in eastern ENSO regions is a bit more pronounced - Warmth around the dateline/Modoki region is more pronounced - Warm-cold-warm tripole in Atlantic is gone - Cool waters around Australia My SST analogs from August/September are still holding steady. No changes needed IMO: You get this look in winter:
  5. 5 points
    If the EPO is negative, there will not be a raging SE ridge like the UKMET shows. A -WPO vs EPO, where the AK ridge is much further west, then yes, we could have a SE Ridge. But a pure -EPO does not promote a SE Ridge.
  6. 5 points
    Only a matter of time before the next big temperature stepdown occurs in Canada. The albedo is rising in Canada, and currently the temps up in the archipelago are hovering in the teens to low 20s. Once the polar vortex strengthens it will get much colder. The recent snowstorms in the northern U.S are gonna mean an early winter and faster cooling of the U.S.
  7. 5 points
    I am only posting this for trend analysis purposes, but if the pattern flips like this in early November, it will surely get the attention of the entire nation, especially the eastern half, also even though there looks to be a ridge building east at the end of the run, the temps at the surface under that ridge are cold.
  8. 5 points
    These are the two years that work with that table and my broad set of QBO analog years. Not bad.
  9. 4 points
    My sincere question is what quantitative analytical information is imputed to ascertain the NAO forecast with these models? If some important pieces of information in this Grand Solar Min and even SST in this region as we are seeing a nice warm pool collect (map below) are not inputted then you get a totally skewed result IMO. I take these with grans of salt and wait for TS (Isotherm) and others (like you, Hibbo, Armando, JH, Dougie Snow, etc) to give us the GWO, AAM, QBO, IO, etc which will help lend us an idea to where this may go. Modoki here Spotless Days Current Stretch: 8 days2019 total: 207 days (73%)2018 total: 221 days (61%) Thermosphere Climate Index today: 4.37x1010 W Cold Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957) Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009 Cosmic rays = cloud nucleation - very very new analysis Oulu Neutron Counts Percentages of the Space Age average: today: +9.9% High 30-day change: +0.1% Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009) Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991
  10. 4 points
  11. 3 points
    i dont see it. Oftentimes we get an inversion and the strongest winds dont mix down. This will be one of those where out here we gust to 45, yet hear the LLJ roaring up above. I really doubt the east end gusts to 75+ (remember that map is in knots). I'm thinking JFK, FRG, ISP gust 45 range, out east few gusts to 55. NYC wont gust over 35
  12. 3 points
    The look at the end of the run sure looks nice. East based blocking and a very nice PNA ridge. The trough in the east would verbatim be too zonal and flat for any explosive cyclogenesis/noreasters, but the lakes would get some early LES with the NW flow. The look will change, but right now the GFS wants a cooler pattern through Friday. Then a ridge builds in for Saturday through mid-week next week. Then a switch to troughing in the east.
  13. 3 points
    if you don't like cold or snow except for Christmas than 1912-13 is the winter for you...only 15" fell for the season and 11 of those " fell Christmas eve... Christmas night and the next day got numerous snowstorms...2010, 1969, 1947 to name a few of those years...dates with the most heavy December snows are the 19th and 26th...
  14. 3 points
    not many years had a snowstorm in full force Christmas morning...there are some for Christmas afternoon and night like 2002 and 1976...1966 came the closest to having snow Christmas morning...there was a 7" storm ending 4am Christmas morning...Newark in 1960 had a little snow Christmas eve on top of a leftover 2" from previous storms...1961 had a 10 inch storm that ended around midnight Christmas eve...1962 had 2" on the ground from previous storms Christmas morning and got a little snow Christmas afternoon...1963 had six inches on the ground Christmas morning...there was a four hour period of snow Christmas eve evening that whitened the leftover snow from the 23rd...from 1959 to 1963 Newark had at least 2" of snow on the ground Christmas morning...the streak ended when the 3" of snow that fell on the 20th in 1964 melted Christmas eve before a warm Christmas day...70 around Newark...60 in Central Park...
  15. 3 points
    I agree with you on that. The one weather occurrence that I was never able to witness (yet at least) is waking up on Christmas morning and see snow falling. December 2002 saw light snow on Christmas Eve, rain on Christmas morning, and then snow falling during the afternoon. December 2010 came a day too late (boxing day blizzard). Even December 1995 had snow already on the ground but no snowfall during the morning. It did lightly snow into the evening that year however. We saw a white Christmas in 1998 and 2009, but no snow falling. 1998 was overcast and 2009 was a heavy rainstorm, melting the snow by evening . December in the 60’s saw a couple of occurrences where snowfall started to fall on Christmas Eve and continue into Christmas morning. It’s very rare to get that these days. Like you said, there’s something a bit more special in regards to seeing snow within the Dec 15th-Jan 15th timeframe. Winter in the 60’s for the most part, saw the brunt of winter within that 30 day timeframe. So even tho we avg more snow now than we did then, it felt a bit more “special” for the people who were able to live thru the 60’s winter’s.
  16. 3 points
    What at great post and balances well with other insights on this thread. Very thought provoking . Quick question - wasn't last winter also the case where this was similar , that we dealt with low angular momentum, more Nina like than Nino-ish ? Lastly I hear some references to the winter of 95-96 at least in the sense of the descending QBO. I thought that winter was more so Nina like along with a very favorable QBO phase and progression. So, the question than begs is it possible to have an outcome such as that year in a low budget AAM winter? Thanks again !
  17. 3 points
    Incredible post @OHweather! Thank you. Seems, again, we are at the mercy of the pacific. Where have we seen this script before...
  18. 3 points
  19. 2 points
  20. 2 points
    Should help the pattern shift occur quicker if all goes right.
  21. 2 points
    You have to imagine that stuff like that can cause cancer. I don't "treat" my lawn at all... why would I? I don't like to cut it, so why should I make it grow even more.
  22. 2 points
    It has support by the mjo. We probably get a nice cold shot at the end of the month
  23. 2 points
    I was 13 when the 62-63 winter started...I was just getting started being a weather observer and weather history buff...December 1962 started with record warmth on the first after a cold November...NYC already saw snow falling in October and November...after the first week of December it became very cold...a storm on the 21st-22nd laid down 3" of snow that ended as rain...Christmas day saw light snow that ended as rain that evening...brutal arctic air came at the end of the month...January and February had another arctic blast...February having one that was below zero...the snowstorm chances came in late January and the second half of February...January's storm was a 4-6" event that ended as rain...February's was a rain and wet snow event with 2-3" of slush...March 1st had another 2" that changed to rain...March became benign after that and April started with record warmth...that winter was a la nina before the oni scale was updated recently...now it shows a neutral negative...
  24. 2 points
    In 2002, unseasonable cold started the 2nd week of october.
  25. 2 points
    The 00z GFS has an absurdly cold look D10-15. It is also matched in Europe, where it is snowing in the Paris suburbs by 10/27. Wow. I think the details here will still change a lot but I think the overall picture painted above is pretty accurate. The blaring anomalies in the Arctic are already present and will only worsen through D15, and the recurving Hagibabymama lends additional certainly, at least over North America.
  26. 2 points
    10" storms in NYC with high ratios... 2006....1.86".....26.9" Feb... 2010....1.61".....20.0" Dec... 1978....1.13".....17.7" Feb... 1960....1.08".....14.5" Mar... 1935....0.99".....13.0" Jan... 1959....0.96".....13.7" Dec... 2003....0.93".....14.0" Dec... 2000....0.92".....12.0" Dec... 1979....0.89".....12.7" Feb... 1964....0.88".....12.5" Jan... 1960....0.86".....15.2" Dec... 2009....0.74".....10.9" Dec... 1899....0.70".....16.0" Feb... 1916....0.59".....12.7" Dec... 1996....0.52".....10.7" Feb... 1905....0.51".....11.0" Jan... 1961....0.50"......9.9" Jan... 2014....0.48".....11.5" Jan...
  27. 1 point
    Cold coast to coast with a few exceptions immediately on CA & SE shorelines Not just cold, FRIGID. Is it coincidental that this is being modeled coincident with our crossing below 2012's record low Arctic extent minima? The difference this year is that I believe continental snowfall extent is BIGLY above 2012. So we are (IMO) in for the same reaction we saw in winter 2013-13, except in 2019-20, it will be much colder and snowier with earlier onset. Does this potentially mean we will torch thereafter? Yes. But if we do torch, I think winter will resume earlier than it did in 2012-13, and it may not even let up for any major period at all, given how far we are ahead across the continents in terms of snowfall. We have made a rapid transition towards a continentally-based cryosphere in the NHEM since 2012 and I expect this will only continue this winter. Look at the Arctic as this event unfolds. It isn't like there is a kink or a little blob. The ENTIRE ARCTIC is +500MB anomalies and the only cold 500MB spots are relegated to the Kara, Hudson, and Okhotsk. Does this mean the GFS can be trusted at 360 hours? NO. But the HUGE scale of the projected anomalies up north mean that there is higher confidence for such a look in the extended range, at least in my opinion, especially considering SSTs in the Arctic are also the warmest on record for the date, vastly higher than even 2016, 2012, or 2007. It actually looks like where the ice has remained extant, temps are much colder than 2012, 16, and 07. But where the water is open, there is much more heat. I wonder if this will turbo-charge the tropospheric PVs this winter as the central airmass continually leaks out concurrent with +500MB incursions. That will simultaneously leave the strat vortex perpetually perturbed, weak, or split.
  28. 1 point
    Mt. Holly might need to expand wind advisories west with latest trends...
  29. 1 point
  30. 1 point
    Very consistent with the analogs being tossed around. But, it would mean a return to unseasonably mild weather for much of the start of the Winter. No thanks.
  31. 1 point
    This is just my opinion, based on my analysis of GFS and ECMWF ensemble products, but folks in the upper-mid Atlantic and Northeast, especially coastal areas from Virginia, NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Southeast New England better take this Wednesday-Thursday, October 16th-17th storm seriously. The European Ensemble is not painting a good outcome. If it verifies to its current guidance, there could be some potentially dangerous coastal flooding, along with wind damage, and possible flooding rains.
  32. 1 point
    If the sea ice analogy holds with 2012-13, we will get an anomalous early storm, and then winter finally arrives in February. I don't think that will be the case, but it is certainly a possibility.
  33. 1 point
    Today’s temperature at Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) rose to 36 degrees following a brief cold shot with a low of 15 degrees. That surpassed the daily record high of 34 degrees, which was set in 1998.
  34. 1 point
    Gfs wants to turn the pattern cold towards the end of October into November. Hopefully we dont see any snow if that happens.
  35. 1 point
    Look at hr 72. That is the worst possible look for NYC surge. The winds shift by the time they get super high but there will be a push here. As-modeled on 00z EURO I would think this could support a 3-4 foot surge resulting in a max around 9' above MLLW at The Battery. But if it goes any further west, the impacts could increase further. The tides will be about 5.1' and 4.4' vs MLLW for this event so they aren't super high, although we are at a baseline of +1' already vs. forecast (ambient SLR I guess). That means we need 4' of surge on top of current levels, which is actually not unfeasible if things line up here. The 72 hour projection is very Sandy-esque although the trajectory of the event is different. Funny enough we just crossed below 2012 to take title of lowest Arctic extent on record for the date (as of tonight's JAXA release).
  36. 1 point
    It was a nice day today to be at the ravens game. Felt like early season football weather.
  37. 1 point
    are we at the end of a snowy cycle or will it continue into the future?...The lousiest streak of bad winters came after a good streak of snowy winters...The first six winters I was alive for 1949-50 to 1954-55 had less than 20" per year...the next winter 1955-56 ended the streak at the last minute...then we were in a generally snowy period until the early 1970's...from the 1969-70 winter to the 1976-77 there were no major storms...only three winters had major storms over 10" in NYC until March 1993...since then major storms and snowy winters are winning over the bad ones like 2001-02 and 2011-12...
  38. 1 point
    It was Joe D in a paper , pdf online. Also talk about the affects on NAO in near term, months after low solar periods. Interesting.I can only get chapter 10 for some reason. More digging to be able to post a link.
  39. 1 point
    Not in the Atlantic but the CMC and GFS develop a low in the gulf by the end of next week.
  40. 1 point
    Parts of the region are now in the midst of a cloudy, windy, rainy, and cool period on account of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain into Friday. In general, those areas could see 2"-4" rain with local amounts in excess of 6". A moderate rainfall could occur in the New York City area and nearby suburbs.   Today, through 7 pm, daily rainfall records included: New London: 0.89" (old record: 0.83", 2016) and Westhampton: 1.67" (old record: 0.95", 1959 and 1995).   Meanwhile, another unseasonably cold air mass has moved into the northern Rockies is headed toward the northern Plains. The potential for some record low temperatures exists through Friday with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Blizzard conditions could also develop in a portion of the Dakotas starting late tonight. Some areas in the Dakotas could see record low temperatures following the storm.   From late tonight through Friday Bismarck could pick up 8"-14" snow. Bismarck's daily snowfall records are as follows: October 10: 2.3", 1959 and October 11: 1.6", 1909. Since 1874, Bismarck has had only four days on or before October 12 where 4" or more snow fell: October 4, 1898: 5.8"; September 25, 1942: 4.1"; October 7, 1946: 4.9"; and, October 6, 1982: 4.7". Bismarck's earliest ever daily snowfall of 6" or more occurred on October 23, 1991 when 7.6" accumulated.   Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.   Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.   The SOI was -9.35 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.970.   Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.   The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, likely following a brief cool shot, as does the extended range of the EPS. The unseasonable warmth could roll into the start of November.   On October 8, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.321 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.320.   The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since July 6-24, 2004 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for a record 19 consecutive days.   In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.   Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%. The probability of New York City's receiving 50" or more precipitation this year is approximately 54%.
  41. 1 point
    I just started NYPD in January and I was outside walking the beat in that. Very brutal.
  42. 1 point
    jan 3, 2014 was a crazy storm. I was like wow it’s 5 degrees with heavy snow.
  43. 1 point
    Early January 2014 we had a storm with 20-1/25-1. ratios. I remember it was snowing in the single digits. I believe it was from a costal low that was a little to far east to give us big totals.
  44. 1 point
    To add to the earlier discussion on early color/leaf drop, quite a few trees in my area have already lost their leaves. I didn't think it had been that dry, though. I have a theory that this is all somewhat related to the March 2018 snowstorms, at least for my area. One of them dumped 7 inches of heavy wet snow in 2 hours. Many trees lost large/key branches that day, and if I remember right, there is a certain cutoff diameter when losing a branch of that size affects the tree long-term. I believe it's 3 or 4 inches, but I could be wrong on that. The reason is that the tree is not able to fully seal the wound, so bugs and bacteria are able to get in. If the tree is small or weak, or already inherently susceptible to modern diseases (like ash or certain pines) that could be a devastating blow. I know of several trees that have never been quite the same since that storm.
  45. 1 point
    And meanwhile we also still need rain after getting robbed during the Sunday-Monday event but...we are looking high and dry throughout this event as well.
  46. 1 point
    Euro also fail You never know with blocking scenarios. It will come down to now casting but SNE and LI will get hit the hardest.
  47. 1 point
    If you look at the actually idv members this is so wet because of tomorrow’s rain and some members still have Friday. It’s being skewed heavily
  48. 1 point
  49. 1 point
    That’s a strongly west-based -NAO, but not a particularly helpful one for the NE US.
  50. 1 point
    As I usually do Tom, I completely agree with you! I use analogues with extreme caution. They have their place for a "general" comparison to each teleconnection and one can usually (but not always) eliminate the complete mismatches. The trouble is that the best matches for certain teleconnections may be poor matches for others. Even when one has whittled the short list down to a small number of half decent overall matches (if there are any that is!) they should simply be taken as just another forecasting tool out of the many that we employ. I feel that one should focus on what would seem likely to be the dominant teleconnection(s) and how these might interact with others - which varies enormously from year to year and season to season. Look very critically at earlier seemingly similar years/matches and especially at why they might not be so good as one first thought. This year, as we move towards winter, would appear to have far more significant uncertainties than usual (and there were enough last year!). The ENSO state has yet to be resolved. We have a had a prolonged period with an ocean-atmosphere disconnect - will this settle down to a more conventional position and if so, when? Will the change to eQBO speed up, slow down or stall? This may well not be resolved for a few more months. Will the earlier than usual N Hem (and particularly Siberian) snow cover extent steadily, rapidly or slowly increase or suffer a stall or set back? Judah Cohen, who first commented about 10 years ago on the correlation between early Siberian snow cover build up (in October) and the likelihood of major stratospheric warmings in January now admits that the correlation is not quite as strong as he first thought and that other factors are involved. Low solar often produces some of our cold winters in both CONUS and Europe/UK but this is not a certainty and again other factors can be more dominant. Over many years my main area of specialist study has been in the Arctic and I set up a specialist Arctic thread for reports over a year ago. Last week I produced a comprehensive update on there (for those of you who missed it, here's the link: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1367-the-arctic-thread/?do=findComment&comment=152787 ). 2019 saw the second ever lowest Arctic ice extent and this is highly significant and could well throw a big spanner in the works and destroy some otherwise pretty good analogue matches of other teleconnections. Although a lot more research is needed, the low ice extent (if it continues through into the winter) can have impacts on pressure patterns, the jet stream, the stratosphere and quite probably on strat-trop as well as ocean-atmosphere relationships and disconnects. The better news for the Arctic is that the re-freeze is gathering pace since the annual minimum extent on September 18th. Conditions look conducive for this to continue for the first half of October but many recent years have seen stalls and set-backs in the ice extent recovery. This will need to be closely monitored. I've said more than enough on this. So do not be put off comparing analogue years across all the teleconnections and analysing them on here - it is fun and has its uses. Just be very cautious about jumping to any specific conclusions. David EDIT: As I mentioned above and indeed @samsara2 has just posted below, the increase in early Siberian snow cover is impressive. I show yesterday's chart and one from a week earlier below: Current conditions look very conducive to further significant expansion during at least the next week or so.
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