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Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/16/2019 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    Good NYC/LI coverage @WxLover, @Adam, @ModRisk, @Intensewind001, @Psv, @dmillz25, @Snowman11, @Analog96, @Wxoutlooksblog, @Event Horizon tonight. Quite an event as it was & we appreciate the contributions.
  2. 10 points
    Upper 70s and low 80s for highs next week Beautiful weather coming
  3. 7 points
    Nice storms on the beach today. Photo 1: Rehoboth Beach (picture form my boss) Photo 2: Pulse storm which eventually became a large storm that flooded Ocean City Photos 3 and 4: Looking towards the Rehoboth storm
  4. 7 points
  5. 6 points
    I'm in western Suffolk. There's no power in West Babylon and trees are down everywhere.
  6. 6 points
    Speaking of winter.... I wrote my first seasonal forecast on the 1st of September last year. Not sure I will be able to go that early, but my preliminary thoughts will be coming very soon. Seasonal forecasting season is almost upon us. Just need our season to wrap up. New website coming too for the NH winter.
  7. 6 points
    Awesome mammatus clouds popped over my house for about 10 mins.
  8. 5 points
    Guess I'll need to crack another brew. Liking the gust front here.
  9. 5 points
    Tonight may surprise a little bit with regard to storms, especially in PA, extending into NJ & as far east as NYC. We may or may not see severe criteria reached, but with a strong upper level jet providing upper level divergence, there will be a mechanism to provide decent lift after dark.
  10. 5 points
    This video is one of the most insane I've seen in my life.
  11. 4 points
    This is from my friend in West Islip He just lost power
  12. 4 points
  13. 4 points
    Parts of the region experienced thunderstorms this evening. With the 0.26" rain that was recorded in Newark, that city's year-to-date precipitation now stands at 40.31" (9.94" above normal). Following tomorrow, several cooler than normal days lie ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.   Across North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.   Anchorage is poised to experience its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.5°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also an implied 56% probability that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records in Anchorage.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was -10.74 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.409. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values.   The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.   The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. That kind of evolution was shown on the August 19 EPS weeklies. The latest CFSv2 weekly figures are particularly aggressive with warming during the latter part of the second half of the September 1-15 period.   On August 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.101 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.201.   Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 65% probability of having a warmer than normal August.
  14. 4 points
    Pouring sideways, wicked thunder and lightning and the sun is out.... on to my 2nd cocktail!
  15. 4 points
  16. 4 points
    Nobody should even be looking at anything regarding winter just yet.
  17. 4 points
    Parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas experienced record warmth today. Highlights included: Baltimore: 99° (old record: 97°, 1914); Boston: 95° (old record: 92°, 1906, 1966, and 1983); Norfolk: 96° (tied record set in 1912 and tied in 1954); Richmond: 99° (old record: 98°, 1914 and 2002); Sterling, VA: 95° (tied record set in 2002); and, Washington, DC: 98° (tied record set in 2002).   Anchorage, which came off its warmest month on record, remains on track to record its warmest summer on record. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.0°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also a chance that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was +10.86 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was --1.006. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.   Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.   On August 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.128 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.751.   Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. In terms of receiving 50" or more precipitation, New York City's implied probabilities are 65% (1869-2018 historical period) and 77% (1971-2018 period).
  18. 3 points
  19. 3 points
    No matter what anyone says this year has been a good year for thunderstorms in our area
  20. 3 points
    These little storms will be training over Manhattan and Long Island it appears for several hours. They're all lined up. There should be plenty of flooding and travel is going to be difficult. Sleep also difficult with that occasional unexpected clap of thunder. WX/PT
  21. 3 points
  22. 3 points
    Midnight rainfall total of 1.17"... see what else we get overnight now.
  23. 3 points
    There were two more trees down behind me in the last pic that I had to walk around, but power was out on that part of the road so I couldn't get a clear photo
  24. 3 points
  25. 3 points
  26. 3 points
  27. 3 points
    Wow I have never seen this amount of rain before. Torrential downpours
  28. 3 points
    I just got to Wildwood, but the Davis registered a 39mph gust at home. That's the fastest recorded since install.
  29. 3 points
    Just adding a little to @Yaakov's tweets above.
  30. 3 points
  31. 3 points
    At 1 pm, Islip had a temperature of 89°. That tied the daily record set in 1976 and tied in 2005.
  32. 3 points
    whiteout rains here right now, wasn’t wearing my brown pants for that lightning strike either
  33. 3 points
  34. 3 points
    Well get ready, because it's a long road. I don't mind the outlook at the moment. The few seasonal forecasts and charts don't look that bad. at all. Never mind the Farmers Almanac.
  35. 3 points
    The drought has ended. We will have Chantal
  36. 3 points
    For what it's worth - The Old Farmer's Almanac appears to be forecasting another non-winter in the Northeast for the second consecutive year.
  37. 3 points
  38. 3 points
  39. 2 points
  40. 2 points
  41. 2 points
  42. 2 points
  43. 2 points
    0.75" of rain from round 1. Will probably get over an inch after the 2nd round moves through. Just another rain event in 2019.
  44. 2 points
    As expected, SPC raised pops for tomorrow. They may need to raise again tomorrow morning.
  45. 2 points
    Hahaha that is actually where I got my name, I used to be interested in space and Apophis99942 (the asteroid) always intrigued me back than lol
  46. 2 points
    Glad you’re still with us and can’t wait for winter!
  47. 2 points
  48. 2 points
    Severe warning. Hail at the wife's job. Torrential rain here.
  49. 2 points
    Might have a minor disturbance come up the coast this weekend into early week
  50. 2 points
    I hope we roast until November 1st. Not falling for it again this Fall.
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