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  1. 8 points
    All signs are pointing to that and lasting in mid-September too. Fun times ahead for tracking & hopefully we don't have a Cat 3 coming up the coast at us.
  2. 7 points
  3. 5 points
    Thanks for continuing to do these - I at least scan them every day!
  4. 5 points
    Late August is the time when things could ramp up.
  5. 5 points
  6. 4 points
    Cases are down in southern states because they're testing less. Positivity rates are over 10% and in some cases 20%. They had months to ready themselves based on what was happening on the northeast and instead rushed into reopenings.
  7. 4 points
    Pretty cool to watch the CFS runs. You can see the cooler air slowly becoming more dominant as fall slowly takes over the Northern Hemisphere.
  8. 4 points
  9. 4 points
  10. 4 points
  11. 3 points
  12. 3 points
    I am not doing anything indoors Gym Dining Drinking A play A movie Unfortunately we are not there yet.
  13. 3 points
    I've been waiting for this to surface somewhere on youtube over the years. Pure nostalgia... I was seven at the time of its release. Probably the #1 TWC special that jump-started my interest in weather.
  14. 3 points
    Whose butt do I have to kiss to get a mostly sunny, 80/65 day around here? It's either stupid hot and humid or pouring rain.
  15. 3 points
    Another day of flash flooding along & to the S of the nearly stationary frontal boundary.
  16. 3 points
    I think there are issues with the numbers being reported by the states due to the change of having to report to the HHS and not the CDC which was implemented over the last month. For example, the Florida Department of Health released this statement: http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/08/081220-1157-covid19.pr.html Today, the Florida Department of Health (DOH) received a backlog of testing data from Niznik Lab Corp in Miami, dating back to June 23. The lab reported more than 4,000 cases occurring over the past 7 weeks, which had not been reported to DOH until today. Therefore, this backlog severely skews today's daily report for Miami-Dade County and is not reflective of current trends. And this today from Washington state: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Newsroom/Articles/ID/1331/Washington-state-changes-negative-test-reporting-for-COVID-19 Today the Washington State Department of Health announced COVID-19 testing data will soon be reported using the total number of tests completed. This is a change from the current reporting, which reflects the total number of unique individuals ever tested. For example, someone who has a negative COVID-19 test result in May then another negative result in July would only be counted once in the current reporting approach. The most recent test would not be included. That means testing data does not fully reflect the actual testing volume or the current test positive rate, since only the first negative result for each person is included. And from the LA Times on California's reporting issues from 6 days ago: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-07/california-coronavirus-reporting-backlog-cases A series of data failures has created a backlog of as many as 300,000 test results in California, the state’s top health official said Friday as he provided the first public explanation of a problem that has stymied efforts to understand the spread of the coronavirus. Many states are having issues.
  17. 3 points
    Well the Russians are trying their best to win the PR race, but they've failed, miserably, from a scientific and public health safety perspective. They're "approving" a vaccine that hasn't even started phase III, large scale clinical trials yet - you know, the ones required to determine safety and efficacy. It's possible their approach, a mixture of two human adenovirus vectors (the CanSino approach, although they use just one adenovirus; also the Oxford/Astra-Zeneca approach uses a single chimp adenovirus vector) can work, but the issue is having done so little work so far and saying it's "approved," although they don't intend a general rollout until October, when it's possible they'll have a read from phase III trials. No way in hell I'd be taking that vaccine with so little data. As is often the case, Derek Lowe chimed in with a timely blog entry on the Russian vaccine today. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine-put-idUSKCN25712U?taid=5f3262d5df732d0001467856&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/11/the-russian-vaccine Many will have heard Russia’s announcement that they have approved a coronavirus vaccine. I’ve already had several people ask me what I think of it, so let me be clear: I think it’s a ridiculous publicity stunt. If it’s supposed to make Russia look like some sort of biotechnology powerhouse, then as far as I’m concerned it does the opposite. It makes them look desperate, like the nation-state equivalent of a bunch of penny-stock promoters. The new airliner design prototype just got off the ground – time to sell tickets and load it full of passengers, right? Why so negative? Look at what’s being claimed – the first coronavirus vaccine to receive regulatory approval. But “regulatory approval” is not some international gold standard, and these sorts of decisions show you why. Let’s be honest: there is no way that you can responsibly “approve” a vaccine after it’s only been into human trials for what numerous reports say is less than two months. That’s about enough time to do the first steps, a Phase I trial that gives you some idea of immune response across more than one dose. It is simply not enough time to do a reasonable efficacy workup as well, and absolutely not enough time to get any sort of reading on safety. Here’s a good article going into those timelines in more depth.
  18. 3 points
    The upper air pattern has changed in the Arctic and the rate of melt has slowed. 2020 will probably see the second consecutive sub-4 million square kilometer minimum extent and 3rd such mark on record. However, the probability of a new record low figure has fallen quite a bit in the past week.
  19. 3 points
  20. 3 points
    On this date in 1723, a possible hurricane made landfall in the Middle Atlantic region. The storm brought high winds and heavy rain to such cities as Philadelphia and New York, neither of which appeared to have had any memory of a hurricane. Weather conditions deteriorated rapidly during the mid-morning. In both cities, the wind started from the northeast but then veered to the southeast. The winds diminished during the latter part of the afternoon as the storm pushed away from the region. The Boston News-Letter wrote of the storm's impact on Philadelphia: ...there was a violent northeast storm of wind and rain, the wind shifting till about noon, and then blew very hard at southeast, which caused a great disorder among the shipping, and blew down several chimneys, a great many trees, and it did very much damage to fruit, the tide being very high a wharf was wash'd away, and damage was done to several other. That same newspaper reported the following account from New York: We are likewise inform'd from New York, that they had the like storm, at the same time, which broke up the wharffs from one end of the city to the other, drove all the vessels ashore, except three and broke three sloops to pieces; the tide higher than ever was known here, sugar and goods in warehouses and cellars, were damaged; the market house with several others were blown down, tyles & covering of houses blown off. Vast quantities of boards, timber, staves, boats, canoes and rubbish lies in heaps. The American Weekly Mercury reported the following account of the storm in New York: Yesterday about 8 or 9 a clock the wind came up here at northeast, and veered about more to the southeast and from 12 a clock till 4 it blew very hard, with rain, insomuch that it has broke up all the wharfs from one end of the city to the other, drove all the vessels (except three) onshore, and three sloops are broke all to pieces: the water came up into the city higher than ever was known before and has done abundance of damage to sugar and other goods in merchants cellars, the market house before the coffee house is blown down and several other houses, and the tyles and coverings of many houses were blown off. And if the storm had continued till the next high water, all the houses by the waterside would have been destroyed. All the wharfs round the great dock is drove away. And in the slips there is such vast quantities of boards, timber, staves, boats, canoes and other rubbish lies in heaps in such manner as was never seen here before. The pyrate sloop which Capt. Solgard brought in, was forced to cut her mast and is drove away.
  21. 3 points
    Not to start digging into winter yet since we are still in August but Larry Cosgrove hinted that this could be another disappointing winter for cold and snow lover in our area. I have zero expectations going into the winter especially after the last couple.
  22. 3 points
    thanks Don...you're the best...
  23. 3 points
    Try this: http://ibtracs.unca.edu/index.php?name=browse-year-basin
  24. 2 points
    Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton · Aug 14, 2020 Replying to @EricBlake12 and @mattlanza Yeah 2005's first week of September would be pretty hard to top (laughs nervously looking at the MJO). Eric Blake @EricBlake12 All you need to know is the Atlantic should be at its least favorable before the MJO. Which is now. And we still got 2 storms this week. Buckle up 5:51 PM · Aug 14, 2020
  25. 2 points
    Very happy i love hiking. But even trailheads are too crowded for me on weekends, mainly because no one wants to wear a mask while hiking. I feel bad, on the way out last evening there was a group of 12 - family oriented group - that got lost (no map, no app) and asked me to help point them in the right direction. It was after sunset and they had a 3-4 mile hike back to where their cars were. Any other time i would have driven them back to their car in groups, but i couldn't bring myself to do it this time. They ended up calling a family member but i still feel guilty.
  26. 2 points
    I can't imagine my going back to a gym -- at least, not for a very long while. In all the other places -- bowling alleys, restaurants, etc. -- there are reasonable precautions a person can take to avoid another person's effluvia. Gyms . . . Yick. Makes my skin crawl just thinking about it.
  27. 2 points
  28. 2 points
  29. 2 points
  30. 2 points
    Morning thoughts... At 9:20 am, a cluster of slow-moving thunderstorms was approaching Newark. It was also expanding eastward, meaning that a shower or thundershower could occur in New York City this morning. Further north, several hours of sunshine should be the rule in such areas as Poughkeepsie. Much of the region will likely see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 80s.
  31. 2 points
    18th day of 90 or above at the park, 30 for LGA. Every year someone predicts 0 90 degree days for the park, and every year they are wrong. Looks like 90s are done for a week or so, let's see if the park can sneak up to 20 days before the season ends.
  32. 2 points
    It's going to be an ugly day for flash flooding south of the frontal boundary. Can expect plenty of lightning strikes too.
  33. 2 points
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/health/coronavirus-aerosols-indoors.amp.html Pretty much explains why indoor anything is a bad idea, assuming enough live virus exists In aerosols to infect someone.
  34. 2 points
  35. 2 points
    Thanks! Hopefully soon there will be a day where I don't need to do them anymore. (There will be a few in September when I do my Wildwood vacation)
  36. 2 points
    https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f
  37. 2 points
    Morning thoughts... Overnight, the low temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 80 degrees. If that winds up as the daily low, that would be the record-tying 7th 80-degree minimum temperature. The record was set in 2002. Currently, 2020 is tied with 2006 and 2010 for second place with 6 such days. Across the region, today will again see temperatures rise mainly into the upper 80s and lower 90s. With fairly high humidity, the heat index will very likely exceed 100 degrees in many parts of the region.
  38. 2 points
  39. 2 points
    Wind gusts from the derecho that impacted Iowa...heading towards Chicago and only about an hour away. Taking in a lot of warm, moist air and unlikely to lose its intensity. Please be safe if you are in its path!
  40. 2 points
    Wow. 100+ mph wind gust in much of Iowa, more than 300,000 without power there. Chicago might get hit hard...
  41. 2 points
    Sunday Funday was spent on the Jersey Shore on my behalf. Yours? No changes to overall positives except xNYC to 5.3%. All-time low positive rate for NYS which is of course the great news. But now comes the economic business...
  42. 2 points
    GFS sees TC genesis +42 hours: and gets it sub-1000mb +66 hours: The impressive wave around 30 W is what the GFS develops. Looks healthy!
  43. 2 points
    The polar vortex is getting ready to wake up. Just a couple more weeks.
  44. 2 points
  45. 2 points
    as long as they stay off shore we can deal with it unless the storm is huge... 1949 hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/
  46. 2 points
  47. 2 points
    That was my family’s choice for our son, too. Hopefully, it will be possible.
  48. 1 point
    This video from GMA, which featured input from 5 former CDC Directors (including Merck's current Chief Patient Officer, Julie Gerberding - she's awesome) is a pretty good watch. All 5 of them noted lack of leadership, including poor communications, as the biggest failing in the US during the pandemic. Not surprising. Four of the five penned the WaPo editorial back in July, excoriating the Administration for repeatedly ignoring science and undermining the CDC (2nd link). I'm pretty sure that if we had had aligned leadership, executing against the pandemic plan we had on the books, we could've done far better despite having a more individualistic culture than many countries. This country has aligned pretty well in the past, at times when the case was crystal clear (WWII, 911), but not on some other things (Vietnam, Iraq). https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/cdc-directors-us-wrong-covid-19-response-72219740 https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/07/14/cdc-directors-trump-politics/
  49. 1 point
  50. 1 point
    My dad has always told me stories about Gloria since I first became interested in weather when I was a kid, trees and poles down everywhere and power was out for over a week from what he's told me. I believe Gloria might've been at Cat 2 at landfall
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