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Showing most liked content since 01/14/2021 in all areas

  1. test1
    There’s going to be something to worry about in almost every single pattern. This includes some of the greatest storms around here. If you were to look at the 500hPa height composite for NYC’s 15” snowfalls and imagine this idea on models, you’d probably have a ton of people complaining about the negative impacts of the troughing on the West Coast. The idea here is that the upcoming pattern is favorable for winter weather in the Northeast. The chances for a significant winter storm are certainly heightened compared to normal. While this doesn’t guarantee anything, the 5-Day height an
  2. test1
    Most of you have spent a long enough time tracking these types of setups to know that this is a great look at this range. Now we can settle in and let it evolve over the next few days...
  3. 30 likes
  4. test1
    30 hours ago we were certain of a lakes cutter, 12 hours ago we were worried about suppression, now we have the Euro showing 6-8” and we’re worrying about precipitation type. Take a step back and think about the broad picture
  5. test1
    The entire period next week has potential. Please don’t swing from the ledge with every op run. Take any complaint post to banter
  6. 23 likes
  7. test1
    Nothing more exciting then seeing @earthlight post about a Storm threat coming. It brings back great memories of our snowy winters.
  8. test1
    I mentioned 4 or 5 days ago that I felt we had a legit window for a significant storm in the East around the 26th. One that could possibly impact a good portion of the mid-Atlantic into the NE. This was in response to the decoupling of the PV/50/50 and the constant energy flowing between them. While I still think we will see a somewhat impactful system, I am starting to favor a solution that will be somewhat less in scope then I imagined/hoped for and be more of a variety of an overrunning event then a wound up system potentially exploding off the coast. But... I am starting to believe it may
  9. test1
    With the block still hanging out, drinking some beers and in no rush to leave Central Canada, there are a thousand different ways this pattern can work for us. You have to understand the possibility always exists that it may not work out, but that this is the type of pattern where you’d gladly roll the dice. The odds favor something of note, it’s just a matter of how it all shakes down.
  10. test1
    EPS once again, a MONSTER signal off the coast with many bombs
  11. test1
    ***Mods. Wasn't sure if I should post this here or in the pattern drivers. If you want me to move it there I will.*** The models (EPS, GEFS, CMC) are hitting pretty hard on the fact that the next 8/9 days will be for the most part uninteresting in the snow department in the east. Basically we have a shredding machine setting up to squash and rip apart any energy that moves into the east. But take heart, after this period things actual start looking more upbeat on the models. Below we have the 5 day mean on the GEFS day 3-8 (All models agree on this general setup). What
  12. test1
    Hey all, Found some time to briefly analyze & monitor the window of opportunity next week for the M.A./NE. So, essentially, It appears we're seeing a bit of convergence towards the ECM/UK/GEPS "camp", where the GEFS (d(prog)/d(t) last 14 runs), shows that convergence towards an inflection point ~ Sunday AM; this inflection point is the position, tilt, and location of the TPV lobe/ULL in Saskatachwan/Alberta, CA. I quickly annotated both 12z EPS and OP juxtaposed, to show what i'm referring to. Notice the tilt and location; this allows just enough downstream heights to "perk", w
  13. test1
    at this point, the OP has just as much weight as a random ensemble member, so it’s really nice to see the ensembles consistently less amped than the OPs into the lakes it’s leading me to believe that the cutter solutions with a 995 into Michigan are less likely than a more pure Miller B. however, at this range, those solutions still unfortunately need to be considered
  14. test1
    Synoptically, this is a good example of how the key pieces being in place in the higher latitudes is important. What began as an unfavorable evolution is mostly forced into being something decent for the Northeast because of the orientation of anticyclonic flow in the higher latitudes and resulting troughing south of Newfoundland.
  15. test1
    Pro Tip: It's usually a good sign seeing nearly the entire New York Metro/Empire Weather team perusing & chiming in on the forum.
  16. test1
    The lack of a TPV phase out west ensures that a 4 sigma block is moving into Central Canada and forcing disturbances underneath it. This will be a period featuring multiple chances for winter weather so long as guidance is correct that the big phase out west is off the table. This has improved dramatically in the last 36 hours.
  17. test1
    *Entire room rapidly sits at attention*
  18. test1
    For the record & to put a bow on this... We've got a lot of lurkers on here, some are infrequent contributors. Sometimes I think we may forget that it's not just the folks posting here that are present. With that in mind, just about everyone on here wants to see a snowstorm in the NE. Many folks drop in here & start counting the digital inches of snow when they see a lot of definitive statements. Bearing in mind this is a weather forum, not an AFD... So we're all given some latitude when giving our thoughts & ideas. Providing "opposing" ideas just gives the
  19. test1
    Lets step back for a moment. HRRR trying to bring some minor accumulations for the area on Wednesday
  20. test1
    I’m back for this. Wow. Eps snowfall mean
  21. test1
    I’m out for the rest of the afternoon. Will be back for happy hour Gfs with wine and cheese
  22. test1
    Not sure if it was posted already, but 12z gfs para
  23. test1
    The timing of the confluent flow in SE Canada and NW Atlantic works very much in the favor of people in the PA/NJ/NYC area. The storm is forced to de-amplify and cold air begins filtering in. It is unusual in the regard that the NYC Metro could be snowier than parts of the Ohio Valley and SW PA as a result of this.
  24. test1
    The difference between the GEFS and EPS can be largely traced back to the orientation and alignment of the TPV over Southern Canada. The GFS remains further south and more amplified with this feature, which creates an entirely different evolution and causes problems with baroclinicity when the main wave ejects out of the SW US. The EPS have a much cleaner look and really elongate that TPV piece over S Canada, which allows the synoptic setup to evolve more favorably - confluence is reinforced by the large blocking and the disturbance can eject into the Central US while taking advantage of the b
  25. test1
    I wouldn’t worry too much about details, timing, etc at this range. This run is completely flat because of the behemoth upper low in the NW Atlantic and resulting NW flow across the entire East Coast. There are a million different ways this could work and a million ways it couldn’t. You’ll likely see all 2 million of them over the next 7 days
  26. test1
    Here's a gif that better illustrates the progression. Note the amplified and buckled ridge into the Aleutians and Alaska, forcing the ridge --> trough --> ridge response via a tightening of the wavelengths (another way to view it is a ridge --> trough --> decreased trough response, forcing the trough to split) Troughs being forced to buckle off the Pacific Northwest coast via an upstream, very amplified ridge is how we have gotten some of our bigger storms in an otherwise broadly -PNA regime. See, Boxing Day and I think to some extent March, 2018 as well.
  27. test1
    Verbatim, though, the big trough off the Pacific coast leads to the broad ridge in the Central US and Southern Canada. That leads to a further downstream response to make that confluence lobe appear troughier. With a better Pacific, the wavelengths would be way more favorable, and we would have a consolidated system running into that confluence and produce a big snow event. The Pacific is making the Atlantic pattern appear worse than it is. The Central US broad ridging response also helps to lead to further northwest flow across the entire Eastern US, downstream of it. That's why t
  28. test1
    ten days away...20"... eight days away...10"... five days away...5"... three days away...1"... day of event...P'Cldy...
  29. test1
    Probably the best euro run we have had in years
  30. test1
    The difference between the ensemble sets (GEFS vs EPS) are mainly across the EPO domain...The Alaskan ridge on the EPS is essentially perfect, while the GEFS has it fragmented with a dislodged trough in the GOA. What are the downstream implications for both? EPS: As you can see the -EPO/-NAO couplet are both well established and pronounced to the point where the PV lobe becomes elongated across the Northwest Territories of Canada...This cuts off any interaction between the developing shortwave in the SW US and the Polar Vortex. During this process, the EPS has created enough space
  31. test1
    I understand this has been a rough month for winter weather lovers and this next system is playing havoc on the models which is increasing the level of frustration but please use the banter thread.
  32. test1
    here’s what’s so important about the blocking the high heights near Greenland force a semi-permanent 50/50 ULL. this, in turn, creates a base state of NW flow over the NE there is absolutely no way to cut a system through NW flow like that. none. this is why myself and others have been so skeptical of inland runners on OP runs the major players in the pattern are creating an environment that is fundamentally unfavorable for systems cutting into the NE, and we should see OP runs continue to correct over the next several days imo, suppr
  33. 15 likes
  34. test1
    Excepting some convoluted interaction with energy in the West or the models being flat out wrong, it is becoming fairly obvious IMO that our 26/27th system (primary) will be cutting to some degree to our west without outside help (really think the threat of suppression is all but off the table at this point). The broad overall pattern/flow argues strongly for this. When you see all the dark blues embedded firmly in the west, run over run, it is hard to escape the conclusion that left alone we are going to see strong ridging in front of any system forcing it north as it moves eastward. Now I sa
  35. test1
    This analysis is right, and I had the first same initial thoughts regarding buying it vs. not buying it. But we do have one thing going for us vs. the current Pacific regime...it's at least going to be different. So the setup at day 10 is not necessarily apples to apples with the previous setup that the models previously ejected partially but were wrong with. Here is the EPS at 96 hours, showing the rolling over British Columbia ridge and low latitude Pacific ridging in general, forcing the energy to cut off and not eject at all. Now let's compar
  36. test1
    Though I myself would probably prefer that cutoff shifted somewhat more to the south and east (off the southern California coast) you did bring up a good point here. Not all -PNAs are created equal. I have been harping over having energy digging into the SW and planting and how it can wreck the pattern, especially when you have the tendency for SE ridging during a Nina. But there is a case where that SW energy can actually be beneficial to our cause in the east and you are hitting on it above. Going to use the overnight GFS op run (day 6) to illustrate my point. Quite often times w
  37. test1
    Comparing this 12z Euro run to the 00z run valid 15z Saturday, there is considerably less interaction with the TPV over Southern Canada. This should allow for more amplification of the mid level height field down the road.
  38. test1
    It doesn’t get more obvious than this - the GFS is a clear outlier with its handling of the northern stream/tpv piece sliding into the Great Lakes
  39. test1
    Can we not rehash the entire cutter or no cutter debate. It has moved away from that look the pass few runs. We have potential on our doorstep let’s just discuss that. Every model at one point cut this system, it’s just the variability of op runs many days out
  40. test1
    One at a time for me, I see the 12z/19 CMC and GFS for the 28th. Think I want to get through the 20th, 21st-22nd (may surprise on WAA in CT), 24th doesn't come crawling over the Apps with a period of S- near I95, and certainly the 25th-26th which i think continues an advisory event signal. 28th... back burner for me and I think highly dependent for PHL northward on amplitude of the seaward departing LI short wave of midday Tuesday the 26th. Hope spring eternal and am glad we're starting to see flurries/dustings in our area the past couple of days with more to come.
  41. test1
    We have a beautiful ejection, and the ridge out ahead of the shortwave does not phase right into the block. Instead, because of the lack of initial phase, we get lobes of the TPV to get squeezed right underneath the block. This enhances confluence, and leads to a beautiful separation between the block and the ridging out ahead of the storm. Thus, the block actually blocks something, and forces a transfer when we need one.
  42. test1
    How in the face of the MJO do I get my period to extend to Feb 15th ? BTW, the weeklies come back a bit after this, but as the ensembles are blow torching the CONUS week 1 of February, maybe I am chasing fools gold but here's what I have right now. This will now be the 3rd hit to the strat by Feb 1 Take a look at the pressure pattern in the N Hemisphere You have blocking over the top and a trough in Europe week 3 and 4 . Now take a look at the precip pattern This doesn’t e
  43. 14 likes
  44. test1
    Much more latitude gain on the GEFS...Hell of a signal we got here on both ensemble families
  45. test1
    not sure why you guys are worrying about an individual storm at 220 hours? the blocking pattern shown here is insane for january and will yield multiple snowstorms
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