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  1. 17 points
    I’d say anything the coast gets next Saturday is the appetizer. After the 21st we may be entering a KU pattern so long as the Atlantic cooperates. Even if it doesn’t we could be looking at a SECS event. I’m getting excited. You should be too.
  2. 16 points
    Late afternoon thoughts... 1. Yesterday, the MJO reached Phase 5 at amplitude of 2.430 (a January record for Phase 5). 2. Historically, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8 at amplitude of 1.000 or above following its being in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. 3. The idea of a pattern change featuring a trough in the means in the East remains on track. 15-day Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO peaks in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period: 4. The 12z EPS, 12z GEFS, and 12z CFSv2 weekly guidance all favor the trough in the means in the East idea for the closing 10 days of January.
  3. 14 points
    You have to give @PB GFI an A+++ for all of the effort he puts in on this forum. Giving the man credit where credit is do. Stressful and tiring hobby for sure. Don't worry we will get our early March blizzard lol. #thestruggleisreal
  4. 13 points
  5. 12 points
    12z extended HRRR for those who missed it
  6. 12 points
    Best of luck for your upcoming AMS presentation.
  7. 12 points
    As you'd expect for a central Pacific MJO event coupled w/ a NINO leaning base state, the LR GEFS has a very active southern stream and is wet in the southern US and along the eastern seaboard.
  8. 12 points
  9. 10 points
  10. 9 points
    Beautiful NAM run for in and around NYC compared to the past few runs.
  11. 9 points
  12. 9 points
    EPS signal for a coastal storm is obviously getting stronger.
  13. 9 points
    I’m not so sure, PB. Given the progged evolution, there should be significant wave spacing between this system and the one before it. With no evidence of a well-placed 50/50 low (looks much too far south and a bit east, which would fit with the progressive pattern), or any help from the Pacifc wave train that continues to unload system after system into the west coast, based on the orientation of the positive anomalies I see no reason why they wouldn’t try to link to a northward extension of the western Atlantic ridge here. If it DOES bowl under, then I think we ultimately end up with an airmass that is less than ideal, as the cold air source is cut from waves cutting through the weakness between the Canadian positives and the system of interest. I will say, though, that the modeling is looking less and less appealing to me overall for the extended pattern
  14. 9 points
    1993 keeps showing up and we can only hope this winter has a second half as good as 1993 had...
  15. 9 points
    ...and backed out to see the bigger picture.
  16. 9 points
  17. 8 points
  18. 7 points
    The POAMA/ACCESS-S MJO progression is pretty much mirroring the JMA and Kyle MacRitchie's CFS ensemble MJO and just like the JMA and the CFS ensemble plots trended into the null phase as they started the turn toward phase 7 and then corrected back to looks of a run through 7, 8, 1. and 2, the POAMA/ACCESS-S plot looks to be doing the same.
  19. 7 points
    I was messing around and decided to make an early amateur map of my thoughts for this Saturday. Nowhere near as knowledgeable as many here but these maps are fun to make for me lol
  20. 7 points
    Yeh Ryan , rb is really skilled I told you, there's 20 legit guys in here daily that make you do your work. Told you , you belong here.
  21. 7 points
  22. 6 points
  23. 6 points
    Stellar analysis, @SnowWolf87 and @brooklynwx99 Thank you for sharing.
  24. 5 points
    A subsequent winter's snowfall outcome isn't conditional on that of the preceding winter, even as some oscillations have a degree of regularity e.g., ENSO.
  25. 5 points
    A - EPO/ +PNA / -NAO / - AO favors inland cutters ? Bruh,
  26. 5 points
    I think all of the points you mention are correct...if there's one thing I like, it's that the airmass ahead of the storm is nothing to scoff at...dew points below 0 on the Euro and some radiational cooling Friday night, with 850mb temps of -5C with some room to wet bulb when precip moves in. The high north of the storm has overall trended somewhat stronger over the last few days and the airmass in front of it has not trended warmer yet. A strong low tracking well to the north will eventually warm us up and the flow is not good for cold air damming (just some brief in-situ damming due to how cold/dry the airmass is ahead of this). Basically, I think everyone changes to rain (obviously, to the south and near the coast first), but I do think many start as snow, and with a good shot of QPF there is some thump potential. I'd keep expectations low outside of the interior/northern Mid Atlantic, Upstate NY and New England, but the airmass in front of it makes it somewhat interesting.
  27. 5 points
    Day 8. Jan 20. Flip. Following 5 days. Day 16. No wonder why the ensembles thinks there's thats much snow.
  28. 5 points
    @PB GFI’s call for this ridge being transient in nature originally ended up being dead on. He did great work handling this period!
  29. 4 points
    Literally no one actually thought you would last more than 24 hours, pb. But that's why we like you man. Great come back post.
  30. 4 points
    Direction...amplitude...whatever we want to call it there is no denying that it is overwhelming the entire global pattern right now.
  31. 4 points
    We would need 35 more moderators and a whole bunch of luck.
  32. 4 points
  33. 4 points
    Everybody needs a break from monitoring a bunch of weather fans all day everyday.
  34. 4 points
  35. 4 points
    Brother it's good that we see things differently. If there was one monolithic opinion in here it would become boring quickly. I had Feb as my best month since November , my period starts 10 days early Does it end 10 days early, possible, but I see a major rotation into the cold phases in the heart of winter with a piece of the TPV sitting over the US. I'm a fan
  36. 4 points
  37. 4 points
  38. 4 points
    It does ? Maybe it's a tick warmer but still a good front end thump.
  39. 4 points
  40. 4 points
    It seems like they make bad forecasts and then desperately try to cling to them.
  41. 4 points
    As it looks - once this hits the ocean and cyclogenesis happens - I think it would snow even to the coast. As modeled of course...
  42. 3 points
    Gfs looks really good. Colder and more precip.
  43. 3 points
    I think that's why he said " However, that may not matter that much because its still January and not March. As such there is still enough cold air to make things interesting if the storm takes a good track especially for those on the interior. "
  44. 3 points
    Yes. 1988-89 was a strong La Niña.
  45. 3 points
  46. 3 points
    Yup, delayed onset again. Three run trends moving up in time to 102, 108 & 114, respectively.
  47. 3 points
    Because the center is now at the BM and you only need the N branch to speed up by 18 hours
  48. 3 points
    Meanwhile...the Euro wants to make the event immediately after this weekend interesting...
  49. 3 points
    Another thing that is important is the angle of approach. You change to rain a lot faster with a low moving south to north than you would with a low moving west to east. A low moving south to north transports warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico with it, while a low moving west to east has cooler air in its core. That's why clippers can go NW of you and you still snow, but a Miller A moves into central VA many times and you're already raining.
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