Jump to content

Leaderboard

Popular Content

Showing most liked content since 09/19/2021 in all areas

  1. 9 likes
  2. test1
    I know, fantasy range…. But you have to love seeing this in October. Rainy windswept coastal storm pulling the Canadian air toward the border.
    8 likes
  3. test1
    That's the giant ridge we're tracking, which is set to roll over Canada & settling for a period. It's tied back to a rossby wave train that originated on the other side of the globe.
    6 likes
  4. test1
    The location of the cutoff ULL being further NE at hr 192 here would at face value, keep the prospects of a direct landfall away from the Mid-Atlantic, but perhaps increase the chance of a slingshot into New England. There's no point in getting caught up in those details on a day 8 op look. Point being though, I think with such a strong ridge rolling over the top across Canada into the NATL like that is going to make a lot of people queasy next week. It's going to come down to the amplitude of, and how fast that ridge rolls over, because that'll dictate how early the tr
    6 likes
  5. test1
    Concerning trends on the Euro for Sam down the line... It continues to force the ridging over Canada & the NATL further south, pinching off the trough further south. The ULL in the NE ATL is all but gone as well. That's a lot of flow to push him closer towards the CONUS moving up in time.
    6 likes
  6. test1
    I would agree, highly respected poster. Thanks for sharing here.
    6 likes
  7. test1
    Its kind of a delicate process. Yes, a recurving WPAC tropical cyclone will ignite a rossby wave train, but exactly when the ridge decides to slow its progression is not 100% clear, though recent trends have been less than ideal. That'll drive if the trough cuts off (or even be accompanied by a full blown cut off ULL) & where it's placed east of the Mississippi. Lot of time to go.
    5 likes
  8. test1
    Running some basic SST panels for ENSO vs PDO vs South Pacific domains (from 1984 to 2019) - Strong Nina as a control So standard Nina form not ideal for Eastern snowfall, with a +NAO and Western troughing. - Years with SST patterns similar to that forecast this winter by ECMWF: A potentially more interesting pattern for North America, Canadian trough, -NAO/Scandi block and Aleutian ridging.
    5 likes
  9. test1
    I am really hoping for an early start to winter similar to last year. I like when we see at least one significant/major snowfall in December (particularly before Christmas).
    5 likes
  10. test1
    59 here in Brooklyn Lovely crisp morning
    4 likes
  11. test1
    The dewpoints drop 8-10 degrees after the initial batch of rain and anyone who has dewpoints in the 70s and likes it better get out and enjoy it because once the dewpoints drop, that is it for 70+ dewpoints until next year.
    4 likes
  12. test1
    oof... still a ton of disagreement, but that's a rough look in the long range... and not so great medium range trends. Hopefully the trough skirting to Sam's north around day 3 is able to direct it that way before the ridge builds in.
    4 likes
  13. test1
    Models getting wetter for tomorrow evening. 1-3 on the euro run this morning
    4 likes
  14. test1
    I wonder if non vaxxed ppl realize that eventually they’re are not going to be able to get on a plane without one. It’s going to get harder for them to do anything without it. I saw a video on instagram with this woman having an adverse reaction to the vaccine and ppl reposting saying nope thats why I’m not getting it….. it’s like 1 out of 10000 ppl or more cmon
    4 likes
  15. test1
    Early indications of a weak LA Nina and weak PV
    3 likes
  16. test1
    Okay, I’m officially fully vaccinated now. Hopefully the side effects aren’t too bad, but I know what to expect since I had Covid last year
    3 likes
  17. test1
    Would this cutoff help to pull it west/capture it? Thanks
    3 likes
  18. test1
    With the Western Pacific system 20W recurving you would think that Sam would get pulled closer to the Eastern Seaboard, if not inland. I believe the East Asia Rule would place a trough in the eastern US in roughly 8 days from Japan.
    3 likes
  19. test1
    The GFS & CMC Ensemble minimum mslp guidance is in agreement with a system impacting the eastern seaboard around Oct 4th-5th, the Euro had it but is not in agreement at the moment moment.
    3 likes
  20. test1
    We've had multiple cool fronts this month attempting to end summer in a piecemeal fashion. I think this front officially "ends" summer weather, with constant humid days gone as we move into october
    3 likes
  21. test1
    Yes I know this is way out there but I feel like this position would not be good for the east coast am I correct ?
    3 likes
  22. test1
    Interesting Blog and makes valid points in his write up http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/
    3 likes
  23. test1
    He said a huge Blizzard on the way
    3 likes
  24. test1
    This is one of those milestones that should be put in context, IMO. Deaths should always be reported on a per capita basis so we're comparing apples to apples and we only had 1/3 of our current population in 1919, so the per capita deaths from COVID are 1/3 those of the flu pandemic back then. Doesn't minimize the tragedy of COVID, but I just like better context/accuracy.
    3 likes
  25. test1
    I always thought it was the OLD Farmers almanac that yielded the most accurate forecasts overall. I used to buy those almanacs religiously. I would start searching all the news stands in Brooklyn (from the mid 1980s thru about 2010) hunting for a pleasurable read. There were at least 4 or 5 that I would buy. Harris' Weather almanac was another one!
    3 likes
  26. test1
    These antivaxxers / anti maskers just created another Wall Street sale day.
    3 likes
  27. 3 likes
  28. test1
    coming later in the period is a gift - every dry day between now and then helps.
    3 likes
  29. test1
    October is usually when we start seeing signs of how the winter will play out at least storm track wise. Some slower moving strong nor'easters would be nice as we head deeper into fall/winter.
    3 likes
  30. test1
    That's between 0.00 to +0.50. Not bad.
    3 likes
  31. test1
    It’s coming.
    3 likes
  32. test1
    Some of Larry Cosgrove's latest thoughts concerning the upcoming Winter of 2021-2022https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ADgWeB2FI_E At some point, another large, powerful storm like Ida or Larry is going to crack the subtropical high. I would suspect that such a feature would be derived from the African ITCZ family, with two destination threats: the islands rimming the Caribbean Sea and/or the Eastern Seaboard. Using the model ensemble packages as a guide, the last week in September and the first 20-15 days in October would be the target zone. Given the fact that we keep seeing intera
    3 likes
  33. test1
    Is that Typhoon Mindulle? Looks like East Asian Rule coming into effect with typhoon injection into the westerlies.
    2 likes
  34. 2 likes
  35. test1
    ECMWF maps of 10hPa temperature anomalies now available,good things come to those who ask
    2 likes
  36. test1
    Yes this looks to be the key. Looks like from the 1st to 5th we need to watch out for this as of now.
    2 likes
  37. test1
    Okay I'm all in for secession now.
    2 likes
  38. test1
    My wife is freaking out about the rain tonight because she was one of the many people that couldn’t make it home during Ida. Trying to tell her it isn’t going to be as bad but she’s traumatized
    2 likes
  39. test1
    Yes def not what we would want to see ugh.
    2 likes
  40. test1
    Everything needs to be taken in context, including your point, and another that our ability to care for the sick is so much better nowadays then in 1918.
    2 likes
  41. test1
    This would be my advice. Certainly sounds like you got a mild case of COVID, but rather than ignoring it, he'd likely be better served by getting medical advice from his doc...
    2 likes
  42. test1
    Apparently Bastardi got banned on Facebook for talking about the vaccine.
    2 likes
  43. test1
    Yeah we have dried out a bit since the Ida deluge on the 1st of the month. Nevertheless 1-3/3-5" would cause some problems around the region. Shades of Ida?
    2 likes
  44. test1
    For the last 24 hours, that system has looked more like a TS than Odette ever did.
    2 likes
×
×
  • Create New...