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33andrain

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33andrain last won the day on October 12

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About 33andrain

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    Co-Founder / Super Administrator
  • Birthday 02/12/1978

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    Scotch Plains, NJ

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  1. 33andrain

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    I said I am not too crazy about it. I did not say I hate it.
  2. 33andrain

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Meh. I'm not too crazy about this look. Is it just me?
  3. 33andrain

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    I think we all know that is an extremely unlikely solution, just having some fun. Don't go hyping.
  4. 33andrain

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Because why not?
  5. 33andrain

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Meh. It's October. Let's let our NW posters pile up first.
  6. 33andrain

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Monster storm again late on the GFS
  7. 33andrain

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    That is insane.
  8. 33andrain

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    For posterity, everyone note these are going Normal temps for December and January. Meh...really do not want to a backloaded Winter this year. Much is going against that working out for us. Just this guy's opinion. Can still fare well with a N temp regime in Dec-Jan, but this Winter has been hyped to some degree. Normal isn't going to cut it at this juncture.
  9. 33andrain

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Meh. I wouldn't get too excited about this. It's just too early, and in many prior cases, persistent early season cold like this has not been a good thing. If this were November 15th, than this would excite me much more. We are still 2-3 weeks away from really being able to nail down anything concrete about this Winter.
  10. Well, I'm also concerned about the ENSO state. Not convinced the current region 1+2 cooling is long term. The next 2-3 weeks are critical, as always. You don't need to worry about me putting all my eggs in one indicator basket.
  11. 33andrain

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Too early to say, I think that was my point above.
  12. 33andrain

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    That was the FV3 last night. It's on the 6z GFS. That's also a different storm. Alas, I think the point is...big storm potential at the end of the month as has been noted by @antmasiello_HM, @earthlight, @NSFW Weather Guy and others.
  13. 33andrain

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Good news on the surface (see what I did there? ). However, an abundance of tropical systems in the EPAC might be welling up cooler temps and making this only temporary cooling in region 1+2. That’s definitely what is causing the rapid cooling off the coast of Mexico. I really want to see a traditional Modoki El Niño. Not interested in a basin-wide event. Will cause problems for the cities come Winter.
  14. For the record, I am in the camp of people who are concerned about QBO implications, especially as we move into the second half of the winter. This is a very underrated indicator and I do agree that the rapid transition to positive will have an impact later this winter. I think many are erroneously believing February will be the coldest and snowiest month. Think we have one shot at a pattern changing snow event early in February, but then we’re basically done after mid-month. I do believe the -EPO and active STJ will propel us to at least normal snow in December and January.
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