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wxmd529

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About wxmd529

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    New York, New York

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  1. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    usual caveats applying about the 18z nam, there is a weakness created by the amplifying vort in the mid west that allows some more amplification of the southern vort. Likely couldn't be more than a clip if it amped more but interesting nonetheless
  2. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    dont ever sleep on the TPV when it moves out. Depending on the speed and orientation of the heights as it moves out, there is a good deal of potential there. Don't need to jump the gun yet but it's definitely a favorable period
  3. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    another episode of the goofus
  4. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    The angling I’d the tpv allowed a near coastal hugger track but it was damn close you are correct
  5. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    Euro also had a more impressive southern vort. If that’s real this threat has legs
  6. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    All I’m saying is that what we saw when the ensembles went to crap for a couple days was the transition in then pacific. That’s all. We could easily continue to be unlucky
  7. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    Exactly. Tell that to the cancel winter sayers earlier this week when ensembles were catching that period of reshuffling
  8. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    @Allsnowweek 2-3 is a function of the pac pattern regression. We go from what we have now to a stable Aleutian low. The in between APPEARS to be a pattern change or “warmer” as the pacific pattern reshuffles and it looks as if the conus is flooded with pacific air which is not the case. It’s orobably a few days of seasonal weather followed by sustained cold Not forecasting this necessarily just interpreting the Ensembles d10-14 and weeklies
  9. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    you can actually see on the 12z euro how this could evolve. Could get the PV to break off and phase in. Could also have a more favorable location of PV without a phase for pure southern stream
  10. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    for entertainment purposes only. To show the explosiveness for 2/2-2/3
  11. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    they are. A couple tucked in low that ride the front, probably a little too far west for most of LI but clips city and definitely just inland.
  12. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    totally agree. It was made worse by a significant change in main PV location
  13. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    verbatim too far north. But players on the field are workable-as above
  14. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    You can add the icon to the hit category for the gfs event
  15. wxmd529

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    It makes meteorological sense, so why not?!
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