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    New York, New York

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  1. This winter has been very interesting. Even though snow is unlikely to be any better than near average or average, it got started very early with cold and snow, had a lot of ups and downs. Had some pretty significant cold but without major staying power. A good amount of seasonal cold but also a lack of long stretches of serious warmth and altogether a fairly unimpressive amount of >50 degree days (only hit 50 20 times since nov 14th, a nearly 4 month period) it felt wintry yet with much snow during d/j/f. All told it’s been a weird one that had a lot of failed potential.
  2. Manhattan does not look good right now. March 2018 all over again. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the park come in over 6 and have many places less than 3
  3. @snywxwet streets so it must be raining? It’s snowing just not accumulating yet
  4. Decision needs to be made by 6 the latest and many are made earlier than that. I give it a 30/70 chance
  5. No sneaky warm nose no snow growth problems just go old fashioned 3-5 of snow for many of us
  6. A little over 3 here on the ues still snowing 0.75-1in/h
  7. Heading out to measure on UES. Guessing it’s about 3
  8. Measurable precip has only reached a line from east to west of Wilmington de to Lancaster pa. So we’re not exactly talking about large amounts of precip. Also hrrr has been cutting back snow due to cutting back total precip amounts. These undulations at the outset of an event are common for short range modeling
  9. Using the gfs as it was on the warm side until 00z and so in my opinion it’s conservative. 06z followed by 09z. @rb924119 Unless you’re suggesting that the models overall are just under doing or not at all picking up on the warm nose, well that’s possible but I’ve yet to see anything that supports that
  10. I’m not even sure you know what you’re disagreeing with. All I said was that initially it’s either light rain or non snow frozen ie sleet or zr before going over to snow as precip rates ramp up. Take a look at hrrr rap 12k and 3k NAM rgem euro gfs FV3 soundings for the city and prove to me my statement is false
  11. The light precip initially will be light rain for many. It ramps up around 12-3am from south to north. Initially in the city and south it’s rain/sleet but as soon as the column saturates it’s snow
  12. GFS verbatim,taking into consideration it's biases. a mostly frozen event for NYC.
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