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  1. wxmd529

    Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

    @earthlight @Isotherm are displacement events similar to splitting events in that cold usually ends up either in europe or NA?
  2. gosh-look at the nam at 18z at hr 72-81. 500mb is drool worth except for that damn poorly oriented confluence.
  3. wxmd529

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    ya it was actually a pretty classic late model change, and one of the most severe given that knyc received nearly 2.5 ft and ensembles and modeling 2-3days out had <3in likely
  4. wxmd529

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    models had the storm in the long and longer/mid range. Lost it in the mid range until about 48-72 hrs before besides the nam/sref/jma. Everything else had nothing (for nyc)
  5. wxmd529

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    obv older examples but jan 2000, feb 2003 was originally modeled to miss NYC in the mid range..
  6. wxmd529

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    dude you have 3 posts and you go into the storm thread on a board where 10-20 active mets post, many more amatuer mets or met students, and basically told us all to stand down, you know better.
  7. wxmd529

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    thanks mods for moving to banter. Every model does not show 1 solution. The CMC is >100 miles north of the furthest south model and has direct impacts "north of DC" as you said in your original post. Besides that many of us can name storms where major shifts happened under 96 hr. BDB, blizz 2016. If you ask me personally I was never sold on this storm and felt like northern stream was out to get us with so many vorts reinforcing confluent flow. But you're talking in absolutes and are purely wrong.
  8. wxmd529

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    This doesn't even deserve a response. Is the storm forecast tomorrow? Or the next day? Or next? we're realistically 96 hrs out. Realistically it has a low chance but for the mets and enthusiasts alike on this site your analysis is 100% incorrect
  9. wxmd529

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    maybe for your 3rd post you should be a bit more insightful? Aside from the fact that some of what you said is factually incorrect.
  10. two of the better looking ensemble members. Both are drool worthy
  11. EPS on SV are 6-8in for most of the I-95 corridor which is pretty amazing at this lead time.
  12. If you shifted the confluence north east by 100 miles somehow I think you may feel differently. Or slight alteration of the trough for more neutral/neg tilt
  13. Absolutely classic evolution. Look st that banana high!
  14. its safe to say the FV3 is an MECS/HECS verbatim