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wxmd529 last won the day on April 7

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  1. It is true yes that generally speaking it has likely gone through a large portion at least in the example of the NYC metro area with fairly uncommon severe cases but 1-2% hospitalization rate is still quite high.. Still a lot more data to be obtained though. A near 1% fatality rate for a coronavirus as contagious as this (is common cold for example which is even far less contagious) is almost unheard of
  2. For some reason they’re not often on the same page. They’re both correct but the timing of the counting is different. I go by cuomos numbers because they consistently count for the same time period day to day. Worldometers jumps all over the place
  3. This is complete BS. Plain and simple. He’s accusing journalists of doing exactly what HE is doing. He is such a hack it’s not even funny. It’s a talking point spreading among right wing media to “minimize” the affects of this pandemic to make trump look better. Don’t fall for it, follow the facts. Deaths are being majorly undercounted unfortunately and this is not a political pundit making the claim, it’s someone with access to the facts...
  4. Complete BS. I don’t even know where to start regarding first point the data I posted out of Harvard 2-3 days ago showed roughly 30% of people did not have a robust antibody response, more common in the youngest patients <40, specifically less than <15). So it doesn’t surprise me but still 70-maybe 80% with a robust antibody response is good enough for herd immunity purposes
  5. Coming from researchers at Weill-Cornell and Columbia-it should be made publicly available soon. I received a PowerPoint this morning with all the info (I summarized to make it easy) and felt it was necessary to share given that so many of us are worried/anxious/scared about this virus. If anything new or more updated comes along I will continue to share info
  6. Probably stagger getting everyone back to normalcy with the vulnerable population slowest and done very carefully. This is where the antibody testing will come in handy bc if you’ve been exposed and have antibodies you should be able to get back to Normalcy. Despite all the good news I’ve yet to see a good plan in place for how to unroll the antibody testing there is also data out of Harvard that shows the best and most robust antibody responses were in the >40 year old population for unclear reasons. about 20-30% patient this group analyzed did not show a robust antibody response (food for thought moving forward).
  7. Some major updates this morning coming from yet unreleased/unpublished data for NYC in particular. Highlights; 1) we’re currently peaking/have peaked 2) lockdown/social distancing was followed by a much larger proportion than expected and was incredibly successful 3) covid19 led to 8-12x the rate of severely ill patients compared to the most severe flu seasons (2017-2018 eg) and accomplished this in a 3-4 weeks as opposed to 3-4 months, overwhelming NYC hospitals and capacity 4) using unpublished unreleased data from testing of healthy health care workers in large hospital system in NYC in combination of tracking influenza like illnesses and other modeling, estimated 30% of NYC population have already been infected by the end of March (half of which, or about 1.2M symptomatic) 4) based on above modeling ~60% Infected by June. Reproduced 50% asymptomatic infection rate previously described In Italy and other locales 5) peak caseload this week (again for NYC) 6) in hospital fatality rate 20% 7) with all the above information, CFR for NYC likely to be in the 0.3-0.7% range given likelihood of high prevalence (an assumption that still needs to be confirmed and reproduced) 8 ) hospitals now have enough resources to keep up with the demand. This boys and girls is the best news we’ve gotten since this began. The caveat here is that no model is perfect but the information being input is recent and novel. This predicts essentially herd immunity for NYC by the summer. Also suggests that other major metropolitan areas with high case rates (including urban and suburban areas of jersey LI) may have similar findings though the timing of peaks could be slightly different (delayed by a few days). Also suggests that despite the fact the timing could have been better (ie earlier) social distancing/lockdowns were amazingly successful. This likely does not represent spread of disease in non major metropolitan areas and rural areas.
  8. Ok just trying to keep you safe brother. I’m working nights tn at Weill-Cornell. Steady flow of covid positive ER is pretty busy
  9. That’s usually an indication for hospital admission...sorry but don’t want you to end up getting worse!
  10. Honestly-not bad and thank you for asking. I’m happier that I am finally able to assist on the front lines. I felt useless being home and while it can be difficult work and the patients are very ill (Notwithstanding my own risk), it is very rewarding and I’m thrilled to have the opportunity to contribute in this way
  11. The imperial model from England would’ve been correct. Millions would’ve died
  12. Anyone see this? Suggested R0 of 5.7 which is insanely high number and suggests why spread was rampant in nursing homes and people living in close quarters https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287
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