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Met Student
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About michaeld021

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  • Birthday 12/02/2000

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    North Bellmore New York

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  1. So I’m still learning and one thing I don’t know a lot about is Lake Effect Snow.... what is everyone’s opinion on how the LES season is looking for this year and how do you determine that? Just trying to learn some more so I can broad my knowledge out more
  2. Wouldnt the cooling near the date line imply of more of a chance of ridging in the east?
  3. Over the last 7 days, the warm blob in the pacific has cooled some. While it is still above average in terms of temps, if it continues to cool it worries me that it will cause many issues for snow lovers in the eastern united states. However I really do like the potential for a major blocking pattern when I look at these SST
  4. New October JAMSTEC is in. It keeps hopes alive for snow lovers. It is interesting to note, out of all the climate models the JAMSTEC is the only one showing below average temps.
  5. One thing I am not liking for the looks of early season snowfall is the NAO, AO, and PNA and the EPO. The euro weeklies which are shown below go through November 25th and the trend looks to be around netural especially for the NAO and AO with a trend towards the positive side it looks like towards the end of the run. I also dont like the look of the PNA with the mean around the netural mark once again. What does this tell me? In my opinion the east coast will not see any decent snows until a least the beginning of december if these trends are right. Also any cold shots will be short lived. However if you are inland I personally think you could see at least some snow around the time frame of Halloween + or - a couple days obviously. Now one thing I do like though is the MJO forecast to be in phase 1 and it looks like it is forecasted to go into phase 8. Also another thing positive I see is the QBO continuing to decrease over the last few months. Currently it is around 8.25 (my computer wont let me post chart of qbo) and looks to be on a trend decreasing. If the QBO gets between -5 to 5 give or take, that usually is a good sign for winter lovers along the east coast. As we have all heard so far about low solar that is another good trend, but after last winter where we also had low solar I am taking that with a grain of salt for now. So overall on the coast dont expect decent snow anytime soon and in the longrun there are many bleh signs for this upcoming winter and some decent signs. Lets see where things go the next few weeks.
  6. The new UKMET seasonal is out and it does not look good for snow lovers. Looks like a strong southeast ridge featured on this run. Anyone have any thoughts on why the UKMET seasonal is doing what it’s doing?
  7. potential boxing day storm as in terms of not being seen by models until inside 48 hours? remember the storm has trended later into a saturday night sunday event. 12z runs should continue the NW trend as teleconnections support NW and not surpressed. Gut feeling says we are dealing with a snowstorm on our hands for a few people.
  8. its a wave that it not like the costal storm we were looking at yesterday. this storm is done except maybe a coating to an inch
  9. Windshield wiper effect most likely
  10. it has the LP moving SE at one point...... trash
  11. NAVGEM thumps during prime hours
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