Radders

One of my colleagues who lives in NYC was tested for COVID19 on 3/20. She only just received her result yesterday, 10 days later. She started getting sick around March 5th - would have been exposed in late Feb - well before the social distancing measures. I am sure there are countless cases like this, but it does demonstrate the massive time lag between exposure and testing results being reported. I think we are going to see the cases continue to climb like this for at least another week of two.

The rate of new infections in Italy is definitely slowing down and plateauing. The data isn't perfect so you are going to see bumps. It is going to take a week or two for the deaths to respond and stabilize to the leveling off of the new cases. Let's hope the new cases start to decrease soon.

That is some serious testing....

One country to keep an eye on from a data stats perspective is South Korea. Believe that they have trust worthy data and their testing game is strong. When you look at the morbidity rate there, it is much lower than the global average of 3.4%,. S Korea has 48 deaths and a total of 7048 cases. Granted many cases are still active, but that is 0.68% death rate. Not sure of what the breakdown in cases across age groups is there though. Edit - also their serious / critical count is 36 out of 6875 active cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Amen to that. I am just over the border from you in Milford, PA - We had more squalls here last night and the snow cover looks pretty decent out there now.

Yeah i am in Hudson Heights, just north of the GW bridge at around 260'. It is the highest point in Manhattan up here. Every little helps and often up here it can look like a totally different world to midtown and the busier neighborhoods.

This board is just relentless with enthusiasm. Love It. Great discussion as always.

I am up in southern Dutchess, and i am looking at the latest HRRR and RAP models - they have the N-S band rotting over the hudson valley until about 10pm. I didn't think I'd make it over a foot but now i am starting to think it is doable.

Off to the races quickly here in southern Dutchess. Already 2” down and heavy snow. Elevation is only 300’

It sure is!!

Incredible post. Thanks John. Looking forward to watching how all of this evolves over the next week or so.

Sunday - 11/5. 9am when I am running the NYC Marathon

Absolutely ridiculous solution. Wow

Ha! Happy we can help. ECMWF headquarters are also in the UK (I think) so Brits might be the brains behind that one too. It's a shame that the UKMET model output will never show this kind of storm in the UK. This would be the storm of the century in London.