Radders

UK has a lot of herd immunity also. They are one of the worst countries in the world when it comes to deaths rates which implies they were hit very hard, much like the northeast USA.

It is a great community. I am on Pinehurst Ave close to Bennett Park - the highest natural elevation in Manhattan!

Nice - I am in Washington Heights also. Whereabouts in the hood did you move to?

Italy is testing up a storm right now. They are running over 60K tests a day. Edit - That's 3 times the rate the UK is testing.

Concerning. Curious to see if the cases go up again today for NY - The testing capacity seems to have increased, but it is worrying that as they do more tests, the percentage of positives goes up!

Right, thats the worrying part. That said 5-7 days lag before symptoms show 7 day lag until symptoms are serious enough for hospitalization and qualification for a test another 7-10 days lag on receiving testing results That is a 3 week lag right there...

Yeah, I was thinking exactly the same thing. These lag times make it hard to not be pessimistic.

One of my colleagues who lives in NYC was tested for COVID19 on 3/20. She only just received her result yesterday, 10 days later. She started getting sick around March 5th - would have been exposed in late Feb - well before the social distancing measures. I am sure there are countless cases like this, but it does demonstrate the massive time lag between exposure and testing results being reported. I think we are going to see the cases continue to climb like this for at least another week of two.

The rate of new infections in Italy is definitely slowing down and plateauing. The data isn't perfect so you are going to see bumps. It is going to take a week or two for the deaths to respond and stabilize to the leveling off of the new cases. Let's hope the new cases start to decrease soon.

That is some serious testing....

One country to keep an eye on from a data stats perspective is South Korea. Believe that they have trust worthy data and their testing game is strong. When you look at the morbidity rate there, it is much lower than the global average of 3.4%,. S Korea has 48 deaths and a total of 7048 cases. Granted many cases are still active, but that is 0.68% death rate. Not sure of what the breakdown in cases across age groups is there though. Edit - also their serious / critical count is 36 out of 6875 active cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Amen to that. I am just over the border from you in Milford, PA - We had more squalls here last night and the snow cover looks pretty decent out there now.

Yeah i am in Hudson Heights, just north of the GW bridge at around 260'. It is the highest point in Manhattan up here. Every little helps and often up here it can look like a totally different world to midtown and the busier neighborhoods.

This board is just relentless with enthusiasm. Love It. Great discussion as always.

I am up in southern Dutchess, and i am looking at the latest HRRR and RAP models - they have the N-S band rotting over the hudson valley until about 10pm. I didn't think I'd make it over a foot but now i am starting to think it is doable.