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RAllen964

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About RAllen964

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    Middletown, NJ

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  1. I am not going to say watch but. Analogs suggest 2010/2011. What occurred around early/mid December? SSW. what occurred 3rd week of December that year? .......
  2. Fair, but I wasn’t envisioning a ULL set up for it. Would prefer that ULL to be further east. Hopefully we can get there
  3. ULL sits and spins to the blocking. just in the exact worst spot for us lol
  4. Not how I envisioned my 12/5 call a few weeks back, but I’ll sure take this a lot more.
  5. Rots meaning staying power or Rots as warmth erodes the cold
  6. You’re 100% correct - I was just referring to the ONI data being nearly identical to 2011-12.
  7. Our current ONI trend marches 2011-2012 perfectly. Wouldn’t be shocked if this is the exactly matched analog.
  8. Yeah I mean this is banter and I don't want our Moderator friends giving me the tisk tisk. lol But if you're choosing to have a big family event, 60's for outside dining sure is nice (and I guess safer)
  9. I mean considering the current COVID situation, maybe it's not a bad thing? Have to look at it from some positive side. Taking a look a the current CPC ONI data/trends, the years 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 keep appearing as the most likely tropical forcing history we can look at from past data. Talk about 2 different sides of the spectrum.....
  10. Bingo - which is why I was buying into the trends and sharing a similar thought with @Webberweather Looks like GEFS wins for the reasoning @rb924119noted yesterday.
  11. Totally get it and see your points. It’s interesting how ECMWF MJO demterminatic though is less bullish than EPS Mean and Control. That’s been the signal to me saying “ok - there’s a catch here when EPS is more bullish”
  12. Appreciate that. I am starting to get a little nervous of a longer prospecting window for this winter based on some data I am seeing on Nina, specifically location. Would really like to see a rebound on SsT in 3 and 1-2.
  13. I don't want to butt in on this conversation, but I agree. In this field, hobby, whatever you want to call its a mixture of of understanding the science, using the tools available to aid in the science, and then quite frankly, a bit of luck and confidence that your hypothesis is correct. There is no right or wrong answer or reason here.
  14. I respectfully disagree, simply because we are starting to see physical signs occurring. Could it be a false occurrence? Sure. However, there is support to this. So I don't think it's wrong to look at long range if the short range verbatim aligns with the overall pattern trends. The new question I have to all of this is how does the MJO enhance the pattern? IF the ECMWF is right, well I think we got a shot as I have pointed for the last week of Nov and first week of December for our first area wide snowfall, and I believe it may be the start of a S
  15. Anthony with a fabulous pick up here. Signs are definetely beginning to show for an interesting end to November and first half of December. be careful this evening all!
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