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RAllen964

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About RAllen964

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    Middletown, NJ

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  1. Looking at the fronto - There is actually some interesting things showing up that from the surface projection you’d be surprised about. from hour 26-32 your frontogensis is screaming from essentially a line from philly to nyc moving north every hour. This is coinciding with extremely strong precipitation rates, while the WAA is pushing north. Here’s an example of hour 29 You are probably looking at a hell of a freezing rain/sleet event right now between say Trenton to Sandy Hook North to NYC? Why? This strong of fronto causes cooling of column, until you hit about -4C this should overwhelm your column (missing the fact that there is probably CAD occurring that’s being poorly detected) Now here’s the question - obviously 850s will continue to warm, right? Let’s take a look at hour 32 -850s getting close to -6 no doubt it’s rain. But it check the 10mb surface - sure looks like a shift to NE winds to me as that 850 rises. This should in theory now lock in that low level cold of whatever has already fallen as frozen. these are just my thoughts. I’m probably gasping a little but i found these little tidbits interesting and wanted to see your thoughts.
  2. My opinion there was ton of noise on that run. I have a hard time seeing the Initial push being up to PA and then sinking south, while the airmass has already pushing through in PA. shod be further south
  3. Having a hard time believing that these PVA are gonna run through at 1034mb H sinking down -- The surface low should move more E then what model is predicating at lower latitude.
  4. I’ll be dead honest - I thought we were dead in the water based on 12z but that point that the sampling is showing a weaker disturbance... if, just if, causes the whole heights to change downwind. Man it’s gonna be close for for NYC
  5. That’s a pretty significant heights shift
  6. OKX has a Winter Storm Watch of Nassau!?! what am I missing?
  7. Is it just me, or is anyone noticing any red flags on the NAM 12k at 51 aka, CCB and low pressure signals off the coast?
  8. That’s not 100, but 25-50 sure feels like it in this scenario.
  9. To me, that is your nail in the coffin if your south or east of NYC. Gonna be a nice cold rain after 1-2” if that’s of snow.
  10. Im not a GEFS guy, so hopefully someone like @33andrain or of equal expertise could answer this. thats the most group of south ens. Yet that I can remember seeing, no? I mean the as we’ve had individuals, but not that grouped.
  11. If there’s ever a time to eat a meatball sub for lunch, today’s the day folks.
  12. Only thing worse than 33 and rain? 31 and rain.
  13. If this is accurate - then it’s going to be one hell of a battle at 00z tonight
  14. UKMET images aren’t out til roughly 12:10-15ish Plot maps might be earlier as shown.
  15. Quick look at thermals NAM is an ice storm from Wall NJ north
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