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RAllen964

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About RAllen964

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    Middletown, NJ

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  1. Recon just found 985 RI beginning...
  2. You know, I am wathcing the Sandwich GOES-E. Is it me, or do this thing look like it's trying to relocate the center back east?
  3. It would be interested to see how the wind depictions occur due to the storm track further west with lift off the ocean. Including heavy rain potential causing those 850 winds to mix down could steel lead to Tropical Storm conditions at the least for a good portion of the area. I am still not confident on the west track though. Those towers around the eyewall are really beginning to fire based on IR right now .
  4. Simply, as was stated above Weaker = West Stronger = Not as west lol There does appear to be something changing though with the storm right now based on Radar. We may be starting to see the loss of shear here. The next 12/24 hours determines the fate for us up here. I can not stress this enough, but do not trust the model guidance right now. Too many swings/windshield wiper effects going on due to the shear vs. SST effects through out the levels of the storm at this point.
  5. UKMET is WAY west. Furthest W envelope I have seen yet.
  6. Possible Tropical Storm impacts this weekend, and the board is dead. Bueller?
  7. I will say the 6z EURO was also very aggressive with gusts hitting 80 on the NJ coast in Monmouth and LI - this May not be very far off
  8. I am on the Bermuda High train for this summer for the area. Hazy, Hot and Humid will be the words of this summer. I am not so sure I am on the severe weather/heavy rain train though.
  9. Something else to keep in the back of your mind. Our AO/NAO is going to have to swing negative for a period sometime this summer. Local enhancement + La Niña + -NAO spells higher than normal trouble this summer/fall.
  10. I will say - look at how EPS has handled the Carolina system. Not well.
  11. I am confident right now that we should feel La Niña conditions this summer, along with a pretty good take of the WAR and Bermuda High. I am expecting an average hurricane season. I do think Mid Atlantic and Northeast have a higher than normal chance of tropical activity this year, especially if -NAO develops, which I am leaning towards.
  12. early summer indications point to La Niña conditions with a Slightly Negative to Neutral NAO. expecting hazy hot and humid conditions and higher than normal shots are tropical activity in the Northeast, based on what i see ATM.
  13. That’s the best Indies from the ENS all winter. Impressive run.
  14. You do realize that it takes substantial sudden change to snow in a bad pattern? I ask that you show the mechanism that allows the snowfall.
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