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About RAllen964

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    Middletown, NJ

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  1. I am on the Bermuda High train for this summer for the area. Hazy, Hot and Humid will be the words of this summer. I am not so sure I am on the severe weather/heavy rain train though.
  2. Something else to keep in the back of your mind. Our AO/NAO is going to have to swing negative for a period sometime this summer. Local enhancement + La Niña + -NAO spells higher than normal trouble this summer/fall.
  3. I will say - look at how EPS has handled the Carolina system. Not well.
  4. I am confident right now that we should feel La Niña conditions this summer, along with a pretty good take of the WAR and Bermuda High. I am expecting an average hurricane season. I do think Mid Atlantic and Northeast have a higher than normal chance of tropical activity this year, especially if -NAO develops, which I am leaning towards.
  5. early summer indications point to La Niña conditions with a Slightly Negative to Neutral NAO. expecting hazy hot and humid conditions and higher than normal shots are tropical activity in the Northeast, based on what i see ATM.
  6. That’s the best Indies from the ENS all winter. Impressive run.
  7. You do realize that it takes substantial sudden change to snow in a bad pattern? I ask that you show the mechanism that allows the snowfall.
  8. This is a fair post that I haven’t seen responded to yet. Based on everything I am seeing, you’re leaning more pure luck here. The only caveat to this post is that having an AO so anamously high may through some wild card/surprises here as it is extremely rare.
  9. 00z tonight is going to be very interesting. The fact that when all the models move to the Euro and then the Euro/EPS moves west after leads me to believe the amount of short waves is something that models can’t handle right now until there is better sampling.
  10. I find it interesting that no other layer of the atmosphere can find the energy that branches off at 500 on the northern piece. The STJ is west east, how in the hell is the energy going northeast to southwest, odd to me
  11. Yea early trends this morning are not good for a phased solution. Definetely a trend OTS this morning, which in the long run may not be a bad thing
  12. Exactly. Unfortunately there are individuals who believe unless the Euro is on board, it’s nothing. While to a degree in certain factors you can say it’s understandable, the fact is the EURO has been slightly off since its upgrades, especially when it comes to east coast cyclogensis. My idea is tonight is the first night that you can start to assimilate an idea for what’s going to happen - the window narrows tomorrow, and then by Thursday night you have your general forecast. Unfortunately, due to the amount of shortwave energy cycling through the atmosphere, that’s the only way you can proceed.
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