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About RAllen964

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    Middletown, NJ

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  1. Great point, which I think is completely dependent on the MJO phase. I will say right now, with the MJO leaning towards 7/8/1 phases, that we are looking at temp gradient conditions from NE to SW - meaning I think NYC averages out around 80-85, Philly 85-90 and Hartford 70-80 a good chunk of early summer. (Pre July 4th) There will be 90+ days mixed in, but there's no reason imo to call for 25+ 90+ days for this summer season right now.
  2. I think it’s fair to say we can retire this thread now
  3. Nice to see you guys posted about this, was down there helping to try and control the situation.
  4. West Based La Niña should be in full effect over Strat as the driver between now and around ~March 15th/20th. I would expect to see a few days of mid/uppers 40s and then a quick cool shot til the 20th. After that, i am becoming more convinced we begin to ramp up temp wise and that SE ridge expands due to La Niña re-emerging as the driver. Would not be shocked if we get a mid 60 Last week March /first week of April. would also expect severe storms and flooding events around then too
  5. 100% agree - and I’m becoming increasingly gconcerned about tropical prospect for this year. We were too close to comfort last year on 4/5 storms, and 2 of which directly impacted in some form. I think we are due, and west based la ninas are charctersitically troublesome for our area
  6. I think you’re more likely to see The Scandinavian block meet the SE ridge then anything in March. West based La Niña showing up for spring summer. means check you’re sump pumps, and prepare for the 3H’s of summer - hot humid and hurricane possibilities in the tri-state
  7. As reason's stated below. I would not buy the snowmaps you are seeing in general, yet. I think that 250mb streak is showing this has potential to be an "up the ante" type of storm. Something to me is screaming 7-14" PHL Metro/CNJ to lower suburbs of NYC, but we shall see.
  8. Low level warping on the PV is not sustained without high level warping or split. There’s no allowance for feedback. I previously said my assumption was 2/15 would start the change to spring. Based on this data, (kudos for sharing, I haven’t looked at SSW 1,10,50 hPa since January) I am going to be wrong. However, this does give credence that we will be going from winter to warm spring rather quickly this year in my opinion since the SE ridge will be pumped via the blocking. new target date for end of winter is 3/5 and we may be see out first 60 by St. Pats day 3/17
  9. Just off the police scanner - 5 cars sliding and stuck on a side road on the other side of town.
  10. RE: ZR threat for Monday/Tuesday Keep in mind observations are busting colder than forecasted for a majority of the area. I would really watch out for Tuesday. RAP guidance has been dead on for the last day and a half for today. It’s depiction for Tuesday, literally has me nervous. The I-95 would not have seen something like what the EURO shows Atleast in my memory.
  11. Keep in mind - today’s boundary is no doubt colder than expected. If we get a a little more ice/sleet/snow today, that means Tuesday’s boundary will be colder. I think this is what 3K is trying to tell us. getting a bad feeling around the Monmouth/Middlesex and North area
  12. I am thinking the same boat as you, here. Extremely concerned about the prospects over the next 84 hours. Any ZR Saturday/Sunday only adds to the problems Tuesday brings. Strongly suggest getting perishables together and generators tuned up if they are in your sheds.
  13. I'd rather a heat dome then 1" of ice and I think a lot of this board would probably agree with me on that statement. 1" of ice will completely shut down this area for days. days. - Power would be out for a couple days in a lot of locations, maybe even a week+. Our infrastructure is not designed for this.
  14. Man, that is a loss of power for a while in the I-95 corridor run. Big Yikes run
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