Looking at the fronto - There is actually some interesting things showing up that from the surface projection you’d be surprised about.
from hour 26-32 your frontogensis is screaming from essentially a line from philly to nyc moving north every hour. This is coinciding with extremely strong precipitation rates, while the WAA is pushing north. Here’s an example of hour 29
You are probably looking at a hell of a freezing rain/sleet event right now between say Trenton to Sandy Hook North to NYC? Why? This strong of fronto causes cooling of column, until you hit about -4C this should overwhelm your column (missing the fact that there is probably CAD occurring that’s being poorly detected)
Now here’s the question - obviously 850s will continue to warm, right? Let’s take a look at hour 32 -850s getting close to -6 no doubt it’s rain.
But it check the 10mb surface - sure looks like a shift to NE winds to me as that 850 rises. This should in theory now lock in that low level cold of whatever has already fallen as frozen.
these are just my thoughts. I’m probably gasping a little but i found these little tidbits interesting and wanted to see your thoughts.