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RAllen964

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About RAllen964

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  1. I will say this - it appears we finally will have one thing going for us entering the last week of Jan into February and that is a +PNA is forecasted across every single model projection after being in a -PNA state since Mid December. We have an active STJ, we have had just enough cold to make things work somewhat. All we need is something to slow down the pacific just a little. It wouldn’t take much. This COULD in theory be what we need. I am not saying we’re game on. What I am saying is this should give the board something to hold onto.
  2. Okay - was going to say I come here substantially less in the summer then winter - hell I don’t think I posted from March - October (minus Dorian)
  3. This was my point a few days ago, but I was told that I was incorrect in my assessment. It’s great when one models follows/agree with your opinion - but when a majority differ - you need to be able to put into stock that maybe the idea isn’t valid and switch to a middle of the pack solution. Its been the same situation with most of the teleconnection forecasts.
  4. Ehhhhhh..... let’s see how this storm behaves and sets upstream potential.
  5. What is considered the inactive period for “Retriement”
  6. Looking at Weathernerds, we are 1c over from 925 down at 36. But 33 has one hell of a cold 850-925 (assuming it’s FGEN) If that can hold even an hr longer, we are in WWA criteria @PB GFI
  7. I feel it’s more flow direction. Cranky actually had a small discussion on this this morning. It’s not as bad as previous years
  8. With Respect, the Pacific isn’t really the problem. It isn’t “raging” as in past years
  9. That, essentially is exactly what is going to happen. The reason simply being the NAO will probably drop sometime in late February/Late March - similar to last year. the NAO/AO, with a stronger than forecasted 1mb-5mb TPV, and a slower than forecasted QBO is what the downfall to this winter is.
  10. In fact, based on Skew T soundings for that area it actually looks to get COLDER at the midlevels as the storm goes on. Assuming that’s FGEN with some incredible lifting also, weather nerds shows Rain after all precip has moved East. @PB GFI
  11. Looking at the NAM, one could make a case the storm moves so quickly that there isn’t enough time for mid levels to warm up to a position of pure rain. even so, I would expect more sleet for the Monmouth/Middlesex North of 195 región to Driscoll area
  12. As someone on here mentioned over the last few days - “If you have a block, you have a real good shot in this area” As long as modes can show something - which isn’t asking for much but with how this winter has gone it seems Impossible - we have a shot
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