Cole Baldwin

Wow... the modeling has held this way for multiple days. We don’t see this run to run continuity this far out. The new GFS has the pattern very favorable with a Negative NAO. There is a bowling ball on the Eastern Seabord. The ridging in the central Atlantic is encouraging, preventing a west to east flow.

Congratulations! Sorry for the inactivity because of midterms at my high school. Currently a freshman in HS and want to go there for meteorology. Good luck!

Absolutely could not agree with you anymore. The NAO goes SHARPLY negative on DEC 20. We aren’t even in astronomical winter yet. December ranks behind January, February, and even March in average snowfall. There will be another storm that misses us all there will be storms that hit some of us there will be storms that hit the majority of us. Long way to go this winter just wait 10 days. Not every day will be below average here.

last few words are moved it back south.

0Z NAM stands pat or maybe slightly South. Radar is further north than it's initializing. Low location is slightly further West on this run than 18Z and High is farther out into the Atlantic. The precip shield is smaller. Unfortunately, the North trend has stopped and North of DC won't even see flurries. Oh well, we will likely have a chance from the 20th-25th and it's only December.

❅YES NAM! @Caminhoneiro443 there should be some light-moderate snow north of what the nam says (heavy snow then no snow). Just need ~40 miles to get this up where I am. SRN MD gets several inches on this run. Unfortunately for Charlotte and Raleigh, the trend is for rain to mix in there. High is also off the coast, which prevents the storm from turning ENE. ❅

imo the ice threat in the Ozarks of Arkansas is going un talked about in the media (who are talking about the storm in NC... which is incredible don't get me wrong but there is certainly a HUGE ice threat in the Ozarks) Notice the wedge of warm air from 550-925 mb. The warm air is deeper than a sleet profile. This is certainly a freezing rain profile. The gfs is certainly right on this part. They interestingly have elevation in that part of AR. This will surprise. Over .25 inches of ice is expected. The ice threat in NC is also enormous near Greensboro. WPC pegs the odds at 50/50 for over .25" of Ice Accretion. NWS has very little freezing rain. In AR, the WPC pegs the quarter inch probs. at 40%. I think this is a little low... I would put this at around 60%. A very favorable profile with a wedge of warm air should allow for freezing rain with sfc temps in the upper 20s. BTW NWS Greenville/Spartanburg has a Winter Storm warning for 2-17 inches of snow. Sounds like an I-95 forecast for snow. WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Most of the precipitation will be snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 17 inches are expected, with accumulations increasing from south to north and as elevation increases. Ice accumulations of around a tenth of an inch are also expected.

DEC 20 bois. Great 988 mb low location and there looks to be no confluence. Notice how negative the NAO gets on DEC 20. That is a classic pattern that looks very stormy. DEC 16-17 looks a little warm. Very vigorous shortwave coming through the gulf coast states with a bowling ball in KY/TN/AL. NERLY flow on this GFS. Certainly can change, but it sure looks pretty good for that time period.

0Z NAM is still unimpressive North of Fredericksbug VA. Maybe a slight trend North?

WTF 1-8 inches! That low confidence yet a winter storm watch for 72 hours out? Interesting. Courtesy NWS Greenville/Spartanburg SC URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 405 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... .Cold high pressure along the East Coast will interact with a moist low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate to heavy precipitation will fall as a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the region. Accumulations are expected to be greatest in western North Carolina. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-071100- /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0005.181208T1800Z-181210T1700Z/ Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda 405 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 8 inches are possible. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are also possible. * WHERE...The mountains and foothills of western North Carolina, along and west of the Blue Ridge Escarpment. The highest snow and sleet accumulations are expected to be at high elevations along the Escarpment. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become very difficult or even impossible. Road conditions could deteriorate as early as Saturday night, with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next week. Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. shift this storm 30 miles N and I’m in business. St. Michael the archangel defend us in battle, Cole

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I would tend to agree with the previous posters here. I am gravely concerned about NE GA to Roanoke VA. This includes Charlotte. I’m that the FV3 (New GFS) has near 20 inches in Columbia, SC and almost a foot in Atlanta. First, CAD will not likely reach the Atlanta area. Second, a lot of that is sleet. That should be a major red flag because sleet is FAR more dangerous than snow. I see Raleigh getting a significant ice storm out of this before changing to mainly rain. I see it as the 6” line being around Charlottesville VA (175 miles SW of me) with a sharp northern cutoff. Most of the 18Z guidance has kept the storm well south. Sterling will not declare any set solution on this storm yet. I stand by this opinion, while it is unlikely DC/Balt. Sees a major winter storm, modest accumulations can’t be ruled out however, I don’t see us getting very much. Second half sure looks a lot better. If we could have gotten this just a couple days quicker, the confluence wouldn’t be as strong because we are headed into an incredibly unfavorable 1 week period. I will break this storm down into 4 different regions. These regions will be Charlottesville-Baltimore, Appalachians in NC and SW VA, Charlotte and the upstate of SC, and the Research Tringle. I have provided a map of the regions below: 1) Baltimore-Charlottesville VA (Region 1) As we can see here, there is a Northern pice of energy in NERN ME. This is a classic SUPPRESSION for coastal storms, as that flattens the pattern and forces the storm out to sea. The confluence shown at 500 mb is too strong for a storm to even get to this latitude. The wave in NC and SC is almost like a push, it will probably just force the storm OTS. As a result, expecting light accumulations right now in region 1 with almost nothing toward Baltimore and a more moderate 3”+ in Charlottesville. I will not try and make a snow map because it pisses me off when some guy out there on social media does that. Confidence: 4/10 (Medium) 2) Appalachian Mountains Roanoke VA through Boone, NC to Asheville, NC (Region 2) This place will be the Goldilocks for this storm. Further North, there will be not enough moisture, to the S and E, there will be warm air coming in aloft to produce more ice. This area is west of a stationary front draped in Central SC to Raleigh. That adds lift into Region 2. The mountains will also add lift with the upslope flow (hence why you see upslope snow showers in mountainous terrain). The snowfall output from the FV3 is insane (I ALREADY KNOW THAT SLEET IS COUNTED! Nevertheless someone in Region 2 will wake up with 2 feet of snow Monday. The area in the Black circle will see primarily snow. The near 20 inch amount in Columbia SC will probably be 70% sleet. Also, this will most likely not fall at a 10:1 ratio the whole event. Though, it will be a historic storm for this region Confidence: 8/10 (High) 3) Charlotte, NC and the Suburbs (Region 3) This is where things get dicey. The snow output above is overdone for Charlotte. Region 3 is where things get dicey with precipitation type. This region should start out as a mix then change to snow, then change to sleet, then back to snow. Overall I think this zone manages at least 6 inches. Charlotte should be near the 6” mark (NOT AN EXACT SNOW AMOUT too early!!!) Red is the rain/ snow line and represents mixed precip Confidence: 6/10 (Medium) 4) Raleigh NC and the Research Triangle (Region 4) This area should start out as rain briefly and change to snow. After that, there should be some mixing before changing to rain. There will be snow on the back side as this storm as it scurries OTS. The confidence here is low (I would say 3/10) because solid/liquid will be a huge issue in Region 4. This region will see a shift to rain. The question is how far west does that go into Region 3. Does a portion of Region 3 change to alll rain or just mix? TBD Peace in Christ, Cole

18Z GFS... needs a NW nudge goes ENE from here on out. Still trending NW with a major change from 12Z but again need the low to pass inside of Hatteras.

For that january 2016 storm, I was in the bullseye in Maryland. The modeling was a tad more NE than this modeling. I think it will be a sharp cutoff.This modeling again is a tad SW. I will wait to go full on weenie mode for 24-48 hours. Though, 18Z trends are indeed good. My question for you all is the threat from Philly south.

Great post joe!