Cole Baldwin

Haven’t been on here in a while, but currently 68/63. Tornado Watch till 12 AM. The instability is limited here under 1K j/kg so the question is can the storms still produce damaging winds or a tornado given the shear. It’s going to be raining till 5 PM, so that reduces our window for sun to just 3 hours. In the SLGT risk here.

I measured 4.6 inches here.

This site is living up to its name today for me. 33 and rain here (western suburbs of Baltimore) ZR up in Carroll County (NW of me)

Yea but ZR wouldn’t accrete as well given the precipitation being heavy. However, it is an incredibly nice run. Hopefully we can sniff out 5-8” out of this one. This would be the only scenario I root for ZR over RA because the snow wouldn’t melt. But overall, love the trends for this area.

Wow... gets me AN snowfall if this verifies which this winter we have actually been lucky down here. Would be an 8-12” event.

That's an upper end ADV event for me. Right now, I say 4-6 inches of snow (lower end warning) because I think the storm has more moisture with it than currently shown as did the January 13th storm. Para says a 2-4 inch event. FV3 for anyone interested:

Yeah, the Weather Channel said mostly rain last night for me... boy was that wrong. My forecast for 1/4 inch of ice was correct. Sterling said “a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain” they were under the storm total freezing rain by 2/10 of an inch.

Changed to rain here. On to the 20th. .25 inch of ZR. Power out in some areas.

GEFS for 2/18-2/21: Not much subtraction to do for the 20th as we are not getting much snow tonight. 10 inch mean isn't bad.

Good Lord, that is a TON if snow in the Sierras. @Allsnow want that storm on 2/16 to cut west as far as possible or form a coastal that is far enough offshore that it produces snow along I-95.

Sterling discussion: There is a WWA for Northern Baltimore County for the second round. (not me, I live in Southern Baltimore) There are additional counties/zones under a Winter Storm Watch. Will be awaiting 12Z guidance to decided how to address these areas, and others. Plan will be to add onto the Advisory across northern Maryland once confidence rises. Do believe that there will be another round of icy concerns (sleet/freezing rain) but the scope and severity still needs to be pinned down. If we can get to 34 today, I think concerns ease a bit on Snow/Ice. I am incredibly worried about ZR tonight, which could be a 1/4 inch to locally 1/2 inch along and NW of I-95. Further Northeast, I think NYC gets a good thump of 3-5 inches of snow. I was expecting to be at 36 or 37 right now, but I am stuck at 32.8. I will see all 3 types of winter precipitation tonight: SN, IP, ZR. The question is how much of each. Right now, I have about 1.5 inches of sleet on the ground. This is a pure nowcasting event as no one can nail the thermals aloft and at the sfc. My personal prediction: I lean more toward snow for tonight going over to ZR, which could accumulate up to .25 inch.

Sorry for poor quality, but we have a nice coating of snow now. Down to 29 here with moderate snow.

I think NYC gets at least 2-4 inches but down in my area, I am concerned for the potential for .25” of ZR or more. I think precip starts as some sleet or snow at the onset, changing to freezing rain Monday with maybe a brief changeover to rain and then all freezing rain overnight into Tuesday morning before going over to all rain. CAD is prone to overperforming though.

Hasn’t been too bad in Baltimore. A big 2/10-3/10 period would make a C+/B- into an A-. We’ve had a rough couple years where NYC has been AN and 2016-17 was miserable. 2.9” of snow all winter and the worst part was that the March 14, 2017 storm busted badly. 2017-18 was slightly better; lots of light snow events but nothing above 5”. 2018-19 has been much better down here. It’s weird how I have 5 times as much snow as Boston does. We all of the sudden go from incredibly unlicky to incredibly lucky.