A look at Thursday, 11/7-11/10 cold outbreak forecast. Highs may stay in the thirties and we may get 'burbs all the way down into the upper teens to low twenties. This would fall about 1-4 degrees below normal for the middle of January. In other words, this would be a seasonable cold day for JANUARY. For November, I think we have a BN to well BN temperature anomaly and near to slightly above normal. Specific numbers on temps: -3 to -7 areawide and about 95-110% of normal precip. I think that snowfall reaches the coast at some point in November. This month is generally a good prelude to how the winter is going to go. I will only use one example as I have a lot more to get to here. 2013-14 is the anomaly I will use. Now, that winter was an incredibly rare instance of BN Temps/AN precip/AN snow with a +AO and +NAO. The -EPO and WPO dominated that winter. I am mainly trying to discuss November and this beautiful month's influence on winter.
Here are your November 2013 anomalies:
Warm in the Great Basin. Essentially, everywhere EAST of the Rockies is 2-4 degrees BN. Mind you, we did have our first snowfall in Baltimore on thanksgiving eve (11/27).
Look at the cold up in Southern Canada and the upper plains. That is up to TEN degrees BN which would be a historically cold December for those regions. Notice temps near to slightly AN (0 to +2) in the month of December.
Man, look at that cold air. East of the Mississippi is well BN except for NNE. The same map generally took place in February.
Now, onto November:
Section 1: CPC
I think this is about right. At the 6-10 day window, we should be experiencing our coldest temperatures of the season thus far. If highs are in the 30s, this would be about 15-20 degrees BN (I'm talking about DC-BOS) for the area.
This cold weather will stick around into mid month. It is an encouraging sign that we see >60% probs of BN 8-14 days out. We could wee the probs go up a little bit as confidence increases. Models (ensembles and op) are trying to now keep cold air around until at the very least 11/20.
I really do not see ~80% of the country being AN. There is the possibility BN temps can continue for the rest of NOV unlike what conventional wisdom was saying 2 weeks ago. This may mean a warmer than normal December. However, that is alright. If you want, you can check other analogs with a cold November. All I care is that we have a snowy JAN and FEB. NOV/DEC/MAR are just a bonus to January and February.
Section 2: Ensembles 11/7-11/11
Wow. 39 at DCA, 38 at IAD, 39 at BWI, 38 at PHI, 38 at JFK, 37 at LGA, 36 at BOS. I think this has a good shot at verifying. The GFS has showed this for days now.
Barely staying above 20 in the suburbs. This is typical for JAN.
Still 39-43 in the area. Not unimpressive cold.
Not quite as bullish as the GFS here with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.