Cole Baldwin

People are reportedly being urged to use flotation devices and break through the attics of their homes in Grand Bahama. Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/world/hurricane-dorian-latest-massive-flooding-unleashed-across-bahamas-as-people-urged-to-find-flotation-a4227291.html%3famp

Pressure at 913. Winds up to 180. Hurricane watch in FL. I’m getting a little nervous this could ride the coast of FL. Expected to be a Cat 5 or 4 for another 2 days.

Looks west of 18z. Right turn around 79-79.5 W

944/145 8 AM advisory. W of 75/76 ish west it will be very hard for a strike or near strike to not happen. He will go toward the trough. The average error 96h out is 155 miles. Florida is in the game. GA-NC is in the game. The storm IMO would be a Cat 3 or 4 ish should it remain offshore of FL and hit the Carolinas.

Tropical Storm conditions where I am per GFS and hurricane cat 1 conditions for OCMD.

This might be stronger than matthew. Even if it stays just offshore, there would still be over 100 mph winds on the coast.

Might be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. FL winds 100 kts

986 to 972 in 18 hours

Freeport, Bahamas takes a direct hit on that run. It would be the 2nd since 2016 (Matthew)

11 PM advisory is going to be interesting.

AF300 recorded 86 kts. Seeing both planes in Dorian recording 85-87 kts should yield a 100 mph 11 PM advisory.

Hurricane Watches will likely go up for the NW Bahamas tomorrow or early Saturday. Intermediate advisories will start when watches are put up for any land area. DORIAN DISCUSSION #22 (Important parts) There has been little overall change in the structure of Dorian today. The hurricane has several well-defined bands of convection wrapping into the center and a small central dense overcast. The small eye has not been as apparent in geostationary satellite imagery this afternoon, but the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported concentric eyewall diameters of 4 and 22 n mi several hours ago. The latest satellite intensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 75 kt, which is also in line with the earlier SFMR data from the aircraft. The next reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this evening. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle, with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous advisory at 96 and 120 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Dorian will be moving through a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow for at least steady intensification, and Dorian is forecast to become major hurricane on Friday. Dorian is predicted to remain a dangerous hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper end of the guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and FSSE models. The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing, and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC model cycle. Key Messages: 1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.5N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.8N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 25.2N 70.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.5N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 27.0N 77.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND Key takeaways (from me): A) The NHC seems to think that Dorian will intensify rapidly sometime tonight. Unfortunately, we cannot use GOES 16/17. Using cloud top satellite would be better during overnight hours. When the storm approaches the SE US, it is holding steady around upper end cat 3/low end cat 4. Most guidance is mid cat 3. b) There is considerable model spread. We will not get a better idea of landfall location until at least 48 hrs from now. Model guidance ranges from a Port St. Lucie to a Matthew 2.0. C) Tonight's model runs at 00z will be the most important model runs yet. It will incorporate data from the RECON mission into the hurricane and we will see if there is rapid intensification going on around 11 PM. It could also make the intensity forecast much easier to nail down. Thus, I will stay up for these model runs tonight. Anyone know when the HMON and the HWRF run at 00z?

997 to 986 in 6 hours. I would be shocked for Dorian to not be a Cat 2 come 11 AM. TS winds now almost a slam dunk (~85%). Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29 deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model output. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt. Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

Slight adjustment south in track. Still an average 150-200 miles error on either side, so I expect the day 4-5 track and intensity to change. Intensity still pegged at 115 at FL landfall (low-end 3)

The Nrn. core has some very cold cloud tops. I can see an eye starting to form. 5 PM advisory in about 20 mins