AwkwardJoe99 - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content


Met Student
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About AwkwardJoe99

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  • Birthday 11/18/1999

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    Wallington, NJ

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  1. Focus more on the track, less on the intensity, especially 3 days out and on a lower resolution global model like the UKMET, CMC, etc.
  2. a rare rough day for us yankee fans... nasty game also, 98/76/114... equally nasty
  3. 96/75/108... I just can’t believe this isn’t the worst it’s gonna get this week
  4. reporting from Millersville University: roads and sidewalks finally coated after 2 and 1/2 hours of snow, about an inch on other surfaces, temp currently running 1-2 degrees below forecast and in prime position for quick accumulations when the heavier rates get to the area
  5. earlier in the model cycle, this would’ve been a solid argument. but this is more likely proper sampling and data ingestion due to the system being on land finally leading to better and more accurate forecasts. we’re a lil less than 48 hours out for most locations on this storm. edit: if this is too much of an assumption or if i’m wrong, someone more experienced please tell me
  6. gfs having trash thermals is nothing new, the trends aloft are nice to see but dont add up to much at the current timeframe. its time has passed, onto mesoscale!
  7. (insert obligatory overexaggeration that the Euro got Sandy right 2 weeks in advance)
  8. similarities to november. models are really slow at picking up this CAD. ukie was first to do it but was inconsistent. the nam is finally getting a grip on it and, if I remember correctly, was one of the first to recognize it in the “surprise” november event. and it was still undermodeled. y’all remember.
  9. mesoscale models become more and more important now, operationals are slowly phasing out at this timeframe
  10. the wild thing that not enough people are talking about is that the nam STILL probably slightly overestimated the strength at initialization and is STILL probably underestimating the level of CAD thats gonna be at play. there’s still room for a few more ticks of improvement.
  11. nam has p-type issues, dont focus on r/s line yet. i thought the amount of non-frozen precip was fairly suspicious. so, using the pivotalweather sounding tool, best estimate for most precip in the “non-frozen” as shown on the surface map was snow. models on a whole are having a hard time depicting CAD as of rn but the soundings are picking it up.
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