FlemingtonPhil - 33andrain Jump to content

FlemingtonPhil

Enthusiast
  • Content Count

    46
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

58 Excellent

About FlemingtonPhil

  • Rank
    Member

Personal Information

  • Location
    Flemington

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Right, I'm not saying that couldn't happen, but @Heavy snow is trying to come up with a theory for why it's snowing south of the "mix line" and south of more northerly locations. I don't think the VA mesolow would be able to do that without changing more north locations back to snow first. I like @forkyforks idea better that there's some low level lift below the warm tongue at 800mb
  2. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    I don't think that's right. Where's cold air aloft going to come from for "southern metro friends" if it's not being advected south through the Hudson Valley?
  3. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    I agree. I think we're headed towards the most widespread significant icing event in a long time
  4. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Yeah without checking soundings I dunno ...I just know the likelihood of plain rain is diminishing N & W of 202 and maybe 1.
  5. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Northerly or dead wind north of 78. I really doubt they're going above freezing before precipitation ends. We'd all better hope we can keep a sleet profile.
  6. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    @CCB! Was it you who posted some guidance suggesting the HP position actually favored cold air angled towards the metro rather than Poconos/NWNJ? Given the cc radar depiction of the mix zone I'd say that was spot on.
  7. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    It is ROARING sleet in Flemington. It sounds like a wind driven rain out there.
  8. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    He has mixed up @rb924119 and @ru848789 No idea how that could happen.
  9. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    I'm under that. I can count the flakes. It's all virga.
  10. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    What's the discrepancy in your dewpoint?
  11. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Agree. Here's the T/Td chart for Hamilton in Mercer County. Not the look for a location about to see snow break out. Lots of locations in central/northern NJ have Dews dropping still. WAA has been impressive this evening in eastern PA, but the high in Quebec is flexing, too.
  12. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Last six runs of the hi-res NAM. Badly missing the dry air in Mercer-Monmouth where few points have been off by 4-5 degrees. Those returns in Berks/Bucks won't hit the ground in CNJ. Will be interesting to see if that plays to our favor or detriment down the road.
  13. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Can you go a little further with this explanation? I'd think that you'd want to lift a parcel BELOW up into the DGZ to cool it to that ripe temperature. As opposed to lifting it vertically FROM the DGZ to a higher level/colder temperature/ drier regime. Am I correct that the DGZ is a zone of ideal temperature for dendrites to crystallize?
  14. FlemingtonPhil

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Not sure but it looks like a whole lotta IP or ZR that's for sure.
×