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FlemingtonPhil

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  1. Curious, what's behind the wall? Looks like a pretty good but of nothing in CPA. It's not like models magically don't know how to hand qpf when it's imminent.
  2. Not sure about that. I have a webcam in Hopewell, nothing yet. Nothing here in Flemington, and nothing at my buddy in Hillsborough.
  3. This is pretty interesting. Southern Burlington County, NJ. After that first band went through an hour ago, the dewpoint actually dropped again. So after that low level saturation, the very dry (and colder) air must have sunk mixed down from the layer aloft. That knocked the T and dP down after the band passed.
  4. Looks like considerably more convective activity from LA to TN in reality compared to the most recent HRRR. I've noticed that model solutions with warmer mid-levels for this afternoon were coupled to stronger convection over the MS and OH Valley this morning. Basically the stronger and more organized these storms are, the stronger the southeasterly LLJ flow at H8 out ahead of the cold front. Correspondingly the farther N it punches up into the mid Atlantic and taints ratios or flips to sleet. I think today is pretty sleety across NJ.
  5. Warmer mid-levels on the 3k NAM likely related to stronger convection/LHR across the Ohio Valley. Will have to watch that line of storms.
  6. that's the best Omega/dgz sync I've seen on any model all week.
  7. Understood, I am referring more to the solutions from Mon/Tue when I say we've trended to this point. I recognize that several posters pointed out this likelihood, I think @rb924119 gets a tip of the cap.
  8. Dunno how to do the trend thing but a pretty remarkable trend of the GFS to take the HP center from our area and slide it SE instead of northeast. The result obviously is a quicker switch to winds with a tainting southerly component. Coupled with the deeper sfc low which wraps the +PWAT anomaly up into Canada instead of keeping it concentrated over the coastal plain...you get this drier, warmer scenario. Bummer.
  9. Yeah you're right. I watched it "weaken" as soon as it passed KDIX
  10. I think you haven't been reading much tonight. It started as rain in Hunterdon County, NJ tonight.
  11. man those Mt Holly snowfall forecast for NJ look trash now. Upton wins this round. I actually am thinking maybe it's better that they don't compromise or collaborate...gives people in the region the notion that there's differencing professional opinions on an outcome.
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