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USCG RS

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  1. Definitely an outer eyewall developing there http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html
  2. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html @33andrain beat me to it.
  3. The satellite representation is that of a major hurricane. The outflow is well established, especially poleward and equatorward. The eye is clearly visible and the cloud tops are tall, cold and completely surrounding a well defined eye. Likewise, microwave imagery shows a well defined and closed eye.
  4. Newest imagery Newest satellite imagery showing some very cold cloud tops over the center.
  5. It's is a possibility, with the slow movement and the the troughs still not fully sampled, globals are having issues. Likewise, the ridge over the Atlantic is not perfectly understood yet.
  6. They're talking about when the CCB sets up. This storm is still developing, when this storm begins to truly wrap up, it will drag the cold air towards the center and allow the layers to cool. Therefore, the mid levels should cool off and during this time Upton believes the ratios will be 10:1+
  7. You'll learn.. Use these models with a grain of salt. The HRRR tends to go down hill after 4+ hrs out. The RAP I never use for winter weather events.
  8. This is what I was saying before. The confluence has been progressively ticking weaker with each run while the NAO has been flipping from negative to positive. Combine that with that LP system crashing into the west coast and changing the orientation of the PNA, and I can see why models are not showing this as tucked.
  9. In the interest of learning, where do you feel I am wrong, rather, what does not make sense?
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