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Frank_Wx last won the day on January 13 2017

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About Frank_Wx

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    NJ Strong Weather

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    Cranford, NJ

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  1. Frank_Wx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    I'm not so sure. Logically (my unscientific guess), I am thinking we can't have so many anomalies in North America over an extended period of time. The atmosphere will tend to balance itself out. All these years of -EPO/-WPO has kept the NAO mainly positive. Last March we saw a -EPO/-WPO/-NAO so it's not like it can't happen. I just do not think it is a sustainable pattern year after year. If only we saw this set-up early February 2018 instead of March 2018. The winter would have gone down as the snowiest on record in some part with all those storms that came up the coast likely being in the form of snow.
  2. Frank_Wx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    The potential Nor'easter next week could be a prelude for what's to come this winter. One thing you will notice from this 500mb map is the high latitude blocking is confined to the Pacific. The EPO/PNA should be in predominately negative stages as a result of incoming El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific. However, it looks like the NAO this winter will be in a predominately positive stage. No shocker here. This has been the story of our past winters for what...the last decade? Thought toward the end of last winter we did see a nice -NAO stretch but it affected our spring more than winter in my opinion. Frequent coastal storms this winter are likely but we'll need to time the southern branch well with the northern branch to get the cold air and right track. Fast movers most likely.
  3. Frank_Wx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    The September SOI reading came in at -1.50. That is actually the strongest negative reading since April 2016. 2015-2016 was considered a 'very strong' El Nino. I am not expecting that type of Nino intensity for this season but I'll be curious to see the October reading. The back-end of this winter could be quite interesting if El Nino decides to really take shape. It seems models are conflicted between weak to non-existent or weak to moderate.
  4. Frank_Wx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Here's a look at SSTA's for the month of September. ENSO region 1+2 appeared to have warmed up substantially. The ONI values were negative for much of August and September but as of the last update for Week 01 of October it is up to +0.7. There is a lot of volatility with SSTA's in this region because its depth is shallow compared to the other regions. I would not put a whole lot stock into the warm-up here just yet. Last 7 days we're still seeing continued warmth over 1+2 and cooling over 3.4 and 4 regions. We'll see how this plays out in the month of October with the MJO currently in phase 2-3 heading into the COD. Check out that warm pool in the GOA. Thats quite something. More -EPO/+PNA and less -NAO? Thats been the theme for the last 5 winters now.
  5. Frank_Wx

    Trip to Iceland

    Took a trip to Iceland. Quite a spectacular place. Here's some pics
  6. Frank_Wx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Piggy-backing off my posts above the models continue to show what would be a blast of fall-like temps into the area late September into early October. The -EPO/+PNA forces a trough over the east. GEFS September 29th: GEFS October 3rd The EPS are in agreement It will be interesting to see how long the trough will hold over the east. I think the period between September 28th (+/- 2 days) and October 4th (+/- 2 days) will feature below normal temps. How long it lasts remains to be seen. Most likely, this time of year, it is transient.
  7. Frank_Wx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    The GFS and ECM continue to show an MJO entering phases 8 and 1 at the end of this month into October. Both ensemble suites from these models are in fair agreement medium to long term. Week of September 24th: 00z EPS: 06z GEFS: The final week of September will run above normal. The next two weeks the PNA will be negative. Low heights over the west typically corresponds to higher heights over the east. Then as mentioned the MJO becomes active. It will take some time for the affects to show on the models and translate to our surface, but it's possible the -PNA will be replaced by a +PNA with higher heights extending into the EPO domain, or Alaska. This will help draw seasonable or cooler than normal weather into the eastern U.S. between October 3rd and 7th (+/- 2 days).
  8. Looks like EURO did well predicting where Flor will track
  9. I think Flor's intensity has been the difference maker to this point. Check out the GFS from yesterday morning. According to Tidbits she was located at about 29.35 N longitude 12z Monday. 24 hours later the GFS now has Flor located 25.68 N longitude 12z Monday. Her rapid strengthening a couple of days ago has helped her stay further south, thus avoiding the trough to her north. Instead a High Pressure builds to her north and she is forced to stay in a W-NW path. Now it's a matter of understanding how the pattern chooses to set itself up downstream. That will determine how far north Flor gets and if she decides to make direct landfall or re-curve OTS. The EURO has landfall into the Carolinas. It seems to be the most southern solution. The EURO has a strong High building over the Northeast which aids in keeping Flor to our south. The GFS meanwhile has that same High located near the Hudson Bay in Canada. WELL N&W from where the EURO has it. For the same time period by the way. These are significant differences. If the GFS is correct then Flor has a shot of reaching our longitude but could also re-curve OTS, while the EURO would keep the impacts confined well to our south with very little wiggle room for a re-curve OTS. We'll see how it all plays out. Fun times!
  10. Long
  11. He is high. They have at least 8 let alone 3.
  12. I'm moving from Cranford to Morris Plains next month Neighbors!
  13. This storm has given people so much agita but it looks like it's going to do what it intended to. Meanwhile, I've been so anxious I'm half a nutella jar deep.
  14. Woah. 5 flakes and I have 5 inches 30 minutes s&e. Extreme...
  15. Wait, you are in Mtown?