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Frank_Wx last won the day on January 13 2017

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About Frank_Wx

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    NJ Strong Weather

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  1. Here is a quick summary of yesterdays storm. I think the map turned out to be a pretty good one considering the volatility models were showing leading up to the event. Ultimately I settled on using a blend of the RGEM/NAM because I felt they handled 500mb ULL best. Don't get me wrong, these 2 models did very poorly the night before and day of the storm, but were pretty good 48+ hours out from the event. Not sure if anyone brought this up, but November finished top 10 (maybe 5) coldest on record for NYC. It really was cold. The tropical forcing coupled with +AAM at times lead to an anomalous ridge just off the WC of the U.S. The -EPO/+PNA along with a -NAO with ridging pressing down from Greenland kept temps well below normal along the EC. Its no surprise we saw our first significant snowfall of the season. Honestly I am surprised this pattern did not deliver at least one other snow event, but the western ridging is displaced a little too far west.
  2. What's happening with the MJO is fascinating. Observations and actual data show this is a very anomalous event. Check out the convection that is flaring along the western Tropical (or Equatorial) Pacific. I've coded the area in a purple box. Those are some serious storms. They have trained over those islands for days. As a reminder, here are the phases of the MJO overlaid on a map: The area within my purple box - where all the storms are - corresponds nicely to show the MJO is in phase 5. The tropical wave associated with these storms is slowly moving east into phase 6 of the MJO. That is also shown on the Hovmoller map, where the red color represents westerly zonal wind anomalies. Notice that the greatest anomalies (brown color) is between 120E and 150E. The GFS forecast actually looks kinda split. It continues to show westerly wind bursts, or areas of convection, at 120E through January 3rd which would keep the MJO in phase 5. But it also shows positive anomalies toward 160E which is phase 7 of the MJO. I am wondering if this is 1 tropical wave with "pieces" of convection breaking off and moving east, or is it a bunch of waves that are seriously disrupting the pattern. The CFS (top image) and GFS (bottom image) are alike. They both show the MJO currently in mid to high amplitude phase 5, which matches current observations I've already shown. They both then take the MJO into phase 6 by January 1st and phase 7 by January 7th. It is worth pointing out these models not only continue to propagate the MJO east, but it is in very high amplitudes of phases 6 and 7. The EURO, on the other hand, only agrees with the CFS/GFS that the MJO is currently in mid amplitude phase 5. It then takes the MJO into low amplitudes of phases 5 and 6 before dying off into the COD. This is a significant difference from what the other 2 models show. An MJO in phase 6 with an El Nino base state historically brings this type of 500mb pattern to the CONUS: And here is phase 7: I mine as well show phase 8: What's interesting is - if the CFS/GFS are correct - there will be high latitude blocking developing over the Arctic regions around January 6th/7th. We can't forget about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event already taking place. The effects of the SSWE should begin to transcend down to the Troposphere around the same time frame. In fact, changes to our pattern have already occurred. You can't use snowfall as a factor to judge a pattern change. You have to look at the leading indicators that actually drive the pattern to change. Moral of the story is this: The pattern has already changed from where it was most of December when Canada was running +10 degrees above normal. This is a very slow evolution that is going to take time and patience, of which most of you seem to not have. There will be snow chances through January 6th, but nothing looks too promising at the moment. I think for me we need to see what the MJO actually decides to do and how that corresponds with the changes happening at the Stratosphere. I'm not sure anyone has an answer right now. But if you want to believe the GFS/CFS, then look for major changes to happen by the 2nd week of January. I understand the frustration right now. We could be 6 weeks into Meteorological Winter with nothing of significance. Let's hope the positive news we're seeing with regards to the Stratosphere and maybe the MJO bring us fortune for the 2nd half of this winter.
  3. I'm not so sure. Logically (my unscientific guess), I am thinking we can't have so many anomalies in North America over an extended period of time. The atmosphere will tend to balance itself out. All these years of -EPO/-WPO has kept the NAO mainly positive. Last March we saw a -EPO/-WPO/-NAO so it's not like it can't happen. I just do not think it is a sustainable pattern year after year. If only we saw this set-up early February 2018 instead of March 2018. The winter would have gone down as the snowiest on record in some part with all those storms that came up the coast likely being in the form of snow.
  4. The potential Nor'easter next week could be a prelude for what's to come this winter. One thing you will notice from this 500mb map is the high latitude blocking is confined to the Pacific. The EPO/PNA should be in predominately negative stages as a result of incoming El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific. However, it looks like the NAO this winter will be in a predominately positive stage. No shocker here. This has been the story of our past winters for what...the last decade? Thought toward the end of last winter we did see a nice -NAO stretch but it affected our spring more than winter in my opinion. Frequent coastal storms this winter are likely but we'll need to time the southern branch well with the northern branch to get the cold air and right track. Fast movers most likely.
  5. The September SOI reading came in at -1.50. That is actually the strongest negative reading since April 2016. 2015-2016 was considered a 'very strong' El Nino. I am not expecting that type of Nino intensity for this season but I'll be curious to see the October reading. The back-end of this winter could be quite interesting if El Nino decides to really take shape. It seems models are conflicted between weak to non-existent or weak to moderate.
  6. Here's a look at SSTA's for the month of September. ENSO region 1+2 appeared to have warmed up substantially. The ONI values were negative for much of August and September but as of the last update for Week 01 of October it is up to +0.7. There is a lot of volatility with SSTA's in this region because its depth is shallow compared to the other regions. I would not put a whole lot stock into the warm-up here just yet. Last 7 days we're still seeing continued warmth over 1+2 and cooling over 3.4 and 4 regions. We'll see how this plays out in the month of October with the MJO currently in phase 2-3 heading into the COD. Check out that warm pool in the GOA. Thats quite something. More -EPO/+PNA and less -NAO? Thats been the theme for the last 5 winters now.
  7. Piggy-backing off my posts above the models continue to show what would be a blast of fall-like temps into the area late September into early October. The -EPO/+PNA forces a trough over the east. GEFS September 29th: GEFS October 3rd The EPS are in agreement It will be interesting to see how long the trough will hold over the east. I think the period between September 28th (+/- 2 days) and October 4th (+/- 2 days) will feature below normal temps. How long it lasts remains to be seen. Most likely, this time of year, it is transient.
  8. The GFS and ECM continue to show an MJO entering phases 8 and 1 at the end of this month into October. Both ensemble suites from these models are in fair agreement medium to long term. Week of September 24th: 00z EPS: 06z GEFS: The final week of September will run above normal. The next two weeks the PNA will be negative. Low heights over the west typically corresponds to higher heights over the east. Then as mentioned the MJO becomes active. It will take some time for the affects to show on the models and translate to our surface, but it's possible the -PNA will be replaced by a +PNA with higher heights extending into the EPO domain, or Alaska. This will help draw seasonable or cooler than normal weather into the eastern U.S. between October 3rd and 7th (+/- 2 days).
  9. Looks like EURO did well predicting where Flor will track
  10. I think Flor's intensity has been the difference maker to this point. Check out the GFS from yesterday morning. According to Tidbits she was located at about 29.35 N longitude 12z Monday. 24 hours later the GFS now has Flor located 25.68 N longitude 12z Monday. Her rapid strengthening a couple of days ago has helped her stay further south, thus avoiding the trough to her north. Instead a High Pressure builds to her north and she is forced to stay in a W-NW path. Now it's a matter of understanding how the pattern chooses to set itself up downstream. That will determine how far north Flor gets and if she decides to make direct landfall or re-curve OTS. The EURO has landfall into the Carolinas. It seems to be the most southern solution. The EURO has a strong High building over the Northeast which aids in keeping Flor to our south. The GFS meanwhile has that same High located near the Hudson Bay in Canada. WELL N&W from where the EURO has it. For the same time period by the way. These are significant differences. If the GFS is correct then Flor has a shot of reaching our longitude but could also re-curve OTS, while the EURO would keep the impacts confined well to our south with very little wiggle room for a re-curve OTS. We'll see how it all plays out. Fun times!
  11. Long Island...wow http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0Q-1-24#
  12. I'm moving from Cranford to Morris Plains next month Neighbors!
  13. This storm has given people so much agita but it looks like it's going to do what it intended to. Meanwhile, I've been so anxious I'm half a nutella jar deep.
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