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DualJet

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DualJet last won the day on September 23 2017

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About DualJet

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    Cary, NC through Dec 15

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  1. Not for NYC and the coast. alot has to change for us to see snow there
  2. Been away from here today, but ended up with around 5 inches in Cary, and some family in Wake Forest got near 8 inches. Been 33andrain since about 10 am.
  3. today and early this eve yes, but tonight into tomorrow morning shouldnt
  4. i live on LI, just visiting family in NC this week. I understand. Just think the writing has been on the wall for days its not a northeast storm.
  5. I am sorry for anyone who thinks this may come north at the last minute. The jet configuration just does not support that. Any shift is all noise at this point and is just on the precip fields as the models adjust to the extent of how much will eat into the ridging and confluence to the north. This is just not a northeast storm unfortunately.
  6. The 00z ECMWF is really dumping the precip with the intial surge early Sunday morning. It also is a bit slower to transition to mix in the Triangle. Wonder what NWS RAH will do. Real important now to monitor trends in the high res guidance
  7. well i thought so, but GFS still hanging some stuff around
  8. One thing that looks like a lower probability is the long duration. Think models are seeing its the main wave first and the upper trough wont be able to hang precip back into Monday as first thought
  9. it would be something since I am there, but dont think we will avoid the taint here
  10. they have been backing off... For Sunday through Tuesday...We continue to closely monitor the evolution of a southern stream storm. As mentioned above in the overview section, while there still is some uncertainty there is more of a consensus of the storm staying to our south. The continuation and even re-enforcement of cyclonic flow in eastern Canada into New England keeps an area of confluence just east of the Northeast. With this northwesterly flow being maintained, the southern stream is held to our south and the northern stream energy lags behind such that it does not phase with the southern stream. For a storm to make the turn northward, the confluence area would need to shift east with some ridging taking its place. That does not appear to be the case this time given all the energy diving southeastward across eastern Canada. As a result, shifted the low PoPs southward some however a bit more phasing could still lift this storm at least a little farther north. This would bring more precipitation into at least our far southern areas and this is where the chance PoPs are maintained.
  11. The storm is gonna happen and be on the weather maps. The finer details are the issue.
  12. GFS barely getting precip into VA now. Southern track like this means more snow in the Raleigh area
  13. I am shocked how much colder the GFS is compared to the NAM. Normally its the other way around. Is the NAM driving too much warmth north or is the GFS too cold.
  14. This is some damming signature on the NAM. A 1040 mb high in a nearly classic spot for a southeast winter storm. I am talking about the extension of the high, so its actually 1036 mb over the NE
  15. The thing I want to pay close attention to is the CAD, the placement of the high, how quickly it scoots to the east and weakens, and the track of the surface low. There will likely be some mid level warming at some point, but if the CAD holds on we could be talking about a significant snow/sleet event for the Piedmont through the Mountains. The current projected low track and intensity to me says even the coastal plain may some snow initially. Of course, Raleigh looks to be on the fine line. Def need to pay attention to the damming as it gets set up on Saturday-Saturday evening.
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