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donsutherland1

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  1. On this, be have a fundamental difference of view. My position is that allowing the far smaller quantities of PPEs to go where they have been ordered is a very modest investment in ensuring a world in which the American position and interests are far better served than the alternative case where the U.S. leads a zero-sum scramble (a 21st century adaptation of the Depression-Era "beggar-thy-neighbor" approach). Further, when one is disproportionately, if not always, reactive, waiting until the future arrives, one is unprepared and often in a weaker position than would otherwise be the case. Being a prisoner of fate is a much worse position than seeking to be a master of one's destiny. With the pandemic's having taken hold globally--something that the World Health Organization, for all its limitations, recognized as a high risk on January 23, the excuse for having fallen badly behind the curve of events from Washington has been, "...it as something that just surprised the whole world." It wasn't. Just because one was "surprised" doesn't mean that all were surprised. U.S. policy makers need to be cognizant of the world they are shaping with the choices they are making--and they are shaping the future even if they believe the future is on hold for now--that puts the nation in its strongest position, not an avoidably weak one. A world in which even reliable allies ultimately conclude that the U.S. largely abandoned them at a moment of shared crisis would look very different from one in which the U.S. made modest sacrifices to help all make it through the crisis. Reliable allies won't become enemies. They warmth and degree of willingness to help advance U.S. interests would wane. That will create opportunities for others, including but not limited to China. Consider, for example, if China expands its "Belt and Road" initiative to Europe and Europe signs on. Ultimately, such a development would lead to its own evolution of relationships. Were that to happen, the excuse might again be that it was "something that just surprised the whole world." The reality would be vastly different. It would be something that took place because of a deliberate American choice to temporarily cease being an ally when it came to waging what had been a shared struggle against the COVID-19 virus. In the end, the future is, to a large extent, made by the choices countries make. It isn't entirely a matter of random chance, even as elements of random chance (e.g., timing of a new pandemic, not its occurrence) play out. Leaders of great nations have greater latitude to influence the future. Their choices can be consequential. This is why President's from different parties, Truman in the late 1940s and Reagan in the 1980s, were able to build global support for addressing the rising Cold War challenges in the former's case and laying a foundation for ending it peacefully in the latter's. Attention to the consequences of one's choices and recognition of the future one is shaping matter. The U.S is making a deliberate and calculated choice by depriving reliable allies of small amounts of PPEs. IMO, it's a bad one. Where real leadership is needed--fully implementation of DPA with production targets, binding deadlines, and consequences for missed deadlines--it is absent. Squeezing small orders from longstanding allies is not leadership. It is extreme short-sightedness. The future consequences of more distant relations and more diversification of ties beyond the U.S., will be "no surprise."
  2. But Mr. Navarro was referring not just to those manufactured in the U.S.: Navarro said he’d experienced issues making sure 3M products manufactured around the world were “coming back here to the right places.”
  3. I don’t believe that allowing close allies such as Canada who purchased PPEs to receive them will lead to the demise of the nation. Indeed, if it would, then the structural rot is so advanced that the nation would literally be a single shock away from its collapse. As noted previously, early and effective use of the DPA would have been better. The federal government should have required GM, etc., to produce set quantities of ventilators by fixed dates with material financial consequences for missing deadlines. Since the DPA was invoked regarding GM there’s no reports (company or the media) that even one ventilator has been manufactured. The DPA should have been invoked for other firms to produce PPEs, again with quantities, deadlines, and consequences. How it is invoked matters. Had all this been done weeks ago as Governors Cuomo, DeWine, etc., wanted, there might be no need for a vicious zero sum fight for PPEs, etc.
  4. My major thinking was that choices have consequences and that one cannot sever this relationship. An overly reactive approach that deemphasizes or ignores consequences is often a bad one. I strongly suspect that the lack of thought for what a pandemic might actually mean led to an overly slow response that further aggravated the years of neglect in building and maintaining the national stockpile. The latter situation is the result of policy choices made across multiple Administrations. What if policy had been more proactive? What if different choices had been made following the “near misses” with H1N1 and Ebola? What if the emerging coronavirus pandemic were treated as a serious risk and full national mobilization were launched back in January? What if the nation had mass produced and mass tested, isolated infected persons, etc.? It’s not an extreme position to suggest that maybe the U.S. would be in a position closer to that of South Korea than Italy or Spain.
  5. My point is that there are trade offs, including some potentially bad ones, involved in a free for all. Even as the pandemic worsens, one needs to begin looking ahead to the post-pandemic world. Choices made today will shape tomorrow’s world, much as those following World War I created a situation that might have made the second one more likely than might otherwise have been the case. Policy can’t always be reactive. The disproportionate element of a reactive policy may well have contributed to a slow overall response until the pandemic had visibly exploded into view on the American shores. Policy makers might not like it, but even now an important obligation entails addressing the post-pandemic world in a fashion that does not severely weaken the American position. Of course, business as usual would put this process off and leave the nation largely as a “prisoner of fate.”
  6. As the a strong ocean storm responsible for today's overcast and occasionally rainy conditions begins to move away from the region, milder conditions will develop tomorrow. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s early next week.   Cooler air could return near April 10. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution, especially as the NAO could remain predominantly negative through mid-month. There is some ensemble support for the NAO to go positive after mid-month.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.   The SOI was -16.08 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.098.   On April 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.331 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.185.   February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.
  7. If the reports in the hyperlinked article are accurate, the U.S. will suffer further damage in its foreign relations: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/03/ppe-world-supplies-coronavirus-163955
  8. Sad, but true. This Orwellian dishonesty is disgraceful and is nothing more than an attempt to deflect from the ongoing and deepening pandemic that is claiming lives at every hour of the day. Link to the story: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/03/jared-kushner-stands-trump-proceeds-offer-very-trumpian-claim-about-stockpiles/
  9. U-shaped makes more sense to me than V-shaped. It seems that economists are also beginning to shift away from a V-shaped rebound.
  10. Limited testing in the near term. Excerpts: At Mayo, we hope to have it available as early as next week. We will be doing kind of a slow roll out because, similar to the situation with molecular tests, there's a limited supply of these tests. We're hoping that commercial manufacturers will ramp up here in the next few weeks so that we can make it available much more widely... FDA approval is not needed at this time. However, laboratories that are offering these tests have to go through a very rigorous verification process to make sure that the tests they're offering provide the right results. Clinicians will be able to order this in individuals who they think having are a result for would be helpful to either guide return to work [decisions] or further quarantining.
  11. A strong offshore storm will spread clouds into the region tonight into tomorrow. A period of steady rain and gusty winds is possible into tomorrow, especially on parts of Long Island. Showers could extend into and just west of the New York City Metro Area.   The first five days of April will see somewhat below normal to near normal temperatures with the NAO below -1.000. Today's preliminary value was -1.541. That surpasses the previous daily record of -1.356, which was set in 1975.   During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. However, the limited pool of cold air available to be tapped this year could result in a shorter-duration period of cool readings than is typically associated with such patterns.   Cooler air could return near April 10. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution, especially as the NAO could remain predominantly negative through mid-month.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.   The SOI was -10.67 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.399.   On April 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.181 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.578.   February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.
  12. I am not sure how prevalent these kind of situations are (and perhaps the end of symptoms + 1 week might not yet indicate that one has made a full recovery), but News 12 in Westchester County reported: A recovered coronavirus patient in Yonkers tested positive a second time after making a full recovery Julie Thaler was part of the initial cluster of coronavirus cases stemming from New Rochelle. She spent a week in isolation after she stopped showing symptoms, and was surprised to find she tested positive for the virus a second time.
  13. Social distancing charts from The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html
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