donsutherland1 - 33andrain Jump to content

donsutherland1

Supreme Wx Expert
  • Content Count

    435
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    26

donsutherland1 last won the day on June 23

donsutherland1 had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

1,822 Excellent

About donsutherland1

  • Rank
    Advanced Member

Personal Information

  • Location
    New York

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. The pattern is undergoing a transition that could lead to some of the young summer's warmest readings to date from the middle of this week onward across parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -18.63 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.434.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.   In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.638.   Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall.   The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September).   Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.
  2. Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Albany: 80°; Allentown: 80°; Baltimore 83°; Boston: 83°; Harrisburg: 81°; Hartford: 82°; Islip: 81°; New York City: 79°; Newark: 83°; Philadelphia: 82°; Providence: 81°; Richmond: 83°; Scranton: 78°; and, Washington, DC: 83°. Tomorrow, temperatures will likely be several degrees warmer across much of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -42.04 today. That is the lowest figure since February 19, 2019 when the SOI was -43.61.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.080.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.   In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.641.   Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall.   The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September).   Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.
  3. The sun's return this afternoon ushered in what will likely be a drier period that could last into the first week of July. In addition, more typical summerlike warmth will develop, especially next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -35.29 today. That is the lowest figure since the SOI was -38.91 on February 20, 2019.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.291. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the magnitude of the previous round blocking.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.   In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.639 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.688.   Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such a warmer and drier outcome. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies has turned cooler. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 54%.
  4. Through 9 pm, Philadelphia's 2-day rainfall total was 4.63". That was the most rainfall since 5.18" fell during the September 6-8, 2018 period. A drier pattern appears likely to develop starting tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -19.54 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.757. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.   In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 19, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.688 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.047.   Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such an outcome.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 55%.
  5. Tomorrow, a cold front will press eastward, The potential exists for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Parts of the region will likely see heavier rain than had occurred in today's more limited rounds of showers and thundershowers.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -11.88 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.864. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°.   In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.043 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.506.   Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some the extended guidance is suggesting just such an outcome.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 53%.
  6. At 8 pm, an area of rain was moving away from the greater New York City area. Additional areas of showers and thunderstorms stretched from northeast of Macon to Annapolis. Overnight, things should quiet down, but additional showers and thundershowers are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas tomorrow.   Through 8 pm, year-to-date precipitation at Allentown stood at 29.53", which surpassed the 28.76" that fell in 1941 (driest year on record). At Newark, year-to-date precipitation was 26.34", which surpassed the 26.09" that fell in 1965 (driest year on record).   At New York City, year-to-date precipitation was 25.35". Select probabilities for annual precipitation amounts included: 45" or more: 86%; 50" or more: 65%; 55" or more: 39%.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -7.41 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.492. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°.   In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 17, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.505 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.850.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City has increased to 53%.
  7. Over the past two hours, Allentown has picked up 1.00" rain. That brings Allentown's year-to-date precipitation to 28.85". As a result, 1941 remains Allentown's driest year on record. Then, 28.76" that fell during the entire year.
  8. Today, readings remained in the 70s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. However, temperatures reached the 90s in such cities as Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC.   A disturbance heading eastward will bring an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tonight through Wednesday.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -7.59 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was unavailable. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 16, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.425.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.
  9. Excessive rainfall totals were recorded over the past 24 hours in the Ohio Valley. Locations near Cincinnati picked up more than 5" rain. Over the next several days, parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be in line for above to possibly much above normal rainfall.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -3.66 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.376. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops.   Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.423 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.115.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.
  10. Yesterday saw a high temperature of 81° in New York City. Overall, the June 1-15 temperature averaged 68.6°, which was 0.7° below normal. The probability that June will finish somewhat warmer than normal has diminished, but remains plausible. A wetter than normal June remains well on course. Some photos from Pike County, Pennsylvania yesterday where rainfall totals have been much above normal recently. The photos were taken in the DingmansFalls area (DingmansFalls is the larger waterfall and SilverThreadFalls is the smaller one). Temperatures were in the upper 70s there and rain showers passed near the area during the evening.
  11. Under bright sunshine and scattered clouds, temperatures rebounded into the 70s today. Readings will likely reach or exceed 80° across much of the Middle Atlantic region and into southern New England tomorrow.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -0.28 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.841. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   On June 13, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.917 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.716.   Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Through June 14, the mean temperature in NYC is 68.4°. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.6° (0.7° below normal).   The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. This period could feature above to possibly much above normal precipitation in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There are some hints on the guidance that the end of June and start of July could feature drier conditions.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 55%.
  12. Year-to-date precipitation figures and anomalies through 8:38 pm included: Allentown: 27.69" (+9.01") Baltimore: 19.58" (+0.98") Boston: 21.33" (+1.33") Bridgeport: 22.75" (+3.05") Harrisburg: 24.01" (+6.92") Islip: 23.13" (+1.55") New York City: 24.37" (+2.50") Newark: 24.96" (+4.22") Philadelphia: 22.17" (+3.88") Providence: 26.08" (+4.18") Scranton: 20.73" (+5.12") Washington, DC: 19.79" (+2.20") New York City picked up 0.44" rain. Yesterday's 12z run of the FV3 forecast only 0.10". The implied probability of New York City's reaching 50" or more annual precipitation is 64%.
  13. Earlier today, the temperature fell to 55° in New York City. That was the coolest reading since May 25 when the temperature also fell to 55°. It was also the coolest temperature June 10 or later since June 14, 2013 when the temperature fell to 53°. Milder conditions are likely across the Middle Atlantic region for the remainder of the week and through the weekend.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was +5.62 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.077. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993.   On June 12, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.715 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the June 11-adjusted figure of 0.679.   Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.7° (0.6° below normal).   The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. Nevertheless, there remains a distinct possibility that the 90° isotherm will reach New York City at some point before June ends. In addition, this period could feature above to possibly much above normal precipitation in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 55%.
  14. Another system could bring another 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation to parts of the region tomorrow into Friday. The heaviest rain appears likely to fall in an area running from near Washington, DC northeastward across southeastern Pennsylvania into adjacent New Jersey.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was +9.14 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.179. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region.   On June 11, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.679 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 10-adjusted figure of 0.816.   Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.7° (0.6° below normal).   The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. Nevertheless, there remains a distinct possibility that the 90° isotherm will reach New York City at some point before June ends.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 60%.
  15. In the wake of the recent rainstorm, year-to-date precipitation totals and anomalies for select cities are as follows:   Allentown: 27.34" (+8.94"); Binghamton: 18.28" (+1.98"); Boston: 20.70" (+0.98"); Bridgeport: 22.41" (+2.97"); Harrisburg: 23.00" (+6.17"); Islip: 22.68" (+1.42"); New York City: 23.93" (+2.38"); Newark: 24.45" (+3.98"); Philadelphia: 20.72" (+2.65"); Portland: 23.55" (+2.82"); Providence: 25.29" (3.66"); and, Scranton: 20.19" (+4.86").   Another system could bring another 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation to parts of the region Thursday into Friday. Unlike with the recent system, there is a increased prospect that some locations could pick up 2.00" or more of precipitation.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.   The SOI was +19.61 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.090. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.   With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region.   On June 10, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.817 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the June 9-adjusted figure of 0.797.   Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 69.1° (0.2° below normal).   The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely.   The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 60%.   Finally, with today's 98° maximum temperature, San Francisco smashed the old daily record of 88°, which was set in 1985. Yesterday, San Francisco had a 100° high. Until now, San Francisco had never had a 100° temperature prior to September 1. The June 1-11 period has had a mean temperature of 67.3°. The previous warmest first 11 days of the month occurred in 1960 with a mean temperature of 65.5°.  
×
×
  • Create New...