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About donsutherland1

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  2. donsutherland1

    March 14th -15th Evolution: The Final Chapter

    My guesses based on all of the guidance through the 12z ECMWF. It still appears that a pretty special March snowstorm remains on track for much of the New York Metropolitan Area. Some benchmarks for reference: Last NYC March snowfall of 10” or more: March 13-14, 1993: 10.6” Last NYC March snowfall of 12” or more: March 3-4, 1960: 14.5” Last NYC March snowfall of 18” or more: March 7-8, 1941: 18.1” Even considering the warmer guidance, I believe this storm will produce more than 10” at Central Park. My thinking right now is as follows: Suffolk County: 6”-12” Nassau County: 8”-14” Fairfield County, Hudson County, New York City (5 boroughs), Southern Westchester County: 10”-16” Bergen, Essex, and Northern Westchester Counties: 14”-20” Dutchess, Orange, Rockland, and Warren Counties: 18”-27” (localized amounts approaching 30”) Select Cities: Bridgeport: 13” (Minimum amount: 8”) Islip: 10” (Minimum amount: 4”) Monticello: 22” (Minimum amount: 16”) New York City (NYC): 14” (Minimum amount: 8”) Newark: 15” (Minimum amount: 8”) Poughkeepsie: 20” (Minimum amount: 15”) White Plains: 16” (Minimum amount: 12”) Note: Minimum amounts are figures I believe have a <20% chance of occurrence.
  3. donsutherland1

    March 14th -15th Evolution: The Final Chapter

    The nearly identical track between the 0z and 6z RGEM and the small preponderance of individual EPS members to the east of the mean may suggest that the guidance has come about as far west as it's going to get. The 12z runs should provide a measure of confirmation as to whether that's the case.
  4. donsutherland1

    March 14, 2017: The Evolution

    The pattern still seems to be more similar to that of March 18-19, 1956 and January 26-27, 2015, mainly that the trough is comfortably farther west than in the 2015 case. Right now, I have greater confidence in the 0z ECMWF, 0z UKMET, and 0z EPS. For purposes of reference, here’s a list of New York City’s 12" or greater snowstorms in March (1800-2016):   March 14-15, 1834: 12"-15" March 16-17, 1843: 18" (nearly 2 feet in parts of the City) March 16-17, 1867: 12" March 20-22, 1868: More than 12" March 12-14, 1888: 21.0" (parts of the City received nearly 30") March 15-16, 1896: 12.0" (also a 10.0" snowfall on March 2) March 1-2, 1914: 14.5" March 7-8, 1941: 18.1" March 3-4, 1960: 14.5"
  5. donsutherland1

    March 14, 2017: The Evolution

    Thanks. I will post some today. I was becoming familiar with the Board's layout.