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donsutherland1

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  1. A strong storm will likely bring 1.00" or more rain across parts of the Gulf Region tomorrow into Saturday. The heaviest amounts could be focused on northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and parts of North Carolina. That region could also see severe thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall figures of 2.00" or more are likely along the Appalachians. Afterward, a general 0.50"-1.50" rain is likely in the New York City area.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -11.03 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.700.   The closing 7-10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 59.1° for that period this year. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 88%.   On April 16, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.666 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 15-adjusted figure of 0.540. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 34 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.   Within the next 4 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.
  2. A strong storm will likely bring 1.00" or more rain across parts of the Gulf Region Thursday into Saturday. The heaviest amounts could be focused on northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and parts of North Carolina. That region could also see severe thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall figures of 2.00" or more are likely along the Appalachians. Afterward, a general 0.50"-1.00" rain is likely in the New York City area.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -7.14 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.655.   Over the next 3-4 days, variable temperatures can be expected. Several days of generally cooler than normal readings are possible, along with several warmer days. The closing 7-10 days of the month could be warmer than normal with perhaps a turn toward normal as the month comes to a close. There remains uncertainty concerning the risk of a possible turn to near normal readings near the end of the month.   Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 58.2° for that period this year. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 82%.   On April 15, the MJO moved into Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.553 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 14-adjusted figure of 0.444. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 33 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.   Within 1-5 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.
  3. The final snowfall in Chicago on Sunday was 5.4". That tied the record set on April 16, 1961 for the greatest daily snowfall after April 10.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -4.04 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.066.   Over the next 4-5 days, variable temperatures can be expected. Several days of generally cooler than normal readings are possible, along with several warmer days. The closing 7-10 days of the month could be warmer than normal with perhaps a turn toward normal as the month comes to a close. There remains uncertainty concerning the risk of a possible turn to near normal readings near the end of the month.   Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 57.6° for that period this year. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 78%.   On April 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.444 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 13-adjusted figure of 0.377. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 32 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.   Within 2-6 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2.
  4. Through 4 pm, Chicago had picked up 4.8" snow. That set a new daily record snowfall amount for April 14. The previous record was 2.2", which was set back in 1980. This was only Chicago's second daily snowfall of 4" or above after April 10. The only other such daily snowfall occurred on April 16, 1961 when 5.4" accumulated (6.7" was the storm total from April 15-17, 1961). To date, Chicago has received 46.4" snow for the 2018-19 snowfall season, which ranks the current season as Chicago's 34th snowiest on record.   Tonight into tomorrow morning, a cold front associated with the storm responsible for Chicago's snowfall will bring periods of rain and thunderstorms. That system will likely bring a general 0.25"-0.75" rain to the New York City area with some locally higher amounts (especially to the north and west of New York City and Newark). The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is somewhat elevated across southeastern New York State and more so south and westward.   Across central and Upstate New York, a widespread 1.00"-2.00" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. As a result, flooding is possible in parts of that area, especially Upstate where above normal seasonal snowfall has occurred.   As the storm pulls away, the clouds will break. However, the wind could gust past 40 mph.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.02°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -15.14 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.488. That ends the stretch of 10 consecutive days during which the AO was negative.   Over the next 5-6 days, variable temperatures can be expected. Several days of generally cooler than normal readings are possible, along with several warmer days. The closing 7-10 days of the month could be warmer than normal with perhaps a turn toward normal as the month comes to a close. There remains uncertainty concerning the risk of a possible turn to near normal readings near the end of the month.   Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 58.0° for that period this year. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April has increased to 78%.   At this point in time, the EPS hints at a cooler than normal May. However, the CFSv2 favors warm anomalies in the region. Model skill from this point in time is generally poor, but current ENSO conditions suggest warm anomalies may be somewhat more likely than not.   On April 13, the MJO moved into Phase 1 after having spent 3 days at Phase 2. The MJO's amplitude was 0.375 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 12-adjusted figure of 0.162. Within 3-7 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2.
  5. In the wake of last night's and this morning's rainfall, a brief period of dry weather lies ahead. Under bright afternoon sunshine, readings climbed well into the 70s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 74°; Allentown: 77°; Baltimore: 77°; Boston: 75°; Burlington: 72°; Concord: 75°; Harrisburg: 77°; Hartford: 77°; Islip: 66°; New York City: 77°; Newark: 78°; Philadelphia: 76°; Portland: 73°; Providence: 70°; Scranton: 72°; and, Washington, DC: 77°.   However, by late tomorrow and tomorrow night, another storm will be moving into the region. That system will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.00" rain to the New York City area with some locally higher amounts (especially to the north and west of New York City and Newark). Across central and Upstate New York, a widespread 1.00"-2.00" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. As a result, flooding is possible in parts of that area, especially Upstate where above normal seasonal snowfall has occurred. However, both the 12z ECMWF and 18z NAM suggested much less precipitation, especially in the vicinity of New York City.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.02°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was -23.80 on April 12. No figure was posted for today due to technical difficulties. The possibility exists for a continued interruption in SOI figures for coming days.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.017.   Looking back, the April 1-10 mean temperature was 50.8°. That was close to the figure that had been suggested based on historical experience following the development of a negative AO in during the first 10 days of April after a strongly positive AO near the end of March. The mean temperature for those prior cases was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°).   Over the next week, variable temperatures can be expected. Several days of generally cooler than normal readings are possible, along with several warmer days. The closing 7-10 days of the month could be warmer than normal with perhaps a turn toward normal as the month comes to a close.   Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 57.2° for that period this year. Overall, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April has increased to 72%.   On April 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.161 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly below the April 11-adjusted figure of 0.202. Within 4-8 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above in Phase 2.   Finally, based on the guidance coupled with the historical data, it now appears that Atlanta will complete its first snowless winter on record. The old record least snowfall had been a trace of snow, which occurred in 24 winters since 1928-29. This will be the last mention of Atlanta's seasonal snowfall for winter 2018-19.
  6. 76° and mostly sunny at 3 pm. 2 photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:
  7. Yesterday, Caribou picked up 4.2" snow. That brought Caribou's seasonal snowfall to 162.7", making winter 2018-19 Caribou's 3rd snowiest winter on record.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.02°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was +17.01 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.159.   As previously noted, since 1950 there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal.   Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 56.5° for that period this year.   Beyond April 10, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings are possible. However, the closing 7-10 days of the month could wind up warmer than normal. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April has increased to 63%.   On April 8, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.063 (RMM). The amplitude was below the April 7-adjusted figure of 0.122. That was the lowest amplitude since the MJO had an amplitude of 0.045 on March 31, 2017. For now, the MJO is essentially irrelevant. However, within 10-14 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above in Phase 2. There remains considerable uncertainty whether the MJO would then progress to Phase 3 or continue to regress toward Phase 1. During the April 20-30 period, Phase 1 was approximately 1.2° warmer than Phase 3.
  8. Today, the temperature soared to 78° in Central Park. That was New York City's warmest temperature since October 10, 2018 when the thermometer hit 80°.   Meanwhile, late this afternoon snow moved into Caribou. The snowstorm will likely deliver 4"-8" snow there. The temperature there was 25° as of 9 pm.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was +24.37 today. That is the highest figure since the SOI was +27.20 on October 14, 2018.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.497.   As previously noted, since 1950 there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal.   Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 56.2° for that period this year.   Beyond April 10, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings are possible. However, the closing 7-10 days of the month could wind up warmer than normal. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April remains approximately 60%.   On April 7, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.126 (RMM). The amplitude was below the April 6-adjusted figure of 0.311. That was the lowest amplitude since the MJO had an amplitude of 0.095 on September 21, 2018.
  9. Tomorrow and Tuesday will likely see much above normal readings across the northern Middle Atlantic region despite some rain to start the work week. A backdoor cold front could trim the readings on Long Island, coastal Connecticut, and perhaps even New York City. Areas just to the west of New York City in New Jersey could see high temperatures reach the lower or middle 70s both tomorrow and Tuesday. Some temperatures around 80° are possible farther south, especially in parts of Virginia, Maryland, and perhaps even southeastern Pennsylvania.   However, despite this unseasonable warmth, an area extending across northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine could still experience accumulating snow. Caribou will likely pick up 4"-8" snow tomorrow into Tuesday, making winter 2018-19 that city's 3rd snowiest winter on record.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was +11.53 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.511. That preliminary reading is the lowest April AO value since April 27, 2016 when the AO was -3.291. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 56.2° for that period this year.   Also, since 1950 there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal. The latest guidance suggests a range from 51.0° to 52.8°.   Beyond that, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings are possible. However, the closing 7-10 days of the month could wind up warmer than normal. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April is approximately 60%.   On April 6, the MJO moved back into Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.309 (RMM). The amplitude was a little higher than the April 5-adjusted figure of 0.256. Over the past 5 days, the MJO has been drifting between Phases 7 and 8 at a low amplitude.   Based on historical climatology, observed ongoing warming, and the latest ensemble guidance, it is very likely that the 32° temperature on March 18 will wind up becoming New York City's (Central Park) last freeze of the season. Given the latest data, this will be the last mention of New York City's final freeze of the winter 2018-19 season.   Atlanta remains on track to receive no snowfall for the first time on record. Such an outcome is now very likely. The existing record is a trace of snow, which occurred during 24 winters. Snowfall records go back to winter 1928-29.
  10. On the contrary, I wish the FV3, in its current form, were a great model. I would very much have enjoyed all the snow it has forecast this winter and spring.
  11. TT treats all frozen precipitation alike leading to excessive amounts. FV3 implementation was delayed due to both a cold bias and excessive snowfall amounts. Its issues highlight the limitations of relying strictly on 500 mb verification scores, where it does better than the GFS. Its lower atmospheric problems more than offset its 500 mb edge. Hopefully, the issues responsible will be resolved later this year.
  12. The TT maps amplify the FV3’s issues. The southern extent of the snowfall is north of what is shown on the TT maps.
  13. The storm that brought light rain to much of the region, sleet pellets around New York City and snow in some parts of New York State and across portions of New England has departed. In response to the return of sunshine, temperatures soared well into the 60s across the New York City region.   Yesterday's snowfall amounts included: Albany: 2.1" (old daily record: 1.1", 1914); Binghamton: 0.4"; and, Burlington: 0.8.   Several warmer than normal to possibly much warmer than normal days now lie ahead.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.   The SOI was +13.84 today.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.184.   Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal.   Beyond that, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings is possible. However, the closing week of the month could wind up warmer than normal.   On April 5, the MJO moved was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.256 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the April 4-adjusted figure of 0.262.   Based on historical climatology, observed ongoing warming, and the latest ensemble guidance, it is very likely that the 32° temperature on March 18 will wind up becoming New York City's (Central Park) last freeze of the season.   Atlanta remains on track to receive no snowfall for the first time on record. Such an outcome is now very likely. The existing record is a trace of snow, which occurred during 24 winters. Snowfall records go back to winter 1928-29.
  14. In the wake of yesterday’s sleet and cold rain, today saw the sun return and temperatures soar to 67° in New York City. Some scenes from the New York Botanical Garden are below:
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