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donsutherland1

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  1. This morning featured temperatures in the 60s in the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas and 50s outside the cities. Select low temperatures included:   Allentown: 56° (lowest since 8/11: 56°) Bridgeport: 61° (lowest since 8/11: 61°) Islip: 62° (lowest since 8/12: 60°) New York City: 64° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Newark: 63° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Philadelphia: 62° (lowest since 6/23: 61°) Poughkeepsie: 52° (lowest since 8/11: 51°) Washington, DC: 64° (lowest since 6/23: 63°)   Even cooler readings are possible over the next several days. Some of the guidance suggests that the temperature could fall below 60° in Central Park on Monday morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. A reading of 60°-61° is far more likely, as the implied probability of a temperature below 60° in Central Park is approximately 25%. The current cool spell will likely last into early next week.   In western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.   Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures has commenced in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week.   Daily record high temperatures included: Agen, France: 95°; Caen, France: 90°; Cherbourg, France: 82°; Edinburgh, UK: 75°; Elista, Russia: 99°; Guernsey, UK: 82°; Jersey, UK: 86°; La Roche-Sur-Yon, France: 91°; Landivislau, France: 82°; and, Nantes, France: 93°.   Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.   In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 71%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was -7.10 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.094. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values.   The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.   The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature.   There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.   On August 23, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.237 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.123.   Finally, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August.
  2. Cooler weather has now overspread the region. This cooler weather will likely last into early next week.   In western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.   Across the Atlantic Ocean, this weekend will see the start of an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures in Europe. Record temperatures will likely be challenged and broken in many locations. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week.   Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.   In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 70%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was 4.19 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.526. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values.   The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.   The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature.   On August 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.123 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.106.   Finally, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. The implied probabilities for New York City's receiving 50.00" or more precipitation this year are 70% (historical 1869-2018 period) and 80% (1971-2018 period). The least precipitation from August 24-December 31 occurred in 1931 when just 7.65" was recorded. The most was 32.57" in 1983.
  3. Earlier today, Islip set a daily record high temperature of 91° (old record: 89°, 1976 and 2005); Boston tied its daily record high temperature of 93°, which was set in 1955 and tied in 2003; and, New York City-LGA tied its daily record of 93°, which was set in 2003.   After some overnight showers and possibly a thunderstorm, several cooler than normal days lie ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions from tomorrow into early next week.   With the arrival of cooler air imminent, the following are 90° days to date for select cities:   Allentown: 20 Baltimore: 48 Boston: 14 Charleston, SC: 61 Harrisburg: 29 Hartford: 26 Islip: 8 New York City-JFK: 6 New York City-LGA: 23 New York City-NYC: 14 Newark: 23 Norfolk: 45 Philadelphia: 31 Providence:12 Raleigh: 59 Richmond: 54 Savannah: 83 Sterling: 45 Washington, DC: 51   Across western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.   Anchorage is poised to experience its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.5°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. The probability of a record warm August has increased. There is an implied 63% probability that 2019 could set a new August record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm) in Anchorage.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was 3.16 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.916. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values.   The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.   The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature.   On August 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.114 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.102.   Finally, New York City has an implied 67% probability of having a warmer than normal August.
  4. At 2 pm, Islip had a temperature of 91°. That broke the daily record of 89°, which was set in 1976 and tied in 2005.
  5. At 1 pm, Islip had a temperature of 89°. That tied the daily record set in 1976 and tied in 2005.
  6. Parts of the region experienced thunderstorms this evening. With the 0.26" rain that was recorded in Newark, that city's year-to-date precipitation now stands at 40.31" (9.94" above normal). Following tomorrow, several cooler than normal days lie ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.   Across North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.   Anchorage is poised to experience its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.5°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also an implied 56% probability that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records in Anchorage.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was -10.74 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.409. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values.   The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.   The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. That kind of evolution was shown on the August 19 EPS weeklies. The latest CFSv2 weekly figures are particularly aggressive with warming during the latter part of the second half of the September 1-15 period.   On August 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.101 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.201.   Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 65% probability of having a warmer than normal August.
  7. There is growing model support for the possible development of much above normal warmth in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.   The implied probability that Anchorage will record its warmest summer on record is near 100%. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.4°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also an implied 53% probability that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.   Anchorage has had 5 previous summers with mean temperatures of 60.0° or above. Four (80%) occurred 2000 or later and 3 (60%) occurred 2010 or later. Those summers were:   1977: 60.2° 2004: 60.2° 2013: 60.1° 2015: 60.2° 2016: 60.8°   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was -13.90 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.300. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.   Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. The latest guidance is in line with August's anomaly falling within that range.   However, some uncertainty has increased concerning the start of September. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. That kind of evolution was shown on the August 19 EPS weeklies.   On August 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.120.   Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.
  8. Parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas experienced record warmth today. Highlights included: Baltimore: 99° (old record: 97°, 1914); Boston: 95° (old record: 92°, 1906, 1966, and 1983); Norfolk: 96° (tied record set in 1912 and tied in 1954); Richmond: 99° (old record: 98°, 1914 and 2002); Sterling, VA: 95° (tied record set in 2002); and, Washington, DC: 98° (tied record set in 2002).   Anchorage, which came off its warmest month on record, remains on track to record its warmest summer on record. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.0°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also a chance that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was +10.86 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was --1.006. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.   Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.   On August 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.128 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.751.   Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. In terms of receiving 50" or more precipitation, New York City's implied probabilities are 65% (1869-2018 historical period) and 77% (1971-2018 period).
  9. Today saw New York City reach 90°. As a result, August now has a positive monthly anomaly near 0.4°. Overall, August remains on course to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.   Anchorage, which came off its warmest month on record, remains on track to record its warmest summer on record. There is also a chance that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was +7.46 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.676. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.   Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.   On August 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.754 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.348.   Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.
  10. As I continue to travel overseas, this is a short extension and update to my discussion just before the start of August. So far, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas are off to a warmer than normal start to August. One constant that has simplified things over the past two months is persistent blocking. Blocking will like persist in general through the next two to three weeks. At the same time, the ENSO evolution has continued toward neutral-warm conditions in Region 3.4. Nevertheless, there has been a significant change. Today, the SOI reached +22.94. During the most recent 10-year period, three years saw the SOI rise to +20.00 or above in August: 2008, 2010, and 2017. All three saw one or more 90-degree readings in September (two during the first week). Two (2010 and 2017) saw September wind up with a mean temperature of 70.0 degrees or above in New York City. As I visit the Great Wall of China in coming days, I will be thinking of something else that has seemingly survived the test of time: the ongoing blocking. Nevertheless, nothing is permanent if one extends the time horizon to sufficient length. Perhaps the big reversal in the SOI may be a precursor for a larger set of circumstances that could fray the blocking toward month’s end and then give rise to a nascent positive AO/NAO regime just in time to negate the impact of gradually lengthening wave lengths. That development would further reinforce the idea of a warm September consistent with the 1993 base case. For now, a period of near normal to somewhat cooler than normal temperatures is imminent. After mid-month warmth should begin to return. The potential for much warmer than normal temperatures during the last week of August and first week of September exists.
  11. The thunderstorm brought 0.92” rain to Central Park in about an hour.
  12. This should be the long-anticipated cooler (but not cold) period relative to normal before the warmth returns. I have little reason to depart from my thinking of a warmer than normal August (probably 1-1.5 degrees above normal) with the warmest anomalies relative to normal occurring during the second half of the month.
  13. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England region concluded a very warm July. In New York City, the mean temperature was 79.5°, which was 3.0° above normal. That was tied with 1983 as New York City's 11th warmest July on record. The last time July was warmer was in 2013 when July had a monthly average temperature of 79.8°.   Such warmth has typically been followed by a warmer than normal August. Since 1869, New York City had 20 prior cases with a July mean temperature of 79.0° or above. The August mean temperature for those cases was 76.4° with a standard deviation of 2.2°. However, in the 11 cases in which the July average temperature was 79.5° or above, the August mean temperature was also 76.4°, but the standard deviation was just 1.2°. July 2019 falls into the latter warmer category. This data suggests that simply based on historical outcomes, August 2019 will very likely be warmer than normal in the region. Those historical outcomes are supported by teleconnections data and by at least some of the longer-range guidance.   The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland for another day or two. Near-record to possibly record surface mass balance (SMB) loss could occur during that period. Already, rapid losses in SMB have been occurring.   Professor Jason Box, ice climatologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland observed, "On the Arctic Circle, southwestern Greenland ice sheet, 2019 melt to-date is 1.3x that of the previous record melt at that location in 2010. 1.4x that in 2012."   High temperatures in Greenland included Ilulissat: 66°; Kangerlussuaq: 72°; Kulusuk: 59°; Narsarsuaq: 66°; Nuuk: 50°; and, Thule: 54°.   Anchorage has concluded its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. The July 2019 mean temperature was 65.1°. That easily surpassed the old record of 62.7°, which was recorded in July 2016.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.   The SOI was +3.14 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.647. A general tendency for blocking could persist through mid-August with perhaps some occasional fluctuations to positive values. This persistence of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.   Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.   In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.   Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August.   On July 30, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.600.   August will likely be warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The CFSv2, which understated the degree of warmth in July, suggests near normal conditions in August. However, based on the preponderance of date, it is likely an outlier. The potential exists for some cooler than normal to near normal readings from the middle of the first week of August into the latter portion of the second week of August. However, no notably cold readings appear likely. Afterward, warmer anomalies should return. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Those warm anomalies will likely persist into at least the start of September.   Finally, On July 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.998 million square kilometers (JAXA). That broke the daily minimum record of 6.132 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. It is also the earliest figure under 6.000 million square kilometers. The previous earliest figure occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers. Based on the average statistical decline and on sensitivity analysis, it is likely that Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 4.000 million square kilometers at its minimum for only the second time on record.   Some probabilities from the sensitivity analysis:   4.500 million square kilometers or below: 84% 4.000 million square kilometers or below: 63% 3.500 million square kilometers or below: 36%
  14. On July 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.998 million square kilometers (JAXA). That broke the daily minimum record of 6.132 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. It is also the earliest figure under 6.000 million square kilometers. The previous earliest figure occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers.
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