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donsutherland1

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  1. Much of the region experienced bright sunshine and readings in the 70s today. The heaviest precipitation in several months appears likely for parts of the region Wednesday into Thursday. For New York City, 84% of the EPS members show 1.00" or more precipitation; 71% show 1.50" or more precipitation; and, 41% show 2.00" or more. Therefore, a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall now appears likely. Some areas, especially on Long Island, will likely see even higher amounts.   The last time New York City received 1.00" or more rain in a day was August 22 when 1.01" fell. The last time New York City picked up 1.50" rain in a day was July 22 when 1.66" fell. The last time New York City received 2.00" or more rain in a day was August 11, 2018 when 2.90" fell.   Following the storm, cooler weather will give way to another round of warmer than normal temperatures.   The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions could linger into the first days of November, but overall the cool shot will likely be transient in nature, not the start of a long-duration cold pattern.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.   The SOI was -5.74 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.654.   Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.   In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.   On October 13, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.334 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.225.   In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently 59.2°.   Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 74%.   Finally, on account of very slow ice growth, Arctic sea ice extent for October 13 was a daily record low figure of 4.881 million square kilometers. There is a chance that today's figure will be the latest ever figure under 5 million square kilometers.
  2. Under crystal clear skies and brilliant sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower 70s today. Even as the calendar has advanced deeper into autumn, the day had almost a late September feel to it. The Monarch migration remained well underway.
  3. Today’s temperature at Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) rose to 36 degrees following a brief cold shot with a low of 15 degrees. That surpassed the daily record high of 34 degrees, which was set in 1998.
  4. Arctic sea ice extent has now fallen below the 2012 figure... On account of abnormally slow sea ice growth, Arctic sea ice extent on October 13, 2019 had slipped below the 2012 amount. In 2019, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.881 million square kilometers on JAXA. In 2012, it was 4.912 million square kilometers.
  5. More than 30 of the 51 EPS members now support 1" or more rain for the NYC area for the upcoming storm.
  6. Unseasonably mild weather will prevail into midweek. Afterward, a short period of cooler weather will be followed by another warmer pattern for the southern New England areas. This cooler weather will likely coincide with a mid-week system that could bring much of the region 0.50"-1.50" rain with locally higher amounts. The last time New York City received 1.00" or more rain in a day was August 22 when 1.01" fell. The last time New York City picked up 1.50" rain in a day was July 22 when 1.66" fell. After August 22, New York City has picked up just 2.26" rain in total.   The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool shot will likely be transient in nature.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.   Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.   The SOI was +8.12 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.957.   Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.   In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.   On October 12, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.226 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.143.   In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.   The first week of November and possibly beyond could be warmer than normal overall.   Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 78%.
  7. The issue isn't that Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is warm. The issue concerns historic warmth. There has been both an increase in temperatures and substantial increase in the number of days with temperatures staying above freezing since 2007 when Arctic sea ice extent fell below 5 million square kilometers for the first time. Low summer sea ice and ensuing Arctic amplification are driving the warmth. 9 of Utquiagvik's 10 warmest years have occurred 2007 or after (1998 is the lone exception). Once this year concludes, 10 of the last 11 warmest years will have occurred 2007 or later.
  8. Additional data for Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow): In terms of record-tying or breaking daily high temperatures, the following are the number of records by timeframe for the January-September period: 2000 or later: 91 days (100 days through October 12) 2010 or later: 57 days (65 days through October 12) 2015 or later: 46 days (52 days through October 12) 2019: 18 days (20 days through October 12) In terms of record high minimum temperatures, the figures are as follows: 2000 or later: 113 days (123 days through October 12) 2010 or later: 86 days (95 days through October 12) 2015 or later: 64 days (69 days through October 12) 2019: 29 days (31 days through October 12) The last record low maximum temperature (January 1-December 31) occurred in 2011. The last record low minimum temperature occurred in 2007. Daily records go back to 1920.
  9. You are correct. What is taking place in Alaska (especially northern Alaska) and the Arctic region is extraordinary. The January-September mean temperature for Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) was 23.0° this year. That's well above the prior January-September record of 20.4°, which was set in 2016. The four warmest January-September periods are: 1. 23.0°, 2019 2. 20.4°, 2016 3. 19.6°, 2018 4. 19.1°, 2017 The 30-year moving average is now 16.2°, which is the highest on record. The 10-year moving average is 18.3° (also the highest on record). Since the "low Arctic ice era" commenced with the first sub-5 million square kilometer extent in 2007, the January-September period has had an average temperature of 17.7°. To put things into perspective, the January-September period had been 17.0° or warmer on just 3 of 85 years prior to 2007. The last six years have had 17.0° or above January-September mean temperatures. Finally, the 12-month moving average statewide temperature for Alaska exceeded 32° for the first time on record this year.
  10. Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Columbus Day. Afterward, a short period of cooler weather will be followed by another warmer pattern for the southern New England areas. This cooler weather will likely coincide with a mid-week system that could bring much of the region 0.50"-1.00" rain with locally higher amounts. The last week of October will likely be mild, but a cool shot could occur at some point. The GFS remains most aggressive. The cool shot will likely be transient.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.   Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.   The SOI was +4.45 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.305.   Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.   On October 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.144 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.277.   In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.   In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.   Based on the latest extended guidance, the first week of November and possibly beyond could be warmer than normal overall.   Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 74%.
  11. Clouds parted and it was a partly to mostly sunny afternoon at the New YorkBotanical Garden. Temperatures rose into the middle 60s. Four photos:
  12. That's very similar to the week 3-4 forecasts from the CFSv2. Unfortunately, the CFSv2 goes warm after week 4.
  13. Yesterday, 7.1" snow fell in Bismarck. That easily surpassed the previous daily record for October 10 of 2.3" from 1959. Today, an additional 6.1" fell, surpassing the daily record of 1.6" from 1909. The 13.2" total is the earliest snowfall of at least a foot on record for Bismarck. The previous record was October 28-29, 1991 when 15.9" snow fell. In addition, 5 of the 6 12" or greater snowstorms (including the current storm) that occurred on or before November 30 took place after 1980.   Record low temperatures were also set in parts of the West. Records included: Colorado Springs: 9° (old record: 14°, 1946); Denver: 9° (old record: 22°, 1946); Laramie, WY: 3° (old record: 9°, 1977); and, Pocatello, ID: 14° (old record: 19°, 2003).   After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then, following perhaps a transient shot of cold, could still lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild.   The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.   Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.   The SOI was -4.32 today.   Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.535.   Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.   On October 10, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.200.   In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.   Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 70%.  
  14. With its record high minimum temperature of 34°, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) registered its 98th day with above freezing temperatures. That further extended this year's record. The previous record was 93 days in 1998.
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