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ru848789

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ru848789 last won the day on October 17

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About ru848789

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  1. Actually not true. What people probably don't realize is that the cases/day back in March/April were likely 2-3X greater than reported, since our positivity rates were 30-40% due to not having nearly enough testing. That means the US peak was likely something around 75K cases/day back then (and even the 75K number is likely only 20-30% of the number of total infections, based on antibody testing of populations), which isn't much different from the peak in the wave 2 peak in July and it's also likely that we also had a much younger profile back then, too, but since only symptomatic people wer
  2. A bit of good news, as AstraZeneca and J&J announced today that they would resume their US phase 3 vaccine clinical trials for Covid-19. AZ's trial was put on hold soon after it began in early September, following news of a UK participant who developed a transverse myelitis (spinal cord inflammation) after receiving the vaccine, while J&J's trial was paused on Oct. 12 after an unspecified injury in one of its study participants. We certainly need as many options as we can get, since none of the vaccines is guaranteed to be effective, plus getting vaccines to as many people as possible,
  3. Here's another angle on some more thorny issues/questions that are on our doorstep with vaccines, in another great blog post from Derek Lowe, this time on the challenges ahead of us as vaccine data start to roll out. As @PB GFIand @Mophstymeowere just saying, no, this is not easy stuff, unfortunately. So many questions, including: Will the first company (Pfizer?) to be granted an EUA (emergency use authorization allowing vaccine use before the phase III trial has been completed) be held to completing the trial? Should those who got the placebo be informed and allowed to g
  4. No problem with any of your posts on this and often videos are easier to digest with regard to scientific topics (especially logistics; I often post videos/graphics for those reasons, as papers can be too dense); my only minor issue was correcting the temps, as I guess I'm exacting on that stuff (honestly, the actual numbers don't "matter" for the argument of cryo/standard freezer conditions, per se).
  5. If anyone really wants to know why the mRNA-based vaccines require cryogenic (Pfizer) or freezer (Moderna) storage, this paper is worth a read. Basically, mRNA is a large, very unstable molecule if not kept very cold. In addition, the mRNA vaccine is encapsulated in a lipid nanoparticle formulation in order for the mRNA to be able to be delivered to the appropriate organs and tissues from the bloodstream before the mRNA is destroyed in the bloodstream (at room temp, the naked mRNA vaccine does not last long). For these reasons, there has never been a commercially successful mRNA vaccine bef
  6. Yes, the cold chain issues with the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer needing -70C and Moderna needing -20C and most others needing at least refrigeration) have been covered before extensively in the thread, but no big deal - it's hard to keep up with 100+ pages! Also not sure where you got your temps: -70C is -94F, which means dry ice needing to be replenished every day or so in the primary package and requires a complex distribution network from primary centers to administration points, and -20C is -4 F, which is a typical freezer temp, which is doable most places. I linked the article bel
  7. UK to conduct "human challenge trials" in which a subset of young, healthy people are deliberately exposed to SARS-CoV-2 before vaccination to evaluate dose/response relationships, followed by larger clinical trials where young, healthy volunteers are vaccinated with various vaccines and then exposed to controlled amounts of the virus. I had been hoping we would do these months ago to get an early read on vaccine effectiveness and am puzzled why they're doing these now, when we're not far away from having final phase III vaccine trial results for multiple vaccines. My guess i
  8. I've shown death rates relative to hospitalization rates were down by 1/2 to 2/3 dozens of times in my reports this July/August analyzing the 2nd wave - I even predicted they'd be lower before that, based on improved medical procedures/pharmaceutical treatments. But nobody's interviewing me, lol.
  9. I feel like a broken record, but because most of Europe and the US didn't take advantage of the slowdown in cases/deaths after the first wave in March/April to implement robust testing/tracing/isolating and require masking everywhere, much of Europe is seeing a 2nd wave that could be as bad as the first wave, just like the US saw a 2nd wave in June/July in states not hard hit in the first wave - and we're now seeing what looks to be a third wave as we enter the colder months with more people indoors and still nowhere near full compliance to masking/distancing.
  10. File under better late than never, as the CDC has finally issued a "strong recommendation" that all travelers on public transportation wear masks and those who don't be asked to disembark. As one might expect this recommendation was welcomed by the travel industry, as confidence in passenger safety is critical to the travel business. 𝗔 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝘀𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗹-𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗗𝗖'𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲. "𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘂𝗻𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗼
  11. Good find. It reminded me of some other papers I had seen/posted about with regard to what's really going on with seriously ill COVID patients and today I came across an interesting literature review paper in Lancet - Respiratory Medicine, from some Mass General researchers analyzing cytokines and other biomarkers of inflammation, showing that seriously ill COVID-19 patients had moderately elevated interleukin-6 (a cytokine protein involved in immune system signaling) levels, but much lower than patients with other conditions such as cytokine release syndrome, sepsis, and acute respiratory dis
  12. Does anyone still doubt that the Sturgis motorcycle rally was the biggest single superspreader event in the US if not the world? Because the attendees were generally COVID skeptics and haven't cooperated much with tracing efforts (which were also weak efforts to begin with in the largely very red states surrounding South Dakota), we'll likely never know the true extent of infection spread that went on. Excellent article on this in the Post, below. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/17/sturgis-rally-spread/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=
  13. We just got some disappointing results from the WHO's large scale "Solidarity" set of clinical trials evaluating repurposed drugs, including remdesivir, HCQ, the lopinavir/ritonavir antiviral combination, and interferon-beta1 (with and without lopinavir) with COVID-19, with none of them showing any efficacy. The only real surprise here is remdesivir not showing efficacy, although its efficacy in the NIH trial was not particularly strong (but still significant in reducing hospitalization time) and different clinical trials can show different results, when efficacy is border
  14. I don't doubt at all that you and others are having lingering serious effects post-COVID (I'm a member of Survivor Corps FB group, so I see many stories there - I assume you know about that group), since there's still so much we don't know about this virus and I wish I had something positive to say for such folks. I will say that it does at least appear that true reinfections are very rare, but then again, we're still relatively early in this pandemic, so we need to keep monitoring such data.
  15. Pfizer confirmed what most scientists knew was likely - that they simply won't have enough data (specifically, 2 month safety data on half of participants until at least mid-November) to be able to file for an Emergency Use Authorization until at least mid-November, meaning there will not be an EUA for a COVID vaccine before Election Day, as Pfizer is the current frontrunner. This is not "good news" per se, as we should all want a safe, effective vaccine as early as possible, but this "controversy" about him applying political pressure to get an EUA by Election Day was all Tr
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