ru848789 - 33andrain Jump to content


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About ru848789

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    Metuchen, NJ (1 mile WNW of NJTPK Exit 10)

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  1. I know. But as I've stated multiple times around here, I look much more at impact of the total mass of frozen precip than at the density/depth of frozen precip. Apart from visibility, 1" LE as sleet has a very similar impact as 1" of LE as snow, as each is the same mass and from a snow removal/travel perspective, they're essentially equivalent. Snow's just much prettier. People are not thinking they could get 0.5-1.0" of frozen LE tomorrow.
  2. Surprised nobody posted the 18Z GFS-FV3 or NAM. Major interior snowfalls and even some mood flakes for the 95 corridor. Even the Euro/GFS are showing a bit more than the forecasts right now. Hopefully, this won't be a repeat of 11/15 (fromr a forecasting perspective - don't want to wish away anyone's snow, lol) where some/most of the models were showing a lot more snow than the forecasts, but there is the potential for that to occur (for the interior) - although it's not a work day, so even a surprise snowfall would likely not have the kind of impact it had for that event.
  3. Just had 5 minutes of mood flakes - ahhh, what could've been...
  4. From a ZR perspective, for the areas in SC/NC that are predicted to get up to 1/4" of freezing rain (like Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, etc.), the one saving grace will likely be that there will already be a few to several (to maybe many) inches of snow on the ground, such that hopefully, roads and sidewalks won't become skating rinks with the ZR simply falling on top of snow and being absorbed in the snowpack vs. freezing on the paved surfaces, which is far more dangerous. Many of these locations then look to turn over to plain rain with temps above 32F, which should also minimize road impacts. Not saying this isn't going to be an incredibly impactful storm for most of these locations, as they're just not used to getting several inches of snow or more, but it would be even worse if it started off with ZR and then was followed by snow, instead of vice-versa.
  5. ok, this makes much more sense for the NC area, with Asheville predicted to get much more snow than Charlotte, as per all the models. no idea why there's now a big red X instead of the snowfall map from yesterday on this post and the quoted post above. Have seen this before and have no idea why the image is lost. I post them on FB first, then copy them here, since any time I try to post them directly here, they're "live" images that get changed any time the NWS source image is updated and that's annoying too. Might need to go to one of those graphics hosting sites.
  6. Sorry if this was already posted (only went back a couple of pages), but can anyone explain why the NWS snowfall forecast has Charlotte getting 10" and Asheville only getting 4"? This makes no sense to me as every model shows more for Asheville, but maybe the NWS is seeing info I'm not.
  7. When I see "17 new replies" in the last 2 minutes, I know something's up. Y'all realize this potential storm is 8 days out right? You people are insane. That's why I love you sick bastards, lol...
  8. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    My point isn't to argue Euro vs. FV3 vs. NAM - it's more about given all 3 showing substantial snow for I-95, why so low on the snowfall forecasts? What was their thinking? And that's the NWS and every major media outlet I saw. I think it was climo groupthink, but can't prove it obviously.
  9. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    I only have access to the 10:1 ratio maps and they were nearly perfect, although I get your point about soundings, but even if Kuchera was underdone somewhat, if you're responsible for the forecast and you see the Euro and NAM predicting a lot more snow than you are (even the Kuchera, presumably), doesn't that give you pause? Unfortunately, I don't see the NWS folks posting anymore on this or AmericanWx, like they used to years ago. Probably because we're too critical, lol.
  10. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    Sorry, but you're wrong on this. Go back and look at the model runs, where 5 of the last 6 runs up until 12Z today showed a few inches for most of Monmouth/Ocean and several inches for most of LI (only 0Z last night had very little snow for Monmouth/Ocean). The Euro was nearly perfect.
  11. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    So, in light of the massive bust from the NWS (and I love those guys, but a bust is a bust) and every major media source I saw, especially for the 95 corridro, I go back to this post and I say to myself, ok, I guess they missed badly on all 3 factors that might've made them underpredict the snowfall: Very low snow ratios of 4-5:1 (nope, they looked like 10:1 to me), Much of the frozen precip falling as sleet (nope, it was mostly snow) Significant melting of the early part of the snowfall (nope, it accumulated from the get-go - I know I got that one right) Would love to know what went on in those meetings at the NWS, where they clearly saw the Euro consistently churning out 4-8" snowfalls (at 10:1 ratios) for Philly to NYC along/near I-95 - from what I recall the Euro was consistent on that for the last 3 days. Furthemore, they saw the NAM over the previous 24-36 hours before the storm consistently showing significant snowfalls for the 95 corridor (except for the Ferrier algorithm for the 3 km NAM, which obviously needs some tweaking, lol). The Euro is the best global model, as everyone knows, and the NAM has performed quite well in very energetic coastal storms over the past several years. If I recall correctly, only the GFS (the old one) was consistently showing only an inch or two of snow for the 95 corridor and we know that's not the best model (apart from Jan-15 - totally different setup, though). Did everyone really follow the GFS or was it simply a case of massive groupthink around climo, assuming it just couldn't snow that much in mid-Nov (despite recent history to the contrary on 10/29/11)? I'd just love to know. Wonder if the NWS will do an "after action review" to look at what happened. Thoughts? Maybe this should be a separate thread...
  12. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    33andrain as of 9:10 pm. Jumped up kind of quickly in the last 20 minutes and rising still (35F in NB), so the worst is over here. Helluva storm.
  13. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    We got a total of about 3/4" of sleet, bringing total frozen precip up to 7.0" when added to the 6.25" of snow we had (not 100% sure if kosher to split them into 2 parts, but that's what I got - need to check the snow measurement handbook from the NWS - unless someone here knows the rule on that) Been freezing rain (ZR) for the last 45 minutes or so - we have maybe 1/10th of an inch of glaze on everything. Fortunately, the roads are already covered with snow/slush, so some ZR on top of it doesn't matter much (ZR is much worse directly on roads/sidewalks when things become skating rinks). It's up to 31F here now and on its way up finally (33F reported in NB), so the worst is now close to over here and generally south of 78 and generally almost up to NYC along 95. But it's going to take several more hours to get above 32F anywhere close to 80, especially W of 287. Precip is not as heavy as it was and only expecting another 1/4" or so in most of CNJ and that's not enough to wash away what we have, so shovel now if you can, so you don't have to shovel a fair amount extra later from the rain being absorbed into the snowpack (1/4" of rain weighs a little less than half as much as 6" of "typical" snow and we got typical snow).
  14. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    As of 6:45 pm, it's still just 30F here and we have gotten 1/2" of sleet in the 90 minutes since it started sleeting heavily (I cleared the board from the 6.25" of snow at 5:15 pm). That makes sense as sleet is usually a ~3:1 ratio, so 1/2" of sleet is equivalent to about 1.6" of 10:1 snow, which would translate to a little over 1" per hour rates for the last 90 minutes.
  15. ru848789

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    Main St. was closed when I got home around 3 pm and I heard Grove and New Durham were closed in spots - at hills. Crazy out there.