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About ru848789

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    Metuchen, NJ (1 mile WNW of NJTPK Exit 10)

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  1. Holy crap, it's still 32F outside here in Metuchen and there's a layer of ice on almost everything. We had some ZR early in the evening, but then it went up to 33F a couple of hours ago, so I stopped paying attention and I noticed it back down to 32F a little while ago, so just went outside - we're probably just warm enough to not have ice accreting on the streets, but it's on the cars and trees and it's a different story not too far N of here...freezing rain may end up being the biggest story of this storm, at least N of 78.
  2. That last nice little band brought me to 2.4". Don't think I'm going to make my 2.75" prediction for my house, though, unless we get one last band to come through before the sleet, as we're now up to 30F and not much time left.
  3. Thanks. I've often used the AC rule, too (didn't know it was a rule, lol - just noticed it over the years). What do your spidey senses tell you about the next 2-3 hours and any chance of more snow?
  4. NWS-Philly just updated the advisories for the entire area, basically calling for up to 1" additional inch of snow, plus 0.1" of freezing rain. If most places get another 1/2" or so, the NWS general 2-4" forecast will verify, although on the low side; if not we'll have a modest bust on our hands. It happens, but I'll wait until about 6-7 pm before making any judgments on this one - since you never know (latest HRRR still calling for another 1" or more). National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 320 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Chalfont, and Perkasie 320 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware- Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 320 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware. * WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening. Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 320 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and northeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Thursday.
  5. 3rd biggest for me, since frozen mass counts more than depth, in my book - had about 0.5" frozen LE on 2/12 (about an inch of snow and 1" of sleet). 2.1", so far brings me to 12.6" this season (I still count just depth for seasonal purposes, though, since that's the standard), which is not quite embarrassing any more. If we could just get one serious storm or a couple of 4-6" events we'd end up respectable.
  6. Nice post. It's why I usually have 2-3 radars going as well as the old reliable "storm tracking" thread from Sacrus opened up on American. Not being a met, though, it frustrates me to not have the knowledge to look at the radar and conditions upstream of us and here to be able to at least guesstimate whether we're going to get more snow in a situation like this. Precip obviously isn't static (and can often come from "nothing" when the right conditions materialize) and I think too many people look at what's 50-100 miles away and heading toward them and assume it'll hold together and hit them and, vice-versa, if they don't see anything (like now), they might assume that the storm is over. Is there something you're looking right now to try to gauge whether the NYC metro/95 corridor is likely to get more snow? Like is that growing band W/NW of Philly going to keep growing and maybe intensify and find its way up here? Just curious...
  7. Have had intermittent light to moderate snow the last 90 minutes and we now have 2.1" of snow on the ground (0.6" in 90 minutes isn't great, but it's not zero either). Radar looks dried up for the next hour or so, will be interesting to see if the precip builds back up or not, while we still have enough cold air for snow/sleet. Most models are showing sleet by 6 pm in the Edison area and then maybe a bit of ZR before the plain rain comes. Let's see if we can eke out 3" total.
  8. He actually has some knowledge, but he hates snow and likes to tweak people, like me, who like snow (it's way worse on the RU football board, where I do weather threads, as a general interest topic). He was touting the HRRR highly this morning when it had a run with low snowfall and now that it shows more snow, he's denigrating it. I generally only like to use the HRRR for 5-6 hours out, as it has seemed pretty wonky beyond that.
  9. And another 1-1.5" of snow for most through 6 pm when, in CNJ, at least, it looksl like we flip to sleet...
  10. Had 3/4" in Rahway when I went outside to go home around 12:30 pm and Ijust got home to Metuchen and we have 1.5" of snow OTG as of 1 pm. Snow has definitely decreased in intensity, but another band looks close, but might slide just to our south. After that, the NWS is expecting lighter precip for much of the afternoon, then an increase in intensity again. Question then will be how much snow do we get before the change to sleet (late afternoon here, likely) and then how much sleet and freezing rain we get before ~1/2" of plain rain falls later tonight for most locations, except well N/W. Local roads are snow-covered and slippery and even Route 1 was slushy in many spots, so travel is not going to be easy this afternoon (unless the current lull lasts longer than expected). Hoping I make it to my 2.75" prediction for my house - NWS seems to think the 2-4" forecast for most will verify, as per the updated discussion below. 27F here. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1238 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 PM: The morning round of enhanced frontogenesis lift is winding down. Expect that we will see a period of relatively light precipitation through the afternoon, before we have another round of moderate to heavy precipitation this evening. As for precipitation type, sleet is beginning to mix in in southern Delaware. As warm air aloft continues to advect in, we should see the line of a sleet mix move further north. Later this afternoon, as the elevated warm layer becomes deeper and the bottom of the layer gets closer to the surface, freezing rain becomes more of a threat for areas that may still be below freezing. For Delmarva and southeastern NJ, expect the change over to wintry mix to continue for the next few hours, followed by a change over to all rain mid afternoon. For much of the I95 corridor, the transition is expected to occur mid afternoon to early evening (unfortunately not likely to see a change over to all rain in these locations before the start of the evening commute). The southern Poconos and NW NJ will be the last to see the change over to all rain, which may not come until well after midnight tonight. Snow and ice amounts: With this update, adjusted snow amounts up slightly primarily near the MD/PA/DE border which has been the prime location for frontogenesis lift for the last few hours. Now have storm total amounts of 4 to 6 inches; already 2 to 3 inches has fallen in some locations. No changes to the ice amounts with this update. For much of the rest of the area, it still looks like a general 2 to 4 inches. Areas south of here will see amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range. Additional concern is freezing rain. A light glaze up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice accretion is likely over the northern Delmarva N/E along the I-95 corridor while upwards of one to two tenths of an inch of ice is expected over portions of eastern PA from western Chester County north through Berks County, the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos. Impacts: Regardless of the exact snow and ice amounts, we remain very concerned that much of the region could be seeing the greatest impacts coincident with the evening commute. The one exception is much of the Delmarva and SE NJ which should see the change over to all rain before this time. Even if the snow and ice amounts are lower, the potential for ice on top of snow, could result in very slippery conditions.
  11. NWS in Philly and NYC upped the snowfall forecasts for most of the advisory counties in CNJ, NNJ, NE NJ, NYC, and the Hudson Valley from 1-3" to 2-4". Always thought 1-3" was too low. Snowfall maps reflect significant increases vs. yesterday afternoon's, with many locations predicted to be right at 4" (makes me wonder why the advisories in many places aren't for 3-5"). Nice. A couple of the 6Z models show a little less snow than last night, so it'll be a real kick in the head if they had it right, increased snowfall amounts and then the old 1-3" numbers would've been better. They don't say it in their AFD, but I have to imagine they didn't want to go against the Euro/NAM. weather advisory
  12. My nightly question - anyone seen the UK?