ru848789 - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content


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About ru848789

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    Metuchen, NJ (1 mile WNW of NJTPK Exit 10)

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  1. Just took a quick walk - gorgeous out there with moderate (not quite heavy) snow and 1/4" down; guessing another 1/4" before this band ends - nice!
  2. Yep - someone's going to be wrong - let's hope it's Mt. Holly!
  3. Light snow has begun here in Metuchen! Band looks thinner, so hoping for 1/2" out of it...
  4. Didn't see anyone mention that, surprisingly, the NWS-NYC upped their snowfall forecast for NYC metro at 10 am. Not sure why, since there was no AFD update at the same time, but they did. Here you go...
  5. Not true - models are most accurate right before the event (less chance for initial condition or boundary condition errors to propagate out in time, since so much less time to the event), so they have value, although it's always possible the mesoscale models have it wrong. I will qualify that by saying that a model with data inputs from 12Z (7 am EST) is much less relevant for conditions at noon vs. actual observations for noon. But that's less true for the HRRR which runs every hour.
  6. Hope you're right - the suspense is killing me, as always, lol - that's why this hobby is so fascinating...
  7. You're in good company as the esteemed Walt Drag has also been postulating that the sleet risk goes all the way up to his neck of the woods in far northern Sussex and the 84 corridor. Could make for a much less aesthetically pleasing event if much of the snow falls as sleet, although I'll always take sleet over rain (same impact on driving and removal, based on total mass, although not the same visibility impact).
  8. I've always liked looking at the maps to get an idea of their thinking. Anyway, yes the WWA was bumped from 1-3" to 1-4" for Somerset/Middlesex/Mercer, but dropped from 2-4" to 1-4" for Hunterdon, Morris, Warren and Sussex in Mt. Holly's CWA (and similar changes for the EPA counties). And the maps clearly showed about a 1" drop for everyone south of 78.
  9. NWS (Philly and NYC offices) reduced snowfall a bit for areas along and south of 78, including for NYC, based mostly on less QPF while temps are cold enough, combined with more sleet/rain, according to the AFDs. None of the advisory counties changed and the advisories still say 2-4" for NE NJ/NYC/LI, but the maps have less within that 2-4" range. A little surprised as I didn't think the 0Z models had backed off on snowfall amounts, but what do I know, lol.
  10. That map looks much more reasonable than the Pivotal map, below. Just can't see coastal Monmouth getting more than most of LI, when both are getting the same LE of 0.4-0.5". Of course, I'd take the 4.7" lollipop at my house, lol.
  11. Farily similar to 6Z, meaning no real dip in snowfall, like we just saw for the 12Z NAM vs. the 6Z.
  12. Euro comes in a bit snowier than today's 12Z, like most of the other 0Z models. Nice. Might actually get 2-3" out of this in the 95 corridor.
  13. Sorry, I went back and read your original post and thought you said a 90% probability of 5" not up to 5", so we're actually in agreement. As an aside, I posted a follow-up in this post that was still thinking you said a 90% probability of 5", so I edited it to say what I said just above - the odd thing is that I was able to edit this post, but not my first reply to you 45 minutes ago - is there some timed period during which one can edit a post? Never noticed this before.
  14. And probably 75-90% of the "snow" on the TT map is actual snow, not mostly sleet counted as 10:1 snow, as one can see from looking at the Pivotal map, which only shows snow and which is only slightly less than the TT map which includes sleet. The rest of the precip is rain, which only looks to be substantial just SE of 95, although even areas towards the Jersey Shore show getting 1-2" of snow, which is a huge improvement over close to 0". Also, the CoolWx map below shows very little sleet or rain along and NW of 95 from TTN to NYC for the 00Z NAM. Best case scenario for many of us, especially along 95. Would you like me to go on a long diatribe about snow/sleet algorithms and maps?
  15. No, that's not correct. The 90th percentile map means there's a 10% chance of reaching or exceeding the amount shown on the 90th percentile map - basically what Thundersnow said. Basically, the most likely outcome is the 50th percentile with a 50% probability of reaching that amount and the probabilities go down in each direction from that centerpoint, i.e., the probability of getting the amount in either the 10th percentile or 90th percentile is 10%.
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