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About BMC10

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  1. The euro was a arm hair away last night from something major.
  2. The euro is like 30 hours faster than the gfs and 2 days over the fv3. You think the models are struggling with handling of the energy much?
  3. Something looks really funky out west early on. This elongated piece of vorticity completely flattens the pna trough and there is no northern stream energy to speak of, so no phasing. It’s pretty much a weak piece of energy on the euro that ejects out of the sw us and traverses the country from w to e in a relatively zonal and progressive flow.
  4. On a side not man is the euro quick with the evolution. However no northern stream interaction.
  5. I don’t think this run produces much, the shortwave energy in the trough is very unimpressive, the pna ridge is flat, and everything is kind of progressive and zonal.
  6. Euro is not enthused with the shortwave energy ejecting out of the sw, appears weaker with that feature.
  7. Nope didn’t pertain to you, didn’t even know that was your opinion. I was encouraging discussion from those in particular who were just stating simply suppression without any reasoning. Clearly you have your belief as to why it could be suppressed.
  8. Where do you live? You have been fixated on this suppression idea. There have been numerous posts indicating reasons not favoring such a solution.
  9. Suppression I right? Or is it now runner bummer?
  10. I agree with the pna ridge orientation. I don’t see the blocking as stout enough to prevent our confluence or 50/50 feature from moving out in time. Love your post though, completely agree. Going to get a storm, let’s hope it involves everyone.
  11. The issue I have with this is that there needs to be some sort of mechanism in place to support the idea of a suppressed storm. I would argue that isn’t the case. One thing guidance seems consistent on is both the amplitude and placement of a strong PNA ridge axis near Boise, Idaho. This ridge axis has downstream implications. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. I firmly believe the pna amplitude is conducive for allowing this to come north. That aspect is two fold. First any northern stream shortwave interaction should be encouraged as the energy would be forced south into the base of the mid level trough encouraging phasing. Subsequently favorable positive vorticity advection up the front side of the trough is encouraged. Everything slows down and is pulled North with the potential mid level center closing off. Furthermore, suppressed solutions although not as common, when they do occur often require some type of anomalous feature. I don’t see that. If we had stout North Atlantic blocking with a displaced polar vortex or a retrograding block into an unfavorable position, I could see the concern. But that isn’t the case. I think we have just enough North Atlantic cooperation to allow the confluence to stay in place long enough and prevent our 50/50 from escaping too quickly. This seems like an excellent opportunity to capitalize with a favorable pacific in conjunction with a supportive Atlantic, with the two working in tandem. The confluence is there, but doesn’t seem like a detriment. As the trough begins to go negative in the Mississippi River valley, the gulf is open for business and a large amount of moisture should begin to override the cold dome. My biggest fear for this escaping south and east would be if the modeled PNA ridge becomes less enthusiastic or flattened by a wave train that acts to kick the pattern progressively East.
  12. What’s with the suppression talk? Where do these concerns stem from? Other than some guidance showing it. Any reasoning behind it, synoptically speaking? I’d argue the evolution at h5 doesn’t support that.
  13. The pattern is pretty conducive to wintry weather next weekend in the northeast. A well timed and placed pna ridge axis, higher heights in the epo domains, North Atlantic blocking and strong confluence are all necessary pieces of the puzzle. I think the northern stream involvement will be there to pull this thing north. I think the northern stream will be encouraged to become more meridonial in response to several factors. It becomes kind of jammed up with a nice 50/50 in the mix and the amplitude of the pna ridge having downstream effects. In addition the models are indicating some help from the North Atlantic. This typically is the “under modeled” aspect of these setup. I don’t see DC and Baltimore getting it and the rest of the I-95 corridor missing out.
  14. And then there is the 12z euro with back to back snowstorms....ok then
  15. I rather have the pattern be conducive for wintry weather over a model showing a particularly snowy solution. I’m not sure I buy into a coastal hugger or warmer solution if players such as an amplified pna ridge, epo ridge, strong confluence and even North Atlantic help are on the field. The gfs has just this, that to me doesn’t support what the surface depicts.