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Senior Wx Expert
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About BMC10

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    Franklin Lakes, NJ

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  1. Got it and fair enough. But I’m talking about more then just the coast.
  2. Let’s also be honest. I’m a huge snow weenie. Have always been. And I’ve been on a lot of forums, the reality is they are all slanted pro snow/cold. I historically have been also, but I’ve learned with age and maturity that I can’t let my love for snow cloud my realistic interpretation of the pattern and the likely sensible outcome. So to say that a dissenting opinion get’s less attention or favoritism is an understatement. And I’ve certainly felt this over the last few years as I’ve become more disciplined in my approach. Listen we have had some great stretches of winters, but we don’t always win. Hopefully we can capitalize soon for everyone.
  3. I could be wrong but I thought it was you that picked a bone with me regarding my sentiment that this would warm overtime because of the primary driving to our n and w with no Atlantic blocking to counteract such from occurring.
  4. Yes there are a lot of contradicting factors to a real pattern change or reversal vs a period of improved or more supportive features for some wintry weather. I haven’t seen anything yet to say confidently this will be a true pattern change or reversal that will last for at least an appreciable amount of time.
  5. The warming trend will continue. Our precip will be associated with the WAA because of the primary driving so far n and w. There is no mechanism to keep the cold in place with no Atlantic help. Even those n and w of the coastal plain are going to see a warming trend on models. You are going to have to be pretty decently inland to see significant snows.
  6. Plenty have been unrealistic regarding high snowfall totals closer to the coast. But posting several snowfall maps that show 6-12” into the coastal plain gives people a false sense of hope. The primary driving so far n and w is a real killer.
  7. These were pretty obvious adjustments that would occur based on the pattern. Remember the pattern and not the models determine the sensible weather.
  8. Seriously. The way this winter has gone so far I’d give anything for a solid 3” of snowfall.
  9. Awesome post dude. So true it helps to reinforce and promote caa, displace the gradient and baroclinic zone further s and e.
  10. Although I agree with the above sentiments, I must say I’ve become intrigued by the closed mid level EPO ridge and the impacts it is having downstream. It forces the PV to park over eastern Canada and serves to flatten the entire flow, essentially keeping the evolution of this system more progressive. That could be beneficial and something I am keeping a close eye on.
  11. Less concerned about specific storm threats more concerned about the pattern evolution. Still a more favorable pattern transpiring...correct?
  12. Ggem is no good? Everyone was posting the 30” it showed yesterday.
  13. I am usually there every year MLK weekend. Last year got crushed with over two feet while I was there. Good luck dude, that’s awesome. Make sure you get on the snow mobiles!
  14. Just appeared that meteorological sense was getting overshadowed by constant rhetoric regarding winter cancel un-cancel and all these crazy snow maps showing almost a foot of snow into nyc. And all experts here clearly haven’t agreed over the past two or three days, there has been divergence regarding this system. Complete agreement would actually be somewhat concerning lol.
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