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BMC10

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  1. Yes I made a post the other day and included several longer term images that never transpired. Gfs ensembles do not have North Atlantic cooperation going forward. The threat around the 24 might not work out without blocking, especially if another pacific wave crashes into the west coast as some guidance indicates.
  2. There is no North Atlantic cooperation throughout the duration of the gfs. Forget about long term. The Pacific continues to derail everything and crashes troughs into the west coast. It’s more of the same pattern, cold shots with moderation and rain. But DC got 10 inches of snow so the pattern changed. I’m sure someone will come at me again, even though once again I provided sound anaylsis of the pattern. Or I’m sure I’ll get another week 2-3 ensemble image. At what point does a week 2-3 image become a week image or even under day ten?
  3. Dude that setup is atrocious synoptically speaking. Look at the h5. No North Atlantic blocking, another trough crashing into the west coast, it’s a clear rain setup.
  4. StArting to see some agreement with guidance now. Hopefully nyc can get some front end.
  5. Cold is great but people want snow. If the synoptic pattern remains status quo then January 25 will be too warm for NYC. So it will warm up and rain with cold following. Yay. The pattern was supposed to have been “much” more favorable for snow post January 15. We stand the potential of punting the entire month of January with no significant snow. Hopefully something does change so we can get some white systems not wet ones. I don’t think anyone appreciates this cold weather with warmups and rain.
  6. Just to illustrate how the pattern didn’t transpire exactly as depicted in the LR. The North Atlantic was depicted to be more favorable along with a more cooperative pacific and more stout epo ridge. This would be for this weekends setup, the negative trends and less favorable synoptic setup than what was once depicted is why we are now worrying about the outcome.
  7. He’s on record calling for a historic winter.
  8. No I don’t want you to purchase me dinner and I certainly don’t want to be right.
  9. Dude I’ve never prayed more you will be right. I can’t take not having snow, it’s like a drug to me. And I’ll absolutely buy you several rounds, I’ll even come down your way. Pick a bar in Westfield, your dinner and drinks on me.
  10. This is true. And this is what gives me hope. That was an incredible period.
  11. Your last two images for this upcoming setup couldn’t have explained my point any better. Look at the decrease in favorability of the pacific, the epo block is far less stout, and the North Atlantic blocking poof....vanished. If you don’t think that is of significance, especially on an ensemble mean, you are crazy. Those features fading or becoming non existent most definitely have downstream impacts and effects on the system this weekend. We all wouldn’t be arguing right now if the ensembles were correct in their longer range depiction hour 264 over what is actually transpiring or being depicted at hour 144. The setup shown at hour 264 features blocking that would have limited how far north the primary low could get and prevent height rises on the ec. That pattern would have counteracted the amplification of the overall trough so as to allow a more favorable track for I95. So to say as we are getting closer the signal or favorability of the pattern hasn’t faded would be an outright lie. It also makes me question the continued prevalence of these features in the longer range guidance. I have images btw. Just need help posting them.
  12. More 300+ hours mAps. Just a few days ago the gefs, eps, and operAtional guidance had a very favorable synoptic setup for the Jan 23-24 timeframe. They have since done a 180. The eps now has a trough crashing into the west, higher ec heights, se ridging, and no North Atlantic help. With such a big reversal and clear head fake I’ll remain cautiously optimistic about the continued posting of 300+ hour maps. Once we can get the signal inside the medium range and have it unfold as depicted, only then will I get excited.
  13. I’ll leave this here so as to not upset too many people. But look at the eps now. At 200 hours for example it has a trough crashing the west coast, se ridging and higher ec heights, and no real North Atlantic blocking, even the pacific is still a mess. My point being that the long range signal gets muted as we get closer. I remember when I was looking a week ago at this same timeframe (because I will be traveling) the eps, gefs and operAtional runs had North Atlantic blocking and the pv displaced over the northeast with extremely cold air. It’s like a 180 flip. In fact the guidance was showing the PV elongating with a really nice setup for a major storm, boy has that signal for the 22-24 timeframe really went away. Now the euro and gfs have another Rainer with an unfavorable synoptic setup.
  14. Looks terrible through day ten. Really not that cold over continental us, trough crashing into the west, se us ridging pumping heights on the ec and no North Atlantic blocking. Same old pattern, no wonder both the gfs and euro showing another rainer. But don’t worry major changes including North Atlantic blocking are being depicted in the day 11-15 range, eventually it’s coming.
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