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BMC10

Senior Wx Expert
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About BMC10

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    Franklin Lakes, NJ

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  1. It seems people are more focused on the forecasts for an unfavorable December instead of the fact we are tracking our second accumulating snowfall before December 10. I really don’t get the lack of enthusiasm. I get that it’s not a block buster event, but it’s still snow early in the season, again.
  2. I would generally agree with this. I’m thinking the city might come close to half a foot also. It appears they should get in on the banding. NNJ looks good also.
  3. There’s a persistent theme on most guidance that underneath the band (wherever it occurs) will see some pretty impressive snowfall accumulations. That could include nyc it looks like. Several pieces of guidance spitting out 8-14 amounts in that band, nothing to sneeze at whoever get under that.
  4. Struggling with thermals here. I don’t believe the representation of rain.
  5. No change to my thoughts. NYC first snowstorm of the season, a significant one at that! I like 3-6” in the metro. Need to watch trend into tomorrow and adjust. Hudson valley and nnj areas could see 8-14”+. Nothing to sneeze at.
  6. It’s wrong. It’s surface depiction is severely flawed. It’s handling the pva terribly. It will catch on by tomorrow night.
  7. Correct and anyone investing much interest in the gfs is lost. I’ve said this for days and I’ll continue to say it. Don’t get overly caught up in each particular model run. Look at the big picture and the pattern in place, that’s what lead me to be encouraged days ago about the prospects of snow. An accumulating snowfall, and a potentially significant one at that is coming. For some areas this will be much bigger than that.
  8. I caution you because of the evolution and how it gets there. This is predominantly waa, the coastal is of little significance. I’m not saying we can’t get snow from the waa but we certainly want that intense coastal. That’s the difference between some snow and something more special.
  9. I always like any potential situation that involves North Atlantic blocking. The wave break you mention is important also. Important is the track and location of the mid level, closed off in an ideal position typically produces.
  10. It’s not good. Predominantly a swing and a miss. Doesn’t really matter though.
  11. My thoughts remain the same. Follow the synoptic pattern and it will lead you in the right direction. Once again the pattern is favorable so we are seeing an adjustment to it at the surface. Snow is a coming. Too many people overlooked the North Atlantic blocking and now we see why it’s so important as the entire pattern responds accordingly. Remember how pessimistic I was last season (so much so I got banned )? It’s because the synoptic pattern did not support all the wintry weather guidance / forecasters were calling for. This is not that case. This is a situation where the synoptic pattern does support wintry weather. We just have to work out the finer details over the next 3 days. Don’t get overly caught up in each model run and it’s surface depiction. Look at the larger picture and pay attention to the subtle changes that have monumental impacts on our sensible weather.
  12. My thoughts remain the same. Follow the synoptic pattern and it will lead you in the right direction. Once again the pattern is favorable so we are seeing an adjustment to it at the surface. Snow is a coming. Too many people overlooked the North Atlantic blocking and now we see why it’s so important as the entire pattern responds accordingly. Remember how pessimistic I was last season (so much so I got banned )? It’s because the synoptic pattern did not support all the wintry weather guidance / forecasters were calling for. This is not that case. This is a situation where the synoptic pattern does support wintry weather. We just have to work out the finer details over the next 3 days. Don’t get overly caught up in each model run and it’s surface depiction. Look at the larger picture and pay attention to the subtle changes that have monumental impacts on our sensible weather.
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