CloudIridescence - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content


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  1. I unfortunately do not have as great a wealth of knowledge to lend out on this topic, but just from looking at the magnitude of the AAM graphed from the past 365 days, it seems that we are in opposite AAM states between this time last year and now. If I'm interpreting this correctly, it seems like there is a misconception that last winter had a primarily -AAM, and people are fretting over the future of this winter because we are again in a -AAM... In contrast, there was a rather +AAM last winter, peaking in February—when we had a very La Nina-esque look in the U.S. ... At least, with regards to the SE ridge dominating the weather on the east coast, with a equally dominating western trough. La Nina 500mb heights in February (Feb +SOI Correlations to represent) +AAM 500mb heights in February Observed 500mb heights in February 2019 ... Despite the solidly +AAM, the height anomalies were not reflective of a +AAM regime. I've noticed Snowy Hibbo trying to stress the point that the AAM state currently being observed is not a death sentence for the upcoming winter in the east, and a -AAM regime does not necessarily look bad for the DJF trimonthly period for 500mb heights. DJF 500mb Anomalies for -AAM TL;DR - The AAM between last winter and this upcoming winter are in opposite states - The current -AAM does not guarantee a warm/snowless winter - Last year's solid +AAM in February, which AAM state is correlated with a pattern that's favorable for wintery weather in the east overall, did not having a matching weather pattern ... Correlation /=/ causation
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