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ThomeWx

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About ThomeWx

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  • Birthday September 25

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    Asheville, NC

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  1. Its slowly getting colder here in Asheville. Here is a link for obs in my area:http://www.atms.unca.edu/observations.shtml . Been sprinkling for a while, hopefully it turns to snow soon. Already did a balloon launch, and here is that data: . We'll be doing more balloon launches throughout the storm, one at 21z, one at 0z, and one at 6z.
  2. One of my first snowfall estimates. My first for this storm. I will likely change my mind a million times before the storm starts, so this is likely my only one. Please tell me if I'm severely off in some place with reasoning if you find any.
  3. I think what is weird about the weekend storm down here, is that the modeling has had it here for six or so days. That's pretty crazy. I haven't been watching weather for as long as some of you have, but in 8 or so years, I don't think I've ever seen models do that. What are your thoughts?
  4. I'm hoping for 2 ft here. Doubt it'll happen though.
  5. I'm still very cautiously excited atm. I used to live in Raleigh, where you had to be much more wary of sleet and zr, but it's looking fairly good here in Asheville. Last night when I saw GSP had 4 inches here I was getting really concerned, asking if they were seeing something I wasn't, but now that moment has passed, and I think it's looking good for at least 6-8 inches at the low end, and up to 2 ft at the high end, if it's mostly snow, and we get a little more precipitation than was thought. That would be an official record here, with the last record being 18 inches from the storm of the century. If we go back further, there is a storm that is purported to have dropped 33 inches here in early december, but it was in 1886, so it's an unofficial record. Anyways, I hope the warm nose doesn't stick around here too long.
  6. I know you all are kinda miffed about this threat, but I'm really happy. This could be the biggest storm I've ever seen (I've only seen a 9" storm, and when I was visiting family up north. I've seen 8" twice back in Raleigh.).
  7. I'm liking the way it's looking in Asheville right now. I know it's still about a week out though, so I'm a little worried I'll be getting the title of this site.
  8. Is this the mean or control?
  9. I'm getting to start to like this pattern.
  10. I'm really starting to like the chances for the second storm down here in Asheville. I think the pattern is looking good for that storm down here. The last few days the EPS has jumped in the amount of snow we're getting, and a lot of the models are changing with the 500mb to look better.
  11. the 12/9-10 storm is even looking good here. It would be the day before my calc final. That's fun. The 500 mb has been looking better and better for it, and the ensembles (even the EPS) are starting to raise the amount of snow.
  12. Snowing in Asheville, NC right now. Wasn't expecting this. Is this what is called a Northwest flow event?
  13. ThomeWx

    Playing with my 2 favorite ANTI-LOGS

    I'm curious. Is there a reason for antilogs other than to see very bad matches for this winter. I can see that they have worked so far, but is there any meteorological reason that they would work.
  14. ThomeWx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Even mid-30's are fine during the snowfall given that you have sufficiently cold mid-levels, and cold comes in right after.
  15. ThomeWx

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Is there a slideshow that I'm missing?
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