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ava_ati

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About ava_ati

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    Saint Augustine, FL

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  1. I know you NE guys love your snow, but some pretty decent low level winds on the SE side as well 60 KT 900 MB winds all along the Gulf coast and into FL, won't take much to drop some nasty gusts to the surface.
  2. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Does concrete block not hold up to hurricanes very well? I would have assumed it would stand easier than a wood frame constructed home.
  3. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Really tired of making history every 3 months... Guess we had to make up for what? 8 years without a hurricane landfall in the US?
  4. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Jeff isn't live Mark Suddath is You can turn on notifications for Jeff's youtube here https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTWhf2uDTdr3pVNKUCdgnDQ
  5. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    I can't believe there are people in mobile homes in front of Jeff P riding it out, I live 20 miles inland in a well built house... I'd be on vacation if that thing was down here.
  6. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Is this for real? Important to post the 2nd part
  7. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Yep, I am in St. Augustine and I have my eyes glued to radar for any outer bands especially as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. Looking at most models we should get our first band around ~3-5 pm EST that should be our worst band but we shall see. Highs in the 90's with dewpoints in the low 80's
  8. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Looks like it is in the infancy stage of an ERC on radar, could be about the only thing that we can hope for at this point, that it weakens as the inner eye gets choked off. All about timing at this point.
  9. ava_ati

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Yeah this is the best it has looked in its lifetime, clear eye, closed off eye wall. People don't realize what a difference a strengthening storm is compared to a weakening storm at landfall.
  10. I hate TWC sometimes... dude is falling all over the place like he can barely stand up meanwhile there is two guys in background strolling around like it is an afternoon rain shower. There is enough drama going on without having to invent it
  11. I don't, obviously the NHC is the ultimate source but by the time you are well within the cone hotel rooms are filled up and you are SOL. During Matthew we had to drive all the way to Hamilton, AL to find an open hotel (that took pets). After that I started model watching because if you make plans around the NHC forecast it is too late, the store shelves are empty and hotels are booked in a 500 mile radius. So having a model that is more historically accurate can help people like me make those initial preps. and in 20 years if the NHC forecast is super accurate out to 7 days, I will be looking for the model that performs the best at 12 - 14 days out... Always have to be one step ahead of the masses
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