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  1. *Spring 2020 + February 2020 forecast* We present you the first long-range forecasts for Spring 2020, and we also look at the winter temperatures and pressure so far, and how the winter might end in February. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-analysis-early-forecast-spring-fa/
  2. @ Red Fox, kar var mı? I do not know if the paper was posted here: Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL029951 Spatial correlation between detrended HadCRUT3v [Brohan et al., 2006] SAT averaged over the region 5°–15°E, 46°–52°N and NCEP Z500 of the 3‐monthly average for (a) SON and (b) DJF over the period 1958–2005 (shaded). Contour lines indicate 90% significance level. Several similarities to this season IOD+: QBO W'ly->E'ly: Possible similarities: MJO GWO: PV strong JAN-FEB: SSW type D, 23. feb: Poor propagation: And Severe Weather Europe, January/February 2020 forecast: https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/january-february-outlook-winter-2020-fa/
  3. So far it has been NAO +: "The term 'North Atlantic Oscillation' refers to variations in the large-scale surface pressure gradient in the North Atlantic region. In the average state of the atmosphere, the North Atlantic surface pressure is relatively high in the subtropics at latitudes 20°N to 40°N ('the Azores High'), and lower further North at latitudes 50°N to 70°N (the 'Icelandic Low'). The North-South pressure difference determines the strength of the westerly winds across the Atlantic, particularly in the winter, and fluctuations in this difference are known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)." https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/monitoring/modes.html
  4. Yes, it is the formula for NAO: DEC: NAO +
  5. Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere ECMWF | Reading | 18-21 November 2019 https://www.ecmwf.int/en/learning/workshops/workshop-stratospheric-predictability-impact-troposphere Interesting presentation: Reducing Bias with Gravity Wave Drag
  6. Even when SSW happens, we don't know the type (different effects in troposphere), the PV orientation, PV cells position(in a case of split), propagation, tropospheric reaction ... We have seen what happened with the last SSW. Turkey and Balkans are having very warm autman weather and this pattern will follow until the end of november. To shift AC over this area which extends even over the Ural a strong impulse is needed (IMHO). MJO moved too fast through favourable blocking phases , thus we can't feel their effect in Europe.
  7. Great posts @Armando S , @Snowy Hibbo, and @OHweather! I have one more opinion about the situation (IMHO), impressive Rossby wave train is similar to: 1. North American dipole (NAD): 2. Or, maybe, Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere (TNH). Michael Ventrice‏: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1192083669135085569 I am waiting for Yours comments.
  8. Exellent work Bring Back. Does the Blob really affect winter weather conditions in Europe? Paper: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/seeing-red-across-north-pacific-ocean Atmospheric connection to the Blob, "Tropical/Northern Hemisphere” (TNH) pattern: Link: https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/2017/08/22/atmospheric-connection-to-the-blob/
  9. Is propagation being worse because +PDO ? https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0266.1 https://people.nwra.com/resumes/dunkerton/pubs/sci.294.xx.581.pdf
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