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snywx

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About snywx

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    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 01/25/1979

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  • Location
    Middletown NY

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  1. NAM says anyone south of MSV is wet.. Starting to realize this is a nonevent even for those 50+ miles NW of the city
  2. Upton latest thinking.. Upper trough pivots eastward in time, which will allow a wave of low pressure to develop out ahead of it Monday near the Ohio Valley and toward the mid Atlantic coast. Leaned toward a GFS/ECMWF tracks per collab with WPC and surrounding offices, with a low pressure passage just to our south Tuesday. Generally dry conditions Monday, outside of any light precip in the vicinity of the front, will give way to a higher chance of measurable precip Monday night into Tuesday. Analysis of various guidance suggests enough warm air for plain rain, with a cooling of the column Tuesday as the low passes just south. More QPF likely just north of the area where baroclinic zone is expected and deeper lift is noted. Would generally expect snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches across the interior zones, with very little near the coast as colder air does not arrive before precip winds down late in the day. Lack of cold air damming ahead of the low will also suggest less snow attm.
  3. You are gonna wanna be N of 84 for this one.
  4. 36° w/ on and off light snow/sleet
  5. Ill take the 2-4" its printing out for up here.. What a start to this season! It already has that " it just wants to snow" feeling.
  6. Damn... Mon night/Tuesday event is looking better & better. Sneaky 3-5" event for the interior?
  7. Deep winter feel In the Hudson valley right now
  8. This ^ I mentioned this on here when I first saw the PNS come out that night. I live on the northern fringe of Wawayanda bordering Mt Hope and in no way did we get 18" lol.. 11-13" was the general theme here.
  9. Latest from Upton.. high pres shifts offshore on Sun as the entrance region of an upper jet streak with weak shortwave energy tracks from the Ohio Valley into New England. WAA will also ensure later Sun and more so Sun night. This is expected to lead to the expansion of precipitation north and west of NYC late Sun/Sun eve with a weak sfc low passing through Mon morning. A frontal boundary will then approach from the NW and slowly track across the area Mon into Tue bringing the potential for additional pcpn. Soundings are initially indicating pcpn to begin as snow well inland Sun night, transitioning to rain by Mon morning with plain rain throughout the entire event closer to the coast. There is some uncertainty with the thermal profiles inland Mon night into Tue, the GFS is significantly colder than the NAM, so this will need to be monitored and adjusted as needed. Have leaned more on the colder side for now.
  10. Ive been keeping an eye on it. Mt Holly mentioned it in their last AFD. High pressure will continue to weaken to our west overnight as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest Saturday night. The front may wash our overnight before reaching our area, then high pressure briefly builds across the area early on Sunday. Through the day Sunday, a surface boundary is forecast to move into our area from the west as the high pressure moves eastward. Enhanced lift and moisture are forecast to move across the area Sunday through Monday as the boundary slowly traverses the area. This could begin a period of showers to much of the area, especially northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey later Sunday through Monday night, before shifting to the east later Monday into Monday night. Details in thermal profiles are still quite uncertain, but there is the potential for another mix of rain and snow for some areas. Northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey have the best chance of seeing snow, while areas farther south have the best chance of staying rain. If snow occurs across the northern areas, there could be some accumulations later Sunday into Monday.
  11. I wish I could like this more than once..
  12. 11/19-11/20 is looking like a sneaky snowpack refresher for the interior.. @NSFW Weather Guy Wouldn't surprise me to see 1-2" during this timeframe. It showing up on most guidance
  13. snywx

    YTD Snow Totals 2018-19

    11" final West end of Middletown
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