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About Ace

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  • Birthday 10/20/1993

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  1. Severe thunderstorm watch out for a big area. Not surprising considering how active things are now. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southeastern New York Extreme northeastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist and spread east-southeastward from southeastern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania to southern New England through the afternoon. The strongest storms could have some transient supercell structures, with multicell clusters the primary storm mode. Occasional damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Monticello NY to 20 miles east northeast of Providence RI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
  2. Those storms by the Northwestern tip of NJ look interesting...Southern NY should be on the lookout
  3. SPC ..Eastern NY to southern New England this afternoon... As of midday, scattered thunderstorm development is underway across NY, in association with a diffuse speed max rotating around the southern periphery of a closed low over QC. Storms will spread east-southeastward through the afternoon, as continued surface heating will boosts MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt will support multicell clusters and low-end supercells, with attendant threats for damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible this afternoon, particularly in far southern New England. A WW may be needed this afternoon. Trends in storm organization will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave is currently pivoting around and upper-level low through western NY. Thunderstorm development has already started in eastern NY and further development is expected as the boundary layer continues to warm this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern New England and adjacent areas of PA/NJ. Though low and mid-level flow will not be overly strong, a few convectively-enhanced damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly where any more organized multi-cell clusters can develop. Current observations suggest that the greatest threat for wind damage will likely be within far southern New England where temperatures are already in the low to mid 80s F. Here, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg is probable by afternoon as well as low-level lapse rates being slightly greater. A WW is possible this afternoon should trends in storm organization become more clear.
  4. 12z NAM continues the same theme. HRRR is certainly active in my vicinity, so I think my chances are decent here in NE Jersey. Glad to see we are not dealing with a morning MCS and debris, but still remains to be seen how far S the severe threat extends. Somewhat decent setup with the big star being the big CAPE numbers expected. Below is Upton's recent discussion from 10 AM this morning. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... For today the focus is clearly on how much coverage can take place, and potentially the degree of severity with respect to thunderstorms. Starting off the day with an MCS passing by to the north, but unlike yesterday this MCS is further north and SPC mesoanalysis clearly has minimal effects on instability development, especially further south and southwest across the area, and eventually across the entire area for early this afternoon. The trigger will be the approach of a 700 mb shortwave currently over the Eastern Lakes and far Western NY. As this approaches and primes the mid level environment expect thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of a thermal trough, which will eventually push further east. Most of the higher res CAMs attempt to develop a line, or at least broken line segments, multi- cell clusters just NW of the area towards and shortly after midday. Then push the activity east and potentially southeast into our area. Unlike yesterday there is plenty of CAPE / instability available. Bulk shear values look to be a bit more marginal however, with around 30 kts or so to work with. So will be on the cusp as far as some convective storm organization. The primary threat looks to be strong, gusty winds. The secondary threat looks to be hail, with any stronger convective cores having the potential to have up to one inch hail. The biggest question at this point is overall coverage. Most of the CAMS have most of the potential coverage to the north and then across CT, then into eastern areas. SPC has just increased its slight risk area to include our entire CWA. The exact amount of coverage and the precise location of maximum coverage still remains in question for this afternoon into early this evening, but increasing overall instability along with old fine boundaries to work very well could increase the spatial extent of triggering of convection for this afternoon. The timing of convection looks to be from midday to the mid evening (with the highest potential for strong to severe convection from 2 pm to 9 pm).
  5. Brutal indeed. T of 83/Dewpoint of 70 here May be a surprise or two for some in the area this afternoon as scattered storms come through. Instability numbers are very impressive. SPC may decide to upgrade parts of New England to a slight risk in their update coming up
  6. Maybe? Mesoscale Discussion 0802 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0558 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Areas affected...eastern PA...northern NJ...and southern NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032258Z - 040030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms across eastern PA is likely to pose at least a marginal threat for strong winds this evening. Limited buoyancy in the wake of previous convection will likely support only limited coverage of storms, and a watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms over eastern PA has increased in convective intensity over the last hour. These storms are ongoing ahead of a shortwave trough over Quebec and the eastern US. Warm surface temperatures in the upper 70s and and low 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s F ahead of these storms are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet ahead of the shortwave trough is supportive of favorable deep-layer shear profiles with 40-50 kt of effective shear. The combination of instability and shear should support continued organization of the ongoing storm cluster for a few more hours across portions of New York and New Jersey. Damaging winds will be the primary threat given the linear nature of the ongoing storms and extended but straight line hodographs. Limited spatial coverage and the lack of greater instability due to previous convection will likely limit the threat. No watch is planned at this time.
  7. I hope so as parameters would be good. HRRR has a couple of runs in a row keeping most of them just north of the city. Just need one to make its way to us
  8. Here we go again lol. SE PA/South Jersey URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Delaware Far northeast Maryland Southern New Jersey Central to southeast Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A couple supercells should evolve southeast from central Pennsylvania and may consolidate into a small cluster that progresses towards the southern New Jersey coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of State College PA to 15 miles east northeast of Atlantic City NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
  9. Instability has recovered quickly and is on the rise. SE PA and Southern NJ are definitely under the gun tonight as those storms near Central PA get going and dive SE. Here in Northeast NJ, I'm just hoping to get clipped by that activity trying to get going in Western NY. Soundings are forecasted to be impressive here, but need to get an actual storm to deliver.
  10. Yep. Signs of activity too in Western PA which would be something to keep an eye for in SE PA, southern half of NJ. Soundings are impressive up here, but storms may miss us to our north lol. I'm keeping an eye on western NY state to see what develops and where it tracks.
  11. They may hold serve as main threat appears to be the storms for the evening rush. Latest HRRR (15z) holds serve, again showing that instability recovers for most of the area and fueling storms diving SE late afternoon/early evening. I'll believe it when I see it. Those in the southern half of NJ may be hit by another round of storms lol
  12. The morning debris is a massive bummer for those of us in North Jersey. @OHweather mentioned this last night, but the MCS over the midwest was consistently faster than model projections. The HRRR model trend below shows how much that debris hurts us. SE PA/Southern Half of NJ remains under the gun with the storms to our west. Right now the HRRR is signaling that instability tries to recover just in time for the evening storms, but I'm skeptical. I'll look toward western NY state and Northern PA this afternoon to see what pops off there.
  13. Same here. I'm not a fan of that initial activity out in front in North Central PA. The sooner that dies off the better. I am a bit concerned that recent HRRR runs have a bit more cloud cover going from west to east during the morning hours. We don't need full on sunshine the whole morning for the threat this afternoon to work, but obviously the less cloud cover, the better.
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