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About Ace

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  • Birthday 10/20/1993

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  1. Yep I have noticed. Would have liked to be in this position 24 hours ago lol. Got the individuals by any chance? Based off the crappy E-Wall maps, that one member has an impressive storm for us. Not surprisingly, it looks like it has the Canadian lobe a good amount more NE than the others .
  2. I wonder how much of that is due to that one member near the shore lol. Despite moving up in time, the spread in the GEFS has been increasing
  3. Yep. Wouldn't take much for a better event for the southern mid atlantic before the storm shuts east.With a 3 run trend like the one shown by the RGEM below, still some time for some decent changes.
  4. Canadian lobe shifting east with each run...probably too little too late. However, if more shifts in this direction occur, things could get interesting.
  5. UKMET has been trending south each run and isn't that close currently, but the reason why the UKMET is closer than the other models is that the Canadian lobe is further East and less involved. This allows height rises off the East Coast and doesn't allow for as much suppression. This is what the OP GFS showed a few days ago when it had it hit on our area. With no Canadian lobe, we would have to deal with marginal temps, but it would at least allow for a chance at a storm In any case, most of my focus is on the storm threat for the 12th
  6. Yep. @antmasiello_HM added that he thinks the ULL over the Western Atlantic is too far south as currently modeled for those north of the mason dixon line to cash in(which I would agree with). Still some time for that to change, but perhaps a good opportunity for those in the Mid Atlantic.
  7. It may be a bit hard for the storm to go up the coast if that ULL over the West Atlantic is as persistent and as strong as the CMC shows. The GFS is a bit less impressive with this feature allowing heights to rise off the east coast.
  8. Phasing in a lobe from Canada....while always enticing can certainly lead to model mayhem like the notorious case shown below haha . GFS Para(v16) and CMC like the northern steam interaction while the GFS v15 does not have any. In any case, certainly feels nice to have a decent threat within 7 days.
  9. Been rocking here for the last few hours. I just had a gust by me that I think may have been over 60 mph. We’ll see what happens the next few hours, but this storm is up there with March 2010 and Sandy for me in terms of wind.
  10. I think the HRRR has a good depiction of wind gusts for this evening (winds are in knots - shown below). I think most of the area will top out close to 60 mph, with a few isolated areas perhaps getting up to 70 mph? HRRR and 3k NAM have a nice line passing by NYC around 8-11z tomorrow. That can certainly bring down some nice gusts for the area.
  11. I agree. I like the potential setup a few days later. As a result of the Xmas system, op modeling has been signaling an anomalous ridge off of SE Canada which makes it way to Greenland before weakening. We don't really need a full sized block, but some transient ridging positioned favorably would help a lot. There is also a signal for some weak Western Canada ridging during this time too. In any case, appears to be an active pattern which lots of chances.
  12. Just sent my payment through Zelle. Great times tracking this storm!
  13. I forgot who mentioned it earlier but the radar certainly has a convective look to it. I’m cautiously optimistic at this point that we’ll see a bit more snow before any pivoting snow tomorrow morning. With these pockets of higher radar returns, there will be this back and forth between sleet and snow dependent on location, rates, etc.
  14. I bet it’s around 800mb currently. Later on it will shift to around 700mb.
  15. Hrrr has gotten a lot of flack, but it’s actually been somewhat decent.
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