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Ace

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About Ace

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  • Birthday 10/20/1993

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    Englewood, NJ

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  1. Not the most encouraging run for those looking for snow lol. Narrow band of snow.
  2. The 12z Euro appears to continue being on the southern end of the model consensus...
  3. Don't think it does. I think a couple of years ago it had a reputation of being over amped towards the end of its range, but I'm not sure if that is still valid. Here's a map of the 12z RGEM freezing rain amounts. Euro/RGEM has been consistently colder than the NAM/GFS, should be interesting to see if that continues.
  4. I don't know where you see 4 different critiques on here, but anything you see before your post is valid. There is slightly more confluence, the front end is further south, NYC gets mid 30's and rain, the 12z NAM is a tick colder than the 6z, and the 3km is colder.
  5. The NAM is still pretty far north compared to the other models especially the Euro.
  6. Impressive confluence in the North East on this run of the 12z NAM. 3 run trend shown below
  7. The problem has been for the last day or so that our Greenland NAO block retrogades too fast into a Central Canada ridge. That essentially reinforces the TPV off the NE coast. There is nothing really to "force" the storm up the eastern seaboard. Essentially we need either a northern stream shortwave to "dive in" at the last second or our Greenland block not to retrogade as fast so that the TPV is more out of the way. It's still very early and remains an impressive setup.
  8. There's a massive piece of the TPV spinning in the Northeast...I'm afraid our shortwave is not gonna come anywhere close to where we want it this run lol
  9. That's very interesting considering how bad the GFS thermals usually are.
  10. RGEM looks south and more colder as well...last frame
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