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Ace

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About Ace

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    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 10/20/1993

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    Englewood, NJ

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  1. Probably the best snow threat potential we'll have for awhile and maybe until next winter. After this potential 8 day threat, the Pacific looks terrible in the long range with a raging zonal jet.
  2. We had a few decent chances in late November/early December, but the pattern since then has been terrible.
  3. Yeah nothing really good on the horizon. Hoping that the MJO makes it to phase 8, 1, but very skeptical at this point.
  4. We definitely have a shot with the end of week threats , but as the ridges shifts west to over Alaska, modeling has been consistent on a Western trough/Eastern ridge pattern in the long range. The 12z GFS shows different waves of Atlantic/Polar ridging/blocking popping up in the long range which counters the Western trough. Safe to say its on its own and should not be taken seriously unless it gets more support.
  5. Looked to about 2.5 inches here in Englewood. Nice to finally get a small snow event!
  6. Yeah perhaps I should have been clearer in my initial post. With the image I posted, some may view those reds in Eastern Canada/Eastern US and immediately think "no chance". In any case, I'll try to be more deliberate with my words and image choices.
  7. Great point. Its been subtle, but the NAM has been slowly increasing mid level heights over our area. Thankfully the leading edge shouldn't have mid level temp issues.
  8. No cold air infusion to be found as vort gets stuck under higher than normal heights in SE Canada. However, that may not matter that much because its still January and not March. As such there is still enough cold air to make things interesting if the storm takes a good track especially for those on the interior.
  9. Yep. The 6z GEFS seems to have jumped to a much colder outlook for the Eastern US compared to its earlier runs, but it would be remiss if we didn't mention that the long range depiction of the Pacific on the GEFS have been slowly trending better for days now. Fun times ahead
  10. Threat is still worth watching especially for your area. I have no idea what the 12km NAM is doing at the surface considering 500mb was better. Meanwhile the 3km shifted decently northwest vs its 6z run.
  11. The long range NAM (yeah I know lol) seems to have the most favorable evolution aloft. A big issue with this potential threat is the low in SE Canada leading to marginal surface temps even though temps are cold aloft. The NAM keeps our 2 pieces of energy separate and emphasizes the lead shortwave more. As such surface temps are pretty cold on the NAM. As the below comparison of the Euro vs GFS vs Nam illustrates, the Euro looks likes its somewhere between the GFS and the NAM (much closer than the Nam tho)
  12. Yeah there is reason to be optimistic about the agreement on the Scandinavian ridge in the long range. As the 12z operational GFS shows, continuous wave breaks reinforce the Scandinavian ridge each time...Would make the tail end of January into February very interesting.
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