Ace - 33andrain Jump to content


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About Ace

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  • Birthday 10/20/1993

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    Englewood, NJ

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  1. Got home not too long ago. Highways and roads are a mess. Its really November 15th and we have a daytime snow event going on
  2. Just got back from a drive. Lots of trees by me have a lot of their leaves left. Another potential variable for many areas that can have large impacts.
  3. The lower levels are very cold. As the 3km Nam illustrates, between 650 and 750mb is where the problem is. Should be interesting to see how things progress over the next two days.
  4. Definitely seems to be not as amped as the GFS though.
  5. The FV3 is slightly more east than its 18Z run. Midlevel and surface temps are colder as a result. The GGEM was not too far away from a similar solution. Tricky setup but if we get a good track, a few inches (or more) is in the cards for many of us.
  6. Looks like the 0Z FV3 GFS should bring the goods. Through 78 hours, shortwave ejected out earlier and heights are lower out in front of it. Cautiously optimistic given the 0Z runs so far.
  7. GFS made a huge jump to the NAM and FV3 GFS though. I'll consider that a win.
  8. This Gfs run was a step in the right direction. It has backed off the idea of burying the Shortwave in the southwest which it did the previous two runs. It ejecting out earlier leads to lower heights off the East Coast.
  9. The 0Z GFS through 60 hours is looking good...the shortwave is not as Southwest as it was on the 18Z. Essentially it leads to it ejecting earlier and further east
  10. Ace

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Good to know. I believe I read somewhere else they had a negative bias, but forgot about it until you brought it up.
  11. Ace

    Isotherm’s Winter Outlook 2018-19

    A very impressive and detailed outlook. To have only one "strong" analog and put together a well organized winter outlook is a testament to your strength as a long range forecaster. Your previously summer and winter outlooks have been money as well
  12. Ace

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Should be interesting to see where this ends up...
  13. Yep. I'm interesting in seeing the para GFS run. Overall it has been more enthusiastic for a colder solution for this threat than the regular GFS.
  14. Ace

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Not too sure how accurate the GFS 10mb depictions are at longer lead times, but after the vortex temporarily goes to Siberia, it returns back to its original position and becomes increasingly more elongated as time passes. Keep in mind this is Day 11-15. I have become increasingly more interested in learning about stratospheric warming and I need to look into the topic much more.Time will tell if this little disruption will precede a much larger one in late November/early December.
  15. Ace

    October East Coast Storm

    High res models have been hinting at a convective line around the Jersey shore perhaps extending north/east of there around 7 to 10 AM. A line like this could bring down some of those higher winds in the upper levels. Should be interesting to see how it evolves.