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WxBillMoHill

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  1. WxBillMoHill

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml Not the best but you can see a contract between now and the 13-14 and 14-15 Global 150m depth-averaged temperature analysis, with data locations
  2. WxBillMoHill

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Some Upper levels lows are mixing that out right now. The +SSTA is shallow compared to 13-14 /14-15
  3. WxBillMoHill

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Latest from IRI Columbia: For those who have bought in to certain global models might want to take stock based on where we are and where we might be this winter. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
  4. WxBillMoHill

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Obviously data was sparse and there may be a better anomaly map out there but here's a quickie
  5. WxBillMoHill

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    October is warming up IO and Maritime area quite a bit?? I don't get the SST vs PRate I'm baffled by the big change in temp across CONUS. This model has coughed up a hairball before. This might be one of them
  6. WxBillMoHill

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    @brooklynwx99 Being from CA I really like what you have shown. ? I hope this analog doesn't change. 1998 combined with almost any other two +ENSO DJF will give one a look that is in the ballpark as above. If what you're analogging is a west based Nino that acts like an east based Nino, then bring it.
  7. WxBillMoHill

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    I've seen October 3.4 on twitter but the public site has yet to be updated. (I still see Sept.)
  8. WxBillMoHill

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Here is SSTA and Heat Content Anomalies from https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ These are from 7 most recent Modoki type +ENSO. The upper left is 2018 only to October 2nd . The rest flow January through December of respective years. The Heat Content this year vs SSTA is very different than the previous years shown. I know all you folks from the east coast know your cold / snow years burned in your brains. I'm from CA. All we care about is rain. We get the vast amount of it from December to March. The wet years burned in my brain. For most of you 2002-03 and 2014-15 were cold? 1994-95 and 2004-05 were very wet for CA. I haven't seen WxBell's Pioneer analog for DJF. What winters are going into their model? On the west coast we're all wishcasting 1994-95 2004-05 maybe 1977-78 Comments please. Also how do I get a hi rez pic posted? Sorry for being a noob
  9. WxBillMoHill

    WxBillMoHill

  10. WxBillMoHill

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Howdy I'm new here and interested mostly in teleconnections and seasonal forecasting. I'll get the hang of posting here eventually. Feel free to help me as I paddle around. Thanks https://www.33andrain.com/profile/973-bring-back-1962-63/ for the AAM stuff from WDT. That's a gold mine.
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