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About Weathergeek

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  • Birthday 08/11/1984

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  1. Just when Spring starts look what happens. JB thinks the last 10 days of the month into April could be interesting. The only reason I post the Euro is because of it's recent MJO success.
  2. Well it looks like after the first full weekend of March the jet extends to a zonal Pacific hose with nobody except Florida and the NW Caribbean below normal(and not by much).
  3. Seems like every year when we have a strong polar vortex it's when we're at the end of a positive QBO. Though 20021/02 was well into negative territory. Wonder what caused that year's +NAM?
  4. The only good news for February is that typically a +EPO Siberian ridge/Alaskan trough combo kills the southeast ridge(like whats modeled late month). But don't expect sustained cold but rather an El Ninoish pattern.
  5. The MJO lag effects of phase 5 and 6 eventually kill the SE ridge(especially 6) so if the Euro is right, this'l likely result down the road.
  6. Yeah a coupled stratospheric PV oriented like this does not favor a persistent -PNA/SE ridge alignment mid-month. Though by late month this looks to be more likely with phase 4 MJO + a -EAMT kicking into the atmosphere. So unless things change, a persistent SE ridge will rear it's ugly head for us in the southeast by then. Though to be in a positive note the lagged composites of phase 5/6/7 do show an eventual light at the end of the tunnel.
  7. I think there's disinformation floating on Twitter claiming that a +AMM in Feb means a torch. Yes at worst a warm north vs cold south conus wide would commence if AMM spikes off the charts which I'm afraid appears more likely. In either case it CANNOT lead to a cold West/Warm East Nina-esque alignment(that's what a -AAM would do this time of year). It eventually would lead towards HLB IF everything aligns properly(i.e. NH poleward +AMM transport as Zac mentioned on Twitter). I believe it EVENTUALLY will with the +QBO lag ending soon(at least by Feb.).
  8. At worst an +AMM spike should give us an El Nino-esque warm north vs cold south conus-wide 500mb setup.
  9. I remember last year Tom, David, Zac, and Tamara showing us how a +AMM/ Nino GWO Octaves skews the atmosphere in favor of HLB while -AMM/Nina GWO Octaves favor a strengthening vortex.
  10. Ask Micheal Ventrice. I found it on his Twitter feed.
  11. This added momentum should eventually help to flip the NAM especially once the 30mb +QBO lag ends towards Groundhogs day(I've heard after the 30mb QBO dips to 0 there's usually a 30 day lag before the Easterly Phase fully responds. It finally got to 0 by New Years Day!).
  12. Not only do we have the MJO likely on our side but we also have an incoming AMM/GWO spike that'll rotate in Nino attractor phases... I think this should help sustain WWB's near the dateline for awhile. Plus HM posted that tropical FT is starting to spike!
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