Jump to content

Weathergeek

Enthusiast
  • Content Count

    276
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

300 Excellent

About Weathergeek

  • Rank
    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 08/11/1984

Personal Information

  • Location
    Orlando, FL. USA

Recent Profile Visitors

421 profile views
  1. Just when Spring starts look what happens. JB thinks the last 10 days of the month into April could be interesting. The only reason I post the Euro is because of it's recent MJO success.
  2. Well it looks like after the first full weekend of March the jet extends to a zonal Pacific hose with nobody except Florida and the NW Caribbean below normal(and not by much).
  3. Seems like every year when we have a strong polar vortex it's when we're at the end of a positive QBO. Though 20021/02 was well into negative territory. Wonder what caused that year's +NAM?
  4. The only good news for February is that typically a +EPO Siberian ridge/Alaskan trough combo kills the southeast ridge(like whats modeled late month). But don't expect sustained cold but rather an El Ninoish pattern.
  5. The MJO lag effects of phase 5 and 6 eventually kill the SE ridge(especially 6) so if the Euro is right, this'l likely result down the road.
  6. Yeah a coupled stratospheric PV oriented like this does not favor a persistent -PNA/SE ridge alignment mid-month. Though by late month this looks to be more likely with phase 4 MJO + a -EAMT kicking into the atmosphere. So unless things change, a persistent SE ridge will rear it's ugly head for us in the southeast by then. Though to be in a positive note the lagged composites of phase 5/6/7 do show an eventual light at the end of the tunnel.
  7. I think there's disinformation floating on Twitter claiming that a +AMM in Feb means a torch. Yes at worst a warm north vs cold south conus wide would commence if AMM spikes off the charts which I'm afraid appears more likely. In either case it CANNOT lead to a cold West/Warm East Nina-esque alignment(that's what a -AAM would do this time of year). It eventually would lead towards HLB IF everything aligns properly(i.e. NH poleward +AMM transport as Zac mentioned on Twitter). I believe it EVENTUALLY will with the +QBO lag ending soon(at least by Feb.).
  8. At worst an +AMM spike should give us an El Nino-esque warm north vs cold south conus-wide 500mb setup.
  9. I remember last year Tom, David, Zac, and Tamara showing us how a +AMM/ Nino GWO Octaves skews the atmosphere in favor of HLB while -AMM/Nina GWO Octaves favor a strengthening vortex.
  10. Ask Micheal Ventrice. I found it on his Twitter feed.
  11. This added momentum should eventually help to flip the NAM especially once the 30mb +QBO lag ends towards Groundhogs day(I've heard after the 30mb QBO dips to 0 there's usually a 30 day lag before the Easterly Phase fully responds. It finally got to 0 by New Years Day!).
  12. Not only do we have the MJO likely on our side but we also have an incoming AMM/GWO spike that'll rotate in Nino attractor phases... I think this should help sustain WWB's near the dateline for awhile. Plus HM posted that tropical FT is starting to spike!
×
×
  • Create New...