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About Weathergeek

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  • Birthday 08/11/1984

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  1. Had the IO standing wave continued dominating December as originally forecasted by the models, Eric's call for another warm December would've been more likely correct.
  2. and if HM is right regarding the next -NAM state late month then models should gradually lower heights in the East during or just after this time period.
  3. Yeah he says a strongly + or strongly -QBO is detrimental to cold blocky patterns. Though ironically an extreme positive QBO in certain MQI phases I've heard can actually be beneficial to such. For instance 2013/14 featured a record positive QBO with an amplified phase 6 MQI. That eventually lead to an exploding -NPO that Winter that reached the Arctic domains. A phase 7 MQI would do the same thing but in the Atlantic theater! I've heard an extremely negative QBO would cause too much noise preventing the necessary forces from creating sustained blocking(like what happened Dec 2014).
  4. Well thank goodness the IOD standing wave is forecasted to greatly weaken!
  5. If I'm reading him correctly HM believes after an ephemeral AO/NAO spike blocking returns sometime mid-month. if not we briefly spike again(NAO domain) before a SC retrograde late month. Despite this Autumn being very detrimental to Greenland Blocking we've managed to get it now and then despite. Hmmm.:)
  6. Then all the pharmaceuticals will go out of business lol. I say let them!
  7. Actually quite the opposite lol. Oranges = +NAM Blues = -NAM.
  8. The GFS did an about face regarding the NAM. Yesterday... Today...
  9. odd that the GFS is slower and further west with the low. Usually it's the other way around.
  10. Looks reminiscent of mid-Dec. 2014 when a Nino +NPO pattern made every one coast to coast above average except Florida lol.
  11. I think the EPS is closer to the truth but still off. The trough I believe will be conus wide(as opposed to a western trough). Believe the MJO/+IOD forcing and +EAMT is why models are having fits(both together give mixed signals. This time of year +EAMT give +PNA while MJO phase 8/1 pavors -PNA. With a -NAO around Hudson Bay(I think) I believe this Thanksgiving will split the difference with conus wide troughing from coast to coast under north Canadian blocking. Think the Atlantic ridge will be much farther east. Bering Sea troughing usually does not favor SE ridging as far as I've heard.
  12. Had a feeling it would back away from it's torch call.
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