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About Weathergeek

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  • Birthday 08/11/1984

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  1. I think there's disinformation floating on Twitter claiming that a +AMM in Feb means a torch. Yes at worst a warm north vs cold south conus wide would commence if AMM spikes off the charts which I'm afraid appears more likely. In either case it CANNOT lead to a cold West/Warm East Nina-esque alignment(that's what a -AAM would do this time of year). It eventually would lead towards HLB IF everything aligns properly(i.e. NH poleward +AMM transport as Zac mentioned on Twitter). I believe it EVENTUALLY will with the +QBO lag ending soon(at least by Feb.).
  2. At worst an +AMM spike should give us an El Nino-esque warm north vs cold south conus-wide 500mb setup.
  3. I remember last year Tom, David, Zac, and Tamara showing us how a +AMM/ Nino GWO Octaves skews the atmosphere in favor of HLB while -AMM/Nina GWO Octaves favor a strengthening vortex.
  4. Ask Micheal Ventrice. I found it on his Twitter feed.
  5. This added momentum should eventually help to flip the NAM especially once the 30mb +QBO lag ends towards Groundhogs day(I've heard after the 30mb QBO dips to 0 there's usually a 30 day lag before the Easterly Phase fully responds. It finally got to 0 by New Years Day!).
  6. Not only do we have the MJO likely on our side but we also have an incoming AMM/GWO spike that'll rotate in Nino attractor phases... I think this should help sustain WWB's near the dateline for awhile. Plus HM posted that tropical FT is starting to spike!
  7. Over the Pacific warm pool and SE Asia the tropopause is 17.5km high in the sky. Which is a good thing since tropical stratospheric volcanic eruptions typically disfavor HLB but cause Summers to be cooler(as well as slow down Global Warming briefly). What you want is a northern high latitude volcano to spew thick ash well into the Strat. As what happened in the early Summer of 09 in Iceland. I believe that lead to two epic Winters of phenomenal Greenland Blocking(2009-10, 2010-11)!
  8. The Euro EPS is heading towards a -NAO for late Jan!
  9. On Dec. 15th the QBO 30mb was +1.66. The other day someone posted a chart showing the QBO 30mb descended to 0 towards New Years Day. If the descent continues unabated then by Jan 15th it'll probably be around -1 to -1.5ish? There's usually about a month long atmospheric lag when the 30mb QBO crossed phases(in this case from westerly to easterly).
  10. Usually a phase 6 MJO this time of year encourages HLB around Greenland(usually around 6-10 days after entry). RRM Models I believe are erroneously weakening the MJO in phase 6 because of the MJO wave exiting warm SST's around west Indonesia.
  11. 2019 had a record 281 spotless days! Incredible. Which means next Winter could be epic. Though like the last minimum, there are signs the next solar cycle will emerge by the mid 2020's.
  12. I think there's reason to be optimistic for Feb and March. The QBO just flipped to negative at the 30mb level(At one point it didn't look like it would go easterly til around Groundhog's Day). At least the first two/thirds of Jan will feel the lag of this positive QBO we just got out of. But as Hibbo said earlier, things I believe will eventually improve. I have a strong feeling Feb will be our coldest month!
  13. There's supposed to be tropical activity off the western coast of Australia. That's why RMM plots are oddly spiking in phase 4/5!
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