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About Weathergeek

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  1. Right now there really is no MJO wave as the +IOD has overwelmed it. But Noaa believes The MJO will strengthen and progress through the Indian Ocean. Yet...
  2. Around day 6/7, the GFS wants to pull a disturbance over the western GOM eastwards and develop it over the Bahama's by next week. I think that's unrealistic. More likely whatever develops will be pulled northwards over Texas/Louisiana.
  3. I see good signals for deep troughing in the East late month. JB thinks we could see a good nor'Easter towards months end. Don't worry it doesn't mean Winter will be a dud(at least the first half anyway).
  4. The bias-corrected Euro has the MJO entering phase 2 by the 15th. If the MJO stalls in the previous phase, would that mean we would get a lag 4 or 5 MJO 2 when it emerges there?
  5. Looks like Anthony continues to call for an early start to winter(if everything goes as planned)!
  6. ...and the CFS v2 has backed off from it's insane torchtober outlook back on Monday!:)
  7. What a change Atlanta will see! From highs this week in the mid-upper 90's to highs late next week in the 70's prehaps getting down into the mid 60's by next Friday! What a relief that'll be!!!
  8. Every time I think of a TC getting ingested into an extratropical system I think of The Body Snatchers or better yet The Thing! They become one of Them!
  9. Oh boy! Looks like models are starting to sniff out a big trough for next week! This makes plenty of sense when you factor in Typhoon Mitag and Hurricane Lorenzo in the mix. These two would tend to produce an amplified scenario something like this...
  10. A trade surge over the IO(Indian Ocean) could weaken(or at least cap) this Positive Indian Ocean Dipole(+IOD). The reason I think is the strongest part of the surge will take place over the greatest positive Sea Surface Temperature anomalies(in this episode). Had this trade surge happened further east over the western MT(Maritime Continent) I think we would be talking about a massive spike instead imo! Doesn't an IO EWB(Easterly Wind Burst) typically result in a Pacific WWB(Westerly Wind Burst)? Right now doesn't look like models are gun ho about it. Perhaps that'll change? Some think it could actually do the opposite to the +IOD. Hmmm...
  11. This means it'll completely injest into the jetstream instead of getting flong eastward as with yesterday's solutions.
  12. It appears models are trending back to a full jet stream phase of Lorenzo instead of a direct U.K. hit! Models have having fits on how to handle both typhoon Mitag and Lorenzo. Any unamplified solution beyond next week I would be skeptical given the expected wave train generated by these two storms!
  13. Looks like models are treading away from a direct U.K. hit!
  14. On an exciting note. It appears Florida's first taste of Fall is on the horizon! Pumpkin frappuccino weather Florida style!!!
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