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Weathergeek

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About Weathergeek

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  • Birthday 08/11/1984

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    Orlando, FL. USA

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  1. Phase 5 is bad in mid-late December but if I may be optimistic late month could be cold! Look what happens when phase 5 lags on. We get blocking and a colder turn!
  2. The MJO vp200 has the wave progressing past the MC but sometimes models are too fast with the progression. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.p
  3. He also said any late Dec. torch after a mid month arctic blast is BS.
  4. The Euro kills the MJO(unrealistically) while the GFS amplifies it around 120 degrees East. Convection around Indonesia/120 E favors +PNA/-NAO for Nov. and the first 2/3ds of December. It's not until the last third of Dec/around Xmas and NEW Years when long waves lengthen favoring a -PNA and an eastern ridge. Though as Eric tweeded something like a mid-month typhoon could destructively interfere with an Xmas torch. Also as Paul Roundy tweeted lagged Nina Octants in Late December could eventually morph into a powerful a Greenland block. Anthony M thinks we torch just after solstice
  5. If we can get the MJO into the MC by early Dec that'd be awesome! Fingers crossed!
  6. It appears he's calling for a good December only for a pattern change to give us an atrocious Jan. and Feb. Me personally I think Nov into and through Dec. will be like 85. But then eventually we turn warm especially Feb.
  7. I think it's Mid-range crises due to a monsoon gyre there.
  8. Looks like after the significant trough over the East next week and Zeta's likely phase with it, blocking will break down in early Nov. according to AM. But constructive interference should bring back the -NAO/+PNA by mid-Nov. like the last week of Oct. Now that models have consolidated on a full-latitude trough over the East early-mid next week(originally the GFS had it arriving as early this wed. which previous posters have demonstrated has joined the other models in delaying it til the last week of Oct.), our eyes should be focused on how Zeta will phase with the system.
  9. Confidence is increasing that a named storm will be picked up NEwards by a deep trough by the fourth week of Oct. How exactly it interacts with the trough or what path exactly it takes is still up in the air(up along the East Coast, off the coast, OTS, ect.). Also before that models are catching on to developing a named storm next week in the western Atlantic. I'm confident we'll have Epsilon and Zeta before Halloween!
  10. Well it appears La Nina and a -IOD could be knocking on our doorstep this Summer and Fall!
  11. Just when Spring starts look what happens. JB thinks the last 10 days of the month into April could be interesting. The only reason I post the Euro is because of it's recent MJO success.
  12. Well it looks like after the first full weekend of March the jet extends to a zonal Pacific hose with nobody except Florida and the NW Caribbean below normal(and not by much).
  13. Seems like every year when we have a strong polar vortex it's when we're at the end of a positive QBO. Though 20021/02 was well into negative territory. Wonder what caused that year's +NAM?
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