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Weathergeek

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About Weathergeek

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  • Birthday 08/11/1984

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  1. Although NOAA pulled the trigger and declared an El Nino on Valentine's Day. BOMM was unconvinced today and kept us at neutral(their standards are more stringent of course). But I believe they will eventually declare it in one of their advisories next month as the atmosphere completely aligns and behaves more like an El Nino.
  2. With the Pacific Pattern in place it *should recurve*. The bigger question is will it recurve and head well north and collide with an Aleutian Vortex or race to the east towards NA. Ideally we want it to do the former for best impacts.
  3. Even the EPS(what it's supposedly based on) destroys the SE ridge for good!
  4. I heard when the MQI is in phase 7 that encourages Greenland Blocking. Where's it at currently? Is it ready to enter phase 7 yet?
  5. Indeed the PNA flip is within ten days so this is the real deal and not pushed back nonsense lol!
  6. As far as I know the 50mb QBO is supposed to go positive thus the stratospheric equatorial westerlies should descend to the troposphere by early March. A typhoon will form and I think show the west Pacific Hadley Cell who's boss. This same storm should recurve around the 25thish with ramifications for us 6-10 days later give or take a few days. This storm won't cause the pattern change it'll simply give it a boost via Rossby Waves!
  7. The MJO has made it to the middle of Phase 8. Within ten days or so that should start pushing the Pacific block eastward eventually into a PNA ridge!
  8. Where can I find archive gfs Euro model 500mb for for past years like the 1993 superstorm for instance? I think E Wall once had it but I guess they took it down? Can't find it.
  9. I apologize. I wasn't complaining. Just wondering. It's all good.:)
  10. Do you think the MJO staying too long in phase 6 caused -AMM anomalies to pop up in the subtropics? If so, won't the MJO and divergence moving from Nina to Nino territories alter this moving forward?
  11. Is commenting shut off in the telleconnection thread? I can't post a comment there?
  12. I wonder what lagged composites is all about regarding the MJO? NOAA has a new chart featuring lags 0-5 and their respective geopotential height configuration for each phase.
  13. Is there still a chance you can you get robust blocking this way?
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