Jakkel138

All 3 ensembles still have the -NAO this morning.

25/20 at 8 PM. Always nice to watch a supercooled water bottle freeze instantly in the cold when you shake it.

I think that has a different meaning and could be explained further. Whether or not a colder than normal November correlates to a colder or warmer DJF depends on the major teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA, EPO etc). Too lazy to do extensive research but my guess is that 7 of those warmer than normal winters after a colder than normal November had a crappy upper air pattern for the winter, leading to a dud. So in other words whether or not cold Nov leads to a warmer or colder winter depends on the teleconnections. So yeah that basically means the correlation is almost useless

Very interesting, the EPS has a blocky look from around hour 150 through the end of the run.

A couple things here. Last year it was the weeklies that kept advertising a perfect pattern for weeks on end that never came to fruition. This year it's the relatively shorter range modeling (not out to 1000 hours but up to 15 days) showing the Greenland block pattern. Therefore I have reason to suspect that 2019-20 will end up better than last year. Fun times ahead. I haven't seen the weeklies showing a good pattern (unless I've been living under a rock this whole time). Still though, caveat emptor.

22/11

The air is gonna be dry as a friggin' BONE tomorrow. We will have to put many layers of lotion on our skin tomorrow. Forecast has highs in the mid 30s with humidity only in the upper 20s - low 30s percent.

Dewpoint has fallen into the low-mid 20s here. Currently 34 degrees. Icy roads tomorrow morning is a certainty. Honorable location for cold tonight is Oymyakon, Russia. They've been below zero for several days now, and their average high temperature in the coldest month is about 45 below zero.

SWEET sunset!

We got our first flakes today. No stickage as it was obviously too warm (check upper 60s yesterday and some 70s) but even that's impressive for this time of year. Even earlier than last year here. Has anyone noticed the trend for earlier snows as we enter the bottom of the solar cycle over the past couple years?

Coupled with the unbelievable snow cover extent this early in November I think this means business.

Somebody's gonna break a foot or even more in some spots.