Jakkel138

Yeah, pretty much it looks like the cold air gets reinforced after the potential late Nov systems, setting the stage for a higher and more widespread snow threat involving the coasts more. That's at least my 2 cents.

Arctic Oscillation just gonna TANK it! And it looks like the negative phase forecast is starting to verify. It will probably relax more towards neutral, but as long as the AO doesn't go raging positive, we should be alright

The 1st week of December has the highest potential for widespread region-wide snow for the I-95 major cities IMO.

Would be rain for many areas right along the coast unless there's enough cold air but impressive fantasy storm 312 hours away. Personally I think areas along and north of the fall line have the best chance for any significant accumulation unless something changes.

Wow.

Couldn't look better than that @PB GFI honestly. Euro now on board with the vast majority of December, possibly through Christmas cold and probably snowy look. I'd say we can lock in full on weenie mode very soon methinks

Snowmageddon pattern *intensifies*

Almost easy to tell where the r/s line is.

Wow!

Have to love this pattern. I mean, it shows a perfect ring of active STJ galore encircling the negative AO/NAO keeping it locked in the north pole lol.

Interesting is that the fantasy 384 hr snow has ensemble support. Obviously way too early but that's a pretty good look.

If we take a look at the new GEFS ensemble 500 mb height anomalies to about 360 hours out (not quite done initializing yet), the upper air pattern looks similar to the 500's leading up to the double snowmageddons in Feb 2010. My analysis on the preceding upper air patterns before the big snows is below. Compared with the 360 hour forecast. As you can see below, the GEFS forecast is similar to the re-analysis of feb 2010, albeit not an exact match because the 50/50 low is a little farther south than the above analog. But I believe the analog I am using is close enough to be compared to below. After about 90 hours, you can see the slow moving lower heights move across the pacific. Two troughs, actually. The two troughs appear to congeal and develop our split flow pattern near Calif. with weak/slight +PNA ridging above. Additionally, the retrograding scan ridge begins to move into the -NAO regions, at the same time as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) drifts into the negative phase, further developing the favorable pattern, and any pacific air will have a hard time flooding the continent with this blocking pattern. Meanwhile, the persistent trough in the eastern US links up with the lower heights that developed near the Gulf of Mexico, while the trough in the western US locks in, bringing much needed rain to wildfire-ridden California finally setting up that pattern I mentioned. This will deliver the goods if this verifies although it is far out. Ditto, we have not seen a favorable pattern in the mid-long range in a long time. I am fairly optimistic, and if this trend continues I am going to lock it in.

Near Goldsboro, MD

skeptical of any snow accumulation down here in eastern MD, across from the chessy bay. But not worrying because it's only November and it's this early in the year so that's a good sign.