Midllands Ice Age (UK) - 33andrain Jump to content

Midllands Ice Age (UK)

  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

37 Excellent

1 Follower

About Midllands Ice Age (UK)

  • Rank
  • Birthday 03/11/1944

Personal Information

  • Location
    Solihull, West Midlands, England

Recent Profile Visitors

40 profile views
  1. Midllands Ice Age  (UK)

    The Arctic Thread

    As promised I will peform a weekly review of the Arctic Ice... Net weekly gain about 100K KM2, around 300K Km2 below the 2010 average for this period. The last week has seen a reduction in the extreme cold over North America. This has affected the rapid ice gains being registered in this area. Hudson has actually lost (-4K KM2) and Baffin(+20K Km2) has only recovered in the last couple of days. The Atlantic front ice has also been pushed backwards and forwards and ended up with little change. Small gains were recorded in Kara, Beaufort and the ESS as they filled. Chukchi registered gains of around (+100K Km2) as the thicker ice from the Beaufort gyre extended eastwards into the region, although this pushed the ice already forming in Siberian side out of the way again. The first signs of ice formation in the SOO, Bering and Barents was observed during the week, around average in most cases for the date, and Baltic and Labrador Str, started to form, Ice also has just shown around the NW tip of Iceland. Temperatures were higher earlier on in the week, with DMI first of all rising, but falling again in the last 2 days. So it looks as if (as expected) the ice has fallen from the extreme levels of last week, but it is now in a reasonable position, and I expect some consolidation next week towards a respectable 6th to 8th position. The latest from Jaxa shows the fall from last week - and demonstrated by the years graphs - So 2018 currently in 9th (down from 13th last week), but is still above the 6-8th range expected. This next week looks to be the defining week for the 2018 season. Another 'low' week will see any notions of an ice recovery, a good week will still leave the option open. MIA(UK)
  2. Midllands Ice Age  (UK)

    The Arctic Thread

    A quick update of the ice changes over the last week. The Arctic sea ice has expanded throughout the last week, and is now (according to JAXA) in the 13th of the 14th during the period since 2004 in the satellite era. The rapid ice growth has continued, mainly in the Hudson Bay and closely associated regions, whereas the regrowth elsewhere has been unremarkable, after the sudden bursts of growth in the ESS and Laptev 2 weeks ago, with Kara then following on behind. The regrowth in Kara is now almost complete, and the attention will turn to the peripheral regions of Barents, Bering, Greenland, Baffin and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) for the next phase of growth. I supply the latest JAXA data as to represent the current status - (from ASIF) and for the ongoing charts - The question that must be asked as whether or not we can continue with the ongoing melt rate over the next 4 weeks. There are still signs that the Arctic is still cooling both inside the Arctic circle and outside (above 67 degrees) as measured by the DMI and Climate Reanalyser charts - I must admit that I expect the rate to fall somewhat so that we end up somewhere in the 6th - 8th positions unless conditions change. This will then hide the most remarkable recovery we have seen in Arctic Ice. Could it be that the fact that the ice refused to refreeze for so long at the start of the season, enabled more heat to escape and hence result in a quicker refreeze?. MIA(UK)
  3. Midllands Ice Age  (UK)

    The Arctic Thread

    With regard to the above topic of subterranean activity it has recently been identified that at least 2 volcanos appear to be active in the Barents Sea region. The following Google earth graph indicates 2 areas with very abnormally high temperatures and also large amounts of CO2 and CH4 being discharged. Could the following have anything to do with polar ocean warming via both the ocean temperatures and AGW effect.? It looks as if warm water is 'boiling/bubbling' to the surface in 2 locations around Svalbard. This will prevent ice forming in these areas. Examine the following Earth map showing ocean waves/currents and temperatures in the region. Look at locations 77.95N and 5.48E for a 'mad' surface temperature of 19.4C, or even 75.89N and 31.04E where it reaches 10.1C. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=15.54,74.18,1604/loc=31.038,75.888 In addition over on the ASIF thread they have been following a patch of revolving ice on the edge of the ice as it approaches the NE coast of Svalbard for a couple of years. What we do not know is whether these features are relatively recent, or whether they have been active for some while and can hence be discounted. Anyone know if the Google Earth has an 'archive' facility along with the Subterranean options? Without doubt there are many underwater areas with magma and movement of the earth's crust beneath. We know that there is a ridge running up through the Barents and up into the Arctic, it being the extension of the Icelandic mid Atlantic ridge.. It could well be that the 'weak solar' does have an effect, but there are people who know much more than I, and the above Google Map shows how 'neatly' the large volcano sits between the Atlantic jet current passing around Norway and the return current passing down the east coast of Greenland. It clearly is an area where more research needs to be carried out. I will perform and report a weekly review into the weekly current ice situation.... tomorrow. MIA(UK)
  4. Midllands Ice Age  (UK)

    The Arctic Thread

    Re Paragraph 1 above... I was about to come back this week with more detail on two of the points that you raise. (yes it was me who suggested that maybe something has changed in the general arctic with regard to the movement of the ice in the Arctic). First of all can I say what a fantastic mine of information is contained within the link you provided. It details not only the Beaufort Gyre details but the research being carried out in the Arctic over the last 30 - 40 years. It also provides a history of man's attempts to 'conquer'. and understand the Polar environment, and it contains many scientific references. It certainly would benefit the portal if it is not there already. My post supplying my reply to your query will again be based upon the DMI thickness charts... If I can display todays data.... It may be necessary to 'zoom in' a bit on the area just to the North of Central Greenland. There you can find a small bit of 'green' ice. It is a small patch of thinner ice. Why is it of interest? Well it has been around this area for the last several months. It has shown no sign of moving into Fram whilst the ice to the west of it tends to move towards Beaufort (and the gyre) . I have already noticed and reported that Fram had virtually closed down since the SST in February. Rather than showing all the reports can I ask that you access the DMI site and move back through the data using the 30 (or 1 day) buttons. It is clear that the only ice moving into Fram this year has been that which originated around Svalbard, and as we all know that is not in plentiful supply at the moment. Other years, with large export via Fram, show the ice movement anticlockwise from Beaufort along the North Greenland coast, (with only a small amount joining from Svalbard) and then out through Fram. This process is described in the link that SROC supplied as being measured by the AOO (Arctic Ocean Oscillation) index. Can I recommend that people read the section entitled Arctic Ocean Oscillation Index in the Results section. The two movements are described as being caused by the Anticyclonic Circulation Regime (ACCR) and the Cyclonic Circulation Regime (CCR). It seems as though we have been in a ACCR dominated flow for a few years (1997?). I will copy in the Introduction section see the end of my post, but it is all worth reading. Could it be that there is little more ice that can now be exported via FRAM under this clearly ACCR event? Whereas during CCR (with an anticlockwise momentum) events we can expect the movement of the ice in the Beaufort Gyre to be passed across and into Fram. Conversely, during ACCR events the ice is 'at risk' of being melted out by any warm waters coming into the Bering Straits area. This year the sea temperatures in Bering have been falling quite quickly and the latest report shows this - (from ASIF) So quite a rapid temperature drop in the Chukchi and Bering area of about 2 - 3C. So we appear, potentially, to be in a 'good' situation at the moment as regards ice export, but will it last? I will close this post now and leave you with the reference to the Beaufort Analysis (from the linked report), and I will open a further post on the subject of subterranean activities in the Arctic Ocean..... Quote Print PDF Enlarge Image Figure 1 Illustration of the AOO index definition and physical meaning. Annual simulated sea surface heights (cm, contour interval is 10 cm) and ice drift (blue arrows) under CCR (left) and ACCR (right) wind forcing. Red dotted isolines depict SLP (hPa, contour interval is 2 hPa). The red arrows in the yellow box show how gradients of sea surface heights (AOO indices) are calculated: differences between sea surface heights in the center (A) and periphery of the closed circulation (B) are divided by the distance between chosen sea surface height isolines. Note that AOO index is non-dimensional. Anticyclonic circulation has positive sea surface height gradients (AOO indices) while cyclonic circulation has negative gradients (AOO indices). Enlarge Image Figure 2 Simulated annual sea surface heights (black contour lines, cm) and wind-forced ice drift component (blue arrows) after 1993. The sea surface height contour interval is 5 cm. The value of the AOO index is shown in the top right corner of all panels. Annual sea surface heights and wind-forced ice drift patterns for 1946–1993 are shown in Proshutinsky and Johnson [1997]. Enlarge Image Figure 3 AOO index and circulation regimes. Panels (a) and (b) show typical annual distributions of SLP and surface winds for cyclonic and anticyclonic atmospheric circulation regimes, respectively; red arrows show prevailing cyclone tracks, summarized from panel (c). (c) Greenland Sea cyclone trajectories for 1949–2002 (this is fig. 2 from Sortenberg and Walsh [2008]).White dots indicate the start of each cyclone trajectory and the white and grey lines show two different paths identified by cluster analysis and well supporting SLP distributions corresponding to circulation regimes shown in (a) and (b), respectively. This means that annual SLP distribution patterns express statistics of cyclone counts—prevailing cyclone trajectories. (d) 1946–2013 mean wind-forced simulated sea surface height (SSH) distribution. (e) First EOF mode (48% of the variance) of the annual sea surface height pattern. (f ) AOO indices. The thick black line depicts the 5-year-running-mean time series of the AOO index derived manually following the approach of Proshutinsky & Johnson [1997] and definition provided above. Positive (blue bars) AOO indices correspond to years with ACCRs and negative (red) bars show cyclonic regimes. Coefficients of the annual first EOF mode of the simulated wind-driven sea surface heights as the 5-year running mean are shown as the blue solid line. GSA years are shown as shaded boxes. (g) Spectra of the AOO calculated from the timeseries of the detrended annual AOO index from 1946 to 2013 using the Tukey window with band width 0.279 rad yr−1. The vertical blue bar denotes the 95% confidence interval of the peak with corresponding frequency ω =0.551 rad yr−1 (11.4 years). End quote Needs for an Arctic Ocean Index There has long been motivation to find the basic mechanisms that cause the observed changes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system (e.g. Bradley & Miller,1972; Budyko,1977; van Loon & Rogers, 1978; Jones et al., 1986; Wadhams, 1994; Dickson, 1999; Vinnikov et al., 1999; Hakkinen and Geiger, 2000) at decadal and shorter time scales. Climate indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; e.g.Walker, 1924; Hurrell et al., 2003), the Arctic Ocean Oscillation (AOO; e.g. Proshutinsky & Johnson, 1997; Proshutinsky et al., 1999, 2002; Dukhovskoy et al., 2004) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO; Thompson and Wallace, 1998) have been constructed to characterize complex climate processes and explain past variability. However, attempts to predict the NAO and AO cycles were not successful (e.g. Wunsch, 1999; Stephenson et al., 2000; Dickson et al. 2000). Compared to the NAO and AO, the AOO index, defined on the basis of a wind-driven simulated sea-surface height field across the Arctic (Proshutinsly and Johnson, 1997) is a more Arctic-centric index. The index is a measure of the intensity and sense (clockwise/anticyclonic or counterclockwise/cyclonic) of the Arctic Ocean wind-driven circulation. Below, we explain the mechanisms regulating changes in the Arctic circulation regimes and environmental parameters at decadal time scales using this index. Over the period 1948-1996 the AOO has been shown to be the most appropriate index to capture variability in key Arctic environmental parameters (Proshutinsky et al., 1999; Polyakov et al., 1999; Overland, 2009).
  5. Midllands Ice Age  (UK)

    The Arctic Thread

    BB (David)… Thanks again for another fantastic post. The information you display and produce is the best I have seen. This really is an update from me, but one in which I would like to look at what has happened over the 8 -10 years in more detail, in order to see to see what has caused the major impact to multiyear ice. First of all the current extent (and area) continues to improve (relative to recent years) apace. Kara is still filling in quickly, keeping the NH daily gains quite high, and now (despite my, and others concerns) the Arctic perimeter areas such as Bering, Chukchi and very recently Barents appear to be gaining momentum, and keeping the comparative rates for 2018 refreeze looking very good. From being last 6 weeks ago the extent seems to be somewhere between 8th and 10th depending upon the measure and ice service chosen. Hudson and Baffin as previously discussed are now in full ice growth mode, and Hudson could fill up very quickly now. Can the ice continue on this more rapid growth path? At the moment the refreeze is at similar rate to these reported in the 20th century. though clearly not in such a solid position. I will not dwell too much on the above as other forums deal with this on a day to day situation. What I wanted to do in this post was to use the same techniques I used for displaying the changes to ice thickness in the last year in my previous post, which clearly showed the ice development to be 'stronger' in the Arctic above 80 degrees this year, and therefore for its possible effects for the future of the pack. By examining the last 10years it is possible to see why we have ended up with the poor state of multi year ice we have today. First of all I have chosen a pretty random recent date - 15th November 2018 - as the current position. As can be seen the area of increased ice thickness I discussed in my previous post is still enlargening and becoming also thicker. Also note the increased yellow in the Arctic circle. The Arctic now looks reasonably healthy in the central region, (the vital area for multi year ice to survive), although not so good in Barents (where ice never survives in the summer), and Bering is now about average for the last 10 years (as you will see), and Hudson and Baffin are above average. Going back to 2017, and further back you will see how the ice has fluctuated over the last 3 years (back to 2015), but has never been 'thick' in the Central/East areas. 2017 - much larger 'deep blue' areas in the central, but a thick area up in the ESS, which was the precursor for the central ice in 2018. Bering, Hudson, Baffin worse than this year, but slightly stronger in Barents, and around Svalbard. 2016 - much worse than 2018 in all areas! 2015 - similar extents to this year with a 'nice' patch in the Central patch of thick ice, but also with a massive areas of very shallow ice right over the pole, which appears to be the ' left over and not recovered ice' from the poor state of the ice in the central area in 2014. 2014 - Very strong ice over the Greenland coastline (last of the real multi year ice), but a huge 'open' gulf on the Siberian side, which would allow rapid melt the following year (2015 summer), but the extents, particularly around Barents are looking good, although Bering is 'suspect' and wide open. 2013 - Looks very similar to 2018 in extent terms, but with a much larger amount of multiyear ice in and around the Central Arctic pack 2012 - Large portions of thick multi year ice in the Greenland central regions, but Barents is a car crash, and Hudson and Baffin are also down. 2011 - Extents lower than todays, but the central ice looks very 'stable'. 2010 - Extents a bit lower than 2018, but central ice looks thicker/stronger than today. 2008 - A very poor Central ice pack following on from the 2007 rapid drop, but the extents seem to be similar to today. 2007 -Extent lower in all areas, and a massive 'hole' has eaten into the ice from the Bering side. 2006 - Similar extents as compared with today apart from Hudson and Baffin, which were much lower in extent. So. it looks as if 2 major events hit the central ice pack and both occurred from the side of the Bering Sea. One in 2006-2007 and the other in 2013-2014. Now we know that the great Arctic cyclone hit the ice in 2013 -2014 year, and this appears to have caused the chaos in the 2015 -16 winter seasons, but a recovery seems to be taking place at the moment. Did we have a similar event in 2006 - 2007? In each instance, however, the ice seemed to be recovering. It does not appear that temperature is the defining factor for the ice regrowth. It is clearly very important, but the ice over the last few years has shown 'regrowth' (when it is allowed to), despite high Arctic temperatures. These two occurrences explain the precipitous drop in the multi year ice in the period of 2005-7, and again more recently, as seen in multi year ice graph above. I think that it is asking too much for the ice to recover all its multiyear ice, as it possibly will require a spell of 10 -15 years without a major 'disaster' year. To do this we will need either a cessation of AGSW(?), or a major change in the atmospheric patterns which have been driving 'ice melt' events into the Arctic, maybe even both. However the Arctic does show signs of attempting to recover on each occasion, so perhaps all is not quite lost just yet!
  6. Midllands Ice Age  (UK)

    Interactive Area for Members - Feedback and Comments

    David Have just found the portal and I am looking around. My first day with a bit of time to search around and so far looks excellent. Dave
  7. Midllands Ice Age  (UK)

    Midllands Ice Age (UK)