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Midllands Ice Age (UK)

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About Midllands Ice Age (UK)

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  • Birthday 03/11/1944

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    Solihull, West Midlands, England

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  1. As promised I will peform a weekly review of the Arctic Ice... Net weekly gain about 100K KM2, around 300K Km2 below the 2010 average for this period. The last week has seen a reduction in the extreme cold over North America. This has affected the rapid ice gains being registered in this area. Hudson has actually lost (-4K KM2) and Baffin(+20K Km2) has only recovered in the last couple of days. The Atlantic front ice has also been pushed backwards and forwards and ended up with little change. Small gains were recorded in Kara, Beaufort and the ESS as they filled. Chukchi registered gains of around (+100K Km2) as the thicker ice from the Beaufort gyre extended eastwards into the region, although this pushed the ice already forming in Siberian side out of the way again. The first signs of ice formation in the SOO, Bering and Barents was observed during the week, around average in most cases for the date, and Baltic and Labrador Str, started to form, Ice also has just shown around the NW tip of Iceland. Temperatures were higher earlier on in the week, with DMI first of all rising, but falling again in the last 2 days. So it looks as if (as expected) the ice has fallen from the extreme levels of last week, but it is now in a reasonable position, and I expect some consolidation next week towards a respectable 6th to 8th position. The latest from Jaxa shows the fall from last week - and demonstrated by the years graphs - So 2018 currently in 9th (down from 13th last week), but is still above the 6-8th range expected. This next week looks to be the defining week for the 2018 season. Another 'low' week will see any notions of an ice recovery, a good week will still leave the option open. MIA(UK)
  2. A quick update of the ice changes over the last week. The Arctic sea ice has expanded throughout the last week, and is now (according to JAXA) in the 13th of the 14th during the period since 2004 in the satellite era. The rapid ice growth has continued, mainly in the Hudson Bay and closely associated regions, whereas the regrowth elsewhere has been unremarkable, after the sudden bursts of growth in the ESS and Laptev 2 weeks ago, with Kara then following on behind. The regrowth in Kara is now almost complete, and the attention will turn to the peripheral regions of Barents, Bering, Greenland, Baffin and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) for the next phase of growth. I supply the latest JAXA data as to represent the current status - (from ASIF) and for the ongoing charts - The question that must be asked as whether or not we can continue with the ongoing melt rate over the next 4 weeks. There are still signs that the Arctic is still cooling both inside the Arctic circle and outside (above 67 degrees) as measured by the DMI and Climate Reanalyser charts - I must admit that I expect the rate to fall somewhat so that we end up somewhere in the 6th - 8th positions unless conditions change. This will then hide the most remarkable recovery we have seen in Arctic Ice. Could it be that the fact that the ice refused to refreeze for so long at the start of the season, enabled more heat to escape and hence result in a quicker refreeze?. MIA(UK)
  3. With regard to the above topic of subterranean activity it has recently been identified that at least 2 volcanos appear to be active in the Barents Sea region. The following Google earth graph indicates 2 areas with very abnormally high temperatures and also large amounts of CO2 and CH4 being discharged. Could the following have anything to do with polar ocean warming via both the ocean temperatures and AGW effect.? It looks as if warm water is 'boiling/bubbling' to the surface in 2 locations around Svalbard. This will prevent ice forming in these areas. Examine the following Earth map showing ocean waves/currents and temperatures in the region. Look at locations 77.95N and 5.48E for a 'mad' surface temperature of 19.4C, or even 75.89N and 31.04E where it reaches 10.1C. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=15.54,74.18,1604/loc=31.038,75.888 In addition over on the ASIF thread they have been following a patch of revolving ice on the edge of the ice as it approaches the NE coast of Svalbard for a couple of years. What we do not know is whether these features are relatively recent, or whether they have been active for some while and can hence be discounted. Anyone know if the Google Earth has an 'archive' facility along with the Subterranean options? Without doubt there are many underwater areas with magma and movement of the earth's crust beneath. We know that there is a ridge running up through the Barents and up into the Arctic, it being the extension of the Icelandic mid Atlantic ridge.. It could well be that the 'weak solar' does have an effect, but there are people who know much more than I, and the above Google Map shows how 'neatly' the large volcano sits between the Atlantic jet current passing around Norway and the return current passing down the east coast of Greenland. It clearly is an area where more research needs to be carried out. I will perform and report a weekly review into the weekly current ice situation.... tomorrow. MIA(UK)
  4. Re Paragraph 1 above... I was about to come back this week with more detail on two of the points that you raise. (yes it was me who suggested that maybe something has changed in the general arctic with regard to the movement of the ice in the Arctic). First of all can I say what a fantastic mine of information is contained within the link you provided. It details not only the Beaufort Gyre details but the research being carried out in the Arctic over the last 30 - 40 years. It also provides a history of man's attempts to 'conquer'. and understand the Polar environment, and it contains many scientific references. It certainly would benefit the portal if it is not there already. My post supplying my reply to your query will again be based upon the DMI thickness charts... If I can display todays data.... It may be necessary to 'zoom in' a bit on the area just to the North of Central Greenland. There you can find a small bit of 'green' ice. It is a small patch of thinner ice. Why is it of interest? Well it has been around this area for the last several months. It has shown no sign of moving into Fram whilst the ice to the west of it tends to move towards Beaufort (and the gyre) . I have already noticed and reported that Fram had virtually closed down since the SST in February. Rather than showing all the reports can I ask that you access the DMI site and move back through the data using the 30 (or 1 day) buttons. It is clear that the only ice moving into Fram this year has been that which originated around Svalbard, and as we all know that is not in plentiful supply at the moment. Other years, with large export via Fram, show the ice movement anticlockwise from Beaufort along the North Greenland coast, (with only a small amount joining from Svalbard) and then out through Fram. This process is described in the link that SROC supplied as being measured by the AOO (Arctic Ocean Oscillation) index. Can I recommend that people read the section entitled Arctic Ocean Oscillation Index in the Results section. The two movements are described as being caused by the Anticyclonic Circulation Regime (ACCR) and the Cyclonic Circulation Regime (CCR). It seems as though we have been in a ACCR dominated flow for a few years (1997?). I will copy in the Introduction section see the end of my post, but it is all worth reading. Could it be that there is little more ice that can now be exported via FRAM under this clearly ACCR event? Whereas during CCR (with an anticlockwise momentum) events we can expect the movement of the ice in the Beaufort Gyre to be passed across and into Fram. Conversely, during ACCR events the ice is 'at risk' of being melted out by any warm waters coming into the Bering Straits area. This year the sea temperatures in Bering have been falling quite quickly and the latest report shows this - (from ASIF) So quite a rapid temperature drop in the Chukchi and Bering area of about 2 - 3C. So we appear, potentially, to be in a 'good' situation at the moment as regards ice export, but will it last? I will close this post now and leave you with the reference to the Beaufort Analysis (from the linked report), and I will open a further post on the subject of subterranean activities in the Arctic Ocean..... Quote Print PDF Enlarge Image Figure 1 Illustration of the AOO index definition and physical meaning. Annual simulated sea surface heights (cm, contour interval is 10 cm) and ice drift (blue arrows) under CCR (left) and ACCR (right) wind forcing. Red dotted isolines depict SLP (hPa, contour interval is 2 hPa). The red arrows in the yellow box show how gradients of sea surface heights (AOO indices) are calculated: differences between sea surface heights in the center (A) and periphery of the closed circulation (B) are divided by the distance between chosen sea surface height isolines. Note that AOO index is non-dimensional. Anticyclonic circulation has positive sea surface height gradients (AOO indices) while cyclonic circulation has negative gradients (AOO indices). Enlarge Image Figure 2 Simulated annual sea surface heights (black contour lines, cm) and wind-forced ice drift component (blue arrows) after 1993. The sea surface height contour interval is 5 cm. The value of the AOO index is shown in the top right corner of all panels. Annual sea surface heights and wind-forced ice drift patterns for 1946–1993 are shown in Proshutinsky and Johnson [1997]. Enlarge Image Figure 3 AOO index and circulation regimes. Panels (a) and (b) show typical annual distributions of SLP and surface winds for cyclonic and anticyclonic atmospheric circulation regimes, respectively; red arrows show prevailing cyclone tracks, summarized from panel (c). (c) Greenland Sea cyclone trajectories for 1949–2002 (this is fig. 2 from Sortenberg and Walsh [2008]).White dots indicate the start of each cyclone trajectory and the white and grey lines show two different paths identified by cluster analysis and well supporting SLP distributions corresponding to circulation regimes shown in (a) and (b), respectively. This means that annual SLP distribution patterns express statistics of cyclone counts—prevailing cyclone trajectories. (d) 1946–2013 mean wind-forced simulated sea surface height (SSH) distribution. (e) First EOF mode (48% of the variance) of the annual sea surface height pattern. (f ) AOO indices. The thick black line depicts the 5-year-running-mean time series of the AOO index derived manually following the approach of Proshutinsky & Johnson [1997] and definition provided above. Positive (blue bars) AOO indices correspond to years with ACCRs and negative (red) bars show cyclonic regimes. Coefficients of the annual first EOF mode of the simulated wind-driven sea surface heights as the 5-year running mean are shown as the blue solid line. GSA years are shown as shaded boxes. (g) Spectra of the AOO calculated from the timeseries of the detrended annual AOO index from 1946 to 2013 using the Tukey window with band width 0.279 rad yr−1. The vertical blue bar denotes the 95% confidence interval of the peak with corresponding frequency ω =0.551 rad yr−1 (11.4 years). End quote Needs for an Arctic Ocean Index There has long been motivation to find the basic mechanisms that cause the observed changes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system (e.g. Bradley & Miller,1972; Budyko,1977; van Loon & Rogers, 1978; Jones et al., 1986; Wadhams, 1994; Dickson, 1999; Vinnikov et al., 1999; Hakkinen and Geiger, 2000) at decadal and shorter time scales. Climate indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; e.g.Walker, 1924; Hurrell et al., 2003), the Arctic Ocean Oscillation (AOO; e.g. Proshutinsky & Johnson, 1997; Proshutinsky et al., 1999, 2002; Dukhovskoy et al., 2004) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO; Thompson and Wallace, 1998) have been constructed to characterize complex climate processes and explain past variability. However, attempts to predict the NAO and AO cycles were not successful (e.g. Wunsch, 1999; Stephenson et al., 2000; Dickson et al. 2000). Compared to the NAO and AO, the AOO index, defined on the basis of a wind-driven simulated sea-surface height field across the Arctic (Proshutinsly and Johnson, 1997) is a more Arctic-centric index. The index is a measure of the intensity and sense (clockwise/anticyclonic or counterclockwise/cyclonic) of the Arctic Ocean wind-driven circulation. Below, we explain the mechanisms regulating changes in the Arctic circulation regimes and environmental parameters at decadal time scales using this index. Over the period 1948-1996 the AOO has been shown to be the most appropriate index to capture variability in key Arctic environmental parameters (Proshutinsky et al., 1999; Polyakov et al., 1999; Overland, 2009).
  5. BB (David)… Thanks again for another fantastic post. The information you display and produce is the best I have seen. This really is an update from me, but one in which I would like to look at what has happened over the 8 -10 years in more detail, in order to see to see what has caused the major impact to multiyear ice. First of all the current extent (and area) continues to improve (relative to recent years) apace. Kara is still filling in quickly, keeping the NH daily gains quite high, and now (despite my, and others concerns) the Arctic perimeter areas such as Bering, Chukchi and very recently Barents appear to be gaining momentum, and keeping the comparative rates for 2018 refreeze looking very good. From being last 6 weeks ago the extent seems to be somewhere between 8th and 10th depending upon the measure and ice service chosen. Hudson and Baffin as previously discussed are now in full ice growth mode, and Hudson could fill up very quickly now. Can the ice continue on this more rapid growth path? At the moment the refreeze is at similar rate to these reported in the 20th century. though clearly not in such a solid position. I will not dwell too much on the above as other forums deal with this on a day to day situation. What I wanted to do in this post was to use the same techniques I used for displaying the changes to ice thickness in the last year in my previous post, which clearly showed the ice development to be 'stronger' in the Arctic above 80 degrees this year, and therefore for its possible effects for the future of the pack. By examining the last 10years it is possible to see why we have ended up with the poor state of multi year ice we have today. First of all I have chosen a pretty random recent date - 15th November 2018 - as the current position. As can be seen the area of increased ice thickness I discussed in my previous post is still enlargening and becoming also thicker. Also note the increased yellow in the Arctic circle. The Arctic now looks reasonably healthy in the central region, (the vital area for multi year ice to survive), although not so good in Barents (where ice never survives in the summer), and Bering is now about average for the last 10 years (as you will see), and Hudson and Baffin are above average. Going back to 2017, and further back you will see how the ice has fluctuated over the last 3 years (back to 2015), but has never been 'thick' in the Central/East areas. 2017 - much larger 'deep blue' areas in the central, but a thick area up in the ESS, which was the precursor for the central ice in 2018. Bering, Hudson, Baffin worse than this year, but slightly stronger in Barents, and around Svalbard. 2016 - much worse than 2018 in all areas! 2015 - similar extents to this year with a 'nice' patch in the Central patch of thick ice, but also with a massive areas of very shallow ice right over the pole, which appears to be the ' left over and not recovered ice' from the poor state of the ice in the central area in 2014. 2014 - Very strong ice over the Greenland coastline (last of the real multi year ice), but a huge 'open' gulf on the Siberian side, which would allow rapid melt the following year (2015 summer), but the extents, particularly around Barents are looking good, although Bering is 'suspect' and wide open. 2013 - Looks very similar to 2018 in extent terms, but with a much larger amount of multiyear ice in and around the Central Arctic pack 2012 - Large portions of thick multi year ice in the Greenland central regions, but Barents is a car crash, and Hudson and Baffin are also down. 2011 - Extents lower than todays, but the central ice looks very 'stable'. 2010 - Extents a bit lower than 2018, but central ice looks thicker/stronger than today. 2008 - A very poor Central ice pack following on from the 2007 rapid drop, but the extents seem to be similar to today. 2007 -Extent lower in all areas, and a massive 'hole' has eaten into the ice from the Bering side. 2006 - Similar extents as compared with today apart from Hudson and Baffin, which were much lower in extent. So. it looks as if 2 major events hit the central ice pack and both occurred from the side of the Bering Sea. One in 2006-2007 and the other in 2013-2014. Now we know that the great Arctic cyclone hit the ice in 2013 -2014 year, and this appears to have caused the chaos in the 2015 -16 winter seasons, but a recovery seems to be taking place at the moment. Did we have a similar event in 2006 - 2007? In each instance, however, the ice seemed to be recovering. It does not appear that temperature is the defining factor for the ice regrowth. It is clearly very important, but the ice over the last few years has shown 'regrowth' (when it is allowed to), despite high Arctic temperatures. These two occurrences explain the precipitous drop in the multi year ice in the period of 2005-7, and again more recently, as seen in multi year ice graph above. I think that it is asking too much for the ice to recover all its multiyear ice, as it possibly will require a spell of 10 -15 years without a major 'disaster' year. To do this we will need either a cessation of AGSW(?), or a major change in the atmospheric patterns which have been driving 'ice melt' events into the Arctic, maybe even both. However the Arctic does show signs of attempting to recover on each occasion, so perhaps all is not quite lost just yet!
  6. I copy the multi year ice thickness chart from David's post (where he replied to my incomplete post above this post) It shows the dramatic 'drop' of multi year ice in the noughties and early teens. This total ice thickness, extent and volume loss, was clearly associated with the loss of this multi-year ice. Last year the green and blue portions of the graph increased. (i.e. 2 and 3 year ice). My assumption/belief is that it is the caused by the increase in thickness in the central polar region. This ice has not been as easily melted out in a period of refreeze and the early signs in the 2018 season are that it is increasing rapidly again. Other factors are clearly at work - 1) This year (2018) has seen relatively benign conditions in the Arctic, with long periods of benign low pressure and relatively weak anti-cyclonic conditions. Only an occasional deeper low crossed the polar cap in July/August, and did not seem to cause too much disturbance to the ice. 2) The cyclone of 2013 obviously caused a massive drop at that stage and resulted in the atrocious ice conditions in the central Arctic in 2014. This may happen again at some stage. 3) The advection of warm air into the Arctic is interesting. a) It was the relatively 'warm air advection' (WAA) into the Arctic stratosphere in February 2017 (the SSW) that led to the massive cold outbreak in Europe and also resulted in the extremely rapid ice volume increases in early March. b) On the other hand an anticyclone centred over Aalska, Bering (or the Yukatan) seems to pull in massive amounts of warm air at low level, and causes rapid ice melt in most of the 'Eastern' Arctic. c) Warm air has been pushed into the Western Arctic for that last 30-35 years through the North Atlantic via the North Atlantic jet-stream and ocean currents. This has clearly resulted in the ice pack around Svalbard being despatched to the North and East, impacting Barents dramatically, and other closer sea areas as well. There are signs that the Atlantic Ocean Oscillation (AMO) is now moving into a negative mode. In the UK we have seen it in the lessening of the SW winds and frequent intrusions of NW winds instead. This would mean less heat arriving in the Western Arctic. d) There is evidence that the volume of ice being despatched from the Arctic by its 'overflow' route of the Fram Strait is diminishing. This (if one follows the ice movement) seems to have been caused by a reduction of cross polar flow. The ice is not moving anti-clockwise around the basin (across North Greenland) and down into the Fram area, as was the case several years ago. Indeed there have been times when the ice movement is clockwise - follow the 'lion rampant' for its movement last year, and you will see it turn to the north for some periods. The following chart shows the transport of ice through Fram - (thanks to ASIF) It is possible to see that it actually reversed during the SST in February/March timeframe, and has remined very low for the last 2 years. and finally - (but not least) e) the impact of Global Warming in the area, and its associated impact on the ice. Much has already been written on this. The only thing I would point out is that despite average anomaly temperature figures of +(3.0 - 5.0C) for weeks on end this refreeze season that the ice still has achieved a rapid recovery, presumably because of the benign conditions up there, and once more presumably a certain temperature was reached.. or maybe it is possible that we are seeing some unexplained feed-back effects. All the factors above have, at different times, had differing affects and which one is dominant has been it seems constantly changing... particularly over the last 2 years. The Arctic is clearly a very complex environment. There is much that we still need to understand. Dave (MIA UK)
  7. Please note: My incomplete post originally appeared above David's (Bring Back 1962-63) post and he replied to that (above) before I deleted it and the full version now appears immediately below. Many of the points I raised were discussed in David's reply post (above) which followed my original entry of my deleted part post. I apologise for the confusion. Dave (MIA)
  8. A further quick update from the last 2 days.... On Maisie, Kara has increased by a further (+42K) and (+19K). Whilst total ice has increased by 392K Km2. So the pace of ice refreeze has not yet reduced, and we are now above the average for the 2010 decade. but rapidly catching up with the pack. As the ESS is within 200K of being full and Laptev is about 400K away, it will be up to Kara to keep up the freezing momentum. Will it do this? The fact that we were last 3 weeks ago, and are now heading into the 'upper' reaches shows how volatile ice can be. Dave (MIA UK)
  9. Also in reply to my query on Kara in the previous posts. After the drop of 60K Km2 when I was posting my first posts, it increased by 82K Km2 the next day, and this morning it looks to have grown by a much larger amount. The graphics have been updated but not the actual data as yet. Dave (MIA UK)
  10. BB (David) Thanks for your response.. Before I produce my analysis of the thickness and volume, I thought that I would like to finish of my review of the current ice extent, mainly by way of adding information. Firstly a quick review of the last 2 or 3 days. After a reduction in all the various monitoring platforms on the 28th, growth has now accelerated again. Gains recorded were over 200K Km2 on the NSIDC platform and around the 150K Km2 on Maisie and JAXA. It should be realised that at this time of the year, the increase is normally around 95 -110K Km. The growth still appears to be continuing in the last 24 hours at high rates. The latest figure from JAXA is presented - It has now overtaken 2017, but more importantly it is still on an high growth trend. Now another 3 days of this and 2018 could well be in the middle of the 'pack?' having then caught up with years like 2007, 2010 and 2011. As we all know, ice is very fickle, and could well move down just as quickly as it moves up. So the above is not a prediction, but is quite possible. I am not pretending that this is anything but a 'rapid' catch up after a very slow start, but it is notable, because this 'catch up' has occurred whilst the 2M temperature has averaged between +2.5C and +4.5C anomalies, according to Climate Reanalyser. Even today it still stands at up to +3.7C So - How can this happen? I have a theory as to what is happening but I will leave it for now. Other points I would like to clarify is the relationship (in actual graphical terms), between the models. I tend to use Maisie as it is the most reactive, as described in my previous post. Other (and I think very good - if not better), is this chart from ASIF user Aluminium , which shows the rapid ice build up (and decline) in a real time fashion. I am not certain whether the graphics will work on here, but if it doesn't then click and open it in a new window, and it should then work OK. Period 27 - 31st October I think it shows clearly where the ice is changing in real time mode (assuming that the graphic works). It shows all ice types and therefore picks up on 'new, slush and Nilas,etc' and this shows up as a difference from the more conventional JAXA and NSIDC products. It seems to mirror Maisie. As an example I show a similar graphic from more conventional sources such as DMI (also applies to JAXA and NSIDC). The following is an ice thickness map (for the initial date in the above graphic in case the graphic does nor work) , but it seems to follow the graphics and extents of say the ADS Vishop presentation service. So I will be using the most reactive tools in order to get the latest trends and feautures of ice growth (or decline). This will clearly show many different trends. The job I set myself is to spot any pertinet changes early, without looking too foolish! MIA (UK) Dave
  11. BB (Dave) .. Thankyou for your, as usual, brilliant and informed reply. I thought that your comparison with 2016 was very good, and although I have deleted quite a bit of it, I found it very convincing. There are some differences though, which I will discuss below... From your charts (in your post above) , you can see that - 1)The SST's on the Siberian side, a month ago, were higher than those of 2016. Now they are remarkably very similar. 2) Whereas on the Canadian side the SST's were lower this year - and they still are at present. The same is true for the 2M temperatures. With the temperatures showing as -40C in Greenland (much lower than 2016) and those in the central and eastern Arctic still a little bit higher than 2016. Now, I have no problem with agreeing with the demise of the ice over the satellite era. But, this year, I think is somewhat different. At the moment, the ice is way ahead of 2016 on the Canadian side (western side?). The ice extent on the Eastern side was behind, but appears to have caught up (as per the last 2days). The effect is that we more ice extent than 2016, and we seem to be moving further away. The following is a graph from the ASIF which shows the results from JAXA (up to yesterday) - As I hope you can see 2018 has accelerated away from 2016 in the last week and a half. Now you are 'expecting' to see a slow down in 2018, (as per 2016), but there are some difference, and so far this month, the rate of acceleration is quite impressive. Now I tend to use 'Maisie' for the very latest updates on ice changes (it gives the daily values by region) and an overall value for the latest 24 hour period.. It shows all types of the ice - and tends to be more accurate on coastal ice than NSIDC products, at this time of year. (Clearly. at this moment ice is freezing both at sea and around the coast) . It therefore tends to 'forewarn' changes in the other products and therefore gives advance 'warning' of what is currently happening. It tends to be more reactive to any current changes. It has consistently had daily ice gains of over 150K Km2 with three of over 200K Km2, over the last 10days, until today, when it dropped to a 40K Km2 gain, mainly because of a 60KKm2 decline in Kara. It has gained 2M Km2 in the last 12 days. Average is normally about 1.2 M Km2. Is the drop in Kara the start of your forecasted slow down? It could be. This year has been an interesting year so far, with the ice refreeze being delayed by the flood of warm air from the Pacific in September, just when the refreeze should have started, So far incursions from the Atlantic have been kept to a minimum. This I believe will be the deciding factor as to whether this year ends up as a 'rebuild' year or not. Note - not a recovery year. I hope that I have not upset people with an attempt at identifying the actual changes that are occurring today. The historical recent past gives cause for concerns, but 'current' is at an interesting stage and could go either way. Dave - MIA (UK) Edit - I will do a more detailed look at ice thicknesses based upon the DMI charts above, in the next couple of days..
  12. Hi David... Just to let you know that I registered for the portal and that this is my first post MIA
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