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About jules216

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  • Birthday 09/25/1982

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    near Slovak Paradise National Park

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  1. Meteo France model has published October outlook for the winter months. And like the rest of Copernicus group it indicates +NAO and European ridge which would only bring below average temperatures probably to only Scandinavia. Rarely I have seen such a model consensus for a mild winter in Europe. At the moment we are having unprecedented spell of above average temperatures in Slovakia and no rain for next 8 days at least. Its hard to imagine now not having very warm winter, how are we going to break this persistent high pressure?
  2. It is quite amusing that by the end of next week we would have had several spells of -NAO this year which produced heat waves rather then cold weather in our region of Europe(Slovakia) though there was one example of May this year where NAO first dropped quite sharply and we had wet and cold month. Almost like our analogue anomalies that have mixed temperature departures although they all point to -NAO anomaly. Which shows even then we are not all guaranteed cold weather. I would say its important to have cyclogenesis in eastern med rather then high pressure like now. All to play for anyway, still better then 2013-14
  3. On the temperature departure from Andrej's(Recretos) map only Scandinavia,Baltics and Ireland has negative temperature anomalies. That does not really equal great pattern for Europe, looking at how warm this summer and autumn has been, any poorly placed block, like western Greenland NAO and cut of low around Spain can mean a huge WAA from Africa with only north of Scandinavia cold. An example is current -NAO period with didn't bring any colder temperatures anywhere apart from Scandinavia. We need East based -NAO to have Europe cold
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  5. @Red Fox See how Accuweather's autumn forecast is verifying so far for Europe, compare it against the first half of Autumn. They are failing on Scandinavia,Eastern Med and also British Isles quite a lot. They partially right in western Med lingering heat which is also present at western part of central Europe, specially these days and next 10 days or so. Not that great to be honest
  6. Well @Red Fox I do hope that Southeastern Europe doesn't end up having dry winter. Cyclogenesis in countries like Italy,Greece and Turkey does often help pulling Siberian air directly in to central Europe and at times further west. One example being winter 2011-12. We ended up with very frigid February in Slovakia
  7. Re. Accuweather forecast for Europe it actually reads quite positive development for the second half of the winter: The coldest conditions are forecast from Finland to Ukraine as frigid air blasts in from Siberia. Not only will the coldest air hold off until after the start of 2020, but so will the greatest opportunities for snow. According to Roys, the snowiest part of the winter will not arrive until later in January or February with the onset of bitterly cold air. The frigid air could occasionally push farther south and west, reaching into Poland, Slovakia and Romania. I am looking at next 10 days which show that bulk of the vortex may be migrating in to Euroasian part so we might end up with above average SAI, looking forward to see if it does start the positive feedback of Siberian high and possibly Aleutian low further on, perhaps when QBO turns negative in 30 hPa we might be in for a shot a SSW with better downwelling then last year. I see analogues 1995/95 and 2002/03 even 2004/05 being thrown in to mix which were really good winters in my neck of the woods in central Europe. We shall see.
  8. Appreciate there are not many posters here from other side of the Atlantic. I just want to point out one thing about NAO blocking. We have seen this year pulses of lengthy -NAO spells which didn't yield any negative temperature departures in Europe. Even if argument is seasonal wavelength changes then even now during this week we have -NAO and a big fat Euro high pressure with very positive temperatures,this is because cut of low pressure around UK stalling. This Euro high pattern in central Europe has been present ever since 2013 with the odd exception month here and there. Almost like you can average 1 week of favorable amplification and 3 weeks of stuck high pressure. Exceptions are few and far between and now seasonal models are indicating the exact same. Not looking forward to this winter at all to be honest, hate fog and low cloud and dull winter. I wonder if anyone has any teleconnective reasoning behind this trend. Where is that gulf of Genoa low pressure that helps dragging easterly winds westwards or large chunk of vortex migrating to Siberia/Scandinavia diving down to continent under cross polar blocking from Alaska to Greenland. Hudson bay area seem to have reserved polar vortex ever since 2013-14 winter.
  9. I would say from the UK point of view the frustration is enhanced because seasonal modeling and chiefly ECMWF 46D were very bullish about HLB this winter and the + height anomalies were very much pronounced in NAO region. We also have to factor in, that nearly all of the cold spells in last 6 winters came at the back of SSW. The expectations of January cold spell were hence very high. But statistically not all SSW deliver cold and it is good to be reminded that atmosphere is more complex and retains certain stochastic behaviour. I will enjoy the post winter banter and will be able to say that I've learned so much more again also thanks to this informative site
  10. To all my fellow US snow and winter lovers,greetings from Slovakia
  11. I have stopped counting how many times was NAO advocated to go negative by long range modeling, background signals(GWO 5,6,7) etc. here is an example from EC 46d model from middle of December against the reality that followed. For sure come last week of February it will have no problem going negative
  12. This post is mainly in the context of weather followers in Europe, not eastern Conus. Am I looking at things too simplistic with trying to understand the gist of stratospheric-tropospheric interaction? In next few days we are going to have Scandinavian blocking trying to establish itself. Around the same time a pulse of warming at 10hPa around Alaska is pushing the stratospheric polar vortex towards the same region where we have tropospheric heights- Scandi/western Russia(picture.1). Subsequently we loose the blocking over Scandinavia. Then in around 2 weeks time we see another pulse of stratospheric warming around eastern Siberia moving the core of polar vortex at 10hPa to Greenland/Iceland area(picture.2). In the same time we see on the hemispheric view of 500mb height anomalies that the core of tropospheric polar vortex is moving in the same direction - towards Greenland(picture.3) Am I making a false assumption of atmosphere in thinking that these stratospheric warmings are doing us no favors at all in short to medium term? There might be a pot of gold towards February and March, but how about the month where winter really matters for most of us - a week before and around Christmas. We get excited when we see these stratospheric warmings appear, but are they not having the opposite effect at least in the context of December? 
  13. Hi guys, any chance posting some hemispheric views from this evenings ECMWF 46 day update? Hopefully something more interesting for Europe cold, not like last update cheers
  14. @Webberweather how do I extrapolate this in layman terms? Is this more like modoki or basin wide signature? Do I guess right that this would feedback in to higher state of AAM tendency and MJO in cold phases 7-8-1 and more meridional atmosphere(-NAO) thanks
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