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jules216

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About jules216

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  • Birthday 09/25/1982

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  1. Does any of the expert posters have an idea where are we European followers heading in next few weeks or perhaps any ideas for January, @Isotherm, @Snowy Hibbo?
  2. thanks 33 Andrain, this looks like a -NAMT pattern which teleconnects to -NAO down the line, isn´t it?
  3. PB GFI, do you have northern hemispheric view on EPS days 11-15? Isn't it under paywall on weatherbell?
  4. Hi Zac, do you reckon we can salvage a pattern like this - GWO phase 8 before the end of the year? I am specifically interested in Europe, as some long range ensembles are hinting at more high pressure in western Europe and troughing in Eastern Scandi and Eastern Europe. Isotherm's winter outlook had low pressure Europe in January and also other posters elsewhere indicate troughing to dominate Europe in January. Anything please just not this stupid Eurohigh
  5. Yes I am aware of that, I was referring to the models outlook for 10+ days and how it goes zonal, luckily Central Europe doesn't necessarily rely on NAO all the time, moderately displaced Azores high and initial plunge with moderate snowfall then lock us in cold surface for a while even under high pressure with warmer T850, current conditions are like that, I will be on 6 ice days soon with 3cm lying snow. Of course UK climate wouldn't give me a chance of that, but still the westerlies Sunday onwards will blow the surface cold away and there is not much to be cheerful after. Like you say last year wasn't too bad as we had lying snow from 12th December till early February,overall it still finished above 1981/2010 mean though.
  6. Watching this December unfold has a dejavu feeling ever since 2013/14. You can almost set you clock for a colder spell of weather at the turn of the months which promises a lot going forward. The heights in NAO corridor always overplayed whatever model you look at in hours 168+ also the extent of Euro throughing which at the end mostly stays in Scandinavia and just brushes Baltics and Central Europe then gets quickly shuffled away by another deepening through west of Ireland which on the other hand at 168+ range is very much underplayed by models. Worst case scenario happening every single December. When was the last time most of Europe got cold between 10 and 25.12? As winter months come NAO goes positive, all the positive teleconnections dont really matter - vortex displaced to Scandi/Euroasia + Solar min. But the negative ones - slow descending QBO,Indian Ocean dipole,lack of tropical forcing,low GLAAM are almost sure to stamp their authority on atmosphere. It beggars belief that these variables were not present in 60ties where -NAO was quasi permanent. How come that "good" teleconnections outweight "bad" ones with ease, but now 1 bad one outweighs all good ones - last winter being an example, where it was apparently the shift of QBO from negative to positive that hindered SSW downwelling, or Nina like destructive forcing etc etc. So now Nina forcing is bad? How come we had great winters in past in La Nina then? Too many questions and confusing signals lead to one answer - zonal/mild. Another salt in wounds are all the cold rampers who come out every winter and try to convince public how bad are the mild and seasonal models and how teleconnections favor cold - a lot of them are in east USA and somehow their twitter activity filters through to general followers elsewhere.
  7. Hi Zac, I hope your forecast will pan out close to reality, as I am loosing hope for this Sceuro high to vanish, when looking at long range models, it is there as an unmovable object
  8. I don't see how you gonna get those low heights to central/eastern Europe, all modeling is firm on high pressure there, even overnight ECMWF weeklies, also GEFS has very little spread in that region, very much going against all analogs that point otherwise. I am starting to wonder are we heading in to very warm December in Europe
  9. Did you go by descending QBO analogues? These winters are too good to be true if they verify especially considering how persistent is the eastern European ridge that is forecast to stay until the end of EPS for example. I don't have a feeling of a cold December yet, but a back loaded winter
  10. This is actually an OK forecast for some parts of Europe, I am pleasantly surprised of low heights in January and with few tweaks February can be an easterly month for us in central Europe. Lets hope this will pan out close to reality. I don't mind wasting December if can get some cyclonic action around Mediterranean later as per your January re-analysis
  11. During my childhood we have been accustomed to treat November like a winter's month. But recent ones have been more like extension of Indian summer. See temperature anomaly for Novembers in 90's . Very cold for 1981/2010 climo. standards. Looking at long range models this year November will follow the destiny of other months with much above average temperatures for most of Europe.
  12. I think we should start charging the Americans for stealing again all the supply of cold air mass courtesy of vortex location in vicinity of Hudson Bay as per recent climo. What we are left is unmovable Scandi Euro high and devoid of all cold air. What awful synoptics to be under just before the start of winter proper.
  13. In my eyes the trend for an interesting end of autumn and early winter in slowly decreasing. North Atlantic SST are now far away from Tripole pattern, waters around east coast of USA have warmed up. Watch how cold air exiting USA hits warm SST and cyclogenesis explodes just enough to prevent NAO blocking. The low pressure will park west of Ireland and welcome back Euro High. We may be hoping for Scandinavian high pressure if Atlantic lows keeps just enough southerly trajectory. Zonal winds are also on steroids as per recent years this time of year.
  14. Meteo France model has published October outlook for the winter months. And like the rest of Copernicus group it indicates +NAO and European ridge which would only bring below average temperatures probably to only Scandinavia. Rarely I have seen such a model consensus for a mild winter in Europe. At the moment we are having unprecedented spell of above average temperatures in Slovakia and no rain for next 8 days at least. Its hard to imagine now not having very warm winter, how are we going to break this persistent high pressure?
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