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jules216

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About jules216

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  • Birthday 09/25/1982

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    near Slovak Paradise National Park

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  1. another look at ECMWF NAO Fail
  2. I have stopped counting how many times was NAO advocated to go negative by long range modeling, background signals(GWO 5,6,7) etc. here is an example from EC 46d model from middle of December against the reality that followed. For sure come last week of February it will have no problem going negative
  3. This post is mainly in the context of weather followers in Europe, not eastern Conus. Am I looking at things too simplistic with trying to understand the gist of stratospheric-tropospheric interaction? In next few days we are going to have Scandinavian blocking trying to establish itself. Around the same time a pulse of warming at 10hPa around Alaska is pushing the stratospheric polar vortex towards the same region where we have tropospheric heights- Scandi/western Russia(picture.1). Subsequently we loose the blocking over Scandinavia. Then in around 2 weeks time we see another pulse of stratospheric warming around eastern Siberia moving the core of polar vortex at 10hPa to Greenland/Iceland area(picture.2). In the same time we see on the hemispheric view of 500mb height anomalies that the core of tropospheric polar vortex is moving in the same direction - towards Greenland(picture.3) Am I making a false assumption of atmosphere in thinking that these stratospheric warmings are doing us no favors at all in short to medium term? There might be a pot of gold towards February and March, but how about the month where winter really matters for most of us - a week before and around Christmas. We get excited when we see these stratospheric warmings appear, but are they not having the opposite effect at least in the context of December? 
  4. Hi guys, any chance posting some hemispheric views from this evenings ECMWF 46 day update? Hopefully something more interesting for Europe cold, not like last update cheers
  5. @Webberweather how do I extrapolate this in layman terms? Is this more like modoki or basin wide signature? Do I guess right that this would feedback in to higher state of AAM tendency and MJO in cold phases 7-8-1 and more meridional atmosphere(-NAO) thanks
  6. jules216

    Isotherm’s Winter Outlook 2018-19

    Great write up Isotherm. Just for illustration your only analogue 1963-64 winter was second coldest in last 50 years in the neck of the woods where I come from in Central Europe
  7. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Europe joining the action much later as usual courtesy of NAO and AO help
  8. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Maybe just give us a gist of the general overview where in EU looks cold and snowy
  9. please delete if off topic. What is the most accurate way to measure the daily mean temperature? Some use max+min/2, but heard that is not most accurate method. Thanks
  10. The GEFS are advertising progression of the MJO through I/O and possibly in to phases 5 and 6, would any of the teleconective experts think this amplitude would be strong enough to force downstream rossby wave breaking poleward? We have seen many times this MJO wave vanish in to COD before it could enter the so called cold phases(6,7,8) and then reappear again in warm phases. Last winter we have seen a strong amplitude passage of MJO through Indian Ocean which many said was the catalyst of the SSW later in February that caused cold in E.USA and Europe. @Tamara also mentioned to me something in similar motion few weeks ago: The reason I have given all this background detail is to suggest that the low frequency MJO signal really needs to produce an amplitude wave response that traverses the tropics through the I/0 and Maritime phases through to West and Central Pacific Phases 6/7 in order to produce a westerly wind burst response west of the dateline to nullify the sub tropical high pressure signature of the -ve SPO. Would you reckon this current MJO attempt would be sustained enough to achieve the above mentioned notion? I have looked at the Phases 6,7 an 8 for December and they look amazing for Europe cold
  11. That ECM run I posted was closer to wave 2 pattern then wave 1 if I interpret it correctly. On the other hand this morning ECMWF runs is as zonal as it gets
  12. It is great to see some of the well known faces posting here. Nice growing community. I guess this chart from ECMWF 12z 240hr will do no harm in weakening SPV, a strong Aleutian low incoming. Would this classify as wave 2 attack?
  13. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Just wondering will MJO sustain momentum to orbit through to phases 6 and 7 just in time for December. strong +height anomaly in the GIN corridor would to nicely for cold Europe
  14. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    My reaction was to the post which had the EPS mean included for the first few weeks of December which quite frankly would mean a torch for Europe. The pattern seams to be reoccurring one ever since May. Even if we have amplified pattern and lows get stuck west of Ireland, we will only be achieving this Euro high if we do not get a trigger low in far east of Europe which can pull some of the very cold air westwards. Might be a frustrating evolution to observe come next few weeks
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