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About jules216

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  • Birthday 09/25/1982

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    near Slovak Paradise National Park

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  1. As we are quite closely matching 2003 with progression of QBO I had a look at historical MJO data for what it was doing in Jan 03. We can detect low amplitude RMM phases 7 and 8 between 10 - 18.01. Then I plotted 500mb height anomaly between 20.01 and 15.02 and it gave a result of Eastern US through and Western ridge. Cold signal for Eastern US and Europe. Perhaps we won't need such a high amplitude MJO in phases 7 and 8 for positive results
  2. @Webberweather do you think that phase 7 can potentially put us Europeans back in the game for some cold weather? It does seem to correlate with amplifying ridge in Greenland/Iceland corridor
  3. There were some forecasters that had quite an encouraging anomaly for Europe in their seasonal forecasts in they're January composites,for example @Isotherm had a map with central Europe through, yet we are facing a Euro High spell of easily 7+ days. Also @Snowy Hibbo mentioned a window of opportunity within period of 26.12 and 10.01 for Europe and southern Alps, this has also not materialized accordingly. This suggests that we are underestimating the power of Euro High which is making seasonal composited from decades ago useless, maybe some day someone will try to analyze why we are having this feature in Europe dominating 90% of the time since 2013, about time we try to get some answers
  4. Does any of the expert posters have an idea where are we European followers heading in next few weeks or perhaps any ideas for January, @Isotherm, @Snowy Hibbo?
  5. thanks 33 Andrain, this looks like a -NAMT pattern which teleconnects to -NAO down the line, isn´t it?
  6. PB GFI, do you have northern hemispheric view on EPS days 11-15? Isn't it under paywall on weatherbell?
  7. Hi Zac, do you reckon we can salvage a pattern like this - GWO phase 8 before the end of the year? I am specifically interested in Europe, as some long range ensembles are hinting at more high pressure in western Europe and troughing in Eastern Scandi and Eastern Europe. Isotherm's winter outlook had low pressure Europe in January and also other posters elsewhere indicate troughing to dominate Europe in January. Anything please just not this stupid Eurohigh
  8. Yes I am aware of that, I was referring to the models outlook for 10+ days and how it goes zonal, luckily Central Europe doesn't necessarily rely on NAO all the time, moderately displaced Azores high and initial plunge with moderate snowfall then lock us in cold surface for a while even under high pressure with warmer T850, current conditions are like that, I will be on 6 ice days soon with 3cm lying snow. Of course UK climate wouldn't give me a chance of that, but still the westerlies Sunday onwards will blow the surface cold away and there is not much to be cheerful after. Like you say last year wasn't too bad as we had lying snow from 12th December till early February,overall it still finished above 1981/2010 mean though.
  9. Watching this December unfold has a dejavu feeling ever since 2013/14. You can almost set you clock for a colder spell of weather at the turn of the months which promises a lot going forward. The heights in NAO corridor always overplayed whatever model you look at in hours 168+ also the extent of Euro throughing which at the end mostly stays in Scandinavia and just brushes Baltics and Central Europe then gets quickly shuffled away by another deepening through west of Ireland which on the other hand at 168+ range is very much underplayed by models. Worst case scenario happening every single December. When was the last time most of Europe got cold between 10 and 25.12? As winter months come NAO goes positive, all the positive teleconnections dont really matter - vortex displaced to Scandi/Euroasia + Solar min. But the negative ones - slow descending QBO,Indian Ocean dipole,lack of tropical forcing,low GLAAM are almost sure to stamp their authority on atmosphere. It beggars belief that these variables were not present in 60ties where -NAO was quasi permanent. How come that "good" teleconnections outweight "bad" ones with ease, but now 1 bad one outweighs all good ones - last winter being an example, where it was apparently the shift of QBO from negative to positive that hindered SSW downwelling, or Nina like destructive forcing etc etc. So now Nina forcing is bad? How come we had great winters in past in La Nina then? Too many questions and confusing signals lead to one answer - zonal/mild. Another salt in wounds are all the cold rampers who come out every winter and try to convince public how bad are the mild and seasonal models and how teleconnections favor cold - a lot of them are in east USA and somehow their twitter activity filters through to general followers elsewhere.
  10. Hi Zac, I hope your forecast will pan out close to reality, as I am loosing hope for this Sceuro high to vanish, when looking at long range models, it is there as an unmovable object
  11. I don't see how you gonna get those low heights to central/eastern Europe, all modeling is firm on high pressure there, even overnight ECMWF weeklies, also GEFS has very little spread in that region, very much going against all analogs that point otherwise. I am starting to wonder are we heading in to very warm December in Europe
  12. Did you go by descending QBO analogues? These winters are too good to be true if they verify especially considering how persistent is the eastern European ridge that is forecast to stay until the end of EPS for example. I don't have a feeling of a cold December yet, but a back loaded winter
  13. During my childhood we have been accustomed to treat November like a winter's month. But recent ones have been more like extension of Indian summer. See temperature anomaly for Novembers in 90's . Very cold for 1981/2010 climo. standards. Looking at long range models this year November will follow the destiny of other months with much above average temperatures for most of Europe.
  14. I think we should start charging the Americans for stealing again all the supply of cold air mass courtesy of vortex location in vicinity of Hudson Bay as per recent climo. What we are left is unmovable Scandi Euro high and devoid of all cold air. What awful synoptics to be under just before the start of winter proper.
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