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jules216

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About jules216

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    near Slovak Paradise National Park

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  1. jules216

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    @Webberweather how do I extrapolate this in layman terms? Is this more like modoki or basin wide signature? Do I guess right that this would feedback in to higher state of AAM tendency and MJO in cold phases 7-8-1 and more meridional atmosphere(-NAO) thanks
  2. jules216

    Isotherm’s Winter Outlook 2018-19

    Great write up Isotherm. Just for illustration your only analogue 1963-64 winter was second coldest in last 50 years in the neck of the woods where I come from in Central Europe
  3. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Europe joining the action much later as usual courtesy of NAO and AO help
  4. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Maybe just give us a gist of the general overview where in EU looks cold and snowy
  5. please delete if off topic. What is the most accurate way to measure the daily mean temperature? Some use max+min/2, but heard that is not most accurate method. Thanks
  6. jules216

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    The GEFS are advertising progression of the MJO through I/O and possibly in to phases 5 and 6, would any of the teleconective experts think this amplitude would be strong enough to force downstream rossby wave breaking poleward? We have seen many times this MJO wave vanish in to COD before it could enter the so called cold phases(6,7,8) and then reappear again in warm phases. Last winter we have seen a strong amplitude passage of MJO through Indian Ocean which many said was the catalyst of the SSW later in February that caused cold in E.USA and Europe. @Tamara also mentioned to me something in similar motion few weeks ago: The reason I have given all this background detail is to suggest that the low frequency MJO signal really needs to produce an amplitude wave response that traverses the tropics through the I/0 and Maritime phases through to West and Central Pacific Phases 6/7 in order to produce a westerly wind burst response west of the dateline to nullify the sub tropical high pressure signature of the -ve SPO. Would you reckon this current MJO attempt would be sustained enough to achieve the above mentioned notion? I have looked at the Phases 6,7 an 8 for December and they look amazing for Europe cold
  7. jules216

    Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

    That ECM run I posted was closer to wave 2 pattern then wave 1 if I interpret it correctly. On the other hand this morning ECMWF runs is as zonal as it gets
  8. jules216

    Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

    It is great to see some of the well known faces posting here. Nice growing community. I guess this chart from ECMWF 12z 240hr will do no harm in weakening SPV, a strong Aleutian low incoming. Would this classify as wave 2 attack?
  9. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Just wondering will MJO sustain momentum to orbit through to phases 6 and 7 just in time for December. strong +height anomaly in the GIN corridor would to nicely for cold Europe
  10. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    My reaction was to the post which had the EPS mean included for the first few weeks of December which quite frankly would mean a torch for Europe. The pattern seams to be reoccurring one ever since May. Even if we have amplified pattern and lows get stuck west of Ireland, we will only be achieving this Euro high if we do not get a trigger low in far east of Europe which can pull some of the very cold air westwards. Might be a frustrating evolution to observe come next few weeks
  11. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    A nightmare pattern for Europe according the ECMWF weeklies, maybe it looks blocked, but that high pressure spanning from Black see through Belarus and in to Baltic has been omnipresent from May, we need a trigger low there, not high pressure.
  12. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    That is an awful pattern for Europe if you want cold and snowy early winter,it goes against their seasonal update from few weeks ago but will come as no surprise to me,somebody nuke that Euro high,I've seen it ruin most of our recent winters
  13. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    at your side of hemisphere, not at our one in 14-15
  14. jules216

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Does anybody know yet weather ECMWF weeklies tonight show trends towards ridging around Scandinavia and -AO or just a pesky euro high and a +NAO and unsettled western Europe. Would it be too optimistic to presume that the next WWB can lead to more sustained +AAM and atmosphere finally coupling with el nino. Looking out for similarities between now and 2009 when we saw high pressure establishing around Scandinavia/Svalbard region.
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