Webberweather

The things I would do to see the 0z GFS verify. Haven’t seen a storm with >8” of snow in Fayetteville in over 40 years, the last one footer was nearly 65 years ago. Just give me one historic storm just one. That’s all I want lol.

Notice how the deeper & slower cut off upper trough over the eastern US this weekend helps translate to more -NAO in the medium & extended range. The upcoming -NAO regime showing on the models starts w/ alterations to the basic state flow in the short-range over eastern N America. I expect the -NAO trend to continue a little longer in NWP as they attempt to fully resolve this eastern US trough & the wave break that accompanies and subsequently follows it, as additional waves are slowed, forced to break underneath, & further reinforce the Baffin Bay block.

The GEFS & EPS are trending towards more -NAO in the medium range Here's the 18z GEFS minus 12z GEFS for day 6-9. It's not the best or ideal pattern by any means but as long as we have a strong west-based -NAO like that, there's always a legit chance of a KU event, just comes down to a synoptic luck of the draw.

Everyone that wanted to "fix the N Pacific" are about to get their wish in weeks 2-4.

I have a feeling the SE US is gonna end up handing off the first couple storms in this pattern to the mid-Atlantic and my window probably isn't until about Jan 14-15th ish at the earliest. I personally don't feel super comfortable down here in south-central NC until there's a bit more snow cover to my north & as the high-latitude block continues retrograding & migrating poleward, both encouraging deeper, colder air masses to enter the picture.

NWP completely whiffed on the +PNA in the medium range and forecasted a giant SW US trough/-PNA just 4-5 days ago. Pattern is turning more favorable sooner for folks here & as I said earlier this past week, it's not gonna take much to crank out a KU event prior to mid January and we've made a few moves in the right direction to make that happen imo. Just a matter of getting a good stroke of luck synoptically & have individual waves in the right spots at the right time.

The LR GEFS is trending more weenie after day 10.

Of the storms I showed in an animation yesterday, this is the most quintessential example of what many would deem a crappy/garbage N Pacific pattern coinciding w/ a historic east coast blizzard. Seems like I've been beating a dead horse here but, you'll virtually always have a legit chance to get a really big storm on the I-95 corridor when there's a giant west-based -NAO involved.

Weren't we supposed to be torching in this time frame? Lol so much for that

Trash model

This short-term trend in the GFS at 10mb

Glosea5 shows clear, very strong coupling between the SSW and west-based -NAO by mid-January. Seeing this gives me the warm fuzzies

Basically uninterrupted 50-50 low on today's GFS beginning at day 4 lasting thru at least day 10. Many of the classic pieces are already in place.

Classic high-latitude N Pacific planetary wave retrogression. It's only a matter of time...

We don't need to change the N Pacific. Look at some of these monsters and how bad the N Pacific looked (esp Feb 78). If you get a legit west-based -NAO like we're going to see by the 2nd week of January, there's almost always going to be a fighting chance of a big KU event regardless of what the Pacific is doing.