Webberweather

Lol. Same different day. This storm has a real chance to be Philadelphia's first legit accumulating snow event of the season.

Meh this feels different, the shoulder portions of the season can be full of surprises, any accumulating snow whatsoever in DC-BAL-PHL would be a massive win and this is arguably the best chance they’ve had all season which isn’t saying much

The GFS is also going in basically the same direction as the ECMWF.

This is 6 days away from verifying, you should know by now living in the NE US that's basically an eternity w/ a fickle setup like this

Uh oh.

Here comes another giant dateline westerly wind burst.

Week 3-4 CFSv2 N Hem 500mb forecast February-March N hem z500 preceding all El Ninos in the satellite era Coupled with this: It's pretty obvious to me where we're headed.

The ECMWF has a stout weak bias w/ the MJO in the West Pac while the GEFS is usually overzealous, a middle of the road solution w/ a slight GEFS lean if anything is usually the best way to go in cases like this. Such a compromise solution still favors a huge WWB later in February that will send us well on our way to a legit El Nino. I certainly think there's some legitimacy to the GEFS forecast of a high amplitude WP MJO event given the modoki NINO that's currently ongoing that'll encourage MJO progression deeper into the central pacific (vs normal). We're also at the time of the year where the MJO tends to be the strongest due to its axisymmetry wrt the equator.

We're about to take a big step towards El Nino in the coming year. Still could easily decay in the spring & summer but even if the MJO verifies half that strong, we're about to see a gigantic westerly wind burst in the Equatorial pacific.

We're reaching a very critical point in the calendar year where every MJO event has the potential to reverberate throughout the climate system for the rest of the year & possibly into 2021 thanks in large part to how it selectively modulates ENSO. It's at this point in the year where ENSO is most susceptible and sensitive to high frequency atmospheric "noise" forcing and the convective envelope associated w/ the MJO is most axisymmetric wrt the equator & thus more effective at generating equatorial counter current anomalies that may kickstart, amplify, or destroy ENSO events. In light of how the Pacific has been evolving the last several months, verification of the GEFS MJO forecast w/ a big WP MJO event (& thus another huge WWB) may send us on a collision course w/ El Nino (again) in 2020-21.

Looks like we're gonna get February started off on the right foot... Not.

This winter is quickly going into the toilet. The GEFS trends at virtually time step starting at 120 hr are atrocious.

Hardly any other way to describe this weekend's threat other than a hot mess. We've jammed at least 4-5 separate shortwaves south of the Lakes & east of the Rockies, good luck figuring this out 4-5 days in advance.

So much for that blowtorch we were promised.

Boy, it'd be really nice to have a -EPO right about now to dislodge the coldest air (relative to normal) in Alaska & send it hurdling towards the CONUS.