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Everything posted by Webberweather

  1. The things I would do to see the 0z GFS verify. Haven’t seen a storm with >8” of snow in Fayetteville in over 40 years, the last one footer was nearly 65 years ago. Just give me one historic storm just one. That’s all I want lol.
  2. Notice how the deeper & slower cut off upper trough over the eastern US this weekend helps translate to more -NAO in the medium & extended range. The upcoming -NAO regime showing on the models starts w/ alterations to the basic state flow in the short-range over eastern N America. I expect the -NAO trend to continue a little longer in NWP as they attempt to fully resolve this eastern US trough & the wave break that accompanies and subsequently follows it, as additional waves are slowed, forced to break underneath, & further reinforce the Baffin Bay block.
  3. The GEFS & EPS are trending towards more -NAO in the medium range Here's the 18z GEFS minus 12z GEFS for day 6-9. It's not the best or ideal pattern by any means but as long as we have a strong west-based -NAO like that, there's always a legit chance of a KU event, just comes down to a synoptic luck of the draw.
  4. Everyone that wanted to "fix the N Pacific" are about to get their wish in weeks 2-4.
  5. I have a feeling the SE US is gonna end up handing off the first couple storms in this pattern to the mid-Atlantic and my window probably isn't until about Jan 14-15th ish at the earliest. I personally don't feel super comfortable down here in south-central NC until there's a bit more snow cover to my north & as the high-latitude block continues retrograding & migrating poleward, both encouraging deeper, colder air masses to enter the picture.
  6. NWP completely whiffed on the +PNA in the medium range and forecasted a giant SW US trough/-PNA just 4-5 days ago. Pattern is turning more favorable sooner for folks here & as I said earlier this past week, it's not gonna take much to crank out a KU event prior to mid January and we've made a few moves in the right direction to make that happen imo. Just a matter of getting a good stroke of luck synoptically & have individual waves in the right spots at the right time.
  7. Of the storms I showed in an animation yesterday, this is the most quintessential example of what many would deem a crappy/garbage N Pacific pattern coinciding w/ a historic east coast blizzard. Seems like I've been beating a dead horse here but, you'll virtually always have a legit chance to get a really big storm on the I-95 corridor when there's a giant west-based -NAO involved.
  8. Weren't we supposed to be torching in this time frame? Lol so much for that
  9. Glosea5 shows clear, very strong coupling between the SSW and west-based -NAO by mid-January. Seeing this gives me the warm fuzzies
  10. Basically uninterrupted 50-50 low on today's GFS beginning at day 4 lasting thru at least day 10. Many of the classic pieces are already in place.
  11. Classic high-latitude N Pacific planetary wave retrogression. It's only a matter of time...
  12. We don't need to change the N Pacific. Look at some of these monsters and how bad the N Pacific looked (esp Feb 78). If you get a legit west-based -NAO like we're going to see by the 2nd week of January, there's almost always going to be a fighting chance of a big KU event regardless of what the Pacific is doing.
  13. We won't necessarily need a legit -EPO or a fully retracted Pacific jet to crank out a storm in this pattern. The physical process of the jet pulling back from its most extended state is all it can take to trigger a transient +PNA & crank out a KU event w/ the giant west-based -NAO overhead.
  14. Coupling with the stratosphere usually occurs right off the bat during displacement SSWEs that feature precursor -NAOs like we're seeing this year. ECMWF is already starting to couple near the end of its run (again). Probably January 10-15th ish when the west-based -NAO probably becomes more equivalent barotropic/begins to fully couple w/ warm anomaly & corresponding ridge in the polar stratosphere
  15. Yeah, we just had a giant 1085+ hPa sfc high descend into Mongolia and none of the global NWP models were even within 10mb of the sfc observations
  16. There are now some EPS members going for sub-900mb pressure in the N Pacific. I honestly didn't think extratropical cyclones could get this strong. Speechless
  17. If this stratosphere coupling w/ our already strong west-based -NAO near & arguably after) the end of today's Euro run is successful, we're gonna have an all you can eat buffet of -NAO/-AO for most of the rest of this winter.
  18. Stratosphere trying to couple w/ the west-based -NAO at the end of the 12z ECMWF here.
  19. Yep, it's just the surface reflection of the Rossby wave train that's about to take out the polar vortex. The trend in the models w/ this sfc low and the utter whiff w/ the true extent of the Siberian high that recently descended into Mongolia makes me wonder if they're grossly underestimating the corresponding stationary wave fluxes that eventually lead to the SSWE in January.
  20. 918. NINE EIGHTEEN hPa. This would shatter the record for strongest extratropical low in the N Pacific (924 (remnants of Nuri (2014)) & we're approaching all-time record territory for any extratropical cyclone on record in the entire N Hemisphere (913mb).
  21. 0z EPS minimum SLP near the Kamchatka Peninsula. If this verified, we'd tie a global record for lowest minimum SLP for an extratropical cyclone & shatter the all-time N pacific record.
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