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JVENGE

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About JVENGE

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    Chisinau, Moldova.

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  1. Probably the mildest winter Moldova has seen for a decade. Still, lots of hard frosts, some minus days, a few snow events, but none heavy. Enjoyed some cold days at orthodox Christmas and the whole experience was delightful. With a healthy dose of home made vodka. Change seems to be afoot, but I'm not sure I see a route to prolonged cold. Even less hopeful for western Europe. No more than transient, I think. Similarities to the winter of 2006-2007 are striking. Also a strong IOD event outside of a strong ENSO signal.
  2. It's a complex subject. I'd generally take the libertarian view that people can do what they want, unless it impedes the safety and rights of someone else. However There are some links to mental health issues, especially in adolescence. There is a chicken and egg argument there for sure. Most of Europe is a high social net place so there should be a serious thought process before formally legalizing something linked to mental health issues. There are only so many hits a society can take before falling. In the US the situation is a little different as the social net isn't so encompassing. Consequences are more on the individual rather than the state. Personally not a user, I know people who are and have been. Mixed results. Some are highly successful people and have made it a casual part of their life. Some ended up deeply troubled individuals. Chicken and egg question again, though. Its use doesn't bother me as long as people suck up any potential consequences and don't burden the state with it.
  3. Appears to be pointless. I'm not American, though. The call seemed to happen on or around the time there was an election in Ukraine and the Ukrainian President's party did quite well in that election, giving a clear majority. So, it was probably originally penned in up be a congratulations call. "You only call me when I win things" he said on the call. As an outsider, I haven't heard anything definitive. All foreign aid is quid pro quo. You give something in order to get something you want back, be it policy change or whatever. Biden was quite vocal about this when he held 1 billion in aid in order to get a prosecutor fired (i won't go into details). So, the only question which then remains is if Trump acted to personally benefit and tried to solicit interference in the 2020 election. Maybe he did, maybe he didn't. The call itself is just a jumble of words and incoherent thoughts, much like how Trump speaks on camera. It is mostly second hand information, but at best it is muddled with general corruption concerns. If there was an attempt, it doesn't seem to have made it to where it needed to be in order for it to be taken that way by Ukraine. They have said repeated times they didn't see it that way. In any normal case, when the supposed "victim" is saying no crime was committed, there isn't anything to answer for. I personally think Trump is obsessed with the deep state mindset and can't get over what was attempted in regards to try and drag him out of office over the Russia investigation, which he has partially linked to Ukraine, rightfully or wrongly. Would I put it past him to try it? Nope, but I'm far away from being sure that's what he was doing. Personally, if I was an American, I'd be more concerned by this Adam Schiff character. Made some quite dubious claims while the Russian investigation was going on and again when describing the call with Ukraine. Not a perfect call and perhaps the voters should keep it in mind come election time, but it isn't enough to drag someone out of elected office over.
  4. Last November, December and January finished below average in Moldova. Lakes stayed frozen over for 3 months or so. Quite different start to winter this time around, of course But even in these mild starts, still two snow falls, this morning -5. Even in a mild winter there is always one or two events in Moldova that people would talk about for 20 years in the UK.
  5. Always hard to find an exact matching one 95/96 was epic for central Europe and Eastern Europe. Not too bad for western Europe either. However, was also a weak La Nina... 2002-2003 was a stronger El Nino Modoki. 2004-2005 is probably the closest you will get just looking at QBO, Enso and solar levels. However, that's assuming it does indeed end up being a weak Modoki El Nino (ENSO neutral not unrealistic either) and west QBO. Things will be a little clearer towards the middle of November I guess. So, although I don't have much faith in Accuweather's seasonal forecasts, you can find all kinds of different results looking back at the analog years. So nice to see such a thread on a more civilized forum
  6. I like Bastardi, but one should always keep in mind he is almost completely focussed on the US. The pattern for Europe is already quite different from 2002/2003.
  7. The UK can find itself on the edge of benefitting from displacement, but it can and does happen, of course, and composites are just a blend of what has happened previously. Still, there is plenty of optimism around to say the game is afoot at least I suppose more from seasonal modeling will drip out in terms of specific months, but the JMA, ECM seasonal and Glosea5 doesn't look too bad.
  8. In any given EPS run, you usually end up with 3 or so clusters in regards to options. That's 3 different outcomes days 10-15 out. Of course, some are more majority favored than others. When you extrapolate that out a month or so, you end up with gobbledygook. The weekly run is already two runs out of date as well.
  9. I wouldn't worry about the weeklies too much for now. Just keep an eye on the ECM EPS mean from each run.
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