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JVENGE

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About JVENGE

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    Chisinau, Moldova.

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  1. Probably the mildest winter Moldova has seen for a decade. Still, lots of hard frosts, some minus days, a few snow events, but none heavy. Enjoyed some cold days at orthodox Christmas and the whole experience was delightful. With a healthy dose of home made vodka. Change seems to be afoot, but I'm not sure I see a route to prolonged cold. Even less hopeful for western Europe. No more than transient, I think. Similarities to the winter of 2006-2007 are striking. Also a strong IOD event outside of a strong ENSO signal.
  2. Last November, December and January finished below average in Moldova. Lakes stayed frozen over for 3 months or so. Quite different start to winter this time around, of course But even in these mild starts, still two snow falls, this morning -5. Even in a mild winter there is always one or two events in Moldova that people would talk about for 20 years in the UK.
  3. Always hard to find an exact matching one 95/96 was epic for central Europe and Eastern Europe. Not too bad for western Europe either. However, was also a weak La Nina... 2002-2003 was a stronger El Nino Modoki. 2004-2005 is probably the closest you will get just looking at QBO, Enso and solar levels. However, that's assuming it does indeed end up being a weak Modoki El Nino (ENSO neutral not unrealistic either) and west QBO. Things will be a little clearer towards the middle of November I guess. So, although I don't have much faith in Accuweather's seasonal forecasts, you can find all kinds of different results looking back at the analog years. So nice to see such a thread on a more civilized forum
  4. I like Bastardi, but one should always keep in mind he is almost completely focussed on the US. The pattern for Europe is already quite different from 2002/2003.
  5. The UK can find itself on the edge of benefitting from displacement, but it can and does happen, of course, and composites are just a blend of what has happened previously. Still, there is plenty of optimism around to say the game is afoot at least I suppose more from seasonal modeling will drip out in terms of specific months, but the JMA, ECM seasonal and Glosea5 doesn't look too bad.
  6. In any given EPS run, you usually end up with 3 or so clusters in regards to options. That's 3 different outcomes days 10-15 out. Of course, some are more majority favored than others. When you extrapolate that out a month or so, you end up with gobbledygook. The weekly run is already two runs out of date as well.
  7. I wouldn't worry about the weeklies too much for now. Just keep an eye on the ECM EPS mean from each run.
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