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Yaakov

Meteorologist
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Yaakov last won the day on September 18

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About Yaakov

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  1. The tropical cyclone signaled by the EPS guidance for many days has finally developed and become TS Sebastien northeast of the Leeward Islands. No threat to land, but interesting from a meteorology perspective and unusual to see a TC forming in such a location this time of year.
  2. This little event really shows the importance of high-resolution/mesoscale models. Very dynamic setup with 500 mb upper low tracking NE through c. PA into se NY and W. New England, along with a strong vort at 700 mb, and then interacting with an inverted trough extending W/SW from the low near Nova Scotia. A narrow band of locally heavy precip (likely terrain-enhanced) seems pretty certain from E NY into W New Eng, but temps likely to be borderline and isothermal near 0C for a few hours so precip rates very important in the turnover to snow.
  3. Looks like ocean effect snow. Instability is sufficient - ocean temps about 14C just offshore, while 925 mb temps at -2C (but rising quickly).
  4. Most models show two different storms, each associated with rather potent vorts rotating around a deepening negative tilt trough - one Sun-Mon and one following closely on its heels by mid next week. However, the ICON phases the two vorts into one large system that impacts the northeast Sun night into Mon.
  5. Some clues on the Dec pattern and potential for -NAO and blocking:
  6. I found the storm you are referring to. It was not named operationally, but was classified as Subtropical Storm Three in reanalysis. It reached a peak intensity of 978 mb with 70 mph winds while off the Mid-Atlantic coast late on Nov 14 into early Nov 15, 1981. It caused significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. The synoptic pattern that led to the Nov 1981 subtropical storm forming bears some similarities to the pattern leading up to the possible E Coast hybrid system this weekend. In Nov 1981, the southern piece of an anomalously deep trough over the ne US broke off and formed a cutoff low just off the SE US coast. In our case, the cutoff low will likely have already formed by the time the system is near the central Gulf coast (see ECMWF 72 hour forecast below).
  7. The system moving through the ne GOM and off the East coast late this week into this weekend starts out cold-core/frontal, but as it sits over the anomalously warm Gulf stream with SSTs up to 28C, there is a decent chance for it to transform into a subtropical or tropical cyclone. (Similar process to what occurred with Melissa, with a subtropical/tropical cyclone forming in the midst of a larger mid-latitude cyclone/upper low, but just further south). The 6z GFS, as well as the 0z UKMET and ECMWF, all indicate a transition to a shallow warm-core system off the coast of the Carolinas. This system has the potential to bring major coastal flooding and wind gusts near hurricane force to the coastal Carolinas, but will likely weaken as it heads NE, so coastal impacts in the northern mid-Atlantic and southern New England would be less significant. Although the reinforcing shot of very cold air Sat/early Sun retreats quickly aloft, the cold/dry air near the sfc will be slower to retreat with strong damming associated with a 1035+ mb high to the north... so watch for freezing rain potential in interior areas from PA/NY to New England late Sun into Mon.
  8. Very interesting info, @uncle w. Given recent experience, I think the chance of breaking the max temp record is much greater than the chance of breaking the min temp one.
  9. LOL. Because of the orientation of the anafrontal wave/energy aloft relative to the advancing cold air, the new ECMWF shows better chances for an inch or two of accumulating snow from SE VA to the Delmarva peninsula, than over N NJ, NYC, LI and southern coastal CT.
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