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Yaakov last won the day on June 11

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  1. Just an update on the storm in Israel. It was a once in 10 to 20 year magnitude rain event. A large portion of central and northern Israel received between 80 and 200 mm (3 to 8"), with local amounts as high as 250 mm in areas between Rehovot and the eastern suburbs of Tel Aviv. In my 12 years of living in Israel, I cannot remember an event where it rained continuously with very few breaks for such a long time - about 60 hours in most areas. The precipitation was convective in nature for much of the event, yet even in the breaks between rounds of heavy rain, lighter rains continued. Large sections of highways and roads, including the major one in Tel Aviv (The Ayalon Highway) were closed for a time during the storm due to flooding. Many people had to be rescued from their cars. These articles have some nice pictures and videos of the flooding: https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-5421567,00.html https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/health-q4_2018/Article-a69ba294d5b8761004.htm The north-south gradient in the rainfall was very sharp around the Jerusalem area. In Givat Ze'ev, about 10 km north of Jerusalem, 146 mm of rain fell. In Jerusalem itself, around 70-80 mm fell. In Rosh Tzurim, about 12 km south of Jerusalem, only 30 mm fell!
  2. A classic winter storm began to impact central and northern portions of Israel today with strong wind gusts and very heavy rain, leading to locally severe flooding. These types of storm systems, called "Cyprus lows", bring more than 75% of Israel's annual precipitation. Below is a loop of the storm's development aloft at 500 mb. Note how there is a cutoff low in the southern stream over the eastern Mediterranean on Tue that moves slowly east and gradually opens up, then gets reinvigorated as it phases with a vort that breaks off from a northern stream trough passing through Romania/Bulgaria and into the Black Sea today into Fri. Also note how the northeastern edge of the ridge pokes northeast from Spain/France into central Europe as the northern stream digs down into southeastern Europe. Between 40 and 75 mm (1.6 to 3") of rain has fallen in much of the central and southern coastal plain and the Judean foothills, with 20 to 30 mm in Jerusalem and around 40 mm where I live in the easternmost Samarian Hills. Totals by the end of the event are expected to be nearly double the current rainfall amounts. It is unusual but not unprecedented to see such high rainfall totals so early in the rainy season (the peak months of the rainy season are Jan and Feb, with the wet season as a whole generally running from Oct to early May). Also, snow has fallen today for the first time in the season on Mount Hermon, Israel's only ski area. Here are webcams there (much more useful during the day - from around midnight to 10 AM US Easern time): https://www.skihermon.co.il/en/ Two articles about the flooding: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/50-israeli-children-rescued-by-boat-in-winter-s-heaviest-rainstorm-1.6722524 https://www.timesofisrael.com/50-preschoolers-rescued-by-boat-in-flooded-rehovot-as-rains-lash-central-israel/ " Meanwhile, one of Tel Aviv’s key intersections, Azrieli Junction, was brought to a standstill when water damage caused the traffic light system in the area to fail. " "Fifty children and two teachers were rescued by small boat after a kindergarten complex flooded in the central Israeli city of Rehovot on Thursday."
  3. Yaakov

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    I will say this - I do think this storm trends north of most non-GEPS guidance, but there likely will be a sharp northern cutoff with lingering confluence. Lots of time to watch things evolve. I am concerned about the stale cold air both at the surface and aloft, as others have mentioned. With Chanukah starting a few days ago and having lost my mother two weeks ago, haven't had a lot of time to review this threat in depth.
  4. Yes - Heaviest snowfall on record so early in the season for NYC Central Park!
  5. There are a lot of similarities to Nov 7, 2012 in terms of forecasts even the same day calling for little to no accumulations. On the morning of Nov 7, 2012 (about 8 hours before the snow began), winter wx advisories were out for only W. Passaic County, NJ and Orange and Passaic Counties, NY for 2-4". Around 1" was forecast from E. Passaic and W. Bergen Counties in NJ to Rockland County, NY, and little to no accum was forecast for NYC/LI.
  6. Besides Oct 2011, here are three winter storms that produced 10"+ in at least part of the major Northeast US metropolitan areas: Nov 6-7, 1953 (DC, Baltimore, PHL metro): http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2007/11/november-1953-snowstorm.html Nov 11-12, 1987 (DC, Baltimore, NYC, Boston metro, but 10"+ totals scattered and very banded) Nov 26-27, 1898: (PHL, NYC, Boston metro - totals locally as high as two feet in s. CT and central MA) http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1898.html
  7. This is in Bucks County, southeast PA
  8. Spotter reports show a widespread 2.5-5" across the NYC metro area. All reports are from the past hour. Note the report times in the upper left were converted to Israel time, so need to subtract 7 hours to get the actual report time. Link to follow these reports: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/ (you can change the forecast office in the menu on the upper left)
  9. I wonder if this will end up being one of the relatively rare South Shore jackpot events.
  10. So much for those ~5:1 snow-water ratios some were expecting. Around 10 to 12:1 at EWR and JFK so far. The higher ratios than expected may be due to excellent lift in the dendritic growth zone. KEWR 152051Z 02011KT 1/2SM R04R/2400V3500FT SN OVC003 M02/M02 A3032 RMK AO2 SLP265 CIG 002V005 SNINCR 2/4 P0019 60035 T10171017 55037 $ KJFK 152051Z 05010KT 1/4SM R04R/2600V4000FT SN FG VV006 00/00 A3032 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP267 SNINCR 2/3 P0013 60025 T00000000 55040 The Nov 7, 2012 snowstorm had ratios of between 6 and 9: 1 in NYC and nearby suburbs.
  11. If NYC Central Park can get above 3", this would be a truly historic snowfall for so early in the year. Below is a list of pre-Nov 20 snowfalls of at least 1" in Central Park. Note there have been only 4 such occurrences in the past 100 years! Interestingly, the two heaviest ones were in this decade. The only one over 3" was in Nov 2012. 11/16/1872 - 1.0" 11/18/1873 - 2.0" 11/6/1879 - 2.5" 11/9/1892 - 2.3" 11/15/1906 - 1.0" 11/14/1911 - 1.0" 11/6/1953 - 2.2" 11/1/1987 - 1.1" 10/31/2011 - 2.9" 11/7/2012 - 4.7"
  12. Heavy snow in Philly and Wilmington, DE, as well as portions of central.and southern NJ (Trenton and Mount Holly): KPNE 151754Z 04010KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV005 M01/M02 A3039 RMK AO2 SLP291 P0015 60020 T10061022 10022 21006 56031 RVRNO KILG 151651Z 04010KT 1/4SM R01/2600V3500FT +SN FZFG FEW005 OVC009 M01/M02 A3039 RMK AO2 SLP292 P0009 T10111017 KTTN 151753Z 04008KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M01/M03 A3038 RMK AO2 SLP283 P0000 60000 T10111028 10006 21011 58032 KVAY 151807Z AUTO 04006KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M01/M01 A3037 RMK AO2 P0000 T10061006
  13. Agree that it is nowcast time, but high-res mesoscale models still have value in resolving the important fine details. Here are some links that will help with this: 1) Hourly GFS and NAM (12 km) charts for individual stations- http://coolwx.com/modelts 2) Two sites for HRRR charts zoomed in on ne US: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_alb.php http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&r=us_ne 3) Text output for NAM, RAP, etc: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm 4) BUFKIT- excellent model analysis software Data- http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit Software and instructions- https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/tools
  14. That graphic is 3-hourly snowfall, not hourly... Thus it is showing a Max of 2" accumulation in 3 hours.