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Yaakov

Meteorologist
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About Yaakov

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    Jerusalem, Israel

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  1. There is good reason to be skeptical of seasonal and even some sub-seasonal models showing a dry Sahel and Atlantic MDR in the next few months:
  2. Snowing and sticking in the Berkshires
  3. While monitoring the potential systems next week and beyond, I would keep a close eye on the Fri-Sat system. Recent trends in several models (ECMWF, UKMET, NAM) have been to keep the shortwave more amplified allowing the slug of heavier precip to shift closer to coastal NJ/LI/southeast New England. Note how the 850 low on the ECMWF closes off quicker than previous runs, with stronger SE winds at 850 mb ahead of the system than previous runs showed. WAA is quite strong which means most of the se half of NJ will likely turn to rain. Some models like the RGEM are even more amplified and turn even NYC/LI/S CT over to rain, but the ECMWF holds in just enough cold air that those areas would most stay mainly snow. It's a thread-the-needle type scenario as the antecedent cold air is rather stale and the WAA needed to bring heavier precip closer to the coast also brings changeover risks.
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