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Yaakov last won the day on May 12

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  1. Snowing and sticking in the Berkshires
  2. While monitoring the potential systems next week and beyond, I would keep a close eye on the Fri-Sat system. Recent trends in several models (ECMWF, UKMET, NAM) have been to keep the shortwave more amplified allowing the slug of heavier precip to shift closer to coastal NJ/LI/southeast New England. Note how the 850 low on the ECMWF closes off quicker than previous runs, with stronger SE winds at 850 mb ahead of the system than previous runs showed. WAA is quite strong which means most of the se half of NJ will likely turn to rain. Some models like the RGEM are even more amplified and turn even NYC/LI/S CT over to rain, but the ECMWF holds in just enough cold air that those areas would most stay mainly snow. It's a thread-the-needle type scenario as the antecedent cold air is rather stale and the WAA needed to bring heavier precip closer to the coast also brings changeover risks.
  3. Jerusalem, Israel: 1" Efrat, Israel (near Jerusalem but 150 m higher in elevation): 4" Mount Hermon, Israel: About 40" The snow in Jerusalem and surrounding areas fell in mid-Jan 2019, after four years (!) of no snow accumulation. Last snow before that was a Feb 2015 blizzard that brought about 10-14" (with 3" inch/hour rates and lots of thunder-snow at its peak).
  4. Thanks! It's nice to finally have some potential events to track.
  5. Note how much slower the EPS mean has trended with the shortwave related to our storm, and how much more separation there is between the southern and northern stream in both the EPS and GEFS vs. 24 hours ago (related to a more amplified and westerly-placed upstream ridge). These are positive trends. With the slower/more separated trends in the s. stream system, there is a growing chance the PV lobe will be able to exit out of the way to the NE in a favorable way. However, the exiting PV lobe could still provide significant resistance to northward expansion of precipitation depending on timing, especially over New England.
  6. Just an update on the storm in Israel. It was a once in 10 to 20 year magnitude rain event. A large portion of central and northern Israel received between 80 and 200 mm (3 to 8"), with local amounts as high as 250 mm in areas between Rehovot and the eastern suburbs of Tel Aviv. In my 12 years of living in Israel, I cannot remember an event where it rained continuously with very few breaks for such a long time - about 60 hours in most areas. The precipitation was convective in nature for much of the event, yet even in the breaks between rounds of heavy rain, lighter rains continued. Large sections of highways and roads, including the major one in Tel Aviv (The Ayalon Highway) were closed for a time during the storm due to flooding. Many people had to be rescued from their cars. These articles have some nice pictures and videos of the flooding: https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-5421567,00.html https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/health-q4_2018/Article-a69ba294d5b8761004.htm The north-south gradient in the rainfall was very sharp around the Jerusalem area. In Givat Ze'ev, about 10 km north of Jerusalem, 146 mm of rain fell. In Jerusalem itself, around 70-80 mm fell. In Rosh Tzurim, about 12 km south of Jerusalem, only 30 mm fell!
  7. A classic winter storm began to impact central and northern portions of Israel today with strong wind gusts and very heavy rain, leading to locally severe flooding. These types of storm systems, called "Cyprus lows", bring more than 75% of Israel's annual precipitation. Below is a loop of the storm's development aloft at 500 mb. Note how there is a cutoff low in the southern stream over the eastern Mediterranean on Tue that moves slowly east and gradually opens up, then gets reinvigorated as it phases with a vort that breaks off from a northern stream trough passing through Romania/Bulgaria and into the Black Sea today into Fri. Also note how the northeastern edge of the ridge pokes northeast from Spain/France into central Europe as the northern stream digs down into southeastern Europe. Between 40 and 75 mm (1.6 to 3") of rain has fallen in much of the central and southern coastal plain and the Judean foothills, with 20 to 30 mm in Jerusalem and around 40 mm where I live in the easternmost Samarian Hills. Totals by the end of the event are expected to be nearly double the current rainfall amounts. It is unusual but not unprecedented to see such high rainfall totals so early in the rainy season (the peak months of the rainy season are Jan and Feb, with the wet season as a whole generally running from Oct to early May). Also, snow has fallen today for the first time in the season on Mount Hermon, Israel's only ski area. Here are webcams there (much more useful during the day - from around midnight to 10 AM US Easern time): https://www.skihermon.co.il/en/ Two articles about the flooding: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/50-israeli-children-rescued-by-boat-in-winter-s-heaviest-rainstorm-1.6722524 https://www.timesofisrael.com/50-preschoolers-rescued-by-boat-in-flooded-rehovot-as-rains-lash-central-israel/ " Meanwhile, one of Tel Aviv’s key intersections, Azrieli Junction, was brought to a standstill when water damage caused the traffic light system in the area to fail. " "Fifty children and two teachers were rescued by small boat after a kindergarten complex flooded in the central Israeli city of Rehovot on Thursday."
  8. I will say this - I do think this storm trends north of most non-GEPS guidance, but there likely will be a sharp northern cutoff with lingering confluence. Lots of time to watch things evolve. I am concerned about the stale cold air both at the surface and aloft, as others have mentioned. With Chanukah starting a few days ago and having lost my mother two weeks ago, haven't had a lot of time to review this threat in depth.
  9. Yes - Heaviest snowfall on record so early in the season for NYC Central Park!
  10. There are a lot of similarities to Nov 7, 2012 in terms of forecasts even the same day calling for little to no accumulations. On the morning of Nov 7, 2012 (about 8 hours before the snow began), winter wx advisories were out for only W. Passaic County, NJ and Orange and Passaic Counties, NY for 2-4". Around 1" was forecast from E. Passaic and W. Bergen Counties in NJ to Rockland County, NY, and little to no accum was forecast for NYC/LI.
  11. Besides Oct 2011, here are three winter storms that produced 10"+ in at least part of the major Northeast US metropolitan areas: Nov 6-7, 1953 (DC, Baltimore, PHL metro): http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2007/11/november-1953-snowstorm.html Nov 11-12, 1987 (DC, Baltimore, NYC, Boston metro, but 10"+ totals scattered and very banded) Nov 26-27, 1898: (PHL, NYC, Boston metro - totals locally as high as two feet in s. CT and central MA) http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1898.html
  12. Spotter reports show a widespread 2.5-5" across the NYC metro area. All reports are from the past hour. Note the report times in the upper left were converted to Israel time, so need to subtract 7 hours to get the actual report time. Link to follow these reports: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/ (you can change the forecast office in the menu on the upper left)
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