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OleySnow

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  1. A reflective event would be ideal. It would reflect down to the troposphere and make its way to NW Canada/ Alaska which could then help to initiate an Alaskan Ridge. I think Feb/March time period will offer some real potential.
  2. Personally, there still is a lot to be decided with this winter, but it's primarily going to come down to these two aspects. It's the "Alaskan Ridge" regime that drives Arctic outbreaks and reflective events in the SPV have more immediate impacts. There isn't as much of a lag period with reflective events. A p7-8 mjo would produce great potential as an active STJ battles Arctic/ NW Canadian air. Feb and March could have great potential. And what about the state of the QBO? Will it finally become a complete easterly in late Jan/ early Feb?
  3. So, my hypothetical question is this, IF the mjo propagates to p7-8 and we see a reflective warming event that begins in Siberia and reflects to the trophosphere in Canada/ Alaska, might we see the "Alaskan Ridge regime" which would induce a -EPO with a split flow for February? Credit for pic goes to Simon Lee, Jason Furtado, and Charlton Perez.
  4. Might I also add that it seems to me, in more recent years, the fate of winter will rely on two factors: the MJO and the PV. With the PV going through its intensification phase for roughly 3-4 weeks, it's going to weaken again most likely between the 2nd and 3rd weeks of January. Will we see warming on the North Atlantic side? This image is suggestive that it just might happen. Credit goes to Ventrice for this as well. This is a composite of all North Atlantic initiated SSW's . Looks quite similar to me.
  5. Certainly coincides with these images from Ventrice for the 11-15 day.
  6. 32 with a real feel of 28 and it’s Mostly raining. Some sleet mixing in now and then.
  7. Has there been any research done with the Baffin Island block and East coast storms? I mean, this looks ideal, man.
  8. Well, this is the time of the year where it’s supposed to be its strongest.
  9. I was just thinking that earlier tonight when the wacky NAM came out (they should really stick a fork in that model). GFS is consistent though.
  10. See if guidance comes around to the idea of cyclogenesis forming along the front. That’ll increase rates a bit and maybe give someone a small jackpot. How much vertical ascent can we get outta’ this baby? We’ll see soon enough.
  11. 2-4 is a reasonable call at this time. You get the snowfall overnight. Temps can drop nicely and they will have to since the day prior will be on the mild side.
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