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MattHugo

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About MattHugo

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  • Birthday 04/23/1981

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  1. Can someone advance on this at some point... I've seen this highlighted a number of times now, but without clear discussion as to why. Given the combination of a slow downwelling SSW, but also with an atmosphere that, at times, was conducive to blocking patterns, why and, more importantly, how, would this year's SSW be a counterbalance and essentially stop the likes of the MJO imprinting itself onto the N Hem pattern? - Surely, no matter the speed of a downwell after a SSW, if you've got a favourable tropical evolution, in terms of +AAM and say MJO in phases 6-7-8, then these would "connect" to the -ve E'ly regime downwelling into the trop to help promote northern blocking regimes and tank the AO and NAO (?). At the beginning of the winter, there was a clear link between a transitional QBO from E'ly to W'ly essentially being another piece of the puzzle that would support a possible SSW further down the line. One analogy I remember seeing was "building a house on dodgy foundations" - While we are indeed transitioning to a W'ly QBO, because the lower levels would still be primarily E'ly then this could well promote a breakdown of the SPV, the SSW prediction this year was as good as I remember it. However, what seems to be a new one to me, is, again, how did this year's SSW, as some have mentioned, essentially spoil the party when, at times, the AAM and the MJO were both singing from the same hymn sheet. There's a clear disconnect this winter between the tropics and that of the higher lats, but further info on the above would be very interesting to read by those who have any answers/suggestions. Kind regards, Matt.
  2. It's a quick one but I really do look forward to reviewing this winter and picking out some of the primary reasons why predictions have gone so wrong, overall, especially from a UK and European perspective, especially with regards to the teleconnections etc. The last two weeks or so have been the quietest in here all winter and no surprise! Following on from my post last week, of course this just highlighting the AAM and MJO situation, then yet again the outlook just doesnt match what these "indicators" are/were showing; this perhaps the 3rd time now this winter, if not more, has there been a clear picture and guide, but for the outcome to fall short. It's been a long time since a winter promised a lot, but overall delivered very little from a UK but even European wide basis, there was a good tweet on that with a temp graphic from Ventrice yesteday. Not only has the likes of the MJO and AAM/GSDM been a 'swing and a miss', as a predictor/guide, but the likes of the EC Monthly have been incredibly 'way off' through much of the winter too, including seasonal models. These highly respected models (primarily of ECMWF origin, as usual), for whatever reason, equally falling short and there must be some analysis and review on this to learn and advance. Even the likes of the UKMO back in early January and for a number of weeks after were consistently highlighting a heightened risk of colder synoptics and weather, for nothing to really materialise. Did they follow the SSW "rule book" too literally as well, I wonder... One things for sure it is certainly a winter which shows that no matter the promise and analysis but many individuals, either on here, or else where the weather will always do what it wants to do; a good thing mind as otherwise I'd be out of a job! A frustrating, long, tedious winter is, thankfully, coming to a close and I've certainly learnt a lesson or two, or should I say had a few "revision lessons" on what to belive and what not to be belive perhaps too directly, and that includes the likes of GSDM/AAM. It's been quite the winter of disconnections and surprise really IMO more than anything. Kind regards, Matt.
  3. So, here we are again, some very interesting information coming from the GSDM site and also the MJO too. Won't ramble on too much as I've just noticed Zac has posted something while I've been typing this up, which no doubt correlates to the below. However, hopefully, the 'interference' that has been in evidence this winter is waning, the SSW has played through the system and hopefully, the MJO, especially given the predicted amplitude of the P7-P8 transition can be maintained. Granted the GFS has been 'off the scale' which does look unlikely but that aside it still looks a reasonable amplitude. The AAM remains very +ve indeed, the tendency of significance too and, in association (perhaps) with the S Am +MT the GWO plot has swung back towards P5 and will then, likely, transition towards P6-7 looking ahead. The MJO plots and composites below... IMO, the result of all of this is a continued prediction of the risk of significant blocking patterns now through the final third of winter and, most likely, through into early March as well. March, in recent years, really has become an extension of winter (speaking from a UK perspective in particular) and I expect that to be the same this year as well. The MJO composites for P7 and P8 for February are significant, note the P7 does tally reasonably well with the outlook into next week with a Scandinavian block, or at least a block to the east. However, the combination of the AAM plus an MJO moving through into P8 could well support (finally!) a Greenland blocking scenario. This has clearly been missing this winter, despite predictions and one could argue, this will not play out again, it may well not, but, compared with the winter to date, we are now on a different playing field, for a number of reasons and, finally, the Canadian vortex is not running the show over the W and NW Atlantic either. So, keep a close eye on model output for possible retrogression towards Greenland over the next 7 to 14 days and beyond. The late February and early March period could well be very interesting indeed. Granted, it is a time when the suns 'strength' is increasing and a more potent air mass is required for any significant cold weather and snow, but that, I believe remains a sound possibility and March, or at least the first half of it, is highly unlikely to deliver an early spring weather and may well be in keeping with some of the previous March's over the last few years. I look forward to those with a greater understanding of the connections and links between the 'system' to hopefully review the winter into early March and certainly place more emphasis on why, perhaps, there may well have been some sort of 'stalemate'. Perhaps the wQBO dampened the SSW, allowing the main TPV to remain solid in certain parts of the upper latitudes. The tropical forcing (MJO etc ) didn't possess the 'energy', if that's the right word, to breach the TPV structure, the slow downwelling not helping either perhaps, but the disconnect this winter has certainly been there for all to see compared to what many thought and predicted was a possibility back in Dec and into early Jan. However, and finally, there can be some late winter connection and link-up between the MJO, AAM and the mid-lats looking ahead... Kind regards to all, Matt.
  4. As ever, some great posts in here and thanks to the usual few, especially @Isotherm for some more detailed information on what may have been the cause for some of the failings so far this winter. For now, I'll remain quietly optimistic, despite a sense of 'time is running out'. What this winter has shown, especially from a UK perspective is that, once again, even beyond day 5 and 6 there can often be significant changes to the forecast. That is one of the reasons being a meteorologist in the UK is both equally exciting and frustrating at the same time, it doesn't take a lot to change the conditions across the UK and NW Europe very quickly, as compared with a Continental climate, for example. Yes, it has been a frustrating winter and I still stand by the post I made a few weeks back regarding the likes of the AAM and the MJO and how they haven't come to fruition this winter, especially when compared to what was predicted at times, this needs close review, especially by those more experienced in that area. The residual vortex left over by the SSW over N Canada has, IMO, certainly been one of the biggest 'players' to bugger up the N Atlantic pattern, predicting where any vortices would end up after a split SSW is surely impossible at any lead time. The AAM remains significantly +ve and the GWO is currently in the highest amplitude phase 5 and 6 as it has been all winter, FT does, however, remain -ve. The MJO has certainly been a frustrating variable as well this winter, as highlighted by a set few, phase 6 for January could lead to the below pattern, the allusive Greenland high. The GWO in phase 6 would also support a significant blocking regime over the N Atlantic and Greenland, again the allusive -NAO that has been searched for all winter. Many could 'throw the towel in' now given what has evolved this winter but, again, if 7 days is, at times, long range then who really knows what will develop through the rest of February and perhaps even into early March as well. IMO, there's no evidence to support a full-on zonal regime across the N Atlantic to end winter, meaning NW Europe will be dogged by a mild, wet and windy end. While the E'ly late last Feb and into early Mar was clearly an extreme for the UK it does highlight that cold synoptics can still deliver winter weather even in the UK later in the winter period, March 2013 was another example. Clearly, the SSW evolution different this year, another 'wildcard' IMO as well this has been, especially regarding the downwelling saga! It'll be interesting to read everyone's thoughts and reviews on this winter come March and beyond. It is definitely a winter a lot can be learned, sometimes when forecasts and predictions go array it can actually be a good thing moving forward, but, at times, the weather most certainly has given everyone the middle finger this winter, perhaps more so than was thought possible. Mother Nature hey, despite the science, the technology and the understanding, it still does what it wants to do no matter what...but that's both the exciting and frustrating aspect of meteorology and forecasting. Kind regards, best wishes, Matt.
  5. Are we 'struggling' for amplification once again?... Just one piece of the 'puzzle', I know, but yet again we seem to be struggling to get the AAM into a higher phase... The tendency seems to be on the way down as well, despite AAM remaining near +2SD. Clearly many pieces to the puzzle here, but what does stand out this winter, is the inability to be able to fully know what kind of downwelling will occur from an SSW to start with. Quick response or slow response, from my experience the latter, as we have now, is usually more associated with a displacement of the vortex, while a split, as we have had this winter more often than not leads to a quicker response, clearly not the case this year. A crude analogy but it's sort of like waiting for a late train, you know it'll arrive eventually, but knowing exactly when can lead to a frustrating and uncertain wait. Getting an SSW is one thing, but the slow downwelling this season has been noteworthy and important IMO. Equally, while not completely teleconnection related, but what myself and many others in met acknowledge as a primary 'stone in the shoe' for the UK winter is the Canadian vortex left over by the split. As usual, where any residual vortices end up is near impossible to predict, but without question that feature maintains low heights, deep cold and continues to provide a pronounced baroclinic environment within the W and NW Atlantic, ripe for cyclogenesis and this is surely not helping to get a -NAO regime. Just as the UK found out last week, the lack of amplification within the N Atlantic scuppered what looked to be a darn good chance of an E or NE'ly evolution. This remains a persist aspect of the short, medium and longer term forecasts at the moment IMO. The EC Monthly(Weeklies) has been very poor, especially regarding the signal for Greenland blocking and, overall, a -NAO regime, the cause is unknown really, but there are many aspects to this winter which are an unknown now. It'll be interesting to see if there is a rapid increase in MSLP towards the Greenland region with a more pronounced -NAO regime, especially given some recent pieces of info in this thread. -AO is one thing, but the NAO is certainly another. I'm now to be convinced this season, but time will tell as ever, and, like many aspects of meteorology and the weather despite the best minds, the weather can often do as it pleases, whether that matches predictions from a multitude of sources. Great posts of late, by the way, thanks for those continuing to take the time to post... Regards.
  6. Just quickly drop this in here, I used it on Twitter, RE: AAM developments and GWO, hopefully, the amplification finally makes an appearance this time around...
  7. Some great replies of late... Just a few thoughts and comments, but with mid-winter, meteorologically speaking, now here I think what needs to be acknowledged is despite the understanding and importance of the AAM/GWO/GSDM (take your pic) in the winter, just like any aspect of forecasting it has the ability to be wrong. There seems to be something of an underlying theme that the AAM etc is the 'be-all-and-end-all' when NWP output isn't really being of much use. Clearly, the theories and physics behind the AAM and how it can influence the evolution of the tropospheric patterns can't be discounted of course, that's not what I'm suggesting at all, but, again, there's still room for this to be wrong. That seems to have been the case, at times, this winter. With such 'strong' background signals at times, especially around the mid-December period, looking forward to the period we are in now, overall some predictions haven't become reality. One primary one that stands out to me is the lack of amplification of the GWO so far this winter... Given a number of posts regarding EAMT and spikes in AAM which clearly have occurred, at times, in recent weeks the end result hasn't always been as predicted. As can be seen from the last 40 days of GWO plots, despite the whole situation of the GWO only taking Relative AAM into consideration, that, to me is a poor plot against what was forecast and what was possible. Perhaps, at times, that has combined with the particularly slow downward propagation of the SSW to influence winter predictions and forecasts, especially with half of January now gone. Looking forward and, indeed, the MJO and Pacific developments continue to support favorable blocking patterns when using analogs, but these have also failed at times this winter too. That being said with the MJO now moving through P4-5 and likely into 6 then this does indeed support further +AAM trends, perhaps supported by additional +MT events as well. However, the $64,000 question is can we get a greater GWO amplitude, finally, to help the cause? I'm not so sure now... From a UK perspective what has been a pain in the ass is the remnant vortex over N/NE Canada that continues to be a thorn in the side of NWP output, especially now that deep troughing and cold is taking place over the CONUS with resultant cyclogenesis. This is creating all sorts of downstream issues with regards to potential WAA up to the W of Greenland (or not) and how that helps to build pressure within the N Atlantic domain. I won't post all the usual MJO and GWO analogs which match what may well occur over the next 7 to 14 days, the majority on this thread will no doubt have them and know what they portray, clearly, there's one in the last post anyway. There is a lot of winter left, but, again from a UK/NW Europe perspective time does quickly run out and you need a more significant cold synoptic to bring the cold weather that the cold lovers want, I included. A -5C to -10C 850mb air mass in an N or NE'ly flow in late Jan will have more potency than compared with late Feb/early Mar, for example, that's the way it works over here. Clearly, from a US perspective, that type of air mass is 'peanuts' and easily achievable. It'll be good to review the winter, come late Feb/early Mar just to see how it has panned out against predictions and teleconnection backgrounds. Despite my knowledge of the subject being inferior to others on this forum, I am currently being left underwhelmed, somewhat, by the AAM and the GWO this winter and how it could have or, should have influenced the patterns. The disclaimer here, particularly from a UK point of view is it is always 'close but no cigar', one could argue that between Christmas and essentially present day the blocking regimes have been there, but just a few hundred miles has made all the difference, I certainly appreciated that and understand that of course. It has been a particularly boring winter period, but despite all the background signals at the start of the winter, much of the UK has now progressed to mid-winter without even seeing a signal flake of snow and that includes higher elevations of N England and Scotland. There has been an unusual lack of winter weather which, even in a more zonal winter may well have made an appearance in association with temporary N or NW'ly flows. Blocking regimes are one thing, but it's all about getting them in the right place which I don't think likes of the AAM, MJO et al will help provide the answers, or not IMO. I just do hope, even for my own sake, that between now and the 28th of February some 'proper' winter weather arrives and the synoptics develop as the likes of the AAM, MJO and the SSW suggest that should/could do. I reserve further judgment until the end of the winter period. Equally, once the winter is over I have a great interest in reviewing how the AAM/GWO can influence summertime synoptics, where there links and connections between the AAM the what happened across the UK, last summer, for example, and the extreme blocking pattern there which lead to the warm and very dry summer. But that's for further down the line and another learning curve... Kind regards to all, Matt.
  8. Good god man!... There's a list and then there's a @Bring Back 1962-63 list!
  9. @Snowy Hibbo Thanks for your reply, Zac, appreciated. Firstly, I definitely think that is the case for December. I think it was one of your plots from weeks back as well that I spotted after doing one of my own, internally, for work where you just scribbled away and plot on the predicted track of the GWO given expected AAM and all the other variables that come into play. I've dug mine out (see below) and it was from the 13th of December when I produced this, clearly compared with what occurred; - It got nowhere near 5-6-7 again through December, especially mid-December. The question is, how did that influence/affect N Hem patterns as opposed to what could have happened if it had... What I wasn't aware mind was that the GWO only took into consideration Relative AAM and not Relative and Earth, as you've highlighted in your reply. A case of 'you learn something new every day'. I'm no physicist and don't really wish to get into the reason why that isn't the case, but seems something of a flaw to me, but, equally as you do highlight at least with that knowledge you can take into consideration other variables. What is interesting though is indeed how 'flat' the GWO did end up through December than compared with what many did predict. The UK/NW Europe has persistently been on the 'edge' of blocking regimes, but still, that didn't stop 131% of normal rainfall being observed here in Lancashire, NW England, along with a mean temperature anom of +1.5C |A horrid month even though it wasn't full-blown zonality across the N Atlantic! What that does bring me on to you, however, is your last plot. Given the information that GWO is only taking into consideration Relative AAM, could you not have foreseen this less amplified progression into early January at least? The below graphics you came up with a few days ago now seems as though it may well be too amplified, as was what I predicted and thought would be the case for early January too. I'm just trying to get a 'feel' and understanding as to whether the GWO can lead you up the garden path more often than not because, again, despite your knowledge of the subject you still seem to have amplified the GWO signal for early January too much, even though, officially it is indeed in phase 5-6-7, which wasn't really going to be questioned. The other question is; does the amplification of the GWO, like the MJO have 'bigger' impacts on the N Hem patterns or does it not matter?... However, the other way I was looking at it now is have you actually taken into consideration Relative and Earth AAM here and applied this to show what, in theory, the GWO should actually look like? - Again I'm just trying to figure out your train of thought given that you knew the GWO was only Relative based, but still amplified the GWO prediction more than what seems to be the case. Any feedback would be very much appreciated and of course, do let me know if I'm 'barking up the wrong tree' here, but I'm just trying to fill extra gaps and questions based on what yourself and the more knowledgeable individuals, on this subject, come out with. Cheers! M.
  10. Just a quick post, but I don't like the look of the low amp of the latest GWO update... Since November, despite clearly a number of +FT/+MT events to try and increase AAM it has failed to get into a higher amplitude. I'm wondering, perhaps someone could confirm, whether that is why the winter, so far, has been particularly "slow" and rather unimpressive. No doubt some other factors at play (MJO etc), but looking back at some predictions from myself and others on the forum, with regards to the GWO, it does look as though the AAM never did reach the predicted higher amplitudes phases of 5-6-7 through December, that perhaps is one of the reasons the UK has struggled with this particularly unimpressive regime of being in no-mans-land of anticyclonic gloom, never really getting the amplification, but never really getting a zonal blast either. Despite the recent and rather impressive +EAMT, that is now on the decline and the global +MT peak from late Dec doesn't look to have matched the two previous 'peaks' from back in Dec and Nov either. Has there been an overestimation since the start of winter for the AAM to end up in higher phases, but, in reality, it just hasn't, it looks that way to me(?) With MT and FT easing and tendency now dropping back to a more -ve state, then that isn't going to help the overall AAM at all and I'm wondering after just about sliding through low amp 5-6-7 it's going to end up back in the COD again within a week, as per most of Dec, surely that isn't going to help looking forward perhaps as much as some were thinking either in terms of jet amplification and aiding more blocked patterns through the mid-lats? Hopefully the strat implications and developments will win out now through downwelling etc, but, personally speaking, this is becoming one of the most tedious winters in some time now and is falling short of expectations, especially with another week or more of 'dross' to get through. Anything of potential significance in terms of a broader pattern change for the N Hem, or the N Atlantic (NAO and AO regime change on a more sig level to -ve) doesn't look to be until mid-January that's half of the winter gone! From a UK perspective, a more zonal pattern would potentially bring greater, temporary 'blasts' of Pm or Am NW or N flows than what has been experienced to date and certainly more interesting weather too. The persistence of the high pressure as well around NW Europe is nothing more than a nuisance now. Thoughts? Kind regards, Matt.
  11. Some great discussions in here, as usual, over the last week or more. Keep them coming!... Nothing 'fancy' from me in this post and the general 'day job' often gets in the way, but the learning curve continues to increase for me and, again, thanks to those more knowledgeable of the subject and the continued discussions as well. One of the best ways to learn, in my opinion, is to openly discuss the weather and various aspects of meteorology. Even if you're wide of the mark, at times, if you're discussing the situation with people who have sound knowledge of a specific subject then you'll more often than not be able to correct yourself and understand where you're going. I think that is what makes 33 one of the best places at the moment in this subject, I don't think anyone should be 'afraid' to post in this thread, whether a "master expert" or just an amateur. Won't ramble on too much regarding the EAMT and its progression, that's been covered, but was more interested in dropping in the analogs for positive MT (phase 5 GWO) and then also then, hopefully, the southward momentum transport across 35N analog (phase 6 GWO) for January. Clearly, when these are coupled with the likes of the MJO moving through phase 6 and 7 too, then the signal for a major northern blocking event/regime is surely as strong as it can possibly be. Clearly, this is being supported by the stratospheric split as well. It's been a tedious winter so far, December, locally here in the UK, has been horrid in terms of wet weather and mild temperatures and, from a UK perspective, does highlight just how difficult it is to get cold weather in December. All eyes on the rest of January and February, few weeks and mid-winter is upon as already (meteorologically speaking), so sooner things 'get going' the better. Equally, of interest, as a one-off, is a quick look at the EC ENS 10hPa below by the 15th. Clearly, and importantly, it maintains a split vortex through to mid-month. Should be some fascinating NWP output hopefully very soon, not just for the US, but over here in the UK too.
  12. Thanks for the reply. That's what I've been thinking, not entirely sure what the EC is up to. The individual Clusters are, however, more split with certainly that weaker progression within the N Atlantic, as the per the GFS and the GEFS as well, allowing that potential amplification and with the main upper trough and surface low trending down across the UK and then potentially into France and Mainland Europe. It'll be interesting to see if the EC does switch, but must admit despite the split within the Clusters, there are still which are even more cyclonic the EC, bringing deep lows and a horrid W or SW'ly type for Christmas. The EC Monthly update, however, is impressive with a major Scandy block that extends towards Greenland, with an Aleutian low and also with a weak -ve 500mb height anom over France and Iberia by early Jan. Just shouts out another E or NE'ly regime. As for the GWO composite, I was basing that comment on the below and obviously what has happened re; the +MT event(s). I guess, in a way, you could argue that there is some evidence for a weakness upstream over more western areas of the N Atlantic which could allow some amplification if you read between the lines. I guess it depends on how you interpret it or, as you say, perhaps it is not that relevant anyway if there is a lag effect. To an extent I think the AAM/GWO will sort of take care of itself now, it's helped the cause and continues to do so, it'll be the SSW, or likely SSW that will no doubt be the primary 'player' look further ahead into January. Just hope, simply as a cold fan, that some of the more recent GFS runs, for Christmas, come off as something more seasonal is always welcomed, as compared with the dreaded cyclonic W or SW'ly warm sector crap. Regards and thanks, Matt.
  13. Firstly, many thanks David for that last post a great read and, as ever, 'connecting the dots' certainly makes for an interesting outlook. I think what has been really interesting, wonderful in fact, about this last 2 months is how the initial signs and signals back in Oct and Nov have actually come to fruition and played out. A number of winter forecasts were obviously produced and published with clear discussion on the potential behavior of the AAM, MJO et al, and, to say we are so early in the winter period as well, to have what we have at the moment and are likely to get, especially strat wise, is mouthwatering for those 'cold fans' out there. As much as I like summer, I do love winter, so this is definitely going to be an interesting 'ride'... Just bringing things back to the next 7 to 10 days, in the run up to Christmas, I just wanted to highlight or at least see if some current thoughts may well hold some truth. I won't discuss the AAM/GWO in too much detail, as you've done that in the last post, but I just wanted to get some thoughts and feedback as to how the current +MT/+FT and AAM progression may (or perhaps may not!) be influencing the pattern across the N Atlantic. Just a quick look at those two charts and clearly it does look, as you say, we are progressing back towards phase 5. A GWO Dec composite for +MT does show a particularly cyclonic pattern across the N Atlantic and into the UK region, this is why I'm putting the question here, but to me there is clearly an injection of W'ly momentum there around 40N, as one would expect given the trend in total AAM, given the +MT event(s) in particular. There has, to me, in the general 'day job' been a trend for the Atlantic to have the rug pulled from under its feet beyond the 192/216hr time frame. Model runs, especially over the last few days show a cyclonic Atlantic next week but it then, crudely put, seems to have the energy 'sucked out of it' and we end up with a particularly weak looking N Atlantic pattern. This then sets the scene for potential amplification, especially as lows exit out of E Canada providing some WAA up towards Greenland. Two examples from the 00Z runs are the GFS Det and the GEFS ENS mean, must admit the EC, of late, has been less keen, but there has been some evidence within the EC Clusters Is the suggestion that a greater amount of W'ly moment within the sub-tropical regions, given recent AAM developments, may well help to aid in the reduction of the overall cyclonic pattern within the N Atlantic prior to Christmas, that's the main question? - Clearly, there's amplification there and that leaves the UK in a favorable pattern for at least a seasonal and cold Christmas this year. Equally, which is a little confusing to me is Ant Masiello, who, given recent tweets has been highlighting -MT looking ahead, just seems something of a disconnect there with those comments given what has recently gone on and what is to be expected as well, especially given your post above, I've not seen anyone else mention potential -MT and a trend towards -AAM through the coming few weeks. Many thanks to anyone who replies in due course. Matt.
  14. Gents, Find below two graphics, just quickly put together. As I've mentioned I'm trying to piece more and more information together to get an understanding of the connection and relationships and, from the two earlier posts I've tried to use an example to see if I'm either barking up the wrong tree or at least on the right lines. One example I thought of was the major Scandinavian blocking pattern in mid-November. I've tried to annotate the graphic as I see it and how the graphics and the AAM information would 'tell the story' and help support that previous blocking regime. Can 'Catacol' or anyone please either shoot me down in flames with reasoning please or confirm what I've put in the graphics holds some weight and I'm thinking along the right lines. PS: Apols if any grammar/text errors, quick Paint job after a long forecasting shift! Many thanks once again...
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