MattHugo - 33andrain Jump to content

MattHugo

Meteorologist
  • Content Count

    28
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

178 Excellent

1 Follower

About MattHugo

  • Rank
    Member
  • Birthday 04/23/1981

Personal Information

  • Location
    Rossendale, Lancashire

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Are we 'struggling' for amplification once again?... Just one piece of the 'puzzle', I know, but yet again we seem to be struggling to get the AAM into a higher phase... The tendency seems to be on the way down as well, despite AAM remaining near +2SD. Clearly many pieces to the puzzle here, but what does stand out this winter, is the inability to be able to fully know what kind of downwelling will occur from an SSW to start with. Quick response or slow response, from my experience the latter, as we have now, is usually more associated with a displacement of the vortex, while a split, as we have had this winter more often than not leads to a quicker response, clearly not the case this year. A crude analogy but it's sort of like waiting for a late train, you know it'll arrive eventually, but knowing exactly when can lead to a frustrating and uncertain wait. Getting an SSW is one thing, but the slow downwelling this season has been noteworthy and important IMO. Equally, while not completely teleconnection related, but what myself and many others in met acknowledge as a primary 'stone in the shoe' for the UK winter is the Canadian vortex left over by the split. As usual, where any residual vortices end up is near impossible to predict, but without question that feature maintains low heights, deep cold and continues to provide a pronounced baroclinic environment within the W and NW Atlantic, ripe for cyclogenesis and this is surely not helping to get a -NAO regime. Just as the UK found out last week, the lack of amplification within the N Atlantic scuppered what looked to be a darn good chance of an E or NE'ly evolution. This remains a persist aspect of the short, medium and longer term forecasts at the moment IMO. The EC Monthly(Weeklies) has been very poor, especially regarding the signal for Greenland blocking and, overall, a -NAO regime, the cause is unknown really, but there are many aspects to this winter which are an unknown now. It'll be interesting to see if there is a rapid increase in MSLP towards the Greenland region with a more pronounced -NAO regime, especially given some recent pieces of info in this thread. -AO is one thing, but the NAO is certainly another. I'm now to be convinced this season, but time will tell as ever, and, like many aspects of meteorology and the weather despite the best minds, the weather can often do as it pleases, whether that matches predictions from a multitude of sources. Great posts of late, by the way, thanks for those continuing to take the time to post... Regards.
  2. Just quickly drop this in here, I used it on Twitter, RE: AAM developments and GWO, hopefully, the amplification finally makes an appearance this time around...
  3. Some great replies of late... Just a few thoughts and comments, but with mid-winter, meteorologically speaking, now here I think what needs to be acknowledged is despite the understanding and importance of the AAM/GWO/GSDM (take your pic) in the winter, just like any aspect of forecasting it has the ability to be wrong. There seems to be something of an underlying theme that the AAM etc is the 'be-all-and-end-all' when NWP output isn't really being of much use. Clearly, the theories and physics behind the AAM and how it can influence the evolution of the tropospheric patterns can't be discounted of course, that's not what I'm suggesting at all, but, again, there's still room for this to be wrong. That seems to have been the case, at times, this winter. With such 'strong' background signals at times, especially around the mid-December period, looking forward to the period we are in now, overall some predictions haven't become reality. One primary one that stands out to me is the lack of amplification of the GWO so far this winter... Given a number of posts regarding EAMT and spikes in AAM which clearly have occurred, at times, in recent weeks the end result hasn't always been as predicted. As can be seen from the last 40 days of GWO plots, despite the whole situation of the GWO only taking Relative AAM into consideration, that, to me is a poor plot against what was forecast and what was possible. Perhaps, at times, that has combined with the particularly slow downward propagation of the SSW to influence winter predictions and forecasts, especially with half of January now gone. Looking forward and, indeed, the MJO and Pacific developments continue to support favorable blocking patterns when using analogs, but these have also failed at times this winter too. That being said with the MJO now moving through P4-5 and likely into 6 then this does indeed support further +AAM trends, perhaps supported by additional +MT events as well. However, the $64,000 question is can we get a greater GWO amplitude, finally, to help the cause? I'm not so sure now... From a UK perspective what has been a pain in the ass is the remnant vortex over N/NE Canada that continues to be a thorn in the side of NWP output, especially now that deep troughing and cold is taking place over the CONUS with resultant cyclogenesis. This is creating all sorts of downstream issues with regards to potential WAA up to the W of Greenland (or not) and how that helps to build pressure within the N Atlantic domain. I won't post all the usual MJO and GWO analogs which match what may well occur over the next 7 to 14 days, the majority on this thread will no doubt have them and know what they portray, clearly, there's one in the last post anyway. There is a lot of winter left, but, again from a UK/NW Europe perspective time does quickly run out and you need a more significant cold synoptic to bring the cold weather that the cold lovers want, I included. A -5C to -10C 850mb air mass in an N or NE'ly flow in late Jan will have more potency than compared with late Feb/early Mar, for example, that's the way it works over here. Clearly, from a US perspective, that type of air mass is 'peanuts' and easily achievable. It'll be good to review the winter, come late Feb/early Mar just to see how it has panned out against predictions and teleconnection backgrounds. Despite my knowledge of the subject being inferior to others on this forum, I am currently being left underwhelmed, somewhat, by the AAM and the GWO this winter and how it could have or, should have influenced the patterns. The disclaimer here, particularly from a UK point of view is it is always 'close but no cigar', one could argue that between Christmas and essentially present day the blocking regimes have been there, but just a few hundred miles has made all the difference, I certainly appreciated that and understand that of course. It has been a particularly boring winter period, but despite all the background signals at the start of the winter, much of the UK has now progressed to mid-winter without even seeing a signal flake of snow and that includes higher elevations of N England and Scotland. There has been an unusual lack of winter weather which, even in a more zonal winter may well have made an appearance in association with temporary N or NW'ly flows. Blocking regimes are one thing, but it's all about getting them in the right place which I don't think likes of the AAM, MJO et al will help provide the answers, or not IMO. I just do hope, even for my own sake, that between now and the 28th of February some 'proper' winter weather arrives and the synoptics develop as the likes of the AAM, MJO and the SSW suggest that should/could do. I reserve further judgment until the end of the winter period. Equally, once the winter is over I have a great interest in reviewing how the AAM/GWO can influence summertime synoptics, where there links and connections between the AAM the what happened across the UK, last summer, for example, and the extreme blocking pattern there which lead to the warm and very dry summer. But that's for further down the line and another learning curve... Kind regards to all, Matt.
  4. Good god man!... There's a list and then there's a @Bring Back 1962-63 list!
  5. Superb... Many thanks! Matt.
  6. @Snowy Hibbo Thanks for your reply, Zac, appreciated. Firstly, I definitely think that is the case for December. I think it was one of your plots from weeks back as well that I spotted after doing one of my own, internally, for work where you just scribbled away and plot on the predicted track of the GWO given expected AAM and all the other variables that come into play. I've dug mine out (see below) and it was from the 13th of December when I produced this, clearly compared with what occurred; - It got nowhere near 5-6-7 again through December, especially mid-December. The question is, how did that influence/affect N Hem patterns as opposed to what could have happened if it had... What I wasn't aware mind was that the GWO only took into consideration Relative AAM and not Relative and Earth, as you've highlighted in your reply. A case of 'you learn something new every day'. I'm no physicist and don't really wish to get into the reason why that isn't the case, but seems something of a flaw to me, but, equally as you do highlight at least with that knowledge you can take into consideration other variables. What is interesting though is indeed how 'flat' the GWO did end up through December than compared with what many did predict. The UK/NW Europe has persistently been on the 'edge' of blocking regimes, but still, that didn't stop 131% of normal rainfall being observed here in Lancashire, NW England, along with a mean temperature anom of +1.5C |A horrid month even though it wasn't full-blown zonality across the N Atlantic! What that does bring me on to you, however, is your last plot. Given the information that GWO is only taking into consideration Relative AAM, could you not have foreseen this less amplified progression into early January at least? The below graphics you came up with a few days ago now seems as though it may well be too amplified, as was what I predicted and thought would be the case for early January too. I'm just trying to get a 'feel' and understanding as to whether the GWO can lead you up the garden path more often than not because, again, despite your knowledge of the subject you still seem to have amplified the GWO signal for early January too much, even though, officially it is indeed in phase 5-6-7, which wasn't really going to be questioned. The other question is; does the amplification of the GWO, like the MJO have 'bigger' impacts on the N Hem patterns or does it not matter?... However, the other way I was looking at it now is have you actually taken into consideration Relative and Earth AAM here and applied this to show what, in theory, the GWO should actually look like? - Again I'm just trying to figure out your train of thought given that you knew the GWO was only Relative based, but still amplified the GWO prediction more than what seems to be the case. Any feedback would be very much appreciated and of course, do let me know if I'm 'barking up the wrong tree' here, but I'm just trying to fill extra gaps and questions based on what yourself and the more knowledgeable individuals, on this subject, come out with. Cheers! M.
  7. Just a quick post, but I don't like the look of the low amp of the latest GWO update... Since November, despite clearly a number of +FT/+MT events to try and increase AAM it has failed to get into a higher amplitude. I'm wondering, perhaps someone could confirm, whether that is why the winter, so far, has been particularly "slow" and rather unimpressive. No doubt some other factors at play (MJO etc), but looking back at some predictions from myself and others on the forum, with regards to the GWO, it does look as though the AAM never did reach the predicted higher amplitudes phases of 5-6-7 through December, that perhaps is one of the reasons the UK has struggled with this particularly unimpressive regime of being in no-mans-land of anticyclonic gloom, never really getting the amplification, but never really getting a zonal blast either. Despite the recent and rather impressive +EAMT, that is now on the decline and the global +MT peak from late Dec doesn't look to have matched the two previous 'peaks' from back in Dec and Nov either. Has there been an overestimation since the start of winter for the AAM to end up in higher phases, but, in reality, it just hasn't, it looks that way to me(?) With MT and FT easing and tendency now dropping back to a more -ve state, then that isn't going to help the overall AAM at all and I'm wondering after just about sliding through low amp 5-6-7 it's going to end up back in the COD again within a week, as per most of Dec, surely that isn't going to help looking forward perhaps as much as some were thinking either in terms of jet amplification and aiding more blocked patterns through the mid-lats? Hopefully the strat implications and developments will win out now through downwelling etc, but, personally speaking, this is becoming one of the most tedious winters in some time now and is falling short of expectations, especially with another week or more of 'dross' to get through. Anything of potential significance in terms of a broader pattern change for the N Hem, or the N Atlantic (NAO and AO regime change on a more sig level to -ve) doesn't look to be until mid-January that's half of the winter gone! From a UK perspective, a more zonal pattern would potentially bring greater, temporary 'blasts' of Pm or Am NW or N flows than what has been experienced to date and certainly more interesting weather too. The persistence of the high pressure as well around NW Europe is nothing more than a nuisance now. Thoughts? Kind regards, Matt.
  8. Some great discussions in here, as usual, over the last week or more. Keep them coming!... Nothing 'fancy' from me in this post and the general 'day job' often gets in the way, but the learning curve continues to increase for me and, again, thanks to those more knowledgeable of the subject and the continued discussions as well. One of the best ways to learn, in my opinion, is to openly discuss the weather and various aspects of meteorology. Even if you're wide of the mark, at times, if you're discussing the situation with people who have sound knowledge of a specific subject then you'll more often than not be able to correct yourself and understand where you're going. I think that is what makes 33 one of the best places at the moment in this subject, I don't think anyone should be 'afraid' to post in this thread, whether a "master expert" or just an amateur. Won't ramble on too much regarding the EAMT and its progression, that's been covered, but was more interested in dropping in the analogs for positive MT (phase 5 GWO) and then also then, hopefully, the southward momentum transport across 35N analog (phase 6 GWO) for January. Clearly, when these are coupled with the likes of the MJO moving through phase 6 and 7 too, then the signal for a major northern blocking event/regime is surely as strong as it can possibly be. Clearly, this is being supported by the stratospheric split as well. It's been a tedious winter so far, December, locally here in the UK, has been horrid in terms of wet weather and mild temperatures and, from a UK perspective, does highlight just how difficult it is to get cold weather in December. All eyes on the rest of January and February, few weeks and mid-winter is upon as already (meteorologically speaking), so sooner things 'get going' the better. Equally, of interest, as a one-off, is a quick look at the EC ENS 10hPa below by the 15th. Clearly, and importantly, it maintains a split vortex through to mid-month. Should be some fascinating NWP output hopefully very soon, not just for the US, but over here in the UK too.
  9. Thanks for the reply. That's what I've been thinking, not entirely sure what the EC is up to. The individual Clusters are, however, more split with certainly that weaker progression within the N Atlantic, as the per the GFS and the GEFS as well, allowing that potential amplification and with the main upper trough and surface low trending down across the UK and then potentially into France and Mainland Europe. It'll be interesting to see if the EC does switch, but must admit despite the split within the Clusters, there are still which are even more cyclonic the EC, bringing deep lows and a horrid W or SW'ly type for Christmas. The EC Monthly update, however, is impressive with a major Scandy block that extends towards Greenland, with an Aleutian low and also with a weak -ve 500mb height anom over France and Iberia by early Jan. Just shouts out another E or NE'ly regime. As for the GWO composite, I was basing that comment on the below and obviously what has happened re; the +MT event(s). I guess, in a way, you could argue that there is some evidence for a weakness upstream over more western areas of the N Atlantic which could allow some amplification if you read between the lines. I guess it depends on how you interpret it or, as you say, perhaps it is not that relevant anyway if there is a lag effect. To an extent I think the AAM/GWO will sort of take care of itself now, it's helped the cause and continues to do so, it'll be the SSW, or likely SSW that will no doubt be the primary 'player' look further ahead into January. Just hope, simply as a cold fan, that some of the more recent GFS runs, for Christmas, come off as something more seasonal is always welcomed, as compared with the dreaded cyclonic W or SW'ly warm sector crap. Regards and thanks, Matt.
  10. Firstly, many thanks David for that last post a great read and, as ever, 'connecting the dots' certainly makes for an interesting outlook. I think what has been really interesting, wonderful in fact, about this last 2 months is how the initial signs and signals back in Oct and Nov have actually come to fruition and played out. A number of winter forecasts were obviously produced and published with clear discussion on the potential behavior of the AAM, MJO et al, and, to say we are so early in the winter period as well, to have what we have at the moment and are likely to get, especially strat wise, is mouthwatering for those 'cold fans' out there. As much as I like summer, I do love winter, so this is definitely going to be an interesting 'ride'... Just bringing things back to the next 7 to 10 days, in the run up to Christmas, I just wanted to highlight or at least see if some current thoughts may well hold some truth. I won't discuss the AAM/GWO in too much detail, as you've done that in the last post, but I just wanted to get some thoughts and feedback as to how the current +MT/+FT and AAM progression may (or perhaps may not!) be influencing the pattern across the N Atlantic. Just a quick look at those two charts and clearly it does look, as you say, we are progressing back towards phase 5. A GWO Dec composite for +MT does show a particularly cyclonic pattern across the N Atlantic and into the UK region, this is why I'm putting the question here, but to me there is clearly an injection of W'ly momentum there around 40N, as one would expect given the trend in total AAM, given the +MT event(s) in particular. There has, to me, in the general 'day job' been a trend for the Atlantic to have the rug pulled from under its feet beyond the 192/216hr time frame. Model runs, especially over the last few days show a cyclonic Atlantic next week but it then, crudely put, seems to have the energy 'sucked out of it' and we end up with a particularly weak looking N Atlantic pattern. This then sets the scene for potential amplification, especially as lows exit out of E Canada providing some WAA up towards Greenland. Two examples from the 00Z runs are the GFS Det and the GEFS ENS mean, must admit the EC, of late, has been less keen, but there has been some evidence within the EC Clusters Is the suggestion that a greater amount of W'ly moment within the sub-tropical regions, given recent AAM developments, may well help to aid in the reduction of the overall cyclonic pattern within the N Atlantic prior to Christmas, that's the main question? - Clearly, there's amplification there and that leaves the UK in a favorable pattern for at least a seasonal and cold Christmas this year. Equally, which is a little confusing to me is Ant Masiello, who, given recent tweets has been highlighting -MT looking ahead, just seems something of a disconnect there with those comments given what has recently gone on and what is to be expected as well, especially given your post above, I've not seen anyone else mention potential -MT and a trend towards -AAM through the coming few weeks. Many thanks to anyone who replies in due course. Matt.
  11. Gents, Find below two graphics, just quickly put together. As I've mentioned I'm trying to piece more and more information together to get an understanding of the connection and relationships and, from the two earlier posts I've tried to use an example to see if I'm either barking up the wrong tree or at least on the right lines. One example I thought of was the major Scandinavian blocking pattern in mid-November. I've tried to annotate the graphic as I see it and how the graphics and the AAM information would 'tell the story' and help support that previous blocking regime. Can 'Catacol' or anyone please either shoot me down in flames with reasoning please or confirm what I've put in the graphics holds some weight and I'm thinking along the right lines. PS: Apols if any grammar/text errors, quick Paint job after a long forecasting shift! Many thanks once again...
  12. Many thanks guys for those two recent replies. Very much appreciated and just what I was after. Qualified met or not yourselves are certainly more qualified in this area of met than I, despite some general understanding of the processes. As I mentioned in the post yesterday I just feel the need to further this knowledge for my own sake and, again, I'll be waffling away in coming days and weeks to continue to put into practice the whole AAM situation and it's impacts on the synoptic patterns. Please do keep the posts coming whether agreeing or disagreeing, that's a great way to learn, or it is for me. Thanks.
  13. Just a quick update with some latest thoughts. Overnight 00Z model runs have really increased the cyclonic pattern across the N Atlantic and of which essentially 'blows away' the Scandinavian block in approximately a weeks time. There's very little evidence for under-cutting or trough disruption with the block remaining a dominant force and that is supported by the general MSLP trends from both the GEFS and the EC ENS too. I'm somewhat surprised that the Scandinavian blocking regime, given some of the comments above, could well be removed so easily. Clearly, the relative AAM tendency has indeed 'gone through the floor' as can be seen below, I believe particularly in association with the -ve MT, this does seem to be having some impacts on the overall AAM, just reducing it slightly, but clearly not sending this into a negative state, that doesn't look like happening. However, I'm wondering whether the GWO composite anom plot for moving into phase 8, which we are now, for December has some impact on why a more cyclonic outlook is expected in roughly a weeks time. Has there been some underestimation here as to the impact of the -ve FT and MT? As a result, meaning that while the Scandinavian block does develop it is unlikely to be as sustainable as was possible. Clearly, given the MJO progression through the Indian Ocean and towards the Maritimes, it is that event, I believe, which could well bring us back around into GWO phase 5 plot, then up towards 6 and 7, as per Zac's graphic in an earlier message. Clearly, those phase states through Dec would then support a return to blocking regimes across the N Atlantic domain in some shape or form. However, can someone provide more 'meat on the bones' as to how the tendency has dropped so much and what may well be the primary cause to get the FT and MT back into a positive phase? Cheers, Matt.
  14. Thanks for the replies just helps the cause and helps to verify what I was thinking. Still need to focus attention on a few things looking forward but this seems to be a good winter to finally get on top of the AAM/GWO. I've sent 'Bring Back 62-63' (David) a direct message about where to get the GWO imagery and some general thoughts too. See below... "Yes it's interesting to see the tendency drop off so much and particularly the MT plots as well. Using the GWO phase plot that puts us around phase 8 into 1 which matches the 'live' plots you're discussing/after. Perhaps if we end up trending into phase 1 and 2 in association with the MJO perhaps that relates to the small window of opportunity of more unsettled and less cold weather that you're highlighting after this Scandy block next week, given less of a +AAM like of late. It does look as though NWP wants to push the block away in roughly a weeks time with a more cyclonic pattern evolving. Certainly no sign of retrogression as yet. However, given the MJO signal then that would certainly bring the risk of the tendency and MT to jump back +ve which is obviously back up to phase 5 on the GWO plot if we get the +ve MT in association with the MJO progression into the maritime region etc. Thanks for your time anyway. This has been an underlying interest of mine but it seems so far this winter that the AAM/GWO is particularly important and relevant and I wish to get on top of this to understand the processes and how it can be used as a forecasting tool in particular. The physics side of it less so, more how a+b=c and the c being the actual influence on the potential weather patterns ahead.etc. Not many replies yet on the teleconnect thread but I'll keep waffling away, best way to learn for me to actually try and put it into practice. I've not been one to sit and read pages and pages ofdocumentation it doesn't go in, not like it used too, so any guidance would be greatly appreciated moving forward. Even just snippets when you can. The GWO plot may well be right under your nose and you guys don't know about it, it's here as part of the GSDM site;"  http://gsdmsolutions.com/~gsdm/clim/gcm/  gwo_40d gwo_90d
  15. Latest GSDM outputs at the moment. While GLAAM remains high, the tendency has almost 'gone through the floor'... Equally, of significance seems to the development of a negative frictional torque along with a response in terms of MT as well. With the exception of S America, the others have trended sharply negative, particularly the global one in particular. The main question is this going to drive the GWO down into a lower phase moving forward, or is there other factors at play that meanwhile it may well transit into phase 8 a potential recovery back round to phase 4 or 5 could well develop? The compo anom for GWO 5 through Dec (Momentum Transport Across 35N) is certainly tallying nicely at the moment with the overall predicted N Hem pattern looking forward, especially regarding this signal for another Scandinavian blocking high which is likely to influence the weather here in the UK. I'm not entirely sure on the lag of these, but perhaps one could also argue that the phase 5 transit occurred during Nov and not Dec. Given the latest MJO signal could that be enough to kick it back up towards phase 5 again looking forward? Without question, it certainly looks as though it has aided the development of this Scandy block, but I'd be interesting to know where others thing the GWO will progress looking ahead... Cheers, Matt.
×