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MattHugo

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  1. MattHugo

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Regarding the MJO, there has definitely been a shift in the main models for the MJO to transition towards more of a phase 7-8-1 within the latter stages of November and through into early December. This has been a transition over the last week, prior to that there were fairly widespread discussions of the MJO ending up in the COD, this looks unlikely. The last EC Monthly data also portrays an OLR pattern that may well 'align' with what that post above was alluding to on Twitter as well. It does seem as though the tropical convection forecasts are pointing towards the MJO heading in a 7-8-1 'direction'. Clearly, these phases support more amplification to the N Hem pattern with further blocking episodes all of which *could* bring about further cold weather and with potential blocking regimes aid in the development of further wave 1 and wave 2 activity within the strat. The AAM budget is now well and truly +ve which could also aid in the development of more blocking regimes as well, or so I believe (those more educated in this specific area please correct me/advance on this if needs be)... Lastly, the current Wave 2 activity is forecast to ease, but looking at the wave 1 profile then by late November and into early December quite a significant Wave 1 event is looking increasingly likely. Clearly, the W1 event is unlikely to lead to a split, but it could well aid to remove the vortex from its natural 'home' over the pole by a displacement looking ahead, at least, at a minimum, creating additional duress on what is a strong vortex above 30hPa in particular no doubt aided by the wQBO higher up. If the predicted amplitudes of around 1100gpm do develop then this would put the event within the 90% percentile and would certainly be a noteworthy W1 event, actually quite similar to what happened last year. I've roughly highlighted the potential prediction (red line), as things stand below on the NASA plot.
  2. It's an interesting topic of discussion over here as well, as to whether the ECMWF is currently missing out to the GFS in terms of the evolution of the Scandinavian block and where that block then goes to in time. I can't paste the image as it's imagery directly from the ECMWF website, through work, but the EC Clusters show an almost 50/50 split looking ahead towards the 240hr time frame and beyond. The split being, an evolution similar to that of the GEFS where the Scandy block retrogresses towards Greenland and then becomes almost a semi-permanent feature by late Nov and into early Dec, or the other evolution is where the high over Scandy essentially can't 'hold its backside up' and it sinks down into Central Europe and the whole pattern then goes array, with little sign of blocking through towards the Greenland region. As I was discussing on Twitter last night and using the $64,000 question idiom, that is indeed the main question as to whether the block will retrogress and where we then go from there. For a change, not only is this evolution important to the N Atlantic and European weather but to the USA as well it would seem. The 06Z GFS ENS mean, as below, clearly highlights a near-record anom Scandy block, this certainly aiding the wave 2 activity within the strat, but then the evolution later in the period is almost 2009-esque... ...The main GEFS mean 500mb anom there by the 1st of Dec really is an impressive setup. From a UK perspective that would no doubt lead to a heightened risk of N or NE'lies, but the bigger picture is clearly one of a completely destroyed tropospheric vortex and this persistence for northern blocking to continue. That, to me, again, is the $64,000 question looking ahead; Will this disconnect between the strat and trop continue, perhaps aided by the on-going transition of the QBO (wQBO higher up, still eQBO) lower down. While an official SSW looks highly unlikely to me between now and early Dec, there does look to be the possibility of wave 1 activity after the current wave 2 event as well, so that may keep things under wraps, to an extent higher up. That being said, the way things are progressing through this late autumn period, its almost as the though the strat can do what it wants above 30hPa as its having little or no influence on what the trop wishes to do anyway! However, if there are signs for downwelling, eventually at least, and with an increasingly cyclonic, W'ly regime becomes apparent within the lower strat and the higher trop (200mb etc) then, IMO, it'll only be a matter of time before a more typical W'ly regime develops, especially across the N Atlantic and into Europe. Sometimes a gut feeling can be of worth, not scientific of course, but my money is on this blocking regime continuing into Dec with no sudden increase in the organization of the trop vortex, nor a more active PFJ and a more W'ly regime across higher latitudes. Long may the block continue too, as a fan of cold weather here in the UK. Best wishes, Matt.
  3. Apologies if it's the wrong thread to drop this in, but some of you may or may not know about the developments over at Copernicus and the ECMWF. This is a remarkable development in terms of freely available seasonal forecast charts from the likes of the ECMWF, UKMO, DWD, and others now, more information on this is as below... "On 13 November 2018, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) will enhance its seasonal forecast component. Starting from this month, the multi-system forecasts will include data from two more contributing centres: the German weather service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) and the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Il Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, CMCC). At the same time, in another important change, the new operational forecast system from Meteo-France, System 6, will replace their previous contribution (System 5) in the C3S multi-system. C3S forecast products, based on the three new systems mentioned above as well as those from ECMWF and the UK Met Office, will continue to be issued each month, on the 13th at 12UTC" The main link to all the available data from all the various Centres is below. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/?time=2018110100,720,2018120100&type=ensm&area=area20 Cheers, Matt.
  4. MattHugo

    Isotherm’s Winter Outlook 2018-19

    Echoing the sentiments of others a superb production and read. Definitely a case of worthwhile reading it twice! While the bias is clearly on the USA the info during the early sections of your forecast are worthwhile over 'this side of the pond', and the content continues to provide support now to what could be a very interesting winter not just over there but for the UK too. Many thanks. Matt.
  5. MattHugo

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    That last post is very interesting indeed and I wonder whether this has a connection to my last post and the MJO wave and development over the Indian Ocean. I've seen a number of links and discussions which seem to suggest that 'event' is all part of the bigger picture in this potential for a +EAMT event within the next week or two. It'll be very interesting to keep a close eye on GSDM solutions website looking forward to seeing what develops on there. Interestingly though, depending on who you ask, some would write off an SSW until at least January due to other variables, so your final comment is a particularly bold one. It'll be interesting to see if there is any sort of wave 1 or wave 2 activity towards the end of the month and into early Dec, because at the moment the vortex is ramping away and with little sign of any WAFz activity. If you go off the latest NASA forecast then we could once again be near record 60N 10hPa zonal wind speeds by the middle of November...Is it only a matter of time before that 'energy' downwells and influences the trop vortex I wonder(?)...that's the $64,000 question from a UK's perspective. However, what continues to fascinate me is the clear disconnect between the stratosphere and the troposphere. It's a well known period of the year here in the UK when stormy weather can often develop and we see the zonal flow and pattern evolve that then takes us into the early winter period. Many a year this is 'standard fair' and those winter lovers in the UK are then simply left wondering how are we going to break out of that pattern (+NAO regime) through December and before you know it January comes around and half the winter has gone! The model data here in the UK has been fascinating over the last couple of weeks. There were signs, last weekend, for potential blocking patterns to develop over Scandinavia. However, that signal was removed and quickly replaced by a more unsettled and stormy spell. However, as soon as that signal gained some consistency off the wheels came and the UK is now looking at a very mild spell, initially at least, due to the development of yet another significant blocking pattern just to the east. Indeed, a number of models now build the block far enough north to allow for more of an E'ly flow to eventually arrive, by next weekend, across the UK cooling things down. While I don't need to place any disclaimers here, regarding the GFS, as we all know what it can be like, the latest run of the GFS, indeed the 06Z provides a fascinating and darn right ridiculous evolution across Europe, the N Atlantic and towards Greenland looking forward, as exampled in the imagery below. The more typically zonal regime across this region of the N Hem just can't seem to get going. Depending on how you look at it one would argue that after such extensive blocking patterns then, eventually, a more zonal flow would eventually arrive. However, if the current indicators have impacts on the teleconnections, including the likes of the MJO, AAM et al, then I'm wondering whether December could be just as interesting as the middle and latter half of the winter, especially if an SSW were to occur further down the line. The northern hemispheric view at the end of the run is just too hard to believe! Look forward to any further thoughts and insight... Regards to all, Matt.
  6. MattHugo

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Just a quick post perhaps to get some feedback and further discussions, but perhaps something 'brewing' that may have some impacts further down the line. This looks quite a significant MJO event starting over the Indian ocean and then progressing eastwards through the next 14 days... ...There is definitely some evidence to suggest that the MJO may move around into P3,4 and 5 eventually over the next 7 to 14 days as well. Certainly, some spread there mind from whichever model source you look at and the amplification is certainly open to question as well. However, from my rather limited knowledge of this specific subject and the interaction of the MJO/GWO, could this potentially not be a precursor pattern to a possible EAMT event within the latter half of November? While there is evidence for the conditions in the strat to 'ramp up' again (excuse the crude and less than meteorological phrase there) after the current weakening I'm thinking a more long-term here with potential impacts through December? From my own research and also of reading information from others while it is clearly very cautious to single out one winter when looking at analogs, the winter that does seem to keep cropping up is that of 1986/1987 as a comparison to this upcoming one. This, from a UK's perspective, was a slow burner with some 'cold zonality' through December, but with then a pronounced Jan SSW which then lead to all sorts of 'fun and games' through the middle and latter half of the winter. The QBO was more pronounced in terms of an E'ly phase, especially above a certain height, if I remember, but still as per recent discussions the QBO this year, while clearly changing to a W'ly phase still looks as though it won't scupper the potential for an SSW. As ever while it is near impossible to get all the variables to match, when trying to find analogs there are a lot of similarities to that year, or so it seems, for this forthcoming winter. I'm certainly building up a better picture now of how things may evolve and the update of the EC Seasonal yesterday was telling, in terms of northern blocking patterns through the winter. After looking at all the EC data for work today, it is, without question, a consistent signal for a general -AO regime to dominate the winter period from the EC Seasonal, with +ve MSLP and 500mb GEO heights there over the winter and that is a consistent forecast going back to August now. From a UK's perspective the blocking signals do become more significant as the winter progresses, so through the Jan, Feb and Mar period and, overall, while Dec may bring something of interest I still think Dec is the most 'unknown' of the months this winter for many reasons. Any further thoughts or feedback, especially re; the above MJO prediction and how that may influence GWO/AAM moving forward and potential impacts on the strat due to trop conditions, as a result of potential EAMT events then please fire away! Cheers, Matt.
  7. MattHugo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    The post on the previous page from Brooklynwx99 really is superb... ...However, what it does do it continues to provide a conflict of data and information with regards to how this winter will actually pan out. From years of being involved in meteorology, more often than not, by this point in the year, personally speaking, I've got a better understanding and train of thought as to how the winter will pan out, broadly speaking in terms of N Hem pattern evolution. What does stand out this year when looking at all the usual variables and pieces of information is how one or two individuals, like as contained within that previous post, provide some really detailed information, but this is then counterbalanced a few days later by other sources of information. The following Tweet from Amy, along with subsequent replies, is a really good example of what I mean with regards to the approach to this winter... What interests me this winter is the number of 'wild cards' in evidence which does seem to be creating this mix of predictions and thoughts as to how the winter will pan out. From a UK's point of view, it's a well-known scenario that if there's a clear connection/link between strat and trop through November than "9 times out of 10" Dec is often a month of chasing temporary N'lies at best, with the flow often zonal and it often being a wet and windy month. You then pop out into the start of a New Year looking for some sort of major strat event, or some major MJO influence, for example, to get out of that pattern and the winter then soon starts to tick by. The ability to stop that from occurring in Nov and Dec is often rare, from my experience, but I do believe the post from the previous page does contain information that may well have some relevance to this Nov and Dec. That aside, we all know that 'up top' the strat has been noteworthy this autumn period, with some particularly cold temperatures and some very strong wind speeds. Clearly, there is forecast to be a reduction, at least back to nearer average values looking forward and the continued Scandinavian blocking regime in the coming days/week should hopefully help to promote additional wave 1 activity and at least help 'push it around' a bit moving forward. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png Coming full circle to my original comment, the general thought train over here in the UK is one of confusion. Clearly, as is often the case over in the US it's often far easier to get cold there than it is here in the UK, or at least get the blocking patterns in place to start with. What is interesting mind, from a seasonal model point of view is the EC Seasonal. That has been steadfast in bringing N blocking regimes through the winter period in the last 3 months. The final update, before winter, will be available around the 5th which I'll be waiting for to see if it maintains the signal for N blocking, if it does, then who knows. What the EC Seasonal did do a good job of this year was picking up the strong +ve MSLP anoms over the UK for the summer, to the point where back in May it seemed too-good-to-be-true, but clearly, that forecast became reality. However, if that connection between strat and trop is made through Nov and we see the trop vortex make an appearance with the usual deep cold 850's locked away around Greenland and surrounding latitudes, then, personally, the early part of the winter could well be a write-off here with little chance of blocking regimes, as per the past on the last page. If, however, there remains some sort of disconnect where we maintain an overall amplified pattern within the N Hem, along with a potentially weakened vortex then 'game on'. It does, to me, however, seem as though it's going to be a 'lucky guess' as to how this winter will pan out, especially depending on which side of the Atlantic you're on. With the QBO changing through the winter period, ENSO continuing to be an uncertain variable, the rapid increase in Siberian snow cover, which may well continue, to the on-going more recent uncertainty of how the lack of sea ice over N Lats is influencing conditions, plus the solar min. Combine all that, plus other 'variables' and, again, while an educated guess is clearly possible, as it always is, there's something about this winter coming up that really could surprise as all, either in a good way or a bad way depending on your choice of winter weather! Kind regards, Matt.
  8. MattHugo

    MattHugo

  9. MattHugo

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Hi all, Just pop my head above the parapet to echo the thoughts of others regarding the thread and the forum in general. I was advised of this site a week or so back so registered and I've been following it, from a back seat, for a week or two and there are some excellent contributions and posts on here from some very knowledgeable individuals. For those that know me and for those that don't I'm a meteorologist here in the UK for MetraWeather, been in the business that is meteorology in many various ways for over 20 years, but professionally, since 2007. The 'day job' does often get in the way of getting stuck in to these kinds of discussions too much but and I certainly look forward to listening and learning from those more knowledgeable than I on the likes of the AAM and more specific subjects; call me an all rounded-kinda-meteorologist, as so is needed when you do it professionally. Kind regards to all and keep the posts coming, I'll chip in with questions and comments when possible, perhaps on the Winter 2018/2019 thread too, as that's another interesting thread. Best wishes, Matt.
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