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Scotlandwx

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  1. So much going on ! Folks moan prediction is always chaos theory after day 7 - blah blah, more wizened have extra clues. Images for posterity.. On the evolutionary scale ... Trop Impacts inbound - just going to happen in slow motion on NWP...
  2. Dropped these into Twitter earlier, good to have for posterity.. and an excellent view of the continued warming activity.. Another one for the archives... Nice to see the Garinkel Paper noted above.. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144
  3. Nothing to see here...move along. Vortex going to have a splitting headache after these New Year celebrations..
  4. Such a great season for Stratosphere enthusiasts, having followed since circa 2008 when I noticed MJO patterns created predictability, then seeing these working in harmony with strat forecasts, really has been a shift in seeing how the SPV and vortex conditioning has moved slowly into the mainstream. The SSW competition is pretty cool too- lots of guesstimates on there - I went for Jan 17th predicated on the MJO transition and subsequent 25-30 day lead from P3 to a strat forcing event.. However we are in something of a roller coaster season. Composite included for these pointers from daily values late 70s to date, sign posted another Scandi block developing. Vorticity plots below outline the imminent Scandi - rock in the pond - block manifesting again and subsequent to this a vortex elongation that teases at Greenland height rises. Sadly the martineau animations are no longer maintained, however having watched several SSWs over time, the Greenland block to me appears to be the one element that can tip an already perturbed vortex over the edge, we have small signs of this at present. In fact the delay in such a feature taking hold would appear to be via some chaos theory dynamics within how the vortex elongates via the W2 Scandi forcing coming to a peak in the next 2-3 days. A filament of the daughter vortex cleaving from the main parent Siberian vortex and creating havoc in the North Atlantic, essentially disrupting potential retrogression of the block. Re: Scandi Blocks - it is of note that we have not seen such strong features in this locale for a number of years, before finally showing their hand to strong effect last season, the culmination being a notable easterly regime in the UK and a packet of 500hPa air spilling westward from the continent at -43C, thing of beauty to watch and remarkable synoptic. I think we will all agree we are privileged to be watching events unfold with greater clarity than before thanks to the work of Zac. Here we see the peak of W2 dove tailing with the W1 displacement, then crucially IMO for Xmas week tentative signs of another W2. In my experience W2 appreciates on modelling following being picked out with amplitude gaining.. certainly this is the case on the ECMWF Berlin plots.. So what of the vortex now, a clear displacement and centroid position exisits for the first two thirds of December, with much scatter thereafter.. Given the variety in guesses for SSW technical, from circa Boxing day thru to nearly all dates in Jan, thru to a double event this season, or no event this season. It's going to be an amazing watch.. If a Greenland block manifests of note, then I think my prediction of Jan is bust, if not then it may be in the area... wonder what others think...
  5. It is classic strop strat choreography or better put boxing. Scandinavia just served the Arctic an upper cut.. It took 3 rounds to steady, but a decent shot from an anomalous block. Over to the Aleutians..# Picked 50mb as that's where the fun is at
  6. Incredible site - amazing to have this new resource... It's like an early Xmas present for Strat geeks..
  7. Trop certainly enjoying aggravating the vortex at present, got to love Scandanavian Rocks in the atmospheric pond. Current - well - yesterday before ECM went off on steroids. Be interesting to see if this view changes from GEOS Only a few other yrs with similar W2 action ( since 79) at this point in proceedings...
  8. Scotlandwx

    Scotlandwx

  9. Hi, first post here from a devoted weather hobbyist who I know some of the contributors on here will have 'bumped' into across the Internet ether - congratulations on a tremendous thread and the intellectual dissection of the various teleconnections, exam questions and current challenges in understanding the mechanics of our atmosphere. Particular well done for making the connections to get the AAM data available. Really is something that we ought to protect and cherish. Hope to contribute over time - when time allows. Meanwhile from today, we see out winter friend or foe cranking up a gear across the column... Source of data: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/Current/seasonal_strat/seasonal_strat.html Probably my favourite strat obs site in terms of ease of interpretation, also pleasing to see much more new material coming online this season courtesy of Dr Lopez and Zac Lawrence. Will certaintly be another winter of watch and learn as we have the subtle nuances of the QBO switch in play as the season progresses. Keep up the great work all !
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