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Jack Sillin

Master Wx Expert
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Jack Sillin last won the day on May 28

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About Jack Sillin

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    Wx Expert/Moderator
  • Birthday May 26

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    Yarmouth, Maine

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  1. For our UK friends. It's about to get breezy
  2. Jack Sillin

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Quiet for now But changes are afoot Also @Bring Back 1962-63 many thanks for the invite to the ENSO thread. I will take a look there when I have some time, hopefully something I find at some point between school and work sounds like an AWESOME discussion, just sadly not one I might have much time for
  3. Jack Sillin

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    Long range look: D5 Pac jet extension drives huge Aleutian cyclogenesis event poleward heat/moisture transport by this storm's WCB pumps up heights on the West Coast -> + PNA And we all know what that does
  4. I wouldn't trust it for pinpoint track/intensity/rain/really anything forecasts, but the GFS's hourly PWAT loop is pretty neat. General idae is that after the slow slog through the Carolinas, the storm's remnants recurve and merge with a cold front. That push of dry air late week is gonna be fantastic!
  5. Jack Sillin

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Long range... Favorable through 9/19, then unfavorable through the 22nd/23rd or so. Then wave propagating back around from EPAC brings return of favorable conditions last week of September. Still ridge over troubled waters by then
  6. Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case you don't already have one or are looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)
  7. Latest EPS (http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png) lot of members doing the stall. One lone recurve
  8. You can get all the images you want, free -> https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/785-w-343-n/precipitation-6h-in/20180914-2100z.html But yes, GIF's are cool
  9. To any and all interested in why the GFS is absolute trash... Philippe's excellent thread here (click on it and read through!) does a great job explaining
  10. Yes, very similar to 12z, but it shows that 18z was the anomaly (which has value)
  11. F51 Farther SW. More in line with other guidance