Jack Sillin

don't sleep on Tuesday either!

trend 06z-12z def more amped but we're still way below 18z yesterday

the trend towards a stronger and farther SW northern stream wave seems poised to be quite helpful here

6hr trend with some context since 18z yesterday. seems like 18z was an overamplified outlier and 06z was an underamplified outlier.

12z NAM off and rolling with a faster southern stream wave and a stronger/slower N stream wave. Interested to see what happens with this shift

+30hrs interesting dig in the N stream relative to 12z maps via weathermodels.com

good stuff alert 18z Euro another tick up in the intensity of the southern stream wave maps via weathermodels.com

yep I agree, that's one of several possible ways out of that particular failure mode. The others being a slower N stream and a faster S stream. Can take any exit ramp, just as long as there's at least one!

Ahead of a possible storm, I always like to look for possible failure modes i.e. if this ends up flopping, how might it do so. Just to keep an eye on what red flags might need to be watched. One possible failure mode here (not likely perhaps, but possible) is that the southern stream trends too slow and the northern stream trends too fast such that the NW flow behind the N stream disturbance ends up shunting the southern disturbance farther east as it doesn't have room to round the bend. Will that happen? I don't think so, but it could. Will this particular NAM run show it? idk, pr

Stronger southern stream but also slower as the northern stream goes faster... probably not a dealbreaker as today's system lifts a bit quicker out of ME and the upstream WC ridge is stronger but it's a red flag to watch out for and one possible "failure mode"

solid amplification of the southern stream wave on the latest NAM as we continue to get a better look at that disturbance diving SE through the N Rockies

Pretty cool to see these adjustments after NWP got a look at the 12z RAOB data discussed in my previous post

Good morning trackers and RAOB watchers! Here's this morning's GFS vs reality 500mb plot: Two signals of note jump out: higher heights over AK and lower heights in our shortwave over BC. Glancing over at ensemble sensitivity analysis from the 00z suite... EOF1 explains 80% of the variability with a significant possitive pressure signal i.e. EOF1 = no storm. So what needs to happen at 500mb this morning for that no storm solution? lower heights over AK and higher heights in BC! Bottom line: looks good for solutions towards

+54... this is gonna be really really close. OTOH, nice amplification trend in that next shortwave. If we miss this one, there's always Tuesday

+51hrs - that faster N stream and slower S stream is gonna hurt even though both are more amped. That next Pac NW shortwave may be a key player with this one