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Jack Sillin

Master Wx Expert
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Jack Sillin last won the day on October 23 2018

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About Jack Sillin

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    weather.us - Jack Sillin
  • Birthday May 26

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    Ithaca New York/Yarmouth, Maine

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  1. 00z ecmwf a lot closer to a hit than most prob think IMO. Check out how the Pacific jet buckles and now we have strong NW winds over ND as opposed to W winds just a little shortwave timing off from getting a storm (vs making an impossible connection in Zonal flow) prob explains why more EPS members went for the coastal track last night (though while keeping it on the shallower side until it's in the Maritimes)
  2. ICON kept the storm closer to the coast, but it left 80% of the southern stream disturbance behind over the GOM. Picked up enough for >flurries but if you're lookin for the big one, it's gonna be hard to find in this pattern (I talked a lot more about that https://blog.weather.us/forecast-for-weekend-east-coast-storm-remains-uncertain/ for those interested)
  3. Opening salvo from 12z global guidance comes from the ICON (German) model... Certainly looks promising though man are we leaving some energy behind over TX/Mexico. For those interested, I put some longer form thoughts up on the blog this morning: https://blog.weather.us/forecast-for-weekend-east-coast-storm-remains-uncertain/
  4. focus on the west coast, more ridging there would increase the odds of a phase out east
  5. here's a trend in EPS guidance you probably weren't looking for, but is certainly encouraging
  6. ECMWF deterministic is wide right, but seriously check out what happens after it roars into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Its diabatic outflow jet is so strong it puts up a giant Greenland block! Moreover, the immense poleward and upward heat fluxes from that type of event may be enough to split the stratospheric PV (in tandem with the building Alaskan ridge Any of the long range specialists feel free to tell me this is bs, but I'm starting to think there may be a big silver lining if this misses
  7. Not a bad signal. Deterministic runs will drag ya on a wild goose chase while ensembles point slowly but steadily towards the eventual outcome
  8. 12z ECMWF lookin pretty strong with the first disturbance as it moves into WA/OR on Tuesday AM. Curious to see if it's so strong/south it gets left behind over Baja https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2020012612/1196-w-396-n/relative-vorticity-500mb/20200128-1200z.html
  9. 12z GEM takes that NEPAC (faux-N stream) disturbance slow and late into N BC... ...which means it can't catch up in time. Still could get something out of that southern stream wave but you're gonna have a hard time finding cold air. Interesting, seems like we've identified a benchmark of sorts. Need to figure out what's gonna happen with that s/w on Thursday. That's one of the more important puzzles ATTM IMO
  10. spitballing here... I wonder if the rapid zonal flow into BC on Thursday is actually the reason the GFS ends up a hit. Need to get that disturbance from the NEPAC into the Lakes ASAP, which is a lot harder if it has to ride over a ridge. Counterintuitive, but maybe true?
  11. Who else is more interested in the period immediately following the weekend system vs the weekend system itself? That one goes on to anchor around 50/50 while there are some hints of a baby -NAO and possibly even some riding building into AK. Long ways off, but worth keepin a half an eye on particularly since it looks like it's gonna be hard to pull off a big one this weekend
  12. Thanks so much! Took a while but it's nice to hear those sorts of efforts are appreciated. It's also nice to spell everything out in a way that's (hopefully) easy to understand for everyone. If I can explain it to all, then I really know what's going on myself
  13. Spilled a bunch of ink on the blog this evening talking about next weekend's storm if anyone is interested in the long version of my thoughts: https://blog.weather.us/assessing-the-potential-for-an-east-coast-storm-next-weekend/ The short version is that I think our path to a big storm here is through a runaway southern stream disturbance given the utter lack of involvement from the N stream and lack of PNA ridging to drive a polar disturbance southward. Such a big storm is certainly doable, but would raise a lot of pytpe questions especially for you all in the NYC area. Also interesting to note that from an EPS perspective, the probability of a hit is relatively low BUT the probability of a significant hit conditional on any type of hit is quite high. Basically, most likely we're chasing nothing, but if it does line up right it could be a big one
  14. Also interesting to note that the ECMWF (miss) has a **much** stronger than the GFS (hit). Wave timing/spacing matters!
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