Jack Sillin

For our UK friends. It's about to get breezy

Quiet for now But changes are afoot Also @Bring Back 1962-63 many thanks for the invite to the ENSO thread. I will take a look there when I have some time, hopefully something I find at some point between school and work sounds like an AWESOME discussion, just sadly not one I might have much time for

Long range look: D5 Pac jet extension drives huge Aleutian cyclogenesis event poleward heat/moisture transport by this storm's WCB pumps up heights on the West Coast -> + PNA And we all know what that does

just crazy, the whole setup

I wouldn't trust it for pinpoint track/intensity/rain/really anything forecasts, but the GFS's hourly PWAT loop is pretty neat. General idae is that after the slow slog through the Carolinas, the storm's remnants recurve and merge with a cold front. That push of dry air late week is gonna be fantastic!

Long range... Favorable through 9/19, then unfavorable through the 22nd/23rd or so. Then wave propagating back around from EPAC brings return of favorable conditions last week of September. Still ridge over troubled waters by then

16" just tonight according to HRRR

Looks like it's gonna rain up here. Cool.

Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case you don't already have one or are looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)

Latest EPS (http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png) lot of members doing the stall. One lone recurve

Full track from ECMWF. Just crazy.

You can get all the images you want, free -> https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/785-w-343-n/precipitation-6h-in/20180914-2100z.html But yes, GIF's are cool

To any and all interested in why the GFS is absolute trash... Philippe's excellent thread here (click on it and read through!) does a great job explaining

Yes, very similar to 12z, but it shows that 18z was the anomaly (which has value)

F51 Farther SW. More in line with other guidance