Jack Sillin

Thanks for the added clarification John I'm lucky to be able to learn from you and everyone else here! Maybe sometime in the next decade or so they'll let me take a stratosphere class so I can fully keep up haha

FWIW, ECMWF seems to have a PV split (one lobe E Asia one S Greenland) at D5 transition to a PV displacement by D10 with the whole vortex trying to reconsolidate over Eurasia. Probably good for our friends who want cold on the other side of the pond, but I can't imagine that's a great signal for the E US

ah that makes more sense, my post with the NAM was referencing this weekend

This is the storm for this weekend? Watching for a little N nudge that might bring S NJ into the mix for snow. I'm still meh on 12/15. Early hedge is cutter but we'll see

not to interrupt the long range talk too much, the D10 period is interesting, but this is interesting too. Y'all know where to look by now

ECMWF caves to GFS for weekend storm, how often do you get to say that lol

A brief look at each of our key disturbances this morning. Still way out there. The fact that we have any idea what might happen when all these converge on the East Coast is absolutely amazing

What differentiates N (sorta amped) solution from S (super suppressed) solution? Storm currently several hundred miles N of AK Part of that front/storm breaks off and is ejected SE as a s/w in the NW Terrorities of Canada Which then is embedded within N stream, arrives in E Hudson bay Sunday afternoon That's a powerful shot of suppression right there. If it digs SE, it totally punts the whole thing right OTS and there's no hope of even DC seeing flakes. This is what the GFS shows But if it just kinda stalls and fizzles, some more N stream energy can drift SE, merge with the main system, and give a little more oomph (ECMWF) Still think its very existence will be enough to keep New England/NYC dry, this is mostly a NJ-DC battleground IMO

sure, but with the changes in the NPAC due to building phase 3 MJO which leads to a huge jet extension and lots of zonal momentum, plus a lack of blocking in the Atlantic, there's no chance that it will actually be able to get cut off

Belongs in the banter thread of course as this has a 0.000% chance of happening without a mega block that the pattern entirely does not support. EPS individual ensemble viewer is weenie heaven (on lab.weathermodels.com)

EPS in two camps: one weak/far out and another stronger/closer in. Mean smooths that all out, just puts weak low close ish in. But that's unlikely, if it's close in it'll be stronger (more amplified system overall) and if its weaker it'll be farther out (less amplified system overall). Also LOL at the 965 SE of Montauk. One can dream right

Quick long range thoughts... Overnight EPS echoes the GEFS maps posted above. Not bullish on more than a few days of warmth before the ridge signal just keeps moving east into the Maritimes. As cyclones develop in the left exit region of the incredible NPAC jet, they'll pump up heights over Western North America. thus, without a very strong standing wave in the MJO/tropical convection, the pattern runs out of steam. I don't think one can argue that at least some warmth (read as "relaxation of cold" if you so wish haha) mid month is coming, the question as always is with regards to duration and magnitude. I'm digging into the pattern now for a weather.us blog, and I've been focusing (in part!) on the MJO Which will transition from weak/no signal to phase 3/4 in about 5 days or so, before sliding into phase 6 mid month. Both those locations over the Maritime Continent promote warmth in the east but unless there's something to cause it to get stuck in phase 6, phase 7 is just around the corner... ...which so far as I can tell favors more coastal storm activity, but probably of the Miller-B variety (note secondary maxima over Midwest). Additionally even as the torch burns over here, so too does it in Scandinavia... Which applies pressure to the vortex as it tries to reconsolidate (partially why the warmup is coming). Thus maybe we see support for a late month flip back to cold and stormy Finally, let us remember this happened just 10 days before when you torch in the winter, all you're really doing is loading up a huge spring. Eventually the force is too much and it snaps back the other direction

By the time the storm arrives and we have some sense of some blocking ish over Greenland, progressive jet in the NPAC is starting to creep in and as such your diabatic outflow jet is in Quebec. Not helpful for generating a powerhouse CCB

250 jet on the GFS tells me progressive system but dynamic (if you take it verbatim). Bit RER right over the Mid Atlantic but zero Atlantic "traffic" and low heights over Maritime Canada (no block). Then Hudson Bay jet streak kicks it all out. So I don't think this is your epic hit, but if we can get the dynamics right, it'll be a fun few hours for someone