Anastasia Beaverhausen - 33andrain Jump to content

Anastasia Beaverhausen

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  1. Hudson Bay refreeze finally gaining some momentum. It is going to ice up very quickly.
  2. it has a bad algorithm, mix etc counted as snow in ^ output. NYC north is all / mostly snow
  3. I have been harping on the 16th for a while. Bering Sea rule = SECSy. We have another threat ~11/23 as well.
  4. Did you see 12z GFS? Way colder. As the southern low is further west (and will keep trending that way) the Arctic air to its north can get further east before it is blocked by the SW. As we get closer to event this will likely continue IMO. I think you can see a nascent CCB (currently rain) appearing over the Mid ATL already as well. Some of it WILL be rain, but I am still not buying the all-wet solutions for NYC.
  5. My view: The FV3 is backing off BIG TIME by 78hrs re: interaction between our important vort and the stupid northern vort. Again, this is not a bad setup. The confluence from our 50/50 low keeps growing, and it will continue to do so as we saw the same thing happen in the Nino of 09-10 (which also featured +snowcover over Quebec but nothing like this year). As the main polar vort gets out of the way it could actually end up helping things instead of hurting things, but that is way further off if it even happens.
  6. I will be surprised if the FV3 doesn't come in substantially colder looking at 60 hr. The warm nose over Iowa / etc is diminished substantially (our origin airmass).
  7. No worries I didn't mean to be sassy if I came across that way just explaining reasoning
  8. You can see the polar vort is getting out of the way. There should be significant latent heat release ongoing in James Bay and above Superior. I imagine it will end up fairly sticky further NW of current position, allowing the wave of Arctic air it is riding to penetrate further to its S before the shortwave impacting the East Coast can arrive. Combined with the push of energy from the ATL west over FL and into LA (why the low keeps shifting W), these are very good developments. This occurred on both GFS and CMC tonight. CMC unfortunately picked up on the phantom eastern surface low down south, but give it another few runs and the old trend will continue down there.
  9. It'll snow, or it won't, but I think accounting for model bias in this situation (and looking back to analog 09-10) portend consistent south & cold trends for East Coast SLPs until Hudson Bay is completely frozen, and probably even thereafter. The Bering Sea ice situation is another major problem that is causing models to de-amplify the western ridge / -EPO too much and too frequently, resulting in a warm bias over the Rockies / NW Plains in particular. If you roll the EURO's short term output back to 144+, this is plain and apparent to see. The models are also struggling because the freezing season is defying climo, a component of forecasting. Hudson Bay is going to freeze completely solid before there is more than a trace of sea ice in the Bering (and Chukchi will be mostly ice free still as well). That is completely contrary to the old order of things.
  10. 00z NAM improved re: LR trend (ignore actual output, NAM only useful for trend past 48)
  11. 18z GFS continues with greater separation between the problem energy and the real low. I bet 06z is the first set of runs to honk.
  12. California is burning as we type if we need any confirmation of +PNA... horrific...
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