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Neblizzard

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  1. Yes for New England. It gives the NYC area about an inch of rain while places like Boston receive 6 plus inches of rain.
  2. Looks to be about 75-100 miles east of where it was at 12z
  3. We need to watch if that ridge over the northeast continues to trend stronger in future model runs. I can see this meandering over the Atlantic for days. Too early to write this one off.
  4. Agreed . Storms are firing in PA quite far north
  5. Nobody saw the unfavorable tropical forcing in the pacific. So do you think we’re done with this winter
  6. If that’s correct the pattern is going to get quite active. You can see the -NAO building west towards Greenland with a 50/50 low near NF. Not a KU pattern by any means but it doesn’t matter. All we need to do is be on the right side of the gradient. That -PNA will bring in tons of shortwaves off the pacific.
  7. That’s a great look with triple blocking over the poles and a severe -AO. I would like to see the EPO ridge just a tad further east but we can work with that. El Niño climatology supports this idea going into March
  8. It’s an exciting pattern to see all these southern stream systems developing. You gotta love El Niño , it’s clearly influencing the pattern.
  9. Night and day. The models are obviously having issues with the changing wavelengths as we head into winter. The 180 flip on the euro weeklies doesn’t worry me a bit . Like John said it’s a matter of “when”. This is a weak Niño with a very warm GOA. Once tropical forcing becomes favorable we will see a huge shift to a colder stormier regime. I like the period around Christmas after the brief warmup
  10. Just last week they were wall to wall cold thru early January. I don’t give the euro weeklies credibility past week 2-3
  11. The euro is too far north with the shortwave given the Strength of the block in the Atlantic. Give it time ..
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