Neblizzard

These favorable patterns sometimes just don’t work out. I have a bad feeling...hope I’m wrong.

That could spell an active SWFE pattern like 93-94 if it’s correct

I’m in kenilworth right next to nomahegan! Small world

The pattern will be busy with an active southern stream. La Niña has been sleeping ...we track.

All you need is “cold enough” if the storm track is good.

Not sure why the OP GFS is even looked at for long range ...go with the ensembles

Hard to ignore the trends with the PV taking a major hit on the guidance. It’s looking likely Jan will be an active month in terms of cold and coastal storms.

NAM picked this up well

I’m not falling for epic solutions a week out anymore. Lesson learned...despite what models show always wait until 24 hours out

The NAM shows nothing like this for NYC

Wow what a shellacking.

Exactly. We had pretty fierce winds during the Presidents’ Day storm in 2003. The surface low was no lower than 1008mb and the high over southeastern Canada was 1035mb. Just that difference in pressure gave our area 40 mph wind gusts

GFS brought the euro to its knees. Sniffed out the confluence first... awesome run.