Sorry to interrupt your discussion about the GWO and its implications, but I can't really understand you, unless I have some more clarity on the value of the data.
The fundamentals of the theory of AAM are pretty much clear to me, but when trying to determine the value of AAM and GWO for the weather, I am hindered by (what appear to be) contradictionary data from the relevant plots.
First of all when I look at the vertical and zonal integral relative AAM, the value is between +1 and +2.
But looking at the CFSv2 forecast, the actual value of Global Relative AAM is about 0,5.
The bias corrected version shows a even bigger deviation, its value is about -0,5.
Is this a deviation in the data or is there any real difference between the vertical and zonal integral relative AAM and the Global Relative AAM, which I don't understand?
The MJO is a very useful tool for understanding the weather and for forecasting the weather, because the data are clear and unambigious. When considering the actual AAM on the other hand, it can be either positive or negative (depending on a bias corrected version or not), which makes a great difference for the phase of the GWO. The GWO can be either in phase 8 or 1 and will move to phase 5 or three in the coming week (http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/).
I would like to have some clarity in this matter. Perhaps it would be helpful to have a link to the next plot of the GWO, often used at this forum. Maybe it gives me the fixed data I need to have a reliable reference.