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cerra679

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About cerra679

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    Hunterdon Co., NJ

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  1. cerra679

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    BSR has something nice but I know how you all feel about that one 3-4 day rule. 14 days away.
  2. Not that it means anything, but you might want to look at the gfs-para.
  3. I think some of us need to stop chasing the models every run. Last night we were talking about trends of AN temps for Xmas, now we’re tracking a clipper with marginal temps. It’ll go back and forth 15 times between now and then. There is no reason to worry about a slow winter when meteorologically, it just started. It’s great to have discussions, but we need to take all the factors in before deterministically saying it’s gonna be warm or cold etc. The models won’t hone in on any solution until 3-4 days in advance. We are 9 days from Christmas.
  4. With the 0.17” I got today, 65.00” for the year. Got around 43” last year.
  5. Honestly I think we could be in for a more clipper-type storm around Christmas instead of a coastal in wake of the cutter storm 22-23. The missed northern stream behind it will bring that cold shot of air.
  6. cerra679

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    Same chase, same “disappointment”, different day.
  7. Mark these dates on your calendar: 12/25, 12/28, 1/2, 1/6
  8. cerra679

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    Pure incompetence. According to several people, some roads are brined in far south Jersey.
  9. Kinda off topic idk where this would go... Just got my acceptance letter from Penn State for Meteorology!
  10. As per the discussion of the amount Holly forecast office, note that it also forecasts for Delaware and Eastern Maryland. If they still don’t believe the models it doesn’t mean it’s coming up to Allentown etc.
  11. In the end, there’s always going to be hits and misses in winter. In the northeast, this one seems to be generally a miss. We’ve been tracking this one seemingly forever. Glad those who typically don’t get much snow will get some. Gotta just move on when we have to up here. Long winter ahead of us. Get some sleep!
  12. BSR is never meant for exact forecasts, but it does give you a general sense at where a system or pattern might set up. That’s why I said it shouldn’t be worried about until the weekend, when we can start looking at the difference pieces and possibilities, and determine if there even is a storm coming.
  13. On the 14-16 threat... I mentioned this a while ago. Here’s the BSR connection. something to watch, but don’t bother looking into it until the weekend.
  14. I say that’s about 1/3-1/2 that are NW.
  15. cerra679

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    Any idea when the 6/18z euro will become the full 240 euro?
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