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cerra679

Met Student
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cerra679 last won the day on June 1

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About cerra679

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  • Location
    Hunterdon Co., NJ -> Oswego, NY

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  1. 28 in Oswego. Wind chill of 18. ~1” of powder last night.
  2. We had a few really nice snow showers in Oswego, but it remained above freezing because of the lake. Nothing accumulated more than just an isolated dusting on cars and low cut grass.
  3. Here’s a few videos I took in Oswego this morning... it was insane to say the least.
  4. Looks pretty promising in Oswego... but GFS doesn’t want to give in this time. Euro is just insane.
  5. Well then that’s on them if it get it wrong. If our experts catch the flaws of a storm before they do, 33andRain will be the alpha weather source. Then there will be more members. Thanks for not following through.
  6. I’m sorry, but isn’t the point of a model to predict the future? How do you know it won’t happen until it actually gets to that timeframe? What if it actually verified? You can’t automatically say it’s going to be wrong just because it’s the GFS. If the GFS was always wrong, why would NOAA continue it? Half of this forum is based upon long-range signals. So why not ban them too? How often do the teleconnections change and all of a sudden we’re all bummed they didn’t happen? You can’t just ban something just because you don’t think it’s realistic. That’s not how the world works. I’m sure many on this forum, especially those that are new, would be disappointed if such a thing were to be done. If newbies see that posting the GFS is banned in serious discussions, what will they think? They’ll just go to another forum. The point of a forum is to discuss things, but if you can’t discuss things, what’s the point? You have to be able to look at a run, look at the trends of drivers of a pattern, and see if it’s worthwhile analyzing. No, it’s most likely not going to drop 6.3” in the back left corner of your front yard, but it’s meant to let you know about a signal. If you just flat out say it’s lying, you’re going to be caught off guard next time it is right. Meanwhile, this should probably be in banter, and feel free to move it, but I needed everyone to see this.
  7. Just because something is “fixed” doesn’t mean it’s not going to show snowstorms out 15 days. The pattern fits. If we were going to have a death ridge days 1-10 and all of a sudden get a blizzard on day 11, yeah that’d be an issue. And also, the Euro is a medium range model, hence the name, European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). These models have similar but different algorithms.
  8. Doesn't the MJO generally determine the teleconnections like the EPO/PNA and even AO/NAO? Or are they separate entities that move independently?
  9. I can’t wait to start seeing more people posting. This is my favorite season coming up and you can just see the enthusiasm and dedication from everyone.
  10. Oswego made it to 34.3°. If that north wind wasn’t there before midnight we would have made it below 30.
  11. HRRR notably overdone with temperatures at least along the lake in Oswego. It's gonna be a chilly one tonight. Meanwhile, here was tonight's Oswego sunset...
  12. Could someone send a link for a general website to retrieve analogs? I'd like to play around with it to see how things compare. Thanks.
  13. A few of my pictures from an impressive storm earlier in Oswego. Came with marble size hail.
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