Tee47 - 33andrain Jump to content


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About Tee47

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  • Birthday 02/16/1977

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    Adelaide Hills, South Australia

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  1. Tee47

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    great post Great post, the most important aspect of this is the differential of the actual SSTs, and not the anomalies. As this year has evolved, it's clear to me that the Walker circulation will not connect this El Nino because the 5 degree difference between the WPAC and the EPAC. And this may explain why every time it looks like we might get some increase, the trades pick up and cool Nino 3.4 again. Which is why with every move of the CHI 200 to the Atlantic either doesn't come off in the forecasts, or if it does, it splinters and still leaves upward motion near the Maritime continent. And what it also reinforces to me is how important a role the atmosphere plays, it is front running this event as it did in 2009. Here in Australia, in 2009 we had the El Nino weather in the first 9 or 10 months of the year, and then we saw huge rains and lower pressures from then on, despite a very nice warm Pacific Basin, and moderate El Nino. This year is almost playing out similar, which is why I wasn't surprised when I saw JB say 09/10 was a similar analog, along with others on twitter as well. And then now we are seeing the AAM sinking fast into the negatives, so if it stays that way for a fortnight it might produce a stronger forcing that pushes the South Pacific Convergence Zone onto the Maritime Continent, which is a bit of a stretch but an early season cyclone getting close to Australia is nothing like an El Nino here locally. And that should keep the pressures down enough to keep trades going to stop this connection happening. Which is why the models now see the CHI 200 heavily over the Maritime Continent again later next weekend. So IMO the atmosphere is actually the most important part of this whole set up, and if we look at other failed Nino years, I suspect it might be the same. Would be fascinating to see archived AAM and GWO charts, which are hard to find, and see what role they played, in the 2012 and 2014 events.
  2. Tee47

    Hibbo's 2018-19 Winter Outlook

    Fantastic post Snowy!
  3. Tee47

    JMA Comment from Latest DJF run

    I am not so sure about this, one thing is for sure is the models are really struggling. Since May, all of the models continue to try to place the CHI 200 away from the Maritime Continent and into the Atlantic, and only for one period in September did it actually become real, and Australia had a very dry month. The JMA had many weeks where it also took the CHI 200 East into the Americas only to fail, and it would end up right back where we started. So this year I have been focusing more on actual water temps rather than anomalies. It is hard to see how the upward motion would consolidate over an area that 25 degrees, whilst the West pacific, and the Maritime Continent have waters between 29 and 31 degrees Celsius. My theory is the climate models all have an El Nino forecast, and its playing havoc with the short term versions of their models. And I think the clue is the SOI, attached, it has not been able to take hold, even in weak El Nino years we have seen a run of 4 - 6 months with the SOI in the minus territory. This year has been bang on neutral, up and down like the proverbial. Also attached is the 200 VV maps from the SH winter of 1997, showing the set up for El Nino takes hold a long time before the event. At no stage this year have we seen anything like this. And I think JB is right, its water vapour that is playing havoc with this, it appears to be not allowing the atmosphere to do what it normally would do, its having a big impact on the weather at present. All interesting stuff, and like everyone I will wait and see if this JMA forecast comes off, because at the moment I doubt it will.
  4. Tee47

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Hi Snowy, no I forecast for all of Australia, and used to post on WZ in Australia, so you should be able to work out who I am. I have followed you and others on WZ for years but don't post there anymore. Love the technical side of meteorolgy, and the challenge of new theories and being able to test them in real time. My personal belief is that we have not yet recovered from the QBO reversal in Feb 2016 and our weather still remains a little disjointed. Given its one of those things with records back to 1960 it is a significant occurrence. So looking forward to contributing my thoughts and reading yours.
  5. Tee47


  6. Tee47

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Hi all, I just wanted to say what an awesome site this is, as a forecaster myself running a private weather forecasting service, this was an amazing read, and has so much resource tools that are hard to find. Having the legendary JB on board is also fantastic, I have been following him for well over a decade. Thanks again for a fantastic forum.