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About Tee47

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  • Birthday 02/16/1977

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    Adelaide Hills, South Australia

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  1. I agree with this, how can models have different initialisation points to start with?
  2. Yep thats correct, and what I was pointing out. Interesting times.
  3. In Australia we are setting up for something totally different, which was my point, it's playing out differently all over the globe IMO.
  4. Yes I do tend to agree with that, my point was that in the past AAM, QBO, MJO and other teleconnections behave totally differently to what we are currently seeing. And I am thinking its the warmth left over form 2015, and extra water vapour from 2015 that is the issue.
  5. I cant see it, an El Nino has never been declared in January, and the SOI strength atm is enough to tell you that you can use all of the tools in the cupboard, none of them make sense right now. The QBO reversal, IMO, in February 2016 was the beginning of a very different weather period, what normally happens with La Nina and El Nino events is totally off in different places, and around the whole globe as well. When I look at the pressure charts above, massive alarm bells go off, especially at the Poles, as does the strength of the MJO at the moment. There is no way this will change whilst tra
  6. great post Great post, the most important aspect of this is the differential of the actual SSTs, and not the anomalies. As this year has evolved, it's clear to me that the Walker circulation will not connect this El Nino because the 5 degree difference between the WPAC and the EPAC. And this may explain why every time it looks like we might get some increase, the trades pick up and cool Nino 3.4 again. Which is why with every move of the CHI 200 to the Atlantic either doesn't come off in the forecasts, or if it does, it splinters and still leaves upward motion near the Maritime contine
  7. I am not so sure about this, one thing is for sure is the models are really struggling. Since May, all of the models continue to try to place the CHI 200 away from the Maritime Continent and into the Atlantic, and only for one period in September did it actually become real, and Australia had a very dry month. The JMA had many weeks where it also took the CHI 200 East into the Americas only to fail, and it would end up right back where we started. So this year I have been focusing more on actual water temps rather than anomalies. It is hard to see how the upward motion would consol
  8. Hi Snowy, no I forecast for all of Australia, and used to post on WZ in Australia, so you should be able to work out who I am. I have followed you and others on WZ for years but don't post there anymore. Love the technical side of meteorolgy, and the challenge of new theories and being able to test them in real time. My personal belief is that we have not yet recovered from the QBO reversal in Feb 2016 and our weather still remains a little disjointed. Given its one of those things with records back to 1960 it is a significant occurrence. So looking forward to contributing my thoug
  9. Hi all, I just wanted to say what an awesome site this is, as a forecaster myself running a private weather forecasting service, this was an amazing read, and has so much resource tools that are hard to find. Having the legendary JB on board is also fantastic, I have been following him for well over a decade. Thanks again for a fantastic forum.
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