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Everything posted by Tee47

  1. I agree with this, how can models have different initialisation points to start with?
  2. Yep thats correct, and what I was pointing out. Interesting times.
  3. In Australia we are setting up for something totally different, which was my point, it's playing out differently all over the globe IMO.
  4. Yes I do tend to agree with that, my point was that in the past AAM, QBO, MJO and other teleconnections behave totally differently to what we are currently seeing. And I am thinking its the warmth left over form 2015, and extra water vapour from 2015 that is the issue.
  5. I cant see it, an El Nino has never been declared in January, and the SOI strength atm is enough to tell you that you can use all of the tools in the cupboard, none of them make sense right now. The QBO reversal, IMO, in February 2016 was the beginning of a very different weather period, what normally happens with La Nina and El Nino events is totally off in different places, and around the whole globe as well. When I look at the pressure charts above, massive alarm bells go off, especially at the Poles, as does the strength of the MJO at the moment. There is no way this will change whilst trade winds are strengthening as they have been, and if the ITCZ makes its way into the Indian Ocean then I think we ware going to see an abrupt shift into a La Nina at the end of 2019. To me the warming in the Pacific has 1 more month, the Westerlies have not progressed past Nino 4 in the last 3 months, and as such the SOI is now 4.50 for the 90 day average. That rules the BOM out, and should rule NOAA out too, and in turn, won't allow the Pacific to continue warming, and cooling is about to commence. JB is right, extra water vapour is not allowing anything to set up, we will need a big and strong event either way to fix it, right now we have a climate that is out of sync. All fo the indicators on this thread show which way we should be going, yet it can't get it done, and the subsurface is now rapidly losing heat as the trades churn through the warm water. It's a great time to be alive, the next year or two will be extremely interesting to see if we can get the weather patterns back to some sort of normal, because as it stands now, we could not be any further away from normal.
  6. great post Great post, the most important aspect of this is the differential of the actual SSTs, and not the anomalies. As this year has evolved, it's clear to me that the Walker circulation will not connect this El Nino because the 5 degree difference between the WPAC and the EPAC. And this may explain why every time it looks like we might get some increase, the trades pick up and cool Nino 3.4 again. Which is why with every move of the CHI 200 to the Atlantic either doesn't come off in the forecasts, or if it does, it splinters and still leaves upward motion near the Maritime continent. And what it also reinforces to me is how important a role the atmosphere plays, it is front running this event as it did in 2009. Here in Australia, in 2009 we had the El Nino weather in the first 9 or 10 months of the year, and then we saw huge rains and lower pressures from then on, despite a very nice warm Pacific Basin, and moderate El Nino. This year is almost playing out similar, which is why I wasn't surprised when I saw JB say 09/10 was a similar analog, along with others on twitter as well. And then now we are seeing the AAM sinking fast into the negatives, so if it stays that way for a fortnight it might produce a stronger forcing that pushes the South Pacific Convergence Zone onto the Maritime Continent, which is a bit of a stretch but an early season cyclone getting close to Australia is nothing like an El Nino here locally. And that should keep the pressures down enough to keep trades going to stop this connection happening. Which is why the models now see the CHI 200 heavily over the Maritime Continent again later next weekend. So IMO the atmosphere is actually the most important part of this whole set up, and if we look at other failed Nino years, I suspect it might be the same. Would be fascinating to see archived AAM and GWO charts, which are hard to find, and see what role they played, in the 2012 and 2014 events.
  7. I am not so sure about this, one thing is for sure is the models are really struggling. Since May, all of the models continue to try to place the CHI 200 away from the Maritime Continent and into the Atlantic, and only for one period in September did it actually become real, and Australia had a very dry month. The JMA had many weeks where it also took the CHI 200 East into the Americas only to fail, and it would end up right back where we started. So this year I have been focusing more on actual water temps rather than anomalies. It is hard to see how the upward motion would consolidate over an area that 25 degrees, whilst the West pacific, and the Maritime Continent have waters between 29 and 31 degrees Celsius. My theory is the climate models all have an El Nino forecast, and its playing havoc with the short term versions of their models. And I think the clue is the SOI, attached, it has not been able to take hold, even in weak El Nino years we have seen a run of 4 - 6 months with the SOI in the minus territory. This year has been bang on neutral, up and down like the proverbial. Also attached is the 200 VV maps from the SH winter of 1997, showing the set up for El Nino takes hold a long time before the event. At no stage this year have we seen anything like this. And I think JB is right, its water vapour that is playing havoc with this, it appears to be not allowing the atmosphere to do what it normally would do, its having a big impact on the weather at present. All interesting stuff, and like everyone I will wait and see if this JMA forecast comes off, because at the moment I doubt it will.
  8. Hi Snowy, no I forecast for all of Australia, and used to post on WZ in Australia, so you should be able to work out who I am. I have followed you and others on WZ for years but don't post there anymore. Love the technical side of meteorolgy, and the challenge of new theories and being able to test them in real time. My personal belief is that we have not yet recovered from the QBO reversal in Feb 2016 and our weather still remains a little disjointed. Given its one of those things with records back to 1960 it is a significant occurrence. So looking forward to contributing my thoughts and reading yours.
  9. Hi all, I just wanted to say what an awesome site this is, as a forecaster myself running a private weather forecasting service, this was an amazing read, and has so much resource tools that are hard to find. Having the legendary JB on board is also fantastic, I have been following him for well over a decade. Thanks again for a fantastic forum.
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