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About burgwx

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    Tomer Burg

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    Albany, NY

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  1. Done! Near classic I-95 snow axis, minus DC where I only found amounts in the 3-4" range. There were a couple of isolated 20-23" reports in NJ & western Long Island, with a 23.3" report in Westfield, NJ.
  2. I have daily snow data downloaded back to 1985 - quickly parsing through my dataset the only major NE snowstorm (including the tri-state area) on Christmas day I found was 2002. Of course there's a couple of notable post-Christmas snowstorms (2012, 2010), near misses (2004 to the east) and Christmas eve snowstorms (2017). 1993 looks like it had some light snow in NNJ on Christmas.
  3. That's one of my favorite go-to sites for such archives - definitely a great resource for all sorts of synoptic maps and radar images of various storms. The only issue is as I've noticed since moving to Albany is that it doesn't list storms that didn't affect NJ, which initially drove me to start my own archive to pick out analogs for Albany storms before I expanded it to all Northeast storms. For instance the 1/4/2003 storm (which produced widespread 12-24"+ amounts in the interior Northeast) isn't on his list and is one of my candidates for a case study.
  4. Thanks! I'm glad to share these - I want this data to be easily accessible, and this is a good place to share it for input & additional storms to add. I'm currently working on a couple other big events (Presidents Day 2003, 1/27/2011, Boston's 2015 blizzards), but I don't remember *every* major snow event that's worthy of addition.
  5. Some of you may be aware of my recent work in contouring high resolution snow analyses for past and recent snowstorms in the Northeast. My goal is to construct a dataset of snow events in the Northeast, both for major snowstorms and especially for events that had notable impact but failed to reach NESIS category 1 threshold. These are all contoured by hand and constructed using an aggregate of data sources (ASOS, CoCoRAHS, COOP, NWS public storm reports), and are QC'd compared to surrounding observations and regional radar to ensure a sufficient emphasis of mesoscale features without incorpora
  6. That I'm not sure of unfortunately. The current GEFS reforecast only has 11 members so adding more members only makes sense, but there is a point at which for a well calibrated ensemble adding more members doesn't necessarily increase the dispersiveness, so I'm not sure if they'd add many more members than what the operational GEFS currently has. The EPS is a generally well calibrated ensemble, though it's designed to increase dispersiveness in the medium range and can have short term weaknesses.
  7. Glad to help! I've been admittedly paying more attention to plans for an FV3-based reforecast ensemble (essentially using a static version of the model - the latest version - to run ensembles back once a day back to 1985) as it pertains more to my research, which I do know is in the works and will likely have more ensemble members, but a daily ensemble run is essentially useless for real-time purposes. It'll be interesting to see if an FV3 ensemble improves on the GEFS' underdispersive bias - for instance with today's cyclone, the ensemble members were clustered around an incorrect
  8. By para gfs I'm assuming you are referring to the GFS-FV3 - in which case there are FV3-based ensembles running but not publicly available to my knowledge, as it's not listed on ncep's parallel nomads server. There are plans to make an FV3-based ensemble operational eventually, but I'm not sure if they're changing the perturbation technique or the number of ensemble members as well.
  9. Awesome stuff! Unfortunately I don't recall too many specific details leading up to the event as I was in Albany with depressing 9F overcast, but I recently made an analyzed snow map for this event using an aggregate of data sources (e.g., public storm reports, CoCoRAHS, COOP, ASOS) as part of a side project I am working on, which has more detail than the NESIS map which is purely interpolated and apparently lacking in observations near the outer periphery of the accumulating snow swath. Feel free to use this map if you want to. After looking at the radar loop for this event I'll a
  10. Thanks! Still lurking right now haha. Lots of good threads to read through like this one...
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