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burgwx

Meteorologist
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About burgwx

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    Tomer Burg

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    Albany, NY

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  1. burgwx

    Northeast U.S. Archived Snowstorm Maps

    Done! Near classic I-95 snow axis, minus DC where I only found amounts in the 3-4" range. There were a couple of isolated 20-23" reports in NJ & western Long Island, with a 23.3" report in Westfield, NJ.
  2. I have daily snow data downloaded back to 1985 - quickly parsing through my dataset the only major NE snowstorm (including the tri-state area) on Christmas day I found was 2002. Of course there's a couple of notable post-Christmas snowstorms (2012, 2010), near misses (2004 to the east) and Christmas eve snowstorms (2017). 1993 looks like it had some light snow in NNJ on Christmas.
  3. burgwx

    Northeast U.S. Archived Snowstorm Maps

    That's one of my favorite go-to sites for such archives - definitely a great resource for all sorts of synoptic maps and radar images of various storms. The only issue is as I've noticed since moving to Albany is that it doesn't list storms that didn't affect NJ, which initially drove me to start my own archive to pick out analogs for Albany storms before I expanded it to all Northeast storms. For instance the 1/4/2003 storm (which produced widespread 12-24"+ amounts in the interior Northeast) isn't on his list and is one of my candidates for a case study.
  4. burgwx

    Northeast U.S. Archived Snowstorm Maps

    Thanks! I'm glad to share these - I want this data to be easily accessible, and this is a good place to share it for input & additional storms to add. I'm currently working on a couple other big events (Presidents Day 2003, 1/27/2011, Boston's 2015 blizzards), but I don't remember *every* major snow event that's worthy of addition.
  5. Some of you may be aware of my recent work in contouring high resolution snow analyses for past and recent snowstorms in the Northeast. My goal is to construct a dataset of snow events in the Northeast, both for major snowstorms and especially for events that had notable impact but failed to reach NESIS category 1 threshold. These are all contoured by hand and constructed using an aggregate of data sources (ASOS, CoCoRAHS, COOP, NWS public storm reports), and are QC'd compared to surrounding observations and regional radar to ensure a sufficient emphasis of mesoscale features without incorporating outlier data. For regions with high terrain and limited snow data, I use a correlation of nearby snow amounts vs. elevation as well as what the typical correlation is for the predominant wind direction during the event. It's obviously not 100% exact for every location, but I try to ensure quality for these analyses. I've been asked several times recently to publish these maps, so I made them publicly available in a link on my website that can be accessed under the "Real-Time Data" tab. This link is a temporary placeholder for these maps until I can organize a more proper page design - the next stage of this project currently in progress is plotting synoptic maps of numerous variables using the ERA5 reanalysis (0.25 degree resolution). Some of these maps are outdated and use my previous methodology (less data availability, NOHRSC analysis to fill in missing data, and 2km resolution dataset of elevation compared to my current 500m resolution dataset), especially for 2010-2012 and parts of 2017-2018, but I'm gradually redoing those with my new methodology. I have quite a bit of events going back to 2001 so far, and some additional events I have data for, but I'm also taking requests for additional maps to make maps of. It will take some time to get to all of the requests as this is a side project after all - my current preoccupation is with completing my Master's thesis. I can go back to at least the 1940s, but the data availability is much larger from about 2000 onwards. Here's the link to the website: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/snow/ I also attached one of the maps I recently made as a sample (Christmas 2002 snowstorm):
  6. That I'm not sure of unfortunately. The current GEFS reforecast only has 11 members so adding more members only makes sense, but there is a point at which for a well calibrated ensemble adding more members doesn't necessarily increase the dispersiveness, so I'm not sure if they'd add many more members than what the operational GEFS currently has. The EPS is a generally well calibrated ensemble, though it's designed to increase dispersiveness in the medium range and can have short term weaknesses.
  7. Glad to help! I've been admittedly paying more attention to plans for an FV3-based reforecast ensemble (essentially using a static version of the model - the latest version - to run ensembles back once a day back to 1985) as it pertains more to my research, which I do know is in the works and will likely have more ensemble members, but a daily ensemble run is essentially useless for real-time purposes. It'll be interesting to see if an FV3 ensemble improves on the GEFS' underdispersive bias - for instance with today's cyclone, the ensemble members were clustered around an incorrect solution ~120 miles too far northwest at 36 hour lead time. My Master's research is focused on analyzing a long term climatology of forecast track & intensity biases for NE US cyclones, and this left of track error is above the 75th percentile for a 36-hour forecast. Meanwhile the FV3 had a much smaller track error, although it also had a consistent right bias compared to the GFS for the 11/15 storm so it remains to be seen how well it performs this winter.
  8. By para gfs I'm assuming you are referring to the GFS-FV3 - in which case there are FV3-based ensembles running but not publicly available to my knowledge, as it's not listed on ncep's parallel nomads server. There are plans to make an FV3-based ensemble operational eventually, but I'm not sure if they're changing the perturbation technique or the number of ensemble members as well.
  9. burgwx

    burgwx

  10. burgwx

    Blizzard of 2016 Analysis

    Awesome stuff! Unfortunately I don't recall too many specific details leading up to the event as I was in Albany with depressing 9F overcast, but I recently made an analyzed snow map for this event using an aggregate of data sources (e.g., public storm reports, CoCoRAHS, COOP, ASOS) as part of a side project I am working on, which has more detail than the NESIS map which is purely interpolated and apparently lacking in observations near the outer periphery of the accumulating snow swath. Feel free to use this map if you want to. After looking at the radar loop for this event I'll add that this was also associated with a classic pivoting snow band, per a Master's thesis research by Kenyon (2013) and various papers by Novak et al. which classified snow bands into various types and created centered composites for each. Most of the largest snowstorms have a pivoting band configuration like this event in conjunction with a slow-moving cyclone. Unfortunately I wasn't able to find cross-sections of this band, but I bet the collocation of the strongest ascent above the sloped fgen axis & nearby region of weak moist symmetric stability would be classic...
  11. burgwx

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Thanks! Still lurking right now haha. Lots of good threads to read through like this one...
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