The gfs has been flopping around with the NAO positioning, this run was more east based thumb ridge vs closed cell west based. Consistent look right now is while a 50/50 (close to it) was trapped in place, it's not extending its influence far enough west so gfs lacks confluent flow where we need it in E Canada. the PV is too far west at that point to compress heights. consistent look for now is ridging up the EC in advance of that system thus a warmer look.
epo perking up nicely to set the stage down the road.